How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Fenris]

Article detailing some analysis used to determine RU KIA, putting the figure at ~50,000

Ukraine war has killed 50,000 Russians, independent data analysis suggests

[Kinophile]

LMAO

 

 

[Carolus]

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/de/publikationen/medieninformationen/2023/ukraine-support-tracker-neue-hilfszusagen-trotz-militaeroffensive-auf-niedrigem-niveau/

 

A publication by a German institute for world economics. I do not have the time to translate large passages (maybe an online translator can help for those who are interested) but I would like to mention the main points:

- they claim there is a significant difference between pledged equipment deliveries and actual equipment deliveries for Ukraine

- the biggest differences can be found in deliveries from the USA and Western Europoean countries: only about 50% of pledged weapons and equipment actually has arrived in Ukraine

- the smallest difference can be found in deliveries from Eastern European countries: about 80% of pledged weapons and equipment has actually arrived

- overall, despite pledges for bigger deliveries of equipment, the amount of equipment which has arrived in Ukraine in 2023 is significantly lower compared to comparable time periods in 2022

 

As to my knowledge, the institute in Kiel is not known for strong political biases and is considered generally reliable. Of course, that does not mean their publications are necessarily correct in all matters, I just wanted to mention that they do not the the reputation of being of being a strongly partisan entity.

[Aragorn2002]

Green light from Erdogan for Sweden to join NATO. 

Excellent, welcome, Sweden.

[Aragorn2002]

10 hours ago, DesertFox said:

LOL!

 

 

LOL!

[MikeyD]

13 minutes ago, Carolus said:

the biggest differences can be found in deliveries from the USA and Western Europoean countries:

I recall awhile back hearing US and Europe was having the small problem of pulling out equipment from storage, expecting to quickly hand it over to Ukraine, only to be shocked by its dilapidated state. Then comes the repair and refurbishment and parts replacement before they can hand it over, greatly extending delivery times. That applies to everything from Humvees to M777s and much else.

[DesertFox]

One less. Confirmation pending.

Today, in the south, in the Berdyansk region, the Russian Lieutenant General Tsokov Oleg Yuriyovych was eliminated reportedly.

 

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1678674695678205952?s=20

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1678658079917834240?s=20

Edited July 11, 2023 by DesertFox

[Der Zeitgeist]

1 hour ago, Carolus said:

- the biggest differences can be found in deliveries from the USA and Western Europoean countries: only about 50% of pledged weapons and equipment actually has arrived in Ukraine

- the smallest difference can be found in deliveries from Eastern European countries: about 80% of pledged weapons and equipment has actually arrived

That's not surprising.

US & Western Europe sent a lot of equipment that needs extensive training and preparation before it can be shipped, so the time between announcing a particular system for Ukraine and delivering it will be quite high.

Eastern Europe sent a lot of former Soviet equipment that needs little or no training, so deliveries can be done much faster.

[Aragorn2002]

17 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

That's not surprising.

US & Western Europe sent a lot of equipment that needs extensive training and preparation before it can be shipped, so the time between announcing a particular system for Ukraine and delivering it will be quite high.

Eastern Europe sent a lot of former Soviet equipment that needs little or no training, so deliveries can be done much faster.

Yep, as simple as that. +1

Another important point is that the European Union  reimburses Poland for a large part the costs of arms it's donating to Ukraine. We're talking about hundreds and hundreds of millions Euro here. 

So all is relative, isn't it?

 

Edited July 11, 2023 by Aragorn2002

[Der Zeitgeist]

12 hours ago, masc said:

A new one for the list?

According to Ukraine, this was the submarine commander responsible for the missile strike on Vinnytsia, almost exactly a year ago.

You might remember the picture of of the baby stroller with little feet sticking out of it.

[Butschi]

2 hours ago, MikeyD said:

I recall awhile back hearing US and Europe was having the small problem of pulling out equipment from storage, expecting to quickly hand it over to Ukraine, only to be shocked by its dilapidated state. Then comes the repair and refurbishment and parts replacement before they can hand it over, greatly extending delivery times. That applies to everything from Humvees to M777s and much else.

This. I remember many of Leopards being in a bad shape. In addition some of the stuff pledged wasn't even produced at the time they were pledged. I think Iris-T is an example where the systems were pledged in advance.

This is not a case of Western Europeans and US dragging their feet.

[Aragorn2002]

43 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

According to Ukraine, this was the submarine commander responsible for the missile strike on Vinnytsia, almost exactly a year ago.

You might remember the picture of of the baby stroller with little feet sticking out of it.

What a beautiful day.

[Carolus]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Yep, as simple as that. +1

Another important point is that the European Union  reimburses Poland for a large part the costs of arms it's donating to Ukraine. We're talking about hundreds and hundreds of millions Euro here. 

So all is relative, isn't it?

 

I don't think it was meant to be a dig at Western EU + USA slacking vs the East EU being better.

I think it is a nice reminder that whatever AFU has available to them now for battlefield usage is actually not even what has been pledged to them months ago. 

Heartbreaking, though, because every delay costs Ukrainian blood.

A pro pos blood. Apparently a big problem is lack of blood for medical purposes in Ukraine. As a healthy male with plenty of juicy A+, which is the most common blood type, I was looking at ways to contribute, but I found no way yet from my locality.

It is apparently hard to transport blood over long distances and a big problem is actually lack of equipment to draw blood in Ukraine. 

Edited July 11, 2023 by Carolus
typos

[DesertFox]

More Storm Shadows / SCALP EG from France

 

and material worth 600mio EUR from Germany including:

2 Patriot SAM launchers + surface-to-air missiles

25 Leopard 1A5 tanks

40 Marder 1A3 IFVs

20.000 artillery shells

Leopard tank shells

5.000 smoke shells

5 BREM Bergepanzer 2

Recon drones and anti-drone systems

 

 

Edited July 11, 2023 by DesertFox

[Offshoot]

A short vid on the Deep State maps, the team behind them, and their use

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

On 7/3/2023 at 1:05 PM, Butschi said:

To be fair, the article is a bit confusing. It says that PZG, the Polish company involved, was charging these fantasy prices. In the next paragraph it goes on saying that this is PiS trying to score for the upcoming election. However it neglects to say how exactly that works.

OK, some more detailed information re this has surfaced via Wolski, who seems well connected in the industry and politically neutral. Obviously he presents the Polish perspective.

What he describes looks like the negotiations not going forward for commercial reasons. The Poles preferred to do the repairs at one of the existing plants within the current structure of PGZ and its subsidiaries. The Germans wanted to set up a joint venture with operational control over some crucial business areas belonging  to the Germans (possibly due to the same issues about who controls the know how which surfaced during PZH 2000 servicing negotiations), also they wanted to use a location which was inconvenient from the perspective of PGZ's plans to work on K2. At this stage it looks like neither company wants to close the deal, but to shift the blame for unsuccessful negotiations to the other. So the Poles put forward a deliberately unattractive price quote, and the Germans responded with the theory about Polish political motives.

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

OK, some more detailed information re this has surfaced via Wolski, who seems well connected in the industry and politically neutral. Obviously he presents the Polish perspective.

What he describes looks like the negotiations not going forward for commercial reasons. The Poles preferred to do the repairs at one of the existing plants within the current structure of PGZ and its subsidiaries. The Germans wanted to set up a joint venture with operational control over some crucial business areas belonging  to the Germans (possibly due to the same issues about who controls the know how which surfaced during PZH 2000 servicing negotiations), also they wanted to use a location which was inconvenient from the perspective of PGZ's plans to work on K2. At this stage it looks like neither company wants to close the deal, but to shift the blame for unsuccessful negotiations to the other. So the Poles put forward a deliberately unattractive price quote, and the Germans responded with the theory about Polish political motives.

Crazy. IMHO there is zero need for this joint venture bull**** and a new hub, because the poles were servicing their own Leo2s before perfectly fine without any help. Now they can service the UAF Leo2s also there at that place and get paid for that by german gov. What the heck is the problem? Dont get it. Do the german gov say they only pay for UAF Leo2s service if condition a) and b) ist met? If they want the conditions a) and b) met, they need to pay extra for it.

[Haiduk]

16 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Bad but definitely not as bad as a month ago. Cannot tell right away that the operation failed or failed to a minefield 

Geolocation - about 1 km NE from Robotyne. Presumably video of 2-3 days ago, when there were Russian TG messages that UKR forces outflank Robotyne and seized several positions of 70th or 71st regiments. At the same time they reported about destroyed western armor. 

Today press-service of 47th mech.brigade claimed UKR troops captured some "command heights"

 

[Haiduk]

Russian S-400 launcher, 92N6E radar and KAMAZ supply truck were destroyed with HIMARS strike. It's claimed exactly this launcher hit pizzeria in Kramatorsk. Russian sources tell about 3 KIA.

 

[TheVulture]

5 hours ago, DesertFox said:

One less. Confirmation pending.

Today, in the south, in the Berdyansk region, the Russian Lieutenant General Tsokov Oleg Yuriyovych was eliminated reportedly.

 

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1678674695678205952?s=20

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1678658079917834240?s=20

Also confirmed on pro-Russian Telegram milinfolive:

 https://t.me/milinfolive/103396

As a result of the strike by the British Storm Shadow cruise missiles on the ZKP of the 58th Army in the Berdyansk region, the deputy commander of the Southern Military District, Lieutenant General Oleg Tsokov, was killed.

Edited July 11, 2023 by TheVulture

[Haiduk]

On 7/10/2023 at 4:25 PM, Fenris said:

Weren't these guys being sent to the Zaporizhia front as well? A week or two ago?

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1678304702209851393

Name "Akhmat" (name of Ramzan Kadyrov father) have several Kadyrov's units with different subordination - MoD, Rosgvardiya, Chechen Special Police: Akhmat-West/South/Central etc. Also there is Special forces unit "Akhmat", which is a unofficial PMC - when all other "Akhmats" have almost only Chechens among personnel, that this "SOF" has mostly Chechen comamnders, but a personnel from different regions of Russia.  

Edited July 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

18 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Also confirmed on pro-Russian Telegram milinfolive:

 https://t.me/milinfolive/103396

As a result of the strike by the British Storm Shadow cruise missiles on the ZKP of the 58th Army in the Berdyansk region, the deputy commander of the Southern Military District, Lieutenant General Oleg Tsokov, was killed.

I just add other Russian TG confirmation with interest details about Storm Shadow

Tsokov has died really. It's Storm Shadow strike. Except one failed and self-destroyed missile our AD is not capable to shot down its in present time. No matter what milbloggers and Konashenkov come up with 

Edited July 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[Butschi]

56 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Crazy. IMHO there is zero need for this joint venture bull**** and a new hub, because the poles were servicing their own Leo2s before perfectly fine without any help. Now they can service the UAF Leo2s also there at that place and get paid for that by german gov. What the heck is the problem? Dont get it. Do the german gov say they only pay for UAF Leo2s service if condition a) and b) ist met? If they want the conditions a) and b) met, they need to pay extra for it.

Do you think things were different if we were talking about M1s instead of Leo2s? Do you really think the US government would say "The Poles are perfectly able to service their M1s, we'll just give them our taxpayers' money instead of letting it flow back to US companies."?

These deals are always made in a way that supports domestic economy.

[Haiduk]

Reportedly new Storm Shadow strikes took place this morning:

Berdiansk spit - the hotel "Dune" was hit. In local TG chats writes about helicoipter activity and many ambulance cars, driving to Berdiansk

 

Second strike was on grain elevator in Novooleksiivka, near Henichesk, Kherson oblast. Reportedly huge detotation and fire. Collaborators administration called locals to evacuate from the town.

Russian TGs confirmed the strike on ammo dump

On the photo - the fire in Novooleksiivka

Edited July 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

6 hours ago, DesertFox said:

One less. Confirmation pending.

Today, in the south, in the Berdyansk region, the Russian Lieutenant General Tsokov Oleg Yuriyovych was eliminated reportedly.

 

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1678674695678205952?s=20

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1678658079917834240?s=20

Tsokov had a duty of deputy commander of Southern Military District