How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

Certainly the Russians i front of them are. There is a Russian engineering unit out there that needs a HIMARS visitation.

[dan/california]

https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4051618-invite-ukraine-to-join-nato-now/

 

[billbindc]

11 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Follow up…ok, I think I have got the only solution that makes any sense: Putin and Prig are in love but cannot admit it to each other or themselves.  Only a rom-com scenario makes any sense in what we have seen - hear me out (and yes I am sober as I type this) 

Prog and Putin have known each other for years - him a working class ex-con trying to go straight, Putin a golden haired princess who is so lonely at the top.  They have been sharing stolen glances and smiles for years but neither has the courage…their worlds are too far apart.  Prig is desperate to get Putin to really see him, instead of a boom box outside in the rain he rolls up to Moscow with T90s and MLRS.  It was a romantic gesture of the highest order.  A demonstration of power and masculinity while being vulnerable at the same time.

Putin, like a sexy fox, flees to St Petersburg to hold up with a couple girlfriends…he can’t cope with all this - it is too much too fast.  He is into Prig but the man is both intoxicating and terrifying.  Putin throws out threats but he really does not mean them, inside his heart is pounding - should he?  He mustn’t.  He is so confused right now.  Should he call in airstrikes or run out on the M4 into his man’s arms?

Prig is wailing into the night with an electric guitar (and AD systems), he in love so hard it hurts.  He bashes out With or Without You by U2…Russia holds it breath while the two star crossed lovers both in love and hate ant the same time.  They resent each other for making that love that threatens to consume them.  Finally Lushenko, a girlfriend to both from way back I the day talks them both off the ledge - “you are both love struck fools, stop now before you say something you cannot take back!”

Prig realizes it first.  Putin is a fox to be lured and must feel in control.  Prig has come on too strong.  He dials it back, goes back to the dorm and tells all the guys “he totally scored” but inside he is tortured by the waiting game.  

Putin has fooled himself that he is back in charge but deep inside knows it is too late.  He says strong words but everyone at work knows the truth - FFS would they just do it already.  Their love is self-destructive and wholly doomed but neither can look away - it is a storm that must happen….to be continued.

I feel soiled.

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, billbindc said:

I feel soiled.

[billbindc]

55 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Shoigu & Gerasimov?

Neither, I think. We've already seen Shoigu and there's no word yet on Gerasimov other than rumors that he got dead drunk when this went down. 

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Neither, I think. We've already seen Shoigu and there's no word yet on Gerasimov other than rumors that he got dead drunk when this went down. 

Ukraine should have done a thunder run on Moscow. They would have taken the place in eighteen hours. 

[dan/california]

Somebody really wanted this tank to burn...

[cesmonkey]

 

[Doc844]

In regards to Prigs coup there is one play that hasn't been mentioned yet.  The possibility that Prig expected Putin to be dead or imprisoned.  So he took Rostov, then a column of wagner went on their thunder run to Moscow.  Maybe his co-conspiritors had promised that Putin would be out of the picture by then, but Putin exited stage left and fled to his bunker and they missed their chance.  Then they all lost their bottle.

 

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, DesertFox said:

As per the twitter account:

Thanks. 

[FancyCat]

 

[cesmonkey]

Perhaps the Six Days in Fallujah developers can be persuaded to make a game about the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Or maybe they shouldn't?

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[danfrodo]

Good news from the front, at least.  Dnieper bridgehead intact and expanding, Rivnopil taken, and RU TV says Bakhmut will soon fall -- such irony.  But the best news is UK assessment says RU has already deployed its reserves and has nothing left.  Let's hope this is true, as it would mean a breakout could happen.  The dang mines sound like hell on earth but even those are finite in depth. 

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/26/2177777/-Ukraine-update-While-Russia-falls-apart-Ukraine-makes-progress-on-the-frontlines

 

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Follow up…ok, I think I have got the only solution that makes any sense: Putin and Prig are in love but cannot admit it to each other or themselves.  Only a rom-com scenario makes any sense in what we have seen - hear me out (and yes I am sober as I type this) 

Prog and Putin have known each other for years - him a working class ex-con trying to go straight, Putin a golden haired princess who is so lonely at the top.  They have been sharing stolen glances and smiles for years but neither has the courage…their worlds are too far apart.  Prig is desperate to get Putin to really see him, instead of a boom box outside in the rain he rolls up to Moscow with T90s and MLRS.  It was a romantic gesture of the highest order.  A demonstration of power and masculinity while being vulnerable at the same time.

Putin, like a sexy fox, flees to St Petersburg to hold up with a couple girlfriends…he can’t cope with all this - it is too much too fast.  He is into Prig but the man is both intoxicating and terrifying.  Putin throws out threats but he really does not mean them, inside his heart is pounding - should he?  He mustn’t.  He is so confused right now.  Should he call in airstrikes or run out on the M4 into his man’s arms?

Prig is wailing into the night with an electric guitar (and AD systems), he in love so hard it hurts.  He bashes out With or Without You by U2…Russia holds it breath while the two star crossed lovers both in love and hate ant the same time.  They resent each other for making that love that threatens to consume them.  Finally Lushenko, a girlfriend to both from way back I the day talks them both off the ledge - “you are both love struck fools, stop now before you say something you cannot take back!”

Prig realizes it first.  Putin is a fox to be lured and must feel in control.  Prig has come on too strong.  He dials it back, goes back to the dorm and tells all the guys “he totally scored” but inside he is tortured by the waiting game.  

Putin has fooled himself that he is back in charge but deep inside knows it is too late.  He says strong words but everyone at work knows the truth - FFS would they just do it already.  Their love is self-destructive and wholly doomed but neither can look away - it is a storm that must happen….to be continued.

(rest of strip)

[kevinkin]

27 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Dnieper bridgehead intact and expanding,

Here is more on UA actions posted today:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-breakthrough-across-the-dnipro-at-antonvosky-bridge

 

[kluge]

A look at the weekend's events from Tim Snyder, who wrote the piece last year envisioning a similar scenario

https://snyder.substack.com/p/prigozhins-march-on-moscow

Edited June 27, 2023 by kluge
Edit: Added in summary

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

If Putin had clearly won this round, there are things you would be seeing and things you wouldn't: 

Yup, and add to this a couple I pointed out the other day.  The most important of which are:

1.  No evidence of FSB raids on co-conspirators in urban areas.  I'm not just talking about the ones Prig must have had behind the scenes, but the call from Prig for vets and his recruiting centers to rise up is reason enough for FSB to kick in some doors.  No doubt they were monitoring people before this and post-coup anybody that even said "I'll think about it" gets punished.  Cripes, look at what happened in Turkey and that is (kinda) a democracy.

2.  Conspirators fleeing the country, going into hiding, etc. before they get caught up in security sweeps.  Instead, the ones we KNOW are in on it and KNOW are on FSB's radar (bloggers in particular) are still doing what they do.

3.  The voice of the conspirators is not silenced in any way.  FSB has the ability to switch off their coms at any time even if they elect not to kick in doors.  Trying to silence internet savvy voices would, of course, be difficult and we'd know about it even if certain accounts went dark.  In the immortal words of Mr. Universe, "you can't stop the signal".

There's others I might have thought about and listed off the other day, but combine this batch with the batch you just posted and it's clear that Prig did not lose.  He's still very much in the game.

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

All of this screams continued instability and factional deal making with Putin in the center trying to come to grips with his straitened circumstances. If I had to guess from the looks at that table, Putin is trying to order a purge and finding out that he simply can't order it. His flunkies can agree but they don't think the ranks will follow through. And if that happens, a lot of elements will come off the sidelines.

I agree.  There's a stalemate going on right now where all either side can do is posture.  If Prig had lost all the things we noted that are not happening would be happening.  They are also the sort of things we would definitely know about.

 

Therefore, as I said in my previous post, I'm downgrading Mr. Prig & Company from a "Probable Win" to "Not a Loss".  And in the spirit of CM's asymmetrical victory conditions, I'm sticking with "Definite Loss" for Mr. Putin.  There's no way he's going to come out of this with any sort of thing that could be called a "win" even if Prig doesn't wind up doing as well as he had hoped.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I really try to avoid getting pulled too deeply into conspiracies.  In my experience humans, while capable of complex and intricate plans within plans involving many players, more often lean into far simpler and lazy calculus - despite what Hollywood and the Internet say.

Totally agree.  Even when there are complexities in the details, the overall plot usually is quite simple.  Here's how I'm boiling this down for people who want only the high level view:

Putin's regime has been on the rocks for years and has been getting progressively worse.  Some are concerned about the direction, mostly because they fear their own personal power/wealth is in jeopardy while others are nationalists who think Russia should be rising instead of falling.  Putin has increasingly taken measures to limit these people from influencing policy, even in the backrooms of the Kremlin.

Russia is a powder keg and everybody in power knows it.  For all his faults, Putin's regime is keeping Russia from blowing up.  Those that have something to gain from his removal likely have far more to lose if his removal goes sideways.  Thanks to their inaction over many years, the chances of it going sideways have increased over time.  This poses a conundrum for the power blocs because the worse things get the more likely doing something about it will result in the thing they fear the most... collapse of the entire status quo.

The war changed the calculations of the power blocs.  Putin made it impossible to ignore how bad things are because he made them exponentially worse.  As time has gone on it's become clearer that as bad as they think thinks are now, Putin has a knack of make it worse.  So they finally decided to act.

Prig was part of a conspiracy of powerful interests that have, essentially, decided the risk of action is lower than inaction. They plotted, they took action, something went wrong with the conspiracy's plan, and they had to call off the overt action.  However, enough of the plan went favorably that the challengers at least achieved a stalemate.

Where we find ourselves now is Putin and his challengers have agreed upon a ceasefire (of sorts) because both sides are petrified that further conflict might trigger events out of their control, such as a civil war.  As part of this cease fire, The conspirators stopped overt challenge to Putin's authority and Putin is not taking any punitive action against them.  They are now negotiating deep in the basements of the Kremlin about how to find an arrangement that each side can live with that avoids a power vacuum and all that comes with it.  Putin is furious, but it seems he understands he has to negotiate or it's game over for him.

That's it in a nutshell.  When viewed in this way it is super simple and quite boringly routine.  We see these sorts of things everywhere in Human existence, including such mundane things as divorces.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

 

I am happy to see this, but at this point it's moot.  Russia can't even stop 5000 angry mercenaries.  I'm now wondering if Estonia's Defense League could take St. Petersburg in an afternoon and keep it indefinitely.

Instead, Germany's decision to base 4000 troops in the Baltics permanently is a sign of a long term commitment by Germany for the longer term security of NATO's most vulnerable members.

Good.  We need some long term stuff being put in motion and not just short term.

Steve

[Grigb]

16 hours ago, Yet said:

Patrusev is also 70+. Dyumin is also FSB, GRU and now Mod right? 

I can't speak anything about Dyumin because he isn't a public figure. However, there is a strong rumor that he is closely connected to both Wagnerites and Girkinites, which is why he was chosen as a successor to Shoigu per rumors.

[Grigb]

15 hours ago, IanL said:

More like 12-14 hours - someone parked some dump trucks across the highway and dug up the road surface in a few places.

There are rumors from supposed to be blockers that army blocks were erected after Wagnerites passed it. 

[Grigb]

7 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

From what I read on the Russian telegram channels, the Ukrainians are holding on but there is a lot of firepower being brought down by both sides. Personally, I wouldn't want to be anywhere near to such an intense fight in such a small area.

RU exaggerate their efforts. Rag tag unit that tried to counter attack UKR position was smacked hard with arty. UKR control with arty all approaches to foothold. So, RU actually unable to do anything with ground forces for fear being smacked again. Their current plan is level everything with suicide drones and bombs. But UKR EW successfully suppresses  RU drones and it seems VKS is very reluctant to fly close to he bridge and only toss bomb from a far hoping that eventual they would land close to the target.

On other hand UKR did not put significant forces there yet. At the moment it is more like distraction (or they are waiting for something) 

[Letter from Prague]

I'm always happy to learn new thing from the Independent Defence Think-tank CMF(*), but a tale of secret love is not what I expected.

Very credible, the competing think-tank r/NCD would agree.

(*): Combat Mission Forums

[Carolus]

It is interesting how this war seems to have combined anachronisms.

Drones and long-range precison strikes mix with mass artillery and extensive minefields.

It leads to a lot of indirect fighting (a mine, a shell, a cruise missile is something that is fighting/affecting the enemy far away without you yourself being there), combined with the very close range direct fighting whenever one group manages to get into the other's trench. 

I hope that Western nations take note. I know, as was pointed out by others in this thread, that this particular theater has oddities which may be unique - and a conventional approach by the West with air superiority (after a traumatic SEAD campaign) could look very different.

On the other hand I hope that every NATO company is about to get an attachable drone platoon with every squaddie carrying a dozen FPV drones and an X-Box controller on his back. The versatility and range they seem to provide is enormous and the only ceiling is how cheaply you can pump the drones out.

I am extremely worried when looking at China, the Mekka of cheap electronic mass production. On the other hand, FPV drones might be rather useless in a maritime war. 

My apologies for rambling.

Coming back to Ukraine, based on the probes (which I truly believe were just probes or recon in force attempts so far - which may very well be the entirety of corrosive warfare; an endless series of probes), what could the West do that really helps?

Mine clearing seems to be a huge issue.

Can mines be detonated by cluster ammunition? Or classic impact artillery? Is it reliable or cost-effective to blast a path down the minefield with a rolling barrage? Does that ruin the field for tracked vehicles? 

Mine-clearing vehicles seem to be vulnerable to being targeted since they need to be present at the position and are crewed by people. 

AT- Mines are usually triggered by weight and magnetics. Weight prevents the idea of using a lot of small remote controlled vehicles, since they would not trigger. Using heavy remote controlled vehicles seems expensive.

What could the West provide that is timely and effective? A hundred old Ford SUVs and ye olde brick on the gas pedal? Would that just create a barrier of scrap metal once the mine field is cleared? Can they be pushed aside with tanks that roll through next?

Again, my apologies for likely inefficient ramblings. It is the result of reading about the ongoing counter-offensive and the suffering of the Ukrainian service men and is the attempt of someone non-military to think about a (apparently rather tricky) military situation.

 

Edited June 27, 2023 by Carolus