How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[_Morpheus_]

russians take a position but where smashed with M2 Browning (NOT)  and arty near Soledar.
Drone operator confirming hits for machine gunner in real time.

PS: as was mentioned, it's not a  M2 Browning, looks like an "Utyos" MG ? 

Edited January 11, 2023 by _Morpheus_

[Beleg85]

Tom Cooper thesis that it was "too many chiefs in one tent" is interesting, albeit difficult to evaluate (46th announcment seems to be in that spirit of some intra-unit quarrels as to the situation assessment). If true, it would be next case of AFU suffering in defence of an urban area due to inadequate C&C coordination. Perhaps that's why Sirsky was there 2 days ago?

[fireship4]

38 minutes ago, _Morpheus_ said:

russians take a position but where smashed with M2 Browning  and arty near Soledar.
Drone operator confirming hits for M2 Browning machine gunner in real time. 

That is not a Browning, but a DShK 38/46 I believe, though the sight seems a bit far from the end of the barrel, so perhaps I am wrong or it has some sort of attachment.  The same position was shown in a longer video elsewhere, focusing on artillery fire.

Edited January 11, 2023 by fireship4

[Huba]

Photos from Lublin Triangle meeting between presidents of Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine. Poland will  work to create the Leopard coalition, and our offer to supply some Leos is now official.

Also, the Bradleys will seemingly arrive much earlier than expected, implying that training for them started before they were announced - this is a very good sign, perhaps other goodies are already in the pipeline too.

 

Edited January 11, 2023 by Huba

[billbindc]

4 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Ha ha, like many academics, Doc Luttwak was always stronger on strategy than actual execution. He could have ended his Tweet at 'Of little use.'

Good fun at parties though, @billbindc

...Now if the Russians wanted to put these coffins to actual battlefield use, they'd pull off the 12.7mm turrets (stick them on bunkers or sumfink) and turn them into mortar carriers.

Low tech tactical firepower is all they can build in volume for now. Mortar tubes (and rocket rails) and ammo are a lot easier to machine than 152mm/203mm tubes and shells. 1930s tech.

I don't know him personally but intellectually speaking Luttvak is an absolute clown. His Coup D'Etat was a rip off of Malaparte and his 'Grand Strategy' books on the Byzantine and Roman Empires have no documentary or archaeological evidence.  Nobody who you would take seriously takes Luttvak seriously. 

[Beleg85]

I read opinions that we will give one company of Leo2's to Ukrainians as a means to build "a coalition" to pressure other partners to give theirs. Lithuanians seem to be somehow participating too.

Nice.

14 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I don't know him personally but intellectually speaking Luttvak is an absolute clown. His Coup D'Etat was a rip off of Malaparte and his 'Grand Strategy' books on the Byzantine and Roman Empires have no documentary or archaeological evidence.  Nobody who you would take seriously takes Luttvak seriously. 

One can read his twitter feed from before the war, absolute arrogance and cluelesssness ("Russians will retreat after several hundred casualties, they are very risk-averse". "Poles will never agree to help Ukrainians in time, too many historical grudges"; "we will never see large weapons shipments to UA").

Tbf. his first book on Roman strategy give some impulses for discussions among ancient historians- many questions as to how rational was Roman governing were asked, and some authors tried to answer them. But yeah, in itself it was terrible.

 

https://twitter.com/RolandOliphant/status/1613179671532773376

Something about rivalry between Wagner and MoD- Girkin joined the PR fray.

Edited January 11, 2023 by Beleg85

[kevinkin]

17 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russia announced its end of year financial numbers.  2.3% deficit is the bottom line result:

A ways to go:

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-government-european-union-business-64e7343d7f2e29c6f738062ea100f31b

Report: Oil price cap takes small slice of Russia’s revenue

Good news is there is a room to further shrink the Russian economy. But pressure is on about how much due to the overall global economy. Has a very quick blurb on an embargo of downstream oil products that will take time to take hold. Bottom line: "Russia will not sell oil to countries obeying the cap, a threat which has not materialized because the cap is above the market price." When they go high we go low. er. 

[Kinophile]

https://www.agenzianova.com/en/news/The-Ukrainian-General-Staff-announces-we-have-destroyed-a-Russian-ship/amp/

What's this now... 

?  Just a cutter, so far

 

Edited January 11, 2023 by Kinophile

[FancyCat]

 

[kevinkin]

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3807448-russia-on-verge-of-biggest-gain-in-ukraine-since-summer/

ISW said ..

“[Wagner Group leader Yevgeny] Prigozhin will continue to use both confirmed and fabricated Wagner Group success in Soledar and Bakhmut to promote the Wagner Group as the only Russian force in Ukraine capable of securing tangible gains,” the institute said in an analysis.

Perhaps a little confusion at the top might be good overall. But that sector appears to be an unfortunate meatgrinder. Don't think Prigozhi will win out unless Russia falls into dystopia and I don't think we want to go that far.  

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

I read opinions that we will give one company of Leo2's to Ukrainians as a means to build "a coalition" to pressure other partners to give theirs. Lithuanians seem to be somehow participating too.

Nice.

One can read his twitter feed from before the war, absolute arrogance and cluelesssness ("Russians will retreat after several hundred casualties, they are very risk-averse". "Poles will never agree to help Ukrainians in time, too many historical grudges"; "we will never see large weapons shipments to UA").

Tbf. his first book on Roman strategy give some impulses for discussions among ancient historians- many questions as to how rational was Roman governing were asked, and some authors tried to answer them. But yeah, in itself it was terrible.

 

https://twitter.com/RolandOliphant/status/1613179671532773376

Something about rivalry between Wagner and MoD- Girkin joined the PR fray.

His first book seems like it was essentially an attempt to curry favor with the Moroccan gov't and to legitimize the methods they were using against the Polisario in the Western Sahara. By all accounts it was a lucrative deal. That's Luttvak's game...he supplies a veneer plausibility to those who need it...especially himself. 

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Ts4EVER said:

Regarding the hybrid warfare potential of Russia: As I am sitting in my classroom here in Germany, looking out of the window, there is a massive traffic jam of trucks from all over eastern Europe. The reason: an as of yet unidentified truck has lost tons of white wax on the A7 Autobahn in the middle of the night. The first day after it happened we joked that it may have been a Russian act of sabotage. Now that we learned that this might take the whole week to clean up, some have started to believe it…

Turns out you could probably cripple all of Germany with 4 trucks full of white wax.

Our infrastructure is incredibly vulnerable to just about everything, especially natural disasters.  Small acts of sabotage in the right place at the right time certainly could cause significant disruption.  Aside from "just in time" economics, there is also over specialization.  During the pandemic there was one factory in China making almost all of the world's reagents and there were only two companies in the world producing the cotton swabs used to take samples.  If someone wanted to screw up COVID testing for the entire world it wouldn't be all that difficult.

If the pandemic has taught us one thing more than anything else, it is how fragile our global economy is.

Steve

[chrisl]

Listening to NPR this morning they had a report on Bakhmut that could have been pulled from here.  They accurately summed up the military significance to the war for Russia as minimal, the value for Ukraine in pulling in RU forces and grinding them up, and the political value at home of even a tiny apparent victory for RU.  They stopped short of bringing in that it may be about determining Putin’s successor.

[sburke]

9 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Yes, in business it is far more usual than not that 'strategy' becomes an exercise in C-level groupthink and empty sloganeering.

The 'how do we get there' thesis is rarely quantified, still less actionable.

I do kind of miss playing buzz word bingo during leadership conference calls. Best one was when Graham Wallace, head of Cable and Wireless was speaking during a video call and counting off points.  As he got to the last one he was literally giving us all the finger.  Everyone wanted a copy of that video.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Tom Cooper thesis that it was "too many chiefs in one tent" is interesting, albeit difficult to evaluate (46th announcment seems to be in that spirit of some intra-unit quarrels as to the situation assessment). If true, it would be next case of AFU suffering in defence of an urban area due to inadequate C&C coordination. Perhaps that's why Sirsky was there 2 days ago?

I haven't seen Cooper posted here in months!  I personally gave up on him because he was too consistently "getting ahead of his skis" on issues like this, then being proven wrong not too long after.

The situation in this sector of front is obviously intense and extremely costly for Ukraine, though by all accounts vastly worse for Russian forces.  Senior commanders should be on the spot to lend aid and assistance, especially because there isn't much going on elsewhere except Kreminna.

Steve

[The_Capt]

14 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't see how heavier IFVs would make any difference.  From a few pages ago there was the description of fighting vehicles rushing forward, firing a bunch into the oncoming Russians, then beating a hasty retreat.  We also have from the reporting on Wagner's tactics that they don't seem to be employing vehicles as much as we're used to.  So a Humvee with a M2 is probably just about as good as a Bradley since it doesn't appear Wagner is shooting back.

Of course more and heavier is better, I'm just saying that the casualty count on Ukraine's side is unlikely to change.

What seems to be more useful is ensuring there is solid directed mortar support.,

Steve

And we are back to this.  The theory is that somehow if we had showered Ukraine in [Insert favored IFV, tank or whatever] that this war would be over by now.  This is gross oversimplification bordering on disinformation with an undertone of western biases that are frankly bordering on imperial prejudices.

1.  Ukraine has a large arms industry of its own: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_industry_of_Ukraine.  It is no doubt under stress but we have no reports it is falling apart.  It needs all the help it can get, so lets start there.

2.  Ukraine had pretty healthy mechanized force before this war started armed, not surprisingly with its own equipment. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Ground_Forces.  They have sustained losses, but do we have any reports of the UA being critically short of anything?  Any major losses due to those shortfalls?  Ok, so lets not freak out with the "Ukraine is collapsing because they do not have Marders" thing.

3.  Ukraine has captured an obscene amount of Russian equipment - https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html.  If half of those Russian vehicles have been made fit for battle Ukraine likely has more of some natures that it did at the start of the war.  Any support we can to make that happen smoother, better and faster is a very good idea.

4.  Heavy's overall value proposition is in doubt in this entire thing.  The Russians had mountains of it and it made no difference.  The UA is much smarter so I suspect they have already figured out the right conditions for heavy to work and are working to set it up.  We should be aiming at supporting the UA in creating those conditions as a priority, exploitation of that is something I am pretty sure they can cover.

5.  Every sexy peice of western equipment comes with a heavy logistics bill (we have discussed this), and in large numbers that bill could make the UAs life harder, not easier to sustain this potpourri of western hardware.

This whole line of thought, though well intentioned, also smacks of western superiority complex - "well if we had simply given those poor dirty Ukrainian rabble our superior western equipment they would have put Ivan on the run by now...oh dear, shame on us." 

Ukraine has thousands of APCs/IFVs - 40 Marders is not going to magically turn the tide anymore than 100 Leo 2s, or 50 Bradleys or freakin M1s.

Should we give Ukraine support? Absolutely. Should that include complete capability force packages that they can build units around? - again, yes. Should we give them versions of what they already have and can sustain? - definitely.  Should we prioritize things that do make an actual difference?  Like ISR, long range fires, AD and how about simple money so that soldiers get paid and their families can buy groceries?  How about shoring up the existing Ukrainian arms industry and military architecture so they can stop being so dependent on western support? Should we train and support their force generation - oh, most definitely.  

If someone said we had to decide between training 75k Ukraine troops or another 100 Marders, I already know what the right answer is.  You cannot flood a military built on an entirely different fleet system, in the middle of a a war, and magically make it all go away.  You can wring hands and cry "oh dear, think about all the good Ukrainain boys who may have survived if they were in Bradleys", well that assumes a Bradley is shell, mine and ATGM proof as well as invisible to begin with.  It also fails to fundamentally understand how militaries are built, sustained and employed.

Ukraine needs broad holistic and comprehensive support on many levels.  Niche, hi profile sexy equipment donations are nice but we cannot lose sight of the fundamentals - the stuff that really makes a difference.  And when this war is over, that is when the real support will be needed.  We had better see as much hand wringing and noise on donating farm equipment, reconstruction infrastructure and economic stimulus as we have seen on Marders/Bradleys or there was no point to this whole thing.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

Also, the Bradleys will seemingly arrive much earlier than expected, implying that training for them started before they were announced

Good!  I thought this might be the case.  The bigger things we've seen officially announced have usually been actively in the works for some time before.  Which makes sense because it is better to give Russia as little time to react as possible.

Steve

[sburke]

‘Putin’s Chef’ Humiliated by His Own Side After Bragging of Wagner Victory (yahoo.com)

 

In an announcement late Tuesday, Prigozhin gleefully claimed his men had taken control of a salt mine town that Russian forces are hoping to use as a stepping stone to gain control of the highly coveted city of Bakhmut, a Ukrainian stronghold for months.

“Wagner units have taken control of all the territory of Soledar,” Prigozhin said through his press service. “I want to emphasize that no units other than the Wagner fighters took part in the assault on Soledar,” he said.

While Ukrainian authorities denied Prigozhin’s claim and said battles were still underway in the town—and that the selfie the Wagner boss posted supposedly from Soledar was not even in Soledar—Russia’s two dueling armies devolved into their own war within a war.

Russia’s Defense Ministry shot down Prigozhin’s boast that his own men had single-handedly brought Putin a win, instead confirming Ukraine’s announcement that fighting was still underway in the town.

Moreover, defense officials suggested Russian airborne units and assault teams are leading the charge. The Defense Ministry made no mention of Wagner whatsoever.

The rebuff comes as praise for Prigozhin’s outfit hit a fever pitch among pro-Kremlin figures, and the notorious mercenary group threatened to outshine Putin’s regular soldiers on the battlefield.

Edited January 11, 2023 by sburke

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

This whole line of thought, though well intentioned, also smacks of western superiority complex - "well if we had simply given those poor dirty Ukrainian rabble our superior western equipment they would have put Ivan on the run by now...oh dear, shame on us." 

Well put sentiment in another good post of yours.

Yes, I think this is a lot of what we've seen expressed here and elsewhere about the weaponry.  For sure we CMers know how much better a Bradley is compared to a BTR or a truck with a heavy MG mounted (BTW, I noticed a 6x6 truck being used in Soledar mounting what looked to be an light AA gun of some sort), but we also know damned well the degree of superiority is situationally dependent. 

To drive this point home... how many here would prefer to take King Tigers with them into the woods of the Eifel?  Nobody, right?  Right.  Funny enough, neither did the Germans

So while it is correct to want to give Ukraine the best equipment we possibly can, and know that it will make some difference (someone will survive a hit in a MRAP that wouldn't in a SUV), it is not likely going to change the overall picture of this war.

Put another way, I don't see how a Bradley would have changed the outcome of the 4 dead Ukrainian soldiers in a well dugout trench I saw in some drone footage yesterday.  They died because this war is brutal, not because they didn't have a Leo1 in the vicinity.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Grossman said:

The UKR command meanwhile is grouping for a meaningful push, a strategic advance.

It is my hope that the reason we're not seeing a bigger effort to crush the Russians in the central Donbas front (Soledar/Bakhmut) is because there's something much grander in the works and Ukraine (correctly) doesn't want to get distracted by a bloody sideshow.

It is the second week of January and the weather is finally seeming like it will be stable for a while.  Hopefully we will see if Ukraine is being sensible an taking some short term pain for a larger long term gain, or if there's something else going on that isn't as positive.

Steve

[dan/california]

11 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

And we are back to this.  The theory is that somehow if we had showered Ukraine in [Insert favored IFV, tank or whatever] that this war would be over by now.  This is gross oversimplification bordering on disinformation with an undertone of western biases that are frankly bordering on imperial prejudices.

1.  Ukraine has a large arms industry of its own: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_industry_of_Ukraine.  It is no doubt under stress but we have no reports it is falling apart.  It needs all the help it can get, so lets start there.

2.  Ukraine had pretty healthy mechanized force before this war started armed, not surprisingly with its own equipment. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Ground_Forces.  They have sustained losses, but do we have any reports of the UA being critically short of anything?  Any major losses due to those shortfalls?  Ok, so lets not freak out with the "Ukraine is collapsing because they do not have Marders" thing.

3.  Ukraine has captured an obscene amount of Russian equipment - https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html.  If half of those Russian vehicles have been made fit for battle Ukraine likely has more of some natures that it did at the start of the war.  Any support we can to make that happen smoother, better and faster is a very good idea.

4.  Heavy's overall value proposition is in doubt in this entire thing.  The Russians had mountains of it and it made no difference.  The UA is much smarter so I suspect they have already figured out the right conditions for heavy to work and are working to set it up.  We should be aiming at supporting the UA in creating those conditions as a priority, exploitation of that is something I am pretty sure they can cover.

5.  Every sexy peice of western equipment comes with a heavy logistics bill (we have discussed this), and in large numbers that bill could make the UAs life harder, not easier to sustain this potpourri of western hardware.

This whole line of thought, though well intentioned, also smacks of western superiority complex - "well if we had simply given those poor dirty Ukrainian rabble our superior western equipment they would have put Ivan on the run by now...oh dear, shame on us." 

Ukraine has thousands of APCs/IFVs - 40 Marders is not going to magically turn the tide anymore than 100 Leo 2s, or 50 Bradleys or freakin M1s.

Should we give Ukraine support? Absolutely. Should that include complete capability force packages that they can build units around? - again, yes. Should we give them versions of what they already have and can sustain? - definitely.  Should we prioritize things that do make an actual difference?  Like ISR, long range fires, AD and how about simple money so that soldiers get paid and their families can buy groceries?  How about shoring up the existing Ukrainian arms industry and military architecture so they can stop being so dependent on western support? Should we train and support their force generation - oh, most definitely.  

If someone said we had to decide between training 75k Ukraine troops or another 100 Marders, I already know what the right answer is.  You cannot flood a military built on an entirely different fleet system, in the middle of a a war, and magically make it all go away.  You can wring hands and cry "oh dear, think about all the good Ukrainain boys who may have survived if they were in Bradleys", well that assumes a Bradley is shell, mine and ATGM proof as well as invisible to begin with.  It also fails to fundamentally understand how militaries are built, sustained and employed.

Ukraine needs broad holistic and comprehensive support on many levels.  Niche, hi profile sexy equipment donations are nice but we cannot lose sight of the fundamentals - the stuff that really makes a difference.  And when this war is over, that is when the real support will be needed.  We had better see as much hand wringing and noise on donating farm equipment, reconstruction infrastructure and economic stimulus as we have seen on Marders/Bradleys or there was no point to this whole thing.

You are of course right about all of this. I particular the single greatest short term need for Ukraine is artillery ammo, and GMLRS pods, these have been the indispensable equipment of this war. There is however a communication aspect to the supply of NATO MBTs/IFVs, It is an unmissable signal, to the Russians, to the Ukrainians, and the to the rest of the world(China) that NATO isn't quitting on this. That whatever Ukraine needs will be manufactured and supplied, that Russia's strategy of exhaustion is not going to accomplish ANYTHING except killing of a generation of Russian men, and tipping Russia the rest of the way into demographic and economic disaster. 

[Kinophile]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I haven't seen Cooper posted here in months!  I personally gave up on him because he was too consistently "getting ahead of his skis" on issues like this, then being proven wrong not too long after.

The situation in this sector of front is obviously intense and extremely costly for Ukraine, though by all accounts vastly worse for Russian forces.  Senior commanders should be on the spot to lend aid and assistance, especially because there isn't much going on elsewhere except Kreminna.

Steve

He has some value when not projecting and just analysing. 

Ref the too many chefs, that would make sense. Syrski coming in to add clarity and restructure the heirarchy is exactly his job.  He needs to deal with one commander, not a group,  otherwise how can he reinforce correctly. 

If it's accurate then he probably came just in time to clarify the defense and harmonize the logistics/demands. 

 

[Astrophel]

47 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Our infrastructure is incredibly vulnerable to just about everything, especially natural disasters.  Small acts of sabotage in the right place at the right time certainly could cause significant disruption.  Aside from "just in time" economics, there is also over specialization.  During the pandemic there was one factory in China making almost all of the world's reagents and there were only two companies in the world producing the cotton swabs used to take samples.  If someone wanted to screw up COVID testing for the entire world it wouldn't be all that difficult.

If the pandemic has taught us one thing more than anything else, it is how fragile our global economy is.

Steve

Wise words.  It is more a question of latency than fragility.  For example, a company I know decided to start making FFP2 face masks from scratch and 3-4 months later they were rolling from the factory for local hospitals.  Now they stop because the masks are too expensive.

Specialisation tends to mean efficiency, quality, and lowest cost.  A seductive combination.  We need to figure out where our military vulnerabilities are and protect those areas, rather than change the entire business model.

[sburke]

Another country Putin thought was his friend has snubbed Russia by refusing to host its military for routine exercises (msn.com)

 

[Beleg85]

32 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I haven't seen Cooper posted here in months!  I personally gave up on him because he was too consistently "getting ahead of his skis" on issues like this, then being proven wrong not too long after.

The situation in this sector of front is obviously intense and extremely costly for Ukraine, though by all accounts vastly worse for Russian forces.  Senior commanders should be on the spot to lend aid and assistance, especially because there isn't much going on elsewhere except Kreminna.

Steve

Yup, but for his defence he is regular contributor in Ukrainian media and actually developed some network of his own sources on the ground. This is interesting, like methodology of his Helion books looking at God-forgotten-conflicts in XX cent. from perspectve of local scholars rather than Western ones.

Btw. some rumours from people who travell the frontlines are circulating that some "news from the east" are to be expected, but these may be gossips. Perhaps it is about Kreminna.