How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Taranis]

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

58 minutes ago, kraze said:

And just to finally end this pointless back and forth topic of misunderstanding - I want to clarify what I want to all people crying "omg you want genocide". I want russian empire to cease existing, ideally, baring that I want a big wall between us and Russia for at least the next century, until they repaid us all the reparations and made sure we rebuilt everything, until this war is just a bunch of pictures in the books to our grand-grandchildren - and if Russia falls down and disintegrates during this time - then I want a big bucket of popcorn and a front seat atop that wall. That's it. I certainly don't want Ukrainians to bloody our hands any more than how it already is. Our lives are too precious for revenge wars.

There is nobody that is posting on this Forum that wants Russia done and over with as an Imperial, aggressive country.  And thanks in large part to Ukraine's sacrifice, that is an assured thing for many years no matter what the West does.  Russia's military is wrecked beyond salvage.  I have gone into detail about this and how long it will take to rebuild to what it was in February.  DECADES.  And that is only if Russian starve to death to free up the money to make it happen.

Let me make this perfectly clear... the Russia that attacked your country is mortally wounded.  It's still fighting its inevitable death, but it is headed there fast.  And once it is dead, either in one piece of in many, it will not be invading anybody any time in the near future.  It doesn't matter how much you believe invading is coded into Russian DNA, they simply won't be able to make it happen.  Desire and reality are going to be very far apart for expansionist Russians.

This gives the world a chance to see if Russians are capable of learning from their mistakes.  It is possible and if you don't believe that, then you are not as well versed in world history as your are Ukrainian.  I've made dozens of posts on this topic in the past few days, so reading them would be a start towards a better understanding of how the world around you works.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

26 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Sensing military defeat RU Nats are turning to a very fully familiar rhetoric

 

Yup, blame the rich.  Generally when I hear that I scoff, but in this case the RU Nats have a point.  One of the primary reasons their military sucks so bad is how much wealth has been stolen from the people.  And the head thief and lead architect of this system?  Why, it's Putin of course

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

13 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

 

I missed this. Barge bridge being disassembled. Couple days ago.

Yeah, I saw that and was waiting for someone to post some follow up info.  I haven't seen anything since.  Some other source I read (maybe also Kherson Cat) speculated that they gave up on the idea and instead decided to use them as ferries.  You know, because they keep misplacing them

Steve

[G.I. Joe]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup, blame the rich.  Generally when I hear that I scoff, but in this case the RU Nats have a point.  One of the primary reasons their military sucks so bad is how much wealth has been stolen from the people.  And the head thief and lead architect of this system?  Why, it's Putin of course

Steve

So ironic it happened in the erstwhile self-styled home of world communism: They practically became the incarnation of their own propaganda caricature of our side...

[Offshoot]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, I saw that and was waiting for someone to post some follow up info.  I haven't seen anything since.

That thread continues and on 28th they said "Local sources report that the Russians are again constructing a barge structure under the bridge".

[Battlefront.com]

25 minutes ago, Kraft said:

NATO tanks did not have to roll past Moscow to collapse the USSR.

Why is this so certain to not happen again? Many Rebuplics will feel the shackle lift and without strong internal suppression might declare themselfs in a snowball fashion.

What would a successor do? Ask the Ukrainians to send some of those Rosgvardia corpses back so they can police? Send conscripts against the own population? What do you think happens then.

This is the Russia collapse scenario that has been talked about for a long time.  I know I stated this in one of my first posts to this thread.  Specifically that Putin had not only ensured the end of his regime, but likely the end of Russia as we know it.

I posted something about this a couple of pages back.  The removal of almost all their ground forces from all over the Russian Federation's borders to fight in Ukraine means that when the end comes there's not going to be troops in the outlying areas to intimidate the locals. Moscow based FSB personnel will most likely leave at the first sign of significant trouble.  Moscow based bureaucrats and politicians will also flee.  This will increase the chances of a specific area breaking away.

I think we can be pretty sure Chechnya is going to either separate from Russia or demand so much autonomy that they might as well be separate.  Fortunately, no nukes are stationed in Chechnya, so no risk of them having bombs for their new state.

The Caucuses in general are going to be a huge headache for whomever takes over for Putin.  I'm not sure how much fight will be left in the Russian Army to tackle the problem areas.  Worse for them, the most likely people to revolt are the ones that have disproportionally been sent to Ukraine.  The survivors will have combat experience.  Even worse than that, the Russian military is heavily dependent upon these same people for their own ranks.  Whatever is left of Russian military manpower is going to melt away quickly if internal conflicts arise.

Steve

[FancyCat]

A bit more context to separatists statements. Not a lot of info, but some side stuff that is interesting.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/21/russias-rushed-referendums-a78856

 

[Grigb]

Khodakovsly explains the reason for the recent RU local retreat at Vuhledar

Quote

Angered part

I am sure that everyone in the Ministry of Defense wants the best result just like me. Neither the minister nor the Chief if General Staff carry a finger in their pocket [behavior of traitor], and they do not sleep at night, getting punched every day [for the failures] and realizing that if not now, at the ferry [in the middle of the process], then all the questions still will be asked [afterwards]. But if they sleep and see victory, why is it the way it is?

We have surrendered those small positions that we took the other day, having lost a lot of people... And the question is not "why did we lose them" - everything is clear to me here - but "then why we took them"? How many times have I, a homegrown strategist, said do not get into a trap - you need to attack in a wide area, having more than one echelon behind you, so that there is someone to develop the offensive when the forward units run out of steam? I said that with a lack of forces and means, you need to keep an optimal distance from the enemy and work from defense until the accumulation of resources allows you to go on the offensive... But then why are we [still] twitching, creating an unacceptable situation for ourselves?

A RU general is to blame

But other laws that have nothing to do with strategy and tactics are already working here. So, the general came to the grouping in order to strengthen and improve [local situation], because it was neither strong nor good before him, and his personal task is to make a good impression [on his chiefs]. And what about a weakened [human] resource? He is doing so and so, he uses informal means [threats] to force [people do what he wants], and his efforts are noticed, and the promotion seems to be looming, but still - a demob chord [RU soldier ritual - doing something impressive just before demobilization] is needed. And so, he gives a chord [order to advance], thanks [soldiers] for the service, and wanes.... And his chord, due to its non-viability, lives in agony for three days and subsides.

The System is root cause

It is obvious that personal ambitions and self-esteem come into competition with the interests of the cause. At the top, you always need a result, and when there is no result, they often try to slip an imitation of it. Often, but not always. I know, for example, Teplinsky, Mordvichev, other generals with whom I had to communicate personally - Russia can be proud of them. It is important that such an approach as they demonstrate becomes ubiquitous: only the real result, and when it is not there, the truth about the reasons. I would be very happy to meet now with the general, who in 2014 wore the call sign Kazbek. There are no pockets in the coffin [means you cannot take stolen to the grave] - his favorite saying - but the system did not like generals like him. But now the time has come when it is necessary to give way to such generals.

 

[Grigb]

42 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup, blame the rich.  Generally when I hear that I scoff, but in this case the RU Nats have a point.  One of the primary reasons their military sucks so bad is how much wealth has been stolen from the people.  And the head thief and lead architect of this system?  Why, it's Putin of course

Steve

The funny part is that instead of Putin gang they will destroy the most usefulcompanies and will drive the last businessmen out ensuring worst outcome for RU.

[Pete Wenman]

A collection of low level aerial views showing destroyed villages in Kharkiv region.

https://deepstateua.com/vighliad-znishchienikh-rosiieiu-zvilnienikh-sil-na-kharkivshchini/

 

 

[Grigb]

That Soloviev is becoming hysterical regarding the situation in Lyman. He is really upset with losing territory. 

[FancyCat]

 

 

[Grigb]

Videos started to appear from Dagestan city Derbent with police car announcing for all men of Derbent to urgently come to commissariat. BTW the police car voice belongs to pure Russian, not dagestanti man, so it clearly looks like scene from the life of occupied city. 

[Grigb]

RUMINT

Quote

Today, President Putin will hold an operational meeting of the Security Council, and tomorrow [they] will sign agreements with the four territories that held the referendum.

 

[Grigb]

RU Nats are strangely quiet today about Lyman. I feel smell of cunning regrouping.  

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Grigb said:

RU Nats are strangely quiet today about Lyman. I feel smell of cunning regrouping.  

Same impression here! Rybar didn't do the map today, it is highly unusual. All the other channels I follow only babble about 'brave defenders' etc. Either regrouping, or heroic last stand seem imminent.

Edit: perhaps they remain quiet not to piss on Putin's speech scheduled for tomorrow? The timing of that is too good.

Edited September 29, 2022 by Huba

[The_MonkeyKing]

Seems the hope that (some people had) of Russia backing away with the annexation after the Meduza article is fading again.

[Huba]

Just now, The_MonkeyKing said:

Seems the hope that (some people had) of Russia backing away with the annexation after the Meduza article is fading again.

Yeah, looks like it. Things are escalating rather quickly, I wonder what the West's response would be - I'd expect some more spectacular weapons (like yesterday's HIMARS battalion), but this wish was repeated so many times I doubt it at this point.

[The_MonkeyKing]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

Yeah, looks like it. Things are escalating rather quickly, I wonder what the West's response would be - I'd expect some more spectacular weapons (like yesterday's HIMARS battalion), but this wish was repeated so many times I doubt it at this point.

I think the response could be a combination of:

• giving Russian seized assets to Ukraine (anyway just matter of when)
• quality escalation of military aid by the US (some of these: M2 Bradley, Patriot, ATACMS)
• sanction escalation mainly by Europe (the so far stuck sanctions advancing like price cap)

[Huba]

Oh, nvm, I thought they moved it to today.

Edited September 29, 2022 by Huba

[Rokko]

Something that occurred to me today: By reaching Kupyansk and the Oskil river, the Ukrainians should have extended the reach of their HIMARS by a good 50km or roughly 60% of their total range, yet there weren't any reports of large Russian ammo dumps getting blown up since then within this newly in-range area. This would seem to indicate that the Russians proactively dispersed even those "super-depots" that were well away even from the current front line, which seems sensible but also atypical for them. But perhaps they were already factoring in weapons systems like whatever hit Saki airfield or ATACMS. In any case, it would be interesting to know just how far out their logistics are limited in this manner. It surely can not help the situation at the front and each km added means twice that number for round-trip routes.

[Huba]

16 minutes ago, Rokko said:

Something that occurred to me today: By reaching Kupyansk and the Oskil river, the Ukrainians should have extended the reach of their HIMARS by a good 50km or roughly 60% of their total range, yet there weren't any reports of large Russian ammo dumps getting blown up since then within this newly in-range area. This would seem to indicate that the Russians proactively dispersed even those "super-depots" that were well away even from the current front line, which seems sensible but also atypical for them. But perhaps they were already factoring in weapons systems like whatever hit Saki airfield or ATACMS. In any case, it would be interesting to know just how far out their logistics are limited in this manner. It surely can not help the situation at the front and each km added means twice that number for round-trip routes.

Both Svatove and Starobilsk were well within GMLRS range even before the Izium operation started, UA could fire at them from  Siviersk area (the distance measure feature in Google Earth is awesome  ). On top of that, I bet that main ammo dumps for the northern sector would be located in Russia proper, giving them some immunity

Edited September 29, 2022 by Huba

[Der Zeitgeist]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

 

What I always find fascinating about these kind of pictures of the Ukrainian military is the quiet professionalism that they seem to emit. That was something noticeable from the first hours of the war. Whatever the situation, they always seem to know exactly what they're doing.

In a few years, these guys will be training us, not the other way around.

Edited September 29, 2022 by Der Zeitgeist

[The_MonkeyKing]

2 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

What I always find fascinating about these kind of pictures of the Ukrainian military is the quiet professionalism that they seem to emit. That was something noticeable from the first hours of the war. Whatever the situation, they always seem to know exactly what they're doing.#

In a few years, these guys will be training us, not the other way around.

With these kinds of pictures we must remember there are only few and these few are the ones Ukraine chooses to publish.