How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

From ISW:

These documents support ISW's recent assessment that Ukrainian forces achieved operational surprise during the incursion into Kursk Oblast despite Russian authorities' reported awareness of the possibility of an incursion.[6] The American doctrinal definition of surprise is to "attack the enemy in a time or place or in a manner for which he is unprepared."[7] Although Russian forces were likely aware of various points along the international border at which Ukraine could conduct an incursion, Ukrainian forces were able to leverage ambiguity around their operational intent and capabilities to maintain operational surprise.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-20-2024

I disagree, and ISW is trying to salvage evidence that in fact counters their assessment. Citations from that Guardian article and the captured documents show that the RA had detailed knowledge of where the UA hammer was going to fall. 

“In mid-June, there was a more specific warning of Ukrainian plans “in the direction Yunakivka-Sudzha, with the goal of taking Sudzha under control”, which did indeed happen in August. There was also a prediction that Ukraine would attempt to destroy a bridge over the Seym River to disrupt Russian supply lines in the region, which also later happened. The June document complained that Russian units stationed at the front “are filled only 60-70% on average, and primarily made up of reserves with weak training”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/20/revealed-russia-anticipated-kursk-incursion-months-in-advance-seized-papers-show

This is not demonstrating “ambiguity of intent” nor operational surprise. Further in order for ISW to sustain this claim they would need proof of what was going on inside the RA chain of command. Were they surprised and confused? Or were they in denial, refusing to send bad news to higher (a trend we have seen). Or were middle level commanders too busy trying to shift blame? 

We do not have a full picture of what the UA did with respect to deception and OPSEC, so it is hard to gauge what was successful. It is weak tea to claim operational surprise at this point without much more information. Worse it is irresponsible to raise expectations based on Kursk when the same results are likely not possible down south.

Edited 18 hours ago by The_Capt

[dan/california]

54 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Worse it is irresponsible to raise expectations based on Kursk when the same results are likely not possible down south.

For about nine reasons. Kursk worked for the oldest reason in military operations. Ukraine hit them where they weren't. Why the Russians weren't ready is just not understood yet. Even the balance between Russian idiocy and Ukrainian brilliance is not understood yet. We will not get this answer while the war is still going. 

The one thing I am sure of is that the Russians are there in quantity from the Donbas down to Crimea. What ever it will take to break them there, catching them not ready, and more the point in insufficient mass is not likely is not likely to be it.

[Silentkilarz]

I don’t think this is war changer of course but it definitely is throwing some wrenches down the hole for Russia. 

[Silentkilarz]

4 hours ago, Kraft said:

There are claims more than 100 drones were used against the Tver depot, including new Jet engine ones - I have however not seen any evidence of AA working or the drones flying by in someones video.

I doubt it would have been so successfull had the russians not stored ammo, probably against protocol, in large quantities above ground.

That’s what I’m finding interesting. There’s been no return fire from all the videos I’ve seen of the attacks. Of course we have a small sample size and we don’t know everything. That’s why I question how it was done. Jest drones, mass of drones, the famous Russian competence or whatever. I just find it intriguing.

[danfrodo]

55 minutes ago, Silentkilarz said:

I don’t think this is war changer of course but it definitely is throwing some wrenches down the hole for Russia. 

It should reduce what russia can do.  Meat assaults all the more unsupported by shelling, hopefully.

'course, Putin will just keep feeding bodies into this at whatever rate he thinks he can without triggering real revolt.  Sounds like another 180k about to be served up.  That's ~ 6 months of casualties at the current rate.  Then he'll mobilize another 180k in the spring.  Until something gives, somewhere, on one side (or both).

[sburke]

Estonian intelligence believes Ukrainian strike on Russia's Toropets will affect war's course in coming weeks (msn.com)

 

The Estonian General Staff anticipates that Russian forces will experience a significant shortage of ammunition at the front in the coming weeks due to a Ukrainian strike on a depot in the Russian city of Toropets.

Source: Colonel Ants Kiviselg, Head of the Estonian Defence Forces Intelligence Centre, at a press conference hosted by the country's Defence Ministry, as reported by European Pravda, citing Estonian public broadcaster ERR

He stated that Ukraine successfully targeted the storage facility while some of the ammunition was not secured in bunkers, leading to a chain of explosions.

"30,000 tonnes of explosive ordnance were detonated, which means 750,000 shells. If we take the average battle rate, the Russian Federation has fired 10,000 rounds a week. So that's two to three months' supply of ammunition. As a result of this attack, Russia has suffered losses in ammunition and we will see the impact of these losses on the front in the coming weeks," said Kiviselg.
Commenting on the recent events in the ongoing war in Ukraine, Kiviselg noted that Russia continues to maintain the initiative at the operational level.

"Russia's operational pressure on Ukraine has gradually increased this week, reaching 194 incidences of contact per night. This shows that there is still a desire by the Russian Federation to conquer the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts," Kiviselg noted.

The Pokrovsk front is witnessing the highest number of hostilities, similar to last week. "Despite what is happening in Kursk, the Russian Federation has not withdrawn troops from the Pokrovsk direction, and no major change is expected there in the coming weeks," Kiviselg explained.

As for the Ukrainian operation in Russia's Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian forces are continuing to hold the initiative at the operational level.

"Russia did launch a counter-attack last week and has advanced slightly, but the Ukrainians are still holding their positions," Kiviselg said. "Last Thursday the Ukrainians also opened up a new offensive corridor in the Glushkovo area, where the Ukrainians have advanced almost six kilometres into Russia," the colonel stressed.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/18/world/europe/russia-political-expression-prisoners-pavel-kushnir.html

Long a critic of President Vladimir V. Putin, Mr. Kushnir took up political activism with added zeal after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. He spread leaflets damning the war while pushing himself to endure ever longer, harsher hunger strikes. Four blurry, muffled antiwar screeds that he posted on his YouTube channel, which had just five subscribers, landed him in a dark, crumbling jail on Karl Marx Street in Birobidzhan, the remote Siberian provincial capital where he lived.

Now, at age 40, he is dead.

 

A good write up of one of the infinity of tragedies that Putin has inflicted on Russia.

[CHARLIE43]

99(98?) bottles of beer on the wall and divide that by two per. Lots more ammo dumps going kaboom. And then the flood of vids by the criminals and foreigners complaining about their assaults not being supported by arty, half empty magazines and the order to fix bayonets. Tides turned and commanders disappearing with white flags abound (who fights that way anywho?).

Been keepin my eye on another area that is long overdo for a Kursk like offensive. Take away Crimea and drive their Navy out to sea?

[Eug85]

During a discussion about the problems of replenishing commanders in the Ukrainian armed forces, a Ukrainian tanker claims that many officers who come by assignment do not meet the requirements of the position they hold. Units do not want to let smart sergeants go to officer courses, since there is a high probability that this smart person will not return to them, but will be sent to another unit.

[mosuri]

9 hours ago, Kraft said:

Supposedly, russia tested a Sarmat ICBM and it failed - ww3 averted in any case since they cant exit silo without exploding?

 

 

Hope it did its best R-16 impression and wiped out a general or two

[TheVulture]

Not current events,  but the youtube channel War Archive has released a 45 minute video on the battle for Avdiivka which gives a more coherent overview of events than is possible at the time. 

 

 

 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

Gonna keep beating this drum because it's *highly* relevant to this war, and every war, and to the Western 'rules based order'.

This isn't just about undercutting on price with cheap crappy knockoffs, don't kid yourself.

https://newsletter.dunneinsights.com/p/the-great-china-car-blitzkrieg

China has unmatched scale, speed, supply chains and every variety of subsidies. Ships, too. BYD and SAIC have their own Roll-on/Roll-off vessels to transport cars across oceans.

...Switch cars for automated ground combat vehicles, or whatever, and you should be crapping yourself. They can respond to demand signals, and reverse engineer any Western innovation within months

While the West just has no idea how to respond, except with still more stock buybacks and other stupid finance trix.

Who Are These Guys?

Japanese, European and American competitor appear to have no response. They are confused and overwhelmed by the speed and strength of the Chinese offensive.

Edited 10 hours ago by LongLeftFlank

[Eug85]

Russians are making progress in the Vugledar area. There is a high probability that Vugledar may soon be surrounded

[LongLeftFlank]

Volunteers dying as Russia’s [documented] war dead tops 70,000 (BBC)

This is just the deaths they can document, as of July. Beeb doesn't allow their graphics to be reposted; see link for monthly histogram.

1. 13,781 (20%) were volunteers ("civilians who joined the armed forces after the start of the war"). Fatalities among volunteers now exceed other categories.

2. Former prisoners were previously the highest but they now account for 19% of all confirmed deaths.

3. Mobilised soldiers - citizens called up to fight - account for 13%.

Total: 52%. Would the remaining 48% be prewar professional military (contractors)?

Based on the described methodology, these figures also don't count separ units from pre-2014 Ukraine, said to have been bled out by early 2023, and likely not foreign (or impressed migrant) mercenaries either.

Since October last year, weekly fatalities of volunteers have not dipped below 100 - and, in some weeks, we have recorded more than 310 volunteer deaths.....

An official study by the primary military medical directorate of the Russian defence ministry says that 39% of soldiers’ deaths are a result of limb injuries and that mortality rates would be significantly improved if first aid and subsequent medical care were better.

Edited 9 hours ago by LongLeftFlank

[Offshoot]

32 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

1. 13,781 (20%) were volunteers ("civilians who joined the armed forces after the start of the war"). Fatalities among volunteers now exceed other categories.

This isn't surprising if they have burned through the other categories. Telling numbers would be the numbers of fatalities as a proportion within each category, for example, the number of convict fatalities as a proportion of all convicts in the army.

From the graph, the other 48% look to be contract soldiers from the first 7-8 months of the war and PMCs for the next 7-8 months. The Russians do seem to be burning through the different categories in succession. The volunteer category might last longer than the others due to numbers, but once they run out it will be the turn of the mobilized...

Edited 8 hours ago by Offshoot

[The_Capt]

7 hours ago, sburke said:

Estonian intelligence believes Ukrainian strike on Russia's Toropets will affect war's course in coming weeks (msn.com)

 

The Estonian General Staff anticipates that Russian forces will experience a significant shortage of ammunition at the front in the coming weeks due to a Ukrainian strike on a depot in the Russian city of Toropets.

Source: Colonel Ants Kiviselg, Head of the Estonian Defence Forces Intelligence Centre, at a press conference hosted by the country's Defence Ministry, as reported by European Pravda, citing Estonian public broadcaster ERR

He stated that Ukraine successfully targeted the storage facility while some of the ammunition was not secured in bunkers, leading to a chain of explosions.

"30,000 tonnes of explosive ordnance were detonated, which means 750,000 shells. If we take the average battle rate, the Russian Federation has fired 10,000 rounds a week. So that's two to three months' supply of ammunition. As a result of this attack, Russia has suffered losses in ammunition and we will see the impact of these losses on the front in the coming weeks," said Kiviselg.
Commenting on the recent events in the ongoing war in Ukraine, Kiviselg noted that Russia continues to maintain the initiative at the operational level.

"Russia's operational pressure on Ukraine has gradually increased this week, reaching 194 incidences of contact per night. This shows that there is still a desire by the Russian Federation to conquer the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts," Kiviselg noted.

The Pokrovsk front is witnessing the highest number of hostilities, similar to last week. "Despite what is happening in Kursk, the Russian Federation has not withdrawn troops from the Pokrovsk direction, and no major change is expected there in the coming weeks," Kiviselg explained.

As for the Ukrainian operation in Russia's Kursk Oblast, Ukrainian forces are continuing to hold the initiative at the operational level.

"Russia did launch a counter-attack last week and has advanced slightly, but the Ukrainians are still holding their positions," Kiviselg said. "Last Thursday the Ukrainians also opened up a new offensive corridor in the Glushkovo area, where the Ukrainians have advanced almost six kilometres into Russia," the colonel stressed.

10,000 a week seems a bit low. 

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html

Last spring they were firing 10k per day (back in ‘22 they were up at 50-60k). If they really are at 1400-1500 per day now then they were already in trouble.

[poesel]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Gonna keep beating this drum because it's *highly* relevant to this war, and every war, and to the Western 'rules based order'.

This isn't just about undercutting on price with cheap crappy knockoffs, don't kid yourself.

https://newsletter.dunneinsights.com/p/the-great-china-car-blitzkrieg

China has unmatched scale, speed, supply chains and every variety of subsidies. Ships, too. BYD and SAIC have their own Roll-on/Roll-off vessels to transport cars across oceans.

...Switch cars for automated ground combat vehicles, or whatever, and you should be crapping yourself. They can respond to demand signals, and reverse engineer any Western innovation within months

While the West just has no idea how to respond, except with still more stock buybacks and other stupid finance trix.

Who Are These Guys?

Japanese, European and American competitor appear to have no response. They are confused and overwhelmed by the speed and strength of the Chinese offensive.

I'm not going to underestimate China. I know the country a bit, been there quite often. But there are two things to consider:

1. China currently reclaims its status as '#1 country to produce stuff' - a spot it held from after the Romans until ~1750. Its downfall was self-inflicted and greatly helped by the British. China's comeback is only natural.
2. There is no magical Chinese bullet. China will (and does) have the same problems as anyone else. They do some things better, some worse. Their current overproduction is not sustainable and they know it. Hence, the price wars.

Unless China literally pulls the trigger (and I doubt they will), it will sort itself out in a decade or so. Not without trouble, of course. That would be boring.

[LongLeftFlank]

53 minutes ago, poesel said:

I'm not going to underestimate China. I know the country a bit, been there quite often. But there are two things to consider:

Sure, and I've been a China bear since 2009; empty cities, colossal overcapacity, etc. There is already hell to pay, and three generations of hardworking Chinese strivers are going to find themselves robbed of the comfortable bourgeois lifestyle they thought they would have. But will it get bad enough for their dissent to matter to the rulers?

And even if it does, will that create a China willing to fall in line with the 'DC consensus' and not seek to resume its place as the Middle Kingdom with beggar-thy-neighbour mercantilism? Almost certainly not.

Remember also, the very same kinds of massive wasteful boondoggles afflicting China occurred in America too during its glory growth years of 1860-1960: steamboat, railroad and telegraph overbuilds; mining and oil scams, not to mention several nightmarish real estate busts. (Plus violent strikes and local insurrections that dotted American cities with ugly brick armouries)

It would of course have been senseless for US shipyards to build in peacetime the capacity to crank out an escort carrier each week, plus countless other warships and Liberty ships.

But the capability, knowhow and ecosystem to ramp up and crank out those warships was absolutely there, at world class levels, and that (plus control over the vast preponderance of the world's natural resources, courtesy of the old colonial powers) was what made American power inexorable, given an 18 month lead time to mid 1943 (plus some foresight and determination by the FDR admin).

Today's West, with the possible exception of Germany (now finally ageing out along with the rest) simply does not have the capability to ramp up for a high tech peer conflict on any timescale that signifies. It has all atrophied, except for the pricey anachronism of manned warplanes (and Boeing ain't looking too great right now).

And by the time the urgent threat becomes apparent, it will be too late to train up a new generation.

TL:DR  Civilian industrial power = military power. Full stop.

Whom was it here who used to have the sigline: 'those who beat their swords into plowshares will end up plowing for those who don't'?

Edited 6 hours ago by LongLeftFlank

[ArmouredTopHat]

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1fms95p/french_milan_lightweight_infantry_antitank/

MILAN in action on the front.

[ArmouredTopHat]

Kornet knocking out a Bradley at Pokrovsk, though the crew seem to escape despite the potency of such a system (assuming it was carrying no dismounts) Really shows the survivability of such a vehicle as Dimitri indicates when I imagine a BMP would do its best to launch its occupants into space. 

Edited 6 hours ago by ArmouredTopHat

[sburke]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

10,000 a week seems a bit low. 

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html

Last spring they were firing 10k per day (back in ‘22 they were up at 50-60k). If they really are at 1400-1500 per day now then they were already in trouble.

does seem that way, but not sure when we last had a decent estimate.  How many barrels have they gone through, how difficult is it for them to sustain supply to the firing units?  When every link in the chain has been getting slowly degraded it has to have some impact.

Next question is, they need to replenish.  Undoubtedly that means going back to Kim.  So they get a few more trainloads of ammo and they store them... where?  I am pretty sure the 107th and 23rd GRAUs aren't gonna be fit for duty anytime soon.  The logistical system just took a body blow.   They need a location fit for rail delivery that is also a usable hub for the next level down in ammo delivery.  WTF are they gonna do, find a nice siding and just dump it out on the side of the tracks?  That sounds like an excellent plan!

Edited 5 hours ago by sburke

[Eug85]

Well-known Ukrainian military observer Konstantin Mashovets. Comments on the unsuccessful tests of the Russian nuclear missile Sarmat. He claims that Russia's strategic nuclear weapons are very outdated, which is why the Russians are in such a hurry to replace them.

The Kremlin's attempts to scare everyone with its nuclear missiles have ended in confusion again...

We are talking about the RS-28 (aka "Sarmat"), the newest Russian silo-based strategic missile system...

A recent attempt to "test" it from an "object" in the Plesetsk area ended once again, to put it mildly, "abnormally"...

This is the Kremlin's main hope for replacing the Soviet R-36M (aka "Voevoda"), yes, this is the same strategic missile system 15p118M, known throughout the world by the classification of the USA and NATO as - SS-18 mod 1,2,3 "Satan", or in Ukrainian - "Satan", which, in fact, currently forms the basis of the SNF (strategic nuclear forces) of the Russian Federation...

And yes, you are right...

"Voevoda" was developed in the Yuzhnoye Design Bureau, and manufactured at Yuzhmash, in Dnepr. The control system was developed in Kharkov ("Khartron") and, accordingly, has not been "serviced" for quite a long time, which included "extending" the service life of the complex", a decision of the Cabinet of Ministers (2023).

That is why the Russians are in a hurry to replace, say, the Ukrainian "Voevoda", with their own missile system "Sarmat"...

At present, the history of "tests" of the Russian "Sarmat", well, let's say, "is not very successful in terms of reputation", the latest attempt to "show off" from Plesetsk only "aggravated" it...

Putting all this together, any adequate person will have questions about the real technical condition of the Russian strategic nuclear forces, at least about their main part - silo-based missiles...

Apparently another reason Putin needs Ukraine is to be able to service his old Soviet missiles. Without it, Russia's nuclear forces are in danger of losing their combat capability.

https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/2200

[omae2]

2 hours ago, poesel said:

I'm not going to underestimate China. I know the country a bit, been there quite often. But there are two things to consider:

1. China currently reclaims its status as '#1 country to produce stuff' - a spot it held from after the Romans until ~1750. Its downfall was self-inflicted and greatly helped by the British. China's comeback is only natural.
2. There is no magical Chinese bullet. China will (and does) have the same problems as anyone else. They do some things better, some worse. Their current overproduction is not sustainable and they know it. Hence, the price wars.

Unless China literally pulls the trigger (and I doubt they will), it will sort itself out in a decade or so. Not without trouble, of course. That would be boring.

If they manage to push out most of their competitors thru price they can shrink the European industries. There was YouTube video about this:

 

Basically EU wants Green but lack the resources to produce a lot of green stuff cheap, china owns a lot of resources and pushing into Africa to get more. They get not just the money and resources but they shrink the European industry in the same time as well.

[dan/california]

7 hours ago, Eug85 said:

During a discussion about the problems of replenishing commanders in the Ukrainian armed forces, a Ukrainian tanker claims that many officers who come by assignment do not meet the requirements of the position they hold. Units do not want to let smart sergeants go to officer courses, since there is a high probability that this smart person will not return to them, but will be sent to another unit.

Pretty sure the Roman legions had similar issues. 

[Eug85]

The successful testing of the Sarmat missile was supposed to further frighten Westerners, lend weight to Putin's recent threats, and give a trump card to pro-Putin politicians in the West who are intimidating their citizens with Russia's power and the need to negotiate with Russia. But things did not go according to plan.