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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

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11 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Interesting to see how artillery has evolved in terms of operating practise. I imagine tanks are used in similar ways. Go out, shoot and then scuttle back to safety. Mobility is useful, but ultimately having shelter matters more. 

Yes and no. The most serious issue confronting the UKR is their inability to organize a safe march owing to the scale of the drone problem, a lack of resources, and, most crucially, the slowness of traditional officers to adjust to the drone reality. UKR drone guys know what to do, but artillery units are commanded by arty officers who are obviously unskilled in drone warfare.

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38 minutes ago, Grigb said:

And as far as I can tell, the UKR avoid using ATGMs and DF until absolutely necessary

It's exists more sad explaination. In many brigades ATGM crews were moved to infantry because of lack of personnel. And most tasks of AT-defense was put on sappers and FPV crews. But with appearance of "blyatbarn" tanks turned out FPV too hard to penetrate it, so ATGMs again recover own actuality.

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11 hours ago, Joe982 said:

I read somewhere that Russians founda tunnel and used it to come up behind a Ukranian line causing the loss of that district.

Next we hear that North Koreans are sending engineer soldiers to Russia. The thinking is that the North Koreans will dig tunnels and come up behind the Ukranians.

Has anybody heard anything on this?

 

Yes.

Quote

Why we got a breakthrough of the front near Toretsk: details...

On May 14, 2024, the assault groups of the volunteer brigade "Veterans" of the Center group of troops began digging an underground tunnel to the rear of the Ukrainian troops' defending units in preparation for offensive actions to break through the heavily fortified enemy defense line near the settlement of Pivnichnoye (Kirovo).

Previously, a similar method of reaching the enemy's rear through a tunnel was used during the storming of the AFU positions (fortified region "Tsarskaya Okhota") to the south-west of Avdiivka. The tunnel was built from Mayorsk along the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal to the highway to Pivnichnoye (Kirovo). The tunnel's entire length exceeded 3 kilometers.

With the start of the assault operations on June 17, 2024, the assault groups concentrated in the tunnel and, at the predetermined time, used surprise to overrun the rear of the forward units of the 401 separate infantry battalion of the 41st seprate infantry brigade of the AFU. This method of attack resulted in surprise and facilitated the assault units' breakthrough to the eastern outskirts of Pivnichnoye (Kirovo).Using the surprise element, troops were successful in entirely capturing the stronghold on the eastern fringes of Pivnichnoye (Kirovo), compelling the opposition to surrender or abandon positions and retreat.

This technique appears to be becoming a systematic one for us, rather than a one-time event. This helps you to prevent losses while simultaneously achieving results that exceed your expectations.

Video from the tunnel

Fun fact - I know one RU unit named Veterans. They are essentially an RU MOD sanctioned mob. It is a unit of mobik slaves led by career criminals.

I would say to RU command put pressure on criminals to come up with something (else, criminals would be forced to assault themselves). Criminals were like, "Let mobik slaves dig the tunnel or be anal raped." So, mobiks slaves dug the tunnel.

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1 hour ago, Grigb said:

It is against big slow bombers like Baba Yaga. 

You place this mine, then set up a fake weapon position (with ad hoc source of heat) and wait for the bomber to come. Bomber usually stops for couple of seconds during drop. Once it stopped you blow the mine up. Apparently, it works. Not always but often enough.

I stand corrected. I'd never have guessed that this contraption would have an effect but for some lucky hits.

Time to teach the Baba Yagas to lob their bombs from a few meters off.

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1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Few could be hit by mines. One of the UKR's tactics is to promptly drop a mine as soon as they see RU vehicles making a new path. Your lead vehicle moves forward. Reports that everything is normal. The second vehicle tries to catch up following the same path, only to experince a kaboomb from a mine placed by a drone behind the lead vehicle.

Yup, and that is what I had in mind.  The thing is, remote placement of mines (so far) is more-or-less a hit and run sort of thing, where a significant effort is made to drop off a couple of mines.  Which is fine, because the effect is disproportionately positive compared to the effort.  It's just that you're not going to take out a dozen or two dozen vehicles in this way.  At least not yet!  We have talked about various forms of self deploying mines that are surely going to happen at some point.

Steve

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17 minutes ago, poesel said:

I stand corrected. I'd never have guessed that this contraption would have an effect but for some lucky hits.

Time to teach the Baba Yagas to lob their bombs from a few meters off.

This gets back to my post a couple of pages ago about the differences in ISR drones as targets.  The bigger they are, the slower and more predictably they move.  They are also fewer in number, generally being used one at a time per sector.  This presents more options to take them out of action.  It is the FPV's small size, extreme maneuverability, and potential for many at the same time that makes them so damned difficult to deal with.

Steve

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1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup, and that is what I had in mind.  The thing is, remote placement of mines (so far) is more-or-less a hit and run sort of thing, where a significant effort is made to drop off a couple of mines.  Which is fine, because the effect is disproportionately positive compared to the effort.  It's just that you're not going to take out a dozen or two dozen vehicles in this way.  At least not yet!  We have talked about various forms of self deploying mines that are surely going to happen at some point.

Steve

34fc3e6c-988bc34a6c0f45d16d16209c6897fd5

It only needs the right software.

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Yesterday Russians hit with two Iskander-M the military train on Budy railway station 18 km SW from Kharkiv. Again. Russian UAV about had been tracking the station, but nobody care neither to shoot it down, nor just move the train (why it arrived here in daylight?). On the video you can see first impact, but since 30 minutes, when police and Emergency Service arived, they lauched the second missile. As result as you can see were destroyed at least one armor and two trucks. Officially was reported about death of police officer and chief of district Emergency Service. 25 civilians were wounded in hoses near railroad and close to the station (directly before a strike suburb electro train has arrived)

 

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Unique operation was completed in Chasiv Yar vicinity - soldiers of 24th mech brigade breached the corridor and resqued combined detachment of 223rd and 225th battalions of 126th TD brigade, which during 70 days held own positions in encirclement. All this time ammunition, food, water, medical kits were delivered by drones for them

Reportedly in forestry areas aside Canal microdistrct of Chasiv Yar town still several such detachments, which continue resisting in full encirclement.

 

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11 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Unique operation was completed in Chasiv Yar vicinity - soldiers of 24th mech brigade breached the corridor and resqued combined detachment of 223rd and 225th battalions of 126th TD brigade, which during 70 days held own positions in encirclement. All this time ammunition, food, water, medical kits were delivered by drones for them

Reportedly in forestry areas aside Canal microdistrct of Chasiv Yar town still several such detachments, which continue resisting in full encirclement.

 

someday a book will be written about this I bet.  

It's so obvious that drones are a great option for resupplying difficult to reach (or cut off) positions.   I wonder what payload is?  And what distance can travel with what payload? 

 I think we'll be seeing drones w ~110kg capacity that will be used for evacuating the wounded.  but once you have that you also have the ability to deliver a soldier.  I think this will be a way to do airmobile operations over a short distance, like a river, in the future.  Deliver platoon- or  company-sized group behind enemy riverbank defenses to engage & clear before boats bring the battalion across.  Is this dangerous?  Yes, until compared to helicopter assault with big noisy easy to shoot helos instead of a dozens of individual drones.  Drones can come in really low and deliver a group into a tight area that's already been scouted as safe by regular drones.  Unit then deploys out to attack the defenders from flanks & rear.

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Bad news. Russians managed to occupy again Urozhaine village on Berdiansk direction. During several days they were gadually pushing UKR troops from southern and central part, today reportedly they assaulted northern part of village with two companies, when UKR toops had there no more than 20 soldiers.  

Early some voices blamed the command of 1st tank brigade in lost of Staromajorske. Looks like the same command style led to loss of Urozhaine. 

Image

Good news. 

UKR troops pushed back Russians in Vovchansk (blue zone), so situation of Russian garrison, encircled on aggregate factory is getting worse 

Image

UKR troops pushed back beyond the border Russian troops, which captured border village Sotnytskyi Kozachok in Kahrkiv oblast - this is other direction than Hlyboke - Starytsia - Vovchansk section it is NW from Kharkiv. Two weeks ago Russian recon group enterd to the border village and Russians became accumulate infantry in this place. UKR troops blocked them, and now pushed back. On the video as background soldier of some Territorial Troops unit of DNR complains they were sent to assault the village, thoug they were moved here to maintain security of "liberated territory". Their company suffered huge losses, but comamnder of motor rifle regiment, under which comamnd their company was attached, anyway orders them continue to fight.

 

Edited by Haiduk
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First video of special unit "Shkval" (of former covicted) from 47th mech. brigade. They assault Russian position somewhere on Pokrovsk direction

Interesting, that in Russian special assault detachments was named "Shtotm" (eng. Storm). Ukriane went the same way and named them "Shkval" (eng. Squall ). For this time about 3500 former convicts agreed to mobilize. First units already on frontline. It's known about "Shkval" detachments in 47th mech. brigade, 59th mot.inf brigade and 3rd assault brigade. Unlike in Russia only persons, convicted on minor charges are allowed to mobilize. Not murderers, robbers, rapers, pedophiles, corruptioners etc.

Edited by Haiduk
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Not first time this situation - Russians, hearing UAV engine sound freeze in place. Maybe in some field manual this directive exists - what to do if enemy drone over your head. Maybe they considered UAV operator will not spot them, standing without movement, but.... the SHADOWS!!!!

 

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6 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Got to say that the last few years the "democratic" side of the world has been surprisingly proactively violent. 

There have been murder attempts against conservative political figures like the extreme right wingers were practicing in the past. 

As a democratic leaning person, I don't think I like where this is going. 

Too much violence, not enough content. 

Edit : The background /motives of the shooter are not clear yet so my point could be premature. 

premature, but the underlying point is simply that we are getting more sharply divided and political violence is on the rise.  Hell you have that guy in GA saying "some people need to be killed".  I would hesitate to say that "the "democratic" side of the world has been surprisingly proactively violent."  The most violent extremists in the US are not on the democratic side.  Far Right militia extremists have been the main purveyors of violence and need we have to remember the Jan 6th assault on the capitol?  The conspiracy peddling on social media (in part thanks to that hero of democratic values Elon Musk) is freakin ridiculous.

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2 hours ago, Grigb said:

34fc3e6c-988bc34a6c0f45d16d16209c6897fd5

It only needs the right software.

Yikes!!!!  I've got two of these little guys in my closet.  Granted, non of them have mines attached.  Dang that's scary, especially if terminal guidance is some kind of motion detector to throw off ECM directed at it.

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14 minutes ago, Probus said:

Yikes!!!!  I've got two of these little guys in my closet.  Granted, non of them have mines attached.  Dang that's scary, especially if terminal guidance is some kind of motion detector to throw off ECM directed at it.

And those are simple dumb mines. What happens when someone figures out how to mount a SMART system on a UGV?

https://cat-uxo.com/explosive-hazards/submunitions/dm-1490-submunition

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Explosively_formed_penetrator

If Iraqi insurgents figured out how to stick them in trees, someone is going to mass produce them and stick them on cheap UGVs.  These things can hide just about anywhere and do not even need a human operator.  

S’ok I am sure that a company will produce a $20 million gun to take care of it.


 

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3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Spider legs - that is the nightmare.  Damn thing could hide and go anywhere.

Well besides that we don't have anything better to move on the ground than wheels. Your mobile mines are at least one mechanical revolution away.

The mobility problem of small land vehicles can not be solved by better batteries or more processing power. 

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https://mastodon.social/@noelreports@mstdn.social/112786568169255033

Quote

Footage from the tests of the "BULLET" jet UAV that is reportedly able to intercept reconnaissance or strike drones and engage helicopters. Although its specifications are unknown, the video reveals the drone reached a speed of 130 km/h. The cost of a system, which includes five UAVs and a ground station, is 5.8 million UAH (€130,000).

 

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