How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[ArmouredTopHat]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is interesting and very important.

We saw Russian propaganda, backed by cautiously optimistic bloggers, that Russia was cranking up standardized drone production on a massive scale.  Then we saw an increase in Russian drones at the front, noted by both sides.  However, we also saw complaints from Russian sources that there were lots of quality and design problems with the mass produced drones.

Now we have this article that makes it sound like the bump in Russian FPVs was temporary as replacements are not equaled or exceeded the numbers being used.  Without evidence of why, the article states that bureaucracy, funding, and sole sourcing (i.e. corruption) is what's behind this trend.  It's probable that all three are indeed happening (this is Russia after all!), but I'm really curious about the funding allegation.

It seems odd that Russia is under investing in something that it clearly understands is a critical frontline component.  They are spending wildly in other areas, such as reviving old vehicles and securing munitions from abroad.  As we've discussed endlessly, you can get truckloads of FPVs for the same cost as a bunch of artillery shells.  We also know that Russia isn't shy about wasting money on this war.  So what gives?

I suspect that there are other issues that the article didn't take into consideration that are hindering production.  In particular shortages of critical components, either due to sanctions, poor logistics, supply chain corruption, or simply very poor project management.

I doubt we'll get much meaningful information on what is really going on, though we might get hints (e.g. some drone factory worker saying they went home for the week because they had no parts).

Whatever the reason for Russia's trouble producing drones might be, I hope it doubles

I recall those same sources indicating / complaining that Russian FPVs were susceptible to jamming quite a bit more than Ukrainian drones due to all being on a similar control frequency. Its possible loss rate was much higher as a result hence the rapid burning through stockpiles. Saw frequent Russian complaints about the quality of the drones as well.

I suspect the primary issue is the corrupt bureaucracy in Russia, as Perun states its a feature, not a bug and very much strangles these sorts of independent initiatives to the point of being stillborn. Ukraine has clearly done a far better job despite the resource mismatch.

I'll give FPV drones one thing that I perhaps did not consider before, the Russians can do literally diddly squat about hitting the production lines to any significant degree in Ukraine either, its so widely dispersed across the country that Russia would need to raze the entire country to the country before actually hampering its production. (They do seem to be trying that though) As long as Ukraine gets the money and components, its people can build FPVs in literal sheds.

[ArmouredTopHat]

Fascinating look at a turtle tank example captured recently by Ukraine. This one is an especially sorry example. 

Russia propagandists claim these are a sign of evolution against drone threats, I see them as little more than desperation attempts to make old vehicles have some sort of spearhead role. This particular example is clearly an attempt to make something otherwise useless useful. I wonder what the point of even keeping the turret / gun is if neither were functional. 

Edited June 22 by ArmouredTopHat

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is interesting and very important.

We saw Russian propaganda, backed by cautiously optimistic bloggers, that Russia was cranking up standardized drone production on a massive scale.  Then we saw an increase in Russian drones at the front, noted by both sides.  However, we also saw complaints from Russian sources that there were lots of quality and design problems with the mass produced drones.

Now we have this article that makes it sound like the bump in Russian FPVs was temporary as replacements are not equaled or exceeded the numbers being used.  Without evidence of why, the article states that bureaucracy, funding, and sole sourcing (i.e. corruption) is what's behind this trend.  It's probable that all three are indeed happening (this is Russia after all!), but I'm really curious about the funding allegation.

It seems odd that Russia is under investing in something that it clearly understands is a critical frontline component.  They are spending wildly in other areas, such as reviving old vehicles and securing munitions from abroad.  As we've discussed endlessly, you can get truckloads of FPVs for the same cost as a bunch of artillery shells.  We also know that Russia isn't shy about wasting money on this war.  So what gives?

I suspect that there are other issues that the article didn't take into consideration that are hindering production.  In particular shortages of critical components, either due to sanctions, poor logistics, supply chain corruption, or simply very poor project management.

I doubt we'll get much meaningful information on what is really going on, though we might get hints (e.g. some drone factory worker saying they went home for the week because they had no parts).

Whatever the reason for Russia's trouble producing drones might be, I hope it doubles

Steve

Probably all of the above.  For Russia right now the problem is offensive action.  I suspect there is enormous pressure from “the boss” to demonstrate offensive success any way possible.  He is trying to promote the idea that “Russia will never run dry”.  So the industrial base is pushing out everything and anything that looks remotely offensive, any way they can.  FPVs are part of this, but as we have seen, no one has been able to use these weapons offensively - they are primarily defensive.

Add in the normal production woes in Russia, industrial competition and corruption etc, and one has a recipe for a train wreck.

[ASL Veteran]

don't know if this was already posted or not

 

[LongLeftFlank]

14 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Shades of the Vietnam War and civilian management of target lists:

A new U.S. policy allowing Ukraine to fire certain American weapons at Russian territory has led to a reduction in some Russian attacks but still restricts.....

 

"Repeatplease?"

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Probably all of the above.  For Russia right now the problem is offensive action.  I suspect there is enormous pressure from “the boss” to demonstrate offensive success any way possible.  He is trying to promote the idea that “Russia will never run dry”.  So the industrial base is pushing out everything and anything that looks remotely offensive, any way they can.  FPVs are part of this, but as we have seen, no one has been able to use these weapons offensively - they are primarily defensive.

Add in the normal production woes in Russia, industrial competition and corruption etc, and one has a recipe for a train wreck.

Has there been a single Russian offensive in this war that has gone better or even as well as expected? I can’t think of one.

[LongLeftFlank]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Has there been a single Russian offensive in this war that has gone better or even as well as expected? I can’t think of one.

Except the one where they grabbed pretty much all Kherson oblast -- the one chunk of territory that Ukraine really does need to take back -- in the first week of hostilities?

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

As long as Ukraine gets the money and components, its people can build FPVs in literal sheds.

 

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/04/world/asia/myanmar-war-drones.html?searchResultPosition=1

Drones Changed This Civil War, and Linked Rebels to the World

Consumer technologies are altering the course of the battle in Myanmar, and rebel drone units are taking notes on Ukraine and other conflicts.

 

Quote

 

https://apnews.com/article/mexico-cartel-attack-guerrero-drones-helidoro-castillo-ed795770ce9a09b1c063d91913268b99

A drug cartel has attacked a remote Mexican community with drones and gunmen, rights group says.

 

 

Drones are an incredibly powerful asymmetric capability. They are being adopted very rapidly by rebel groups and large scale criminal organizations world wide.  NATO may find a workable technological solution for them, and invest the half a trillion dollars to build that solution at scale. There are still a vast swath of unhappy places out there with ongoing civil conflicts where drones are going to change the balance of power for decades, if not forever. 

[The_Capt]

14 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Has there been a single Russian offensive in this war that has gone better or even as well as expected? I can’t think of one.

Taking and holding the infamous strategic corridor in the south is probably about it.  They have linked the Crimea to the Donbas to Russia. To my mind it would be very nice if the UA cut that link…but we don’t really know how at this point.

Everything else has been bites and nibbles at simply ridiculous costs.  Weird sounds coming out of the Russian machine for at least a couple months now.  We will see if they mean anything.

[dan/california]

22 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Except the one where they grabbed pretty much all Kherson oblast -- the one chunk of territory that Ukraine really does need to take back -- in the first week of hostilities?

That really was the one place where the Russians had infiltrated the Ukrainian military was well as they thought they had. They thought the whole war was was going to work like that.

Edited Saturday at 04:33 PM by dan/california

[LongLeftFlank]

8 minutes ago, dan/california said:

That really was the one place where the Russians had infiltrated the Ukrainian military was well as they thought they had. They thought he whole war was was going to work like that.

Yup, and if we can think in postwar nonmilitary terms for just a moment, that entire Black Sea coast region:  (Odesa - Mikolaiv - Kherson - Dnipro)  is critical for Ukraine to develop, within the EU. But EU capitalists aren't gonna build (or finance) factories, wind/solar farms etc. there if it will all get bombed flat in the first moments of the sequel war.

....Hence my repetitive obsession with retaking Kinburn spit - Oleshky sands zone (left bank of the lower Dnpr). It's not what's on that land, it's what's next to it.  Russia simply cannot be allowed control of the south bank of the Dpro.  Gotta starve or burn em out before any ceasefire can be contemplated, IMHO.

Edited Saturday at 04:36 PM by LongLeftFlank

[TheVulture]

43 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Has there been a single Russian offensive in this war that has gone better or even as well as expected? I can’t think of one.

The Russian push north west from Crimea to Kherson is the most likely success story, actually making it across the Dneipr, taking a major city and pushing onward for a while.

Obviously not a complete success,  since they were meant to get to Odessa along the coast, and up to Kyiv up the western side of the Dneipr, and in the end weren't able to hold Kherson or the right bank for that long, but it was probably the most successful and competent action by the Russian army. 

[billbindc]

47 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Except the one where they grabbed pretty much all Kherson oblast -- the one chunk of territory that Ukraine really does need to take back -- in the first week of hostilities?

I would argue that that offensive was aimed at Odessa without which it fell far short of objectives. 

[FancyCat]

Quote

Serbia has been discreetly stepping up sales of ammunition to the west that ends up bolstering the defence of Ukraine — even though it is one of only two European countries not to join western sanctions against Russia, @AlecuRussell and @mdunai report.

 

[Battlefront.com]

31 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I would argue that that offensive was aimed at Odessa without which it fell far short of objectives. 

And it was marred by some pretty horrendous f'ups, like the helicopter landings that were wiped out further west of Kherson City.  The column that made it as far as Bashtanka was beaten up badly and retreated as there was nobody on their flanks.  This was only days after the invasion.

We also saw evidence that Russia was planning an amphibious landing somewhere east of Odessa, but when they couldn't get even as far as Mykolaiv they called that off.  The evidence was amphibious assault ships (3 IIRC) that at one point apparently had Marines on them, then they dropped them back in Crimea, and then sailed around empty as a bluff.  Ukraine hit one of them with a missile, though I don't think it sunk.

Anyway, the very initial phase of the assault into Ukraine, including seizing the bridge, dam, and power plant did go very well.  That was achieved in the first few days and certainly was partly the result of Ukraine not dedicating enough resources to keep the Russians bottled up in Crimea.  However, after those initial successes they didn't achieve what they wanted and what they did achieve cost them way more than expected.  Certainly Mariupol did not go as planned.

Steve

[Vanir Ausf B]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Now we have this article that makes it sound like the bump in Russian FPVs was temporary as replacements are not equaled or exceeded the numbers being used. 

Adding to the confusion is that some Ukrainian commanders have been quoted saying it's the Russians who have the FPV advantage.

"In priority frontline sectors, we have the following ratio: one of our drones to five or seven enemy drones,” Fedorenko said.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/one-ukrainian-drone-is-up-against-seven-russian-drones-says-achilles-platoon-commander-50375721.html

 

[dan/california]

33 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Adding to the confusion is that some Ukrainian commanders have been quoted saying it's the Russians who have the FPV advantage.

"In priority frontline sectors, we have the following ratio: one of our drones to five or seven enemy drones,” Fedorenko said.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/one-ukrainian-drone-is-up-against-seven-russian-drones-says-achilles-platoon-commander-50375721.html

 

Every front line soldier thinks the other side has everything, and his own support sucks. That is very close to a truism.

 

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Every front line soldier thinks the other side has everything, and his own support sucks. That is very close to a truism.

 

That and it could be true for that sector at that time.  "We were getting hammered by King Tigers and there was nothing we could do about it!  We are at such a disadvantage".  Meanwhile, on the 98% of the frontline that had never seen a King Tiger at all, ever, the story was a bit different

Steve

[Offshoot]

9 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Russia propagandists claim these are a sign of evolution against drone threats, I see them as little more than desperation attempts to make old vehicles have some sort of spearhead role. This particular example is clearly an attempt to make something otherwise useless useful. I wonder what the point of even keeping the turret / gun is if neither were functional. 

There was a reported example of a turtle tank that had had it's turret removed, though it's function was apparently to remove mines rather than transport troops - This T-62 Tank With No Gun, A Metal Shell And Mine-Rollers Was Russia’s Best Turtle Tank

After the Tsar tank, I had assumed that the Russians were packing EW equipment inside the shells in order to protect the whole assault column and in a few instances they might have. Now I wonder if they are a bit of a meme that caught hold in the Russian army because something is better than nothing for desperate soldiers tasked with assaulting.

It's possible they point to other, perhaps just local issues as well. Is it really better for a local commander to gut a tank for troop transport than to get it refurbished? If the chance of getting it refurbished is very low, then probably.

[danfrodo]

Some stuff I hadn't seen on the forum yet.  Moscow yacht club on fire, allegedly arson.  Is there anyone more oppressed than the world's billionaires?

 

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/6/22/2247962/-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-Moscow-yacht-club-goes-up-in-flames?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

[dan/california]

LLF, ask and you shall recieve.

[dan/california]

It is literally a slightly upgraded V1. Still a problem, though.

 

[Général_Hiver]

15 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

What the hell was the Putin visit to North Korea? He was driving Kim around as his driver in a car? Waving at him from plane? 

Is Russia doing that badly, or what? This is just surreal.

Or did world really supposed to end in 2012 and is the simulation getting more absurd every year.

There's a line in the Matrix where Agent Smith tells Morpheus that the reason they set their Lotus Eater Machine in 1999 is that this was the peak of human civilisation. I think about that line a lot these days.

[zinz]

highly interesting interview with German.

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Général_Hiver said:

There's a line in the Matrix where Agent Smith tells Morpheus that the reason they set their Lotus Eater Machine in 1999 is that this was the peak of human civilisation. I think about that line a lot these days.

1999…pshh.  There will only ever be one peak of civilization, the decade of: