Jump to content

How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Anonymous partisans used FPV strike drones to hit vehicles in a Russian military construction site over the UA-RU border in the Bryansk region (Russia).

Maybe not partisans... There are many rumors we have now long-range analog of Lancet. Russian milbloggers complain unknown UKR FPVs are now capable to strike positions and vehicles in distant rear. 

Previously we had our RAM II and limited number of Switchblade 600. Maybe now we have upgraded RAM II with longer range or completely new drone. Several days ago there was a video how UKR kamikadze drones damage newest radar Kasta-M on Russian territory

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Maybe not partisans... There are many rumors we have now long-range analog of Lancet. Russian milbloggers complain unknown UKR FPVs are now capable to strike positions and vehicles in distant rear. 

Previously we had our RAM II and limited number of Switchblade 600. Maybe now we have upgraded RAM II with longer range or completely new drone. Several days ago there was a video how UKR kamikadze drones damage newest radar Kasta-M on Russian territory

Yes, seen multiple things this week that imply Ukrainian drones are operating at much greater depth. I also give a small percentage that the dump truck video was insurance fraud by some enterprising vatniks.

Edited by dan/california
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Macron is a French politician, fill in your joke of choice here

Hmmm, says an American who has never lived under a Nazi occupation...

Look yes he is a politician but he is likely to lose votes for his current stance and is being attacked by the extreme right wing of French politics who are saying he will drag France into a war.

The French know what it is like to be invaded and occupied by a brutal right wing dictatorship.

With the current 80 year anniversary of the beginning of their freedom thoughts turn to another European country suffering the same.

France has wisely remained independent of American tech for both their air force and nuclear weapons.

So before taking cheap shots think a bit deeper...

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Would Russia have been able to build the southern defensive line it did with Ukraine's current (and future) drone capabilities? 

Yes, but…

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

My guess is yes, but those minefields would have been much further south. 

Yuuuuup. FPVs, 10-20km further south. Much scarier autonomous FPVs in quantity? Another 10-20km further south again. With good enough ISR, to the point where you could detect trucks full of mines, and enough drones to hit a good amount of them, maybe you’d have a chance, but each time you have to go 10km further it is much harder.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd like to point out that the vote for the EU parliament ends this Sunday (which is tomorrow or today, depending on where and when you read this).

So it is much more interesting what European politicians will say and do next week than this week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Holien said:

Hmmm, says an American who has never lived under a Nazi occupation...

Look yes he is a politician but he is likely to lose votes for his current stance and is being attacked by the extreme right wing of French politics who are saying he will drag France into a war.

The French know what it is like to be invaded and occupied by a brutal right wing dictatorship.

With the current 80 year anniversary of the beginning of their freedom thoughts turn to another European country suffering the same.

France has wisely remained independent of American tech for both their air force and nuclear weapons.

So before taking cheap shots think a bit deeper...

 

After Donald Trump, Boris Johnson, and Gerhard "the gas man:" Schroeder, no one is exactly covering themselves in glory. Macron has at least looked at the evidence and changed his mind, which shouldn't make him a giant among his generation of leaders, but actually kind of does.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

Yes, but…

Yuuuuup. FPVs, 10-20km further south. Much scarier autonomous FPVs in quantity? Another 10-20km further south again. With good enough ISR, to the point where you could detect trucks full of mines, and enough drones to hit a good amount of them, maybe you’d have a chance, but each time you have to go 10km further it is much harder.

Yeah, I regret not qualifying my question to be "could they have built them where they built them"?  I don't think so, or at least not nearly as dense as they were.  Whether they would have been smart enough to make positions further back, or not, is a separate question.  Russians have been inconsistently pragmatic about Ukraine's abilities, requiring several spankings before acknowledging reality and adjusting.

Steve

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, I regret qualifying my question to be "could they have built them where they built them"?  I don't think so, or at least not nearly as dense as they were.  Whether they would have been smart enough to make positions further back, or not, is a separate question.  Russians have been inconsistently pragmatic about Ukraine's abilities, requiring several spankings before acknowledging reality and adjusting.

Steve

If those minefields, and all the fortifications that went with the were 20 km further back it would matter a LOT more on the land bridge that it might in a lot of other places. If the Ukrainians had been able to advance 20 km on a broad front across the land a bridge a LOT more territory and infrastructure would be in 155 range. That would meaningfully effect the viability of. the whole thing.

If Robotyne was firmly in Ukrainian hands with several kilometers of cushion, instead of a grey zone that is suicidal for anything bigger than a mouse, Ukrainian 155 SPGs would be in range of Melitipol or very near it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

After Donald Trump, Boris Johnson, and Gerhard "the gas man:" Schroeder, no one is exactly covering themselves in glory. Macron has at least looked at the evidence and changed his mind, which shouldn't make him a giant among his generation of leaders, but actually kind of does.

Australia waves.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Quote

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/comments/1dbbwu6/feature_gate_to_siversk_ua_54th_mechanized/

[Feature] Gate to Siversk: UA 54th Mechanized Brigade's "Battalion K-2" drone team posted a feature length video showing Ukrainian defenders' battle to repel Russian infantry assaults. YouTube version link in comments. [Part 3 of 3] Published June 8, 2024

 

 

Detailed look at trench fighting, At one point a Ukrainian drone starts dropping grenades 10 meters from their own guys.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Long video with detailed after action commentary from a CO (who mentions a Hajduk being in charge of a D-30 at one stage) showing RU attempting infiltration of UKR 54th brigade position.  Believe this is the same spot seen previously being assaulted with armour.  Is sub-titled if you turn them on.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Fenris said:

Long video with detailed after action commentary from a CO (who mentions a Hajduk being in charge of a D-30 at one stage) showing RU attempting infiltration of UKR 54th brigade position.  Believe this is the same spot seen previously being assaulted with armour.  Is sub-titled if you turn them on.

 

Very interesting, many thanks.

This would be a Tiny scenario in CM terms, albeit with 'oversized' trench lines. That was a lot of digging... no AP mines in evidence, seems like Mavics fill that niche too now?

Interesting that they vacated a corner of the trench line to invite the vatniks in, but also demolished the dugouts to create a coverless drone shooting gallery.

Note also Russian use of smoke at 23:10 or so, although no other RU fire support is in evidence. It keeps striking me that there's nothing the Ukes are doing here that the Russians couldn't (in theory) be doing right back.... I suppose ISR is the key bottleneck for them? Probably the same reason they're doing this by daylight; at night, situation awareness would go to zero.

No doubt they trying to do it in places, but as so many have observed here, if you don't fight the new way, why even bother with these meat assaults?

The Ukes have clearly denuded their trench lines so 'recon by death' is of pretty limited value, they just shift around before the next attack.

Finally, I haven't seen much evidence of the VDV lately? I have no evidence one way or the other, but I wonder, have they perhaps been pulled back to refit and retrain in the 'new warfare'? Teplinski is still in charge of ground forces, and he's a desantnik, and not stupid either.

(They're also an essential praetorian force to keep the rest of the Army onside, so letting them become combat ineffective due to losses is a multidensional problem)

Edited by LongLeftFlank
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Carolus said:

 

Drone attack on North Ossetia airfield might have damaged a Su-57 as per ru FighterBomber.

 

This is other airfield in Astrakhan' oblast. Airfield in N.Osetia is Mozdok.

The report about attack on this airfield has appeared yesterday in one UKR TG, but I didn't post about this, because information was unverified. 

In 2012 India was going to order SU-57 for 100 million $ for a jet. Of cource, this is export price

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This is other airfield in Astrakhan' oblast. Airfield in N.Osetia is Mozdok.

The report about attack on this airfield has appeared yesterday in one UKR TG, but I didn't post about this, because information was unverified. 

In 2012 India was going to order SU-57 for 100 million $ for a jet. Of cource, this is export price

Thanks for the geographic correction. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, dan/california said:

I am sure this list is far rom perfect, a there is a bias towards drones because the footage is automatic, but still.

And if those were listed as tank kills, JonS would be on here crowing from the rooftops.  The question is, what percentage of all Russian kills/damage are due to FPVs?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, I regret not qualifying my question to be "could they have built them where they built them"?  I don't think so, or at least not nearly as dense as they were.  Whether they would have been smart enough to make positions further back, or not, is a separate question.  Russians have been inconsistently pragmatic about Ukraine's abilities, requiring several spankings before acknowledging reality and adjusting.

Steve

What is a more interesting question is whether or not the UA could have kept going in Fall ‘22 if they had another 100k FPVs? It is not like the UA would simply stop and then deny a line 10-20kms deep if they had the means to keep pushing.

Of course if the UA had another ABCT in the pocket they likely could have kept going as well, but generating an extra ABCT is exponentially costlier than those FPVs.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

You know…I don’t think that IFV has enough extra stuff piled onto it….

Yeah.  I have a feeling turrets are going to look a lot different in the future. 

I wonder if there will be a return to well armored Stug III type vehicles with really good multi purpose armor on all sides and an assault gun in the front. Giving APS systems a clear view 360 degrees.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Probus said:

Yeah.  I have a feeling turrets are going to look a lot different in the future. 

I wonder if there will be a return to well armored Stug III type vehicles with really good multi purpose armor on all sides and an assault gun in the front. Giving APS systems a clear view 360 degrees.

Ground vehicles are going to need to start thinking about stealth:

https://www.iai.co.il/p/eli-2058-tactical-isr-aerial-system

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...