How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Holien]

 

Looks like the AD did a good job if true?

Hopefully it didn't disturb our friends in Ukraine?

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Offshoot said:

Yeah, the auto-translate says that inertia carried the drone into the grad. Given both cases of changing target, I'm curious if the software has been tuned to prioritise moving targets and if that is a good thing (e.g. breaking off to chase a soldier rather than going after the high-value vehicle). And also, if this is the case and they become more common, what contraptions the Russians will come up with to try and spoof the drones - cope-cages could be joined by cope-carousels or carriage footmen.

Auto-targeting, along with full autonomy is an emerging technology.  I suspect plenty of bugs as they continue to evolve.  I think it is more likely that we will see humans doing the target selection from a distance and then the UAS will do the “last mile”.  This essentially makes an FPV a flying Javelin - which is pretty much what Spike NLOS is.  Targeting errors etc are all just part of the package.

The good news is that the FPV is no longer susceptible to standard EW on its kill-run.  And considering that airborne ISR can see out kms a controller/sight drone could designate multiple targets 5-10kms back and then launch an autonomous swarm at an entire target set, essentially immune to EW.  Considering that this swarm has been queued by higher level ISR going up to space, it will mean that the ability to deny the RA is likely on an upward trajectory.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

57 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Did he say why?  

Not yet, he keeps mentioning a future episode discussing drones in more depth. 

Although the comment about drones being better on the defensive usually appears in comparison to conventional artillery, from which I deduce that pursuant to Koffman it is the tube artillery which has offensive advantages. My guess is he refers to the fact, that during an offensive against enemy hiding  in field fortifications, artillery needs to shoot up trenches, which requires large amounts of HE on target in short time, which drones cannot match, and anyway it would be uneconomical to try to do so .

[Haiduk]

11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

It's interesting that we started this war totally impressed with how artillery could be better directed by drone.  In this video I'm reminded how ineffective artillery is, compared to drones, against fast moving targets no matter how well directed it might be.

Steve

Hm.... In this video at least 2 targets were disabled with direct or close hits of single D-30 and FPV has appeared only at the end, when survived tank already retreated. Of course, artillery fire on moving targets is not effective, but Russians were making some stops during the movement, which opened a window of opportunity for D-30 and MT-12. If we had more barrels, it could be more effective (though we could have enough barrels, but not enough shells)

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Not yet, he keeps mentioning a future episode discussing drones in more depth. 

Although the comment about drones being better on the defensive usually appears in comparison to conventional artillery, from which I deduce that pursuant to Koffman it is the tube artillery which has offensive advantages. My guess is he refers to the fact, that during an offensive against enemy hiding  in field fortifications, artillery needs to shoot up trenches, which requires large amounts of HE on target in short time, which drones cannot match, and anyway it would be uneconomical to try to do so .

Considering that the UA is taking 100k FPVs per month I am not sure the traditional suppression of fortified positions paradigm holds up.  The UA have already demonstrated that through the use of PGM they can employ far less gun rounds to shoot up trenches.  Extending that to FPVs, essentially precision flying mortar rounds, I can see no reason why these could not be employed in an offensive manner.

Further, we are not looking at a stovepiped system here.  FPVs are going to be employed in cooperation with artillery.  Each a sub-system in an overall Firepower capability.  FPVs have advantages that artillery does not and vice versa.  What FPVs do is take the load off of artillery.  We do not need massed guns in order to successfully conduct offensives.  We are able to achieve the same effects via other means, or combinations of means.

Upscaling FPV employment has just as much offensive potential as it does defensively.  What is missing is an ability to exploit and break out past an enemy defensive system…because they are using UAS as well.  What we really need is local UAS superiority as a concept.

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Holien said:

Looks like the AD did a good job if true?

Hopefully it didn't disturb our friends in Ukraine?

It's because the attack was all directed on Kyiv with strongest AD shield in Ukraine. If each city had the same protection, the total result would be like this.

It was at 5:00 I heard two Patriots launches, then heavy boom so windows shaken. It was Kinzhal or Iskander interception - it came from NE direction, were my district is located, so interception of ballistic missiles add some adrenaline %) Then, since 5 minutes one more (aero)ballistic target was destroyed, but slightly further. Then I heard 2-3 distant booms - all other missiles flew from western direction and were intercepted there - it's too far from me. 

 But anyway, several Kh-101 were intercepted over the city and hit the ground in residental areas  - 12 citizens were wounded. Damaged several buildings, one workshop, kindergarden, church, local power substation. Several cars burnt. 

Here fragment of missile impacted on the street not far from one of specific object %) and damaged buildings around - probably warhead detonated. 

Here of course "underground command bunker was destroyed" )))

People of this house were really lucky...

... Because warhead of intercepted Kh-101 fell down directly near the building and didn't explode

Of course, Russian MoD made a statement "the strike, including Kinzhal missiles was performed on decision making centers - all targets were hit". Ok. 390 millions USD to nowhere. Rich country...

Edited March 21 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

5 hours ago, hcrof said:

The links are broken for me but I am very skeptical about building  bunkers with 3d printing - and I say this as someone who designs structures, sometimes against explosions. If plastics are involved multiply that by 10. 

Fully agree, ref plastics. I think most proper structural 3D printing is focussed on other materials - concrete mostly but I've also seen liquified wood products. 

3D printing is fantastic for shaping a form so its the darling child of modern architects for designing (speaking as a former architect). Engineers, in my experience, are usually a lot more circumspect - not because of ignorance or inability to see the possibilities but simple realities of physics and materials science. 3D printing does many things but not certain things. A gain somewhere (e.g. a hyper-parabolic wall built quickly) has a cost somewhere else (structural integrity under dynamic stress loads).

Everything is a trade-off, physics isn't free.

Edited March 21 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

32 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

It's because the attack was all directed on Kyiv with strongest AD shield in Ukraine. If each city had the same protection, the total result would be like this.

It was at 5:00 I heard two Patriots launches, then heavy boom so windows shaken. It was Kinzhal or Iskander interception - it came from NE direction, were my district is located, so interception of ballistic missiles add some adrenaline %) Then, since 5 minutes one more (aero)ballistic target was destroyed, but slightly further. Then I heard 2-3 distant booms - all other missiles flew from western direction and were intercepted there - it's too far from me. 

 But anyway, several Kh-101 were intercepted over the city and hit the ground in residental areas  - 12 citizens were wounded. Damaged several buildings, one workshop, kindergarden, church, local power substation. Several cars burnt. 

Here fragment of missile impacted on the street not far from one of specific object %) and damaged buildings around - probably warhead detonated. 

Here of course "underground command bunker was destroyed" )))

People of this house were really lucky...

... Because warhead of intercepted Kh-101 fell down directly near the building and didn't explode

Of course, Russian MoD made a statement "the strike, including Kinzhal missiles was performed on decision making centers - all targets were hit". Ok. 390 millions USD to nowhere. Rich country...

I do have concerns about why RUS is launching such a large wave now.

There have been consistent reports of dwindling AD supply. Patriot supply is in doubt (hello, Mr. Spineless Speaker) and several of these large waves, if repeated over, say, a two week period could rapidly eat into the existing stocks. Targeting Kiev could pull Patriot supply (but not necessarily the launchers) away from the forward zones. Once the Patriots are are used up then Kiev would be essentially defenceless to such waves. Such a surge followed by a burnout of AD could be a serious strategic and operational win for Russia.

Counters to this worry are:

1. We don't know just how many PAC-3 UKR have - but nothing is infinite.
2. We don't know if Patriot resupply is being covered in other ways (eg through Allies)
3. Ukraine has developed long range strike capabilities - if they're able to hit refineries 1,000km away, what's to stop them striking RUS bombers on home airfields? Oh wait, they're already at it

[cesmonkey]

1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Not yet, he keeps mentioning a future episode discussing drones in more depth. 

Although the comment about drones being better on the defensive usually appears in comparison to conventional artillery, from which I deduce that pursuant to Koffman it is the tube artillery which has offensive advantages. My guess is he refers to the fact, that during an offensive against enemy hiding  in field fortifications, artillery needs to shoot up trenches, which requires large amounts of HE on target in short time, which drones cannot match, and anyway it would be uneconomical to try to do so .

I would think that your drones also have more loiter time and are less likely to be jammed by electronic warfare, the closer they are to your own lines.

[Haiduk]

Russia claimed since February they renewed production of FAB-1500 anf FAB-3000 heavy bombs - likely they also started production of UMPK kits for FAB-3000, making it also guided. It's bad. We need more long-range AD and F-16. Or strike this factory in Nizhniy Novgorod oblast

Though FAB-3000 is too heavy for Su-34, and can be used from Tu-22M3 only. The bomb has 1400 kg of HE. It already was used as free-fall bombs during Azovstal siege.

Edited March 21 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

GUR claimed all missiles, which trying to hit Kyiv this morning were targeted on GUR buildings - revenge for Belgorod %) 

From other aftermath of attack, which became knowingly - one shot down missile fell and detonated on territory of storages of "Rozetka" - largest internet-shop in Ukraine. One storage facility was damaged, several cars destroyed.

During attack 99 eployees were on the territory, no one wasn't injured

Edited March 21 by Haiduk

[panzermartin]

At some point I expect ballistic missiles to somehow drop their warhead with gliding kit (Ala Glide bombs) and the remaining body with rocket engine to act as a decoy for AA. 

Patriots have adjusted perfectly to the ballistic threat. 

 

Edited March 21 by panzermartin

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

 This essentially makes an FPV a flying Javelin - which is pretty much what Spike NLOS is.  Targeting errors etc are all just part of the package.

It is worth pointing out that you could basically reuse the same software, or at least big pieces of it. A lot of the work has been done for decades, 

[LongLeftFlank]

7 hours ago, hcrof said:

The links are broken for me but I am very skeptical about building  bunkers with 3d printing - and I say this as someone who designs structures, sometimes against explosions. If plastics are involved multiply that by 10. 

 

Sure, and I freely admit I'm well over my skis here, but still, kevlar is a polymer/fiber.

I'd assume we could find ways to 3D print fibers which offer rudimentary ballistic protection and overhead cover against frag, if not high calibre rounds, which is the menace here, not to perfectly replicate  cement and steel.

Truck the hollow lego brix to the front, fill 'em with dirt like a sandbag, etc. Quick 'n dirty!  The most urgent need here though seems to be decent overhead cover for foxholes. with prefab hatches to keep drones from flying in. Igloo shape, maybe? Etc. 

Just saying that this IS the kind of stuff the remaining non-Chinese industrial base can still crank out in bulk, real fast.... the priority here is to reduce the bleeding, or at least force the use of more drones to yield a given body count. Don't make perfect the enemy of good.

...Search '3D printed bunkers' and you'll find stuff that purports to be structurally sound enuff to bury.

P.S. I don't know what the thermal/masking properties of these plastics are, but ability to install a LOT of these also seems helpful.... dummies, fallback positions, etc.

P.P.S.  Are both armies still digging long trench lines? Why? when the primary threat is now overhead? (it's a rhetorical question, I get why)

@Kinophile

Edited March 21 by LongLeftFlank

[chrisl]

17 minutes ago, dan/california said:

It is worth pointing out that you could basically reuse the same software, or at least big pieces of it. A lot of the work has been done for decades, 

If you have enough lift you can even strap a javelin to the bottom of a drone.

[sross112]

On 3/20/2024 at 8:05 AM, alison said:

 

The spy/recon/overwatch drones, on other hand - the ones that hopefully are going to fly back to base at the end of their mission - those seem like a priority for loading up with all the security. We keep talking on this thread about how maneuver is dead because everyone can see everything going on for miles around, but if everyone is watching everyone else's video feed then what's actually dead is opsec. You can't give people your intel for free, at least make them put up a drone of their own to get it, you know?

 

The interception of FPV video doesn't seem overly problematic to me at this point. It is on a one way ride to a target and trying to let Ivan know to duck in time to avoid it on final approach is going to need a level of communication and networking that is a ways off by anyone's standards. The real use of intercepting video feeds will be from the recon drones. What they are looking at is good intel, but watching the video on their way back to their launch points will be much more valuable. Is that how we were seeing the Orlan crews getting hit a couple months ago? Probably be a good plan to implement standard procedure to launch one drone from somewhere other than your headquarters and bug out immediately after recovery to different location before the arty falls. 

[panzermartin]

I hate where this is heading. Basically this tech can produce never ending wars not dependent on available personnel, even autonomous AI wars, constant terror attacks deep behind lines and other ugliness. 

I hope someone comes out with a Uber weapon that defeats all frequencies used for drones and these people go out of business. 

You can't even write a proper anti war novel, movie or song with these little creatures. Oh maybe Slayer can think of something. "Droone warfaaare" 

[Kinophile]

26 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Sure, and I freely admit I'm well over my skis here, but still, kevlar is a polymer/fiber.

I'd assume we could find ways to 3D print fibers which offer rudimentary ballistic protection and overhead cover against frag, if not high calibre rounds, which is the menace here, not to perfectly replicate  cement and steel.

Truck the hollow lego brix to the front, fill 'em with dirt like a sandbag, etc. Quick 'n dirty!  The most urgent need here though seems to be decent overhead cover for foxholes. with prefab hatches to keep drones from flying in. Etc.  Just saying that this IS the kind of stuff the remaining non-Chinese industrial base can still crank out in bulk, real fast....

...Search '3D printed bunkers' and you'll find stuff that purports to be structurally sound enuff to bury.

P.S. I don't know what the thermal/masking properties of these plastics are, but ability to install a LOT of these also seems helpful.... dummies, fallback positions, etc.

@Kinophile

Why bother with 3d printing? Its not faster for plastics than just stamping out forms. Would it not be easier to just create a mold (costly, sorta slow) and then just stamp out standerized bunker shells using heavy duty plastic mixed with kevlar? Once you get a floor line going it could complete hundreds in a day, using that one mold. 

These could form the basic interiors and act as the internal formers for rebar concrete poured over them in-situ. A further liner inside to catch shrapnel/flakes from impacts would help. 

3D printing has certain applications but its hard to beat the 10,000 year old concept of simple molds for just rapid, fast production using basic materials. Way less moving parts, for one!

3D printed ballistic materials could offer significant breakthoughs - but I suspect we're quite a while away from beating the layering system of kevlar on cost & time.

Edited March 21 by Kinophile

[Haiduk]

Kh-101, intercepted in Kyiv oblast this morning with Browning HMG by mobile AD group

 

[panzermartin]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Kh-101, intercepted in Kyiv oblast this morning with Browning HMG by mobile AD group

 

Sorry no way this was from the 0.50. It's equivalent to the Iraqi with a 1909 rifle posing against a down Apache. 

Edited March 21 by panzermartin

[Kinophile]

14 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Kh-101, intercepted in Kyiv oblast this morning with Browning HMG by mobile AD group

 

Seems a bit far away for a HMG to be accurate enough to catch a missile going at least 200 m/s...

ninja'd by panzermartin

[hcrof]

42 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Why bother with 3d printing? Its not faster for plastics than just stamping out forms. Would it not be easier to just create a mold (costly, sorta slow) and then just stamp out standerized bunker shells using heavy duty plastic mixed with kevlar? Once you get a floor line going it could complete hundreds in a day, using that one mold. 

These could form the basic interiors and act as the internal formers for rebar concrete poured over them in-situ. A further liner inside to catch shrapnel/flakes from impacts would help. 

3D printing has certain applications but its hard to beat the 10,000 year old concept of simple molds for just rapid, fast production using basic materials. Way less moving parts, for one!

3D printed ballistic materials could offer significant breakthoughs - but I suspect we're quite a while away from beating the layering system of kevlar on cost & time.

Remember plastic is very flammable so not good in combat - you would need a different material. Buildings are BIG and use a lot of material, so 3d printing is not going to beat mass production economically except for some quite specialised use cases. (This is a big subject that I have studied but I don't want to go OT)

I am no expert on Kevlar but in construction carbon fibre is sometimes used - the downsides are that 1) steel offers most of the performance and a fraction of the price and 2) it burns. It ends up used in very specialised cases only. 

The other reason why steel is almost always going to be best in "dynamic situations" is that it fails very gracefully by bending rather than snapping. Modern steels (even low grade construction steel) are really good and really cheap so very difficult to beat, especially if they are surrounded by concrete for fire protection and extra mass. 

Basically the "best" bunker for mass production is likely what we have already seen - factory made reinforced concrete panels, welded together on site then covered in soil. Cheap, quick to assemble and robust (at least for a few years before they start to rust due to sloppy construction)

Edited March 21 by hcrof

[Kinophile]

50 minutes ago, hcrof said:

Remember plastic is very flammable so not good in combat - you would need a different material. Buildings are BIG and use a lot of material, so 3d printing is not going to beat mass production economically except for some quite specialised use cases. (This is a big subject that I have studied but I don't want to go OT)

I am no expert on Kevlar but in construction carbon fibre is sometimes used - the downsides are that 1) steel offers most of the performance and a fraction of the price and 2) it burns. It ends up used in very specialised cases only. 

The other reason why steel is almost always going to be best in "dynamic situations" is that it fails very gracefully by bending rather than snapping. Modern steels (even low grade construction steel) are really good and really cheap so very difficult to beat, especially if they are surrounded by concrete for fire protection and extra mass. 

Basically the "best" bunker for mass production is likely what we have already seen - factory made reinforced concrete panels, welded together on site then covered in soil. Cheap, quick to assemble and robust (at least for a few years before they start to rust due to sloppy construction)

Are they done in panels, or complete sections? I've seen videos of formed concrete being placed into deep construction trenches - they landed onto concrete slab floors but the sides and roof were all one piece, with thickened wall corners and ceiling joints. 

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

I hate where this is heading. Basically this tech can produce never ending wars not dependent on available personnel, even autonomous AI wars, constant terror attacks deep behind lines and other ugliness. 

I hope someone comes out with a Uber weapon that defeats all frequencies used for drones and these people go out of business. 

You can't even write a proper anti war novel, movie or song with these little creatures. Oh maybe Slayer can think of something. "Droone warfaaare" 

The endpoint:

https://youtu.be/CZ1CATNbXg0?feature=shared

[kimbosbread]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

I hate where this is heading. Basically this tech can produce never ending wars not dependent on available personnel, even autonomous AI wars, constant terror attacks deep behind lines and other ugliness. 

Dream biglier, dude. Nano (ofc self-replicating) and bio is way scarier.