Kraft Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 (edited) 8 minutes ago, billbindc said: For the record, the only Abrams in Afghanistan were with the USMC and they were about as useful as a 63 ton doorstop. Yes I corrected the text, similarly, comparison with Iraq or Saudis does the same. Edited March 3 by Kraft 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holien Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 43 minutes ago, Kraft said: The "not possible" is just a moral veil for "not in the interest There we go with simple answers and simple statements.... How would the logistics worked with all those tanks? You do know the tip of the spear needs a decent length of well crafted wood behind it to make it effective. Look Steve earlier has as ever given a far more detailed effective response. Sure there could have been things we should have done sooner and more effective. Sure Germany could have stepped up sooner. It would certainly have helped but there were / no easy answers, hindsight is easy... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimbosbread Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 8 minutes ago, Holien said: How would the logistics worked with all those tanks? Yuuup. I think sending T-series of various flavors was definitely the right decision from a logistics perspective; I’m not convinced Abrams were a good choice ever based on the maintenance burden and fuel consumption. Similar to the argument “Send Apaches”. People don’t realize how much maintenance and specialized parts these things require. They don’t just operate by the grace of god! Bradleys in mass quantities, however, was a giant missed opportunity; same with all the luxury F150s Americans were no longer buying. Pure stupidity and no good excuses. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 (edited) 27 minutes ago, Holien said: There we go with simple answers and simple statements.... How would the logistics worked with all those tanks? You do know the tip of the spear needs a decent length of well crafted wood behind it to make it effective. Look Steve earlier has as ever given a far more detailed effective response. Sure there could have been things we should have done sooner and more effective. Sure Germany could have stepped up sooner. It would certainly have helped but there were / no easy answers, hindsight is easy... You're saying the wait was for this logistic train: Quote Article is from: Jan 3, 2024 Ukraine's dwindling supply of Leopard 2 tanks aren't being repaired because Europe doesn't have enough spare parts, German politician says Only a few of the modern Leopard 2 tanks supplied by Germany to Ukraine are still being deployed in the war — largely because spare parts for repairs are lacking, according to a defense budget decision-maker in Germany's parliament As a result, only a "very small number" of Leopard tanks delivered by Germany are still operational in Ukraine, according to Schäfer. He highlighted an "urgent need for action" to bolster the spare parts supply, saying that Ukrainian forces also caused further damage to their Leopard tanks by attempting repairs. One would think, "urgent need for action" came within 22 months? Lets meet next year to discuss "simple answers" again, btw "its not possible" is the simple answer, it just magically throws away government responsibility. Trademark Scholz excuse too, for things that wound up happening mere weeks later. When it just so happened to become "possible". Dont confuse political will with military limitations, we are talking about the USA that can move entire Divisions around the globe in a matter of days. Im sure they can handle a repair shop. Edited March 3 by Kraft 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 1 hour ago, Carolus said: I respectfully disagree. Defeating the invasion of Ukraine is related to Western interests and the West is not pursuing its own interests due to a mixture of 1) lack of will 2) lack of skill (military, intelligence and political savy) 3) political corruption This is not the fault of Ukraine, and it is very fair that Ukraine feels disappointed by its weak allies and the weak support in an existential war - not only existential for Ukraine, but existential for certain principles the West has built. It may hurt to admit, especially if one was part of the Western military complex, but the West is not bringing its best. I mean these are fair points, and I am not in the "Yay us!" camp. But frankly it is a small miracle that anything happened at all. The West was woefully unprepared for this entire thing, and that is on us. As for Ukraine. Well if we are dolling out harsh but fair truths, they definitely could have been better prepared as well. If I were living next door to Russia, I would make damned sure I had security guarantees that matter (oh wait, I do and we did). I would also be working very hard, like Finland and Sweden just did, to make sure if I needed a quick entry into the western fold that I was ready for that. Corruption and dithering happened inside the Ukraine government as well. I think that no one on this side of this war was truly ready for what actually happened. The West rallied and frankly pulled off the impossible, as did Ukraine - how quickly we forget the miracles of Mar '22. I do not think it is fair to flush all that down the toilet now with revisionist history and hysteria. The West continues to support Ukraine. Billions in aid are still moving. The US is putting on a shameful display of just how fragile its democracy is right now, and ignorant power hungry politicians are exploiting it for personal gain. But I remain confident that 1) Ukraine will adapt. They are leading modern warfare right now and learning incredibly fast, 2) The US and West will eventually get there - democracy does suck at times, but it is the best we have, and 3) Russian decline is occurring as a direct result of #1 and #2. Their ability to be a threat is declining in the conventional space. Hopefully this is a "darkest before dawn" situation and not the abyss that some insist it has become. 12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOS:96B2P Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 3 hours ago, ASL Veteran said: I read somewhere that Ukrainian males aged between 18 and 26 can't be mobilized / aren't draftable or something although they can choose to enlist if they want to. I've also read / heard that the average age of a Ukrainian soldier is something like 44 years old - which is nuts. You can't even enlist in the US army if you are older than 35. If true, it sure seems like the individuals that you want most are the ones that can't be had I've seen videos from inside un-occupied Ukraine where war damage etc. is being shown and discussed. In the background of some of the videos are what I thought were military aged males (18-20 something) in civilian clothing looking on or seemingly going about their day. On a few occasions it struck me as so odd I commented to the wife that they must be on leave from the front or have some type of medical condition that keeps them from fighting for their country. A well trained, discipled, equipped and motivated 18-26 year old is very effective. With proper leadership they are extremely effective. I question the wisdom of with holding this resource from Ukrainian combat units. 1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said: The reason is crystal clear. 44 year olds do not have many children, usually. The Ukraine has dire demographic situation and does not want to be in the position, that it survives the war but has nobody to replace the population gap. To put it crudely, it protects the breeders. I suspect many in the West are not aware of this situation. I wonder if this is the official reason given inside of Ukraine when Ukrainians discuss the war. So Jodi gets to stay at home and breed while Joe is in a trench dodging drones and glide bombs ......... We had marching / running cadence about similar situations. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panzermartin Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 I don't think Ukraine can take back Crimea with 50yr old soldiers. They should go to the negotiations table already, if younger people don't care about fighting and stop wasting lives. A 45yr old can also breed you know. But he is not always capable of running to the next trench. War should be equal to all, young and old, poor and rich, otherwise it's not a war worth fighting for. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 (edited) 19 hours ago, panzermartin said: They should go to the negotiations table already Seriously and @squatter can look here too. For anyone advocating Ukraine pursuing peace negotiations or suing for peace - easy to say but no one in this camp has provided a coherent theory of what that would look like right now. Let’s say “Ok, you guys are right. Ukraine is out of options here. There are no viable way for Ukraine to continue to prosecute this war.” Ok, so what? What would peace negotiations look like? How exactly do you guys see these “peace negotiations” happening. Every time I ask this question I get some hand waving but no one has yet to unpack just how any peace negotiations could end up in anything but weakened western influence and a more vulnerable Ukraine that Russia is going to exploit. What peace negotiation, that Russia is going to accept - while, as we are continually reminded, Russia is still capable of waging offensives to take ground? What possible leverage does the west or Ukraine have in guaranteeing Ukrainian independence and security. Is Russia going to offer reparations? How about war crimes prosecution? Is Russia going to give up an inch of ground it has taken? Are they going to push for recognition of Crimea and Donbas as Russian provinces. This is what is so disingenuous about this line of advocacy - at best it is delusional liberal left “let’s give peace a chance”. At worst is it far right BS designed to program failure into this entire war so that their presidential candidate can be “right all along”. In both cases the idea of peace negotiations right now is an empty coffin where actual ideas on this war go to die. We may very well need a negotiated end-state in this war, but suing for peace now, while on the back foot is going to embolden Putin and his regime…and is exactly what they are looking for in order to promote themselves “Look we brought them all to their knees”. But let’s open the floor. Please walk us through what a peace process would look like right now. Let’s stop sideline heckling on won’t work and tell us what you think will work. Edited March 4 by The_Capt 16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holien Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 Capt, Simple answers is all people want... Make peace - Simple problem solved Send more tanks - Simple problem solved Capt keep up the good work - it ain't simple... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 (edited) 2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: I take the middle ground. I think what the West has done thus far has been huge. Biggest investment NATO countries have made in a non-member state since its foundation. It is also was highly effective. Ukraine would arguably have been overrun in 2022 without this support. This should not be dismissed or belittled. It was strategically important to Ukraine and, therefore, the West. I wished to express a middle ground. Maybe it did not come across? I did not mention specific weapon systems or numbers for a reason, since one can get lost in the details of what made sense when. And what the West sent has been very important and also significant in terms of amount. But I also sincerely believe that certain ways the support was handled can only be described as short-sighted, weak and even counter the West's own interests (for the 3 reasons stated in my previous post). At the moment the West seems purely reactive rather than pro-active. Which means when politicians decide to allow Ukrainians to put their apparently ungrateful and uneducated hands on another piece of Western equipment, it takes months of training. Training for certain systems could have begun much earlier - even if supply might only come later, in reaction to developments which Western politicians set as their red line. The communication strategy is abysmal. Half the Western world doesn't even realise we have been locked into a wrestling match through a multi-pronged non-conventional attack by a force which utterly despises our core values and our way to live, which would order the killing of millions of Western citizens in a heartbeat and without any remorse if it seemed expedient to its interests. We are witnessing Fall Gelb and French politicians are openly telling French people that the first villages being overrun by Germans is fake news, and besides have you seen the German tanks yourself with your own eyes? If not, you are a warmonger, and it is best to vote for the pro-German politican during the French election happening next week. These are serious and unconventional, partly unprecedented problems. Irrational, even. Still, I acknowledge that a lot has happened and many positive developments have taken place, from supplied military goods over economic sanctions to increased military production. That was really great. But while I don't want to downplay it, a lot of it seems to have been incredibly hotch-potched, foot-dragging and improvised, which makes me worry. Ukraine cannot subsist based on the idealism of the Skandinavian and the Baltic countries alone. Edited March 3 by Carolus typos 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 (edited) 1 hour ago, The_Capt said: I mean these are fair points, and I am not in the "Yay us!" camp. But frankly it is a small miracle that anything happened at all. The West was woefully unprepared for this entire thing, and that is on us. As for Ukraine. Well if we are dolling out harsh but fair truths, they definitely could have been better prepared as well. If I were living next door to Russia, I would make damned sure I had security guarantees that matter (oh wait, I do and we did). I would also be working very hard, like Finland and Sweden just did, to make sure if I needed a quick entry into the western fold that I was ready for that. Corruption and dithering happened inside the Ukraine government as well. I think that no one on this side of this war was truly ready for what actually happened. The West rallied and frankly pulled off the impossible, as did Ukraine - how quickly we forget the miracles of Mar '22. I do not think it is fair to flush all that down the toilet now with revisionist history and hysteria. The West continues to support Ukraine. Billions in aid are still moving. The US is putting on a shameful display of just how fragile its democracy is right now, and ignorant power hungry politicians are exploiting it for personal gain. But I remain confident that 1) Ukraine will adapt. They are leading modern warfare right now and learning incredibly fast, 2) The US and West will eventually get there - democracy does suck at times, but it is the best we have, and 3) Russian decline is occurring as a direct result of #1 and #2. Their ability to be a threat is declining in the conventional space. Hopefully this is a "darkest before dawn" situation and not the abyss that some insist it has become. I don't disagree with any of that. The post I responded to seemed a bit more negative or one-sided to me. This post however I would totally agree with. Let me say where I came from in the initial post: The West has done a lot, really a lot, but also the West would betray its own identity if it had not. That's why I don't like when things are expressed in the vein of "oh why is it now the West's duty to help every war, silly Ukrainians? We dont have to give you a penny if we don't want to!" I dont see that this way, because that is a big part of what makes us us, of what shapes our understanding of "mission", insofar we still have a sense of "mission" in the West. Turning away from Ukraine would not be a betrayal of Ukraine necessarily, it would be a betrayal of ourselves and our political and ideological foundations and would weaken us in the long-term. That is not spoken out of a pure sense of stars-and-stripes idealism. I believe this has practical political ramifications, globally, of where the planet and humanity will be headed geopolitically in this century, which the West, despite diminishing demographic and economic importance, will take a role in shaping. So I say: We did a lot, we could do better, and it is not pure generosity to do something, but it is beneficial in more ways than one to ourselves, it just also happens to be beneficial to Ukraine. Edited March 3 by Carolus 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panzermartin Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 2 minutes ago, The_Capt said: Seriously and @squatter can look here too. For anyone advocating Ukraine pursuing peace negotiations or suing for peace - easy to say but no one in this camp has provided a coherent theory of what that would look like right now. Let’s say “Ok, you guys are right. Ukraine is out of options here. There are no viable way for Ukraine to continue to prosecute this war.” Ok, so what? What would peace negotiations look like? How exactly do you guys see these “peace negotiations” happening. Every time I ask this question I get some hand waving but no one has yet to unpack just how any peace negotiations could end up in anything but weakened western influence and a more vulnerable Ukraine that Russia is going to exploit. What peace negotiation, that Russia is going to accept - while, as we are continually reminded, Russia is still capable of waging offensives to take ground? What possible leverage does the west or Ukraine have in guaranteeing Ukrainian independence and security. Is Russia going to offer reparations? How about war crimes prosecution? Is Russia going to give up an inch of ground it has taken? Are they going to push for recognition of Crimea and Donbas as Russian provinces. This is what is so disingenuous about this line of advocacy - at best it is delusional liberal left “let’s give peace a chance”. At worst is it far right BS designed to program failure into this entire war so that their presidential candidate can be “right all along”. In both cases the idea of peace negotiations right now is an empty coffin where actual ideas on this war go to die. We may very well need a negotiated end-state in this war, but suing for peace now, while on the back foot is going to embolden Putin and his regime…and is exactly what they are looking for in order to promote themselves “Look we brought them all to their knees”. But let’s open the floor. Please walk us through what a peace process would look like right now. Let’s stop sideline heckling at won’t work and tell us what you think will work. To be fair, I put in a certain perspective. That, if there is no collective desire to defend Ukraine *among the population of Ukraine, then there is no point in continuing this war and killing the willing and the bravest in a defensive retreat. These people have been the most heroic lot I have witnessed in my post 70s life. They can of course keep fighting until the end if that's their desire. But as an outsider peace seems like better option than a war until the very end. Peace would unfortunately mean Crimea and Donbas to Russians officially. For now. The fact they are already russian and probably not possible to retake, makes things less painful I guess. But what if peace now can prepare Ukraine better for the future? In a couple years time. With a proper airforce, with enough artillery shells, with even western presence in their land? Not to gear for another war but to show that they are impossible now to overcome. And at the same time a phyrric victory of an isolated Russia would mean that they are not able to keep up or prepare for second war. Then they slowly disintegrate, with the old people and the old soviet memories that somehow brought us here. With a Soviet flag of victory in the ruins of Bakhmut and the Black Sea fleet locked in Port and rusting. And a new generation of more open minded people that are fed up with a decaying country will eventually bring the change and bridge the two countries that speak the same words again. Actually war is what keeps Russia running at the moment. The idea that they are fighting the big collective West and the Slavic traitors feeds their struggle against daily misery. If this war ends what will keep them together? Kinda like pedaling and balancing a war bicycle. They are definetly in better shape than two years ago,yes can you believe this? As for demanding more from Ukrainians, It's somewhat cynical of us to expect them to carry the burden and defend all "western values" that they know little of, while we sit safely on our couch. I don't like it to be honest. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimbosbread Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 8 minutes ago, panzermartin said: To be fair, I put in a certain perspective. That, if there is no collective desire to defend Ukraine *among the population of Ukraine, then there is no point in continuing this war and killing the willing and the bravest in a defensive retreat. These people have been the most heroic lot I have witnessed in my post 70s life. As has been pointed out, the weird thing is that it’s very much an older man’s war. What do you do as a country if much of the younger generation prefers to flee and would rather be refugees than soldiers? For the next set of wars, what will the US do if it can not recruit enough volunteers? We’re seeing huge problems on this front already, and if the conservative half of the US more or less gives up on military service after the middle eastern mess of the last 30 years… that’s our main soldiering pool. Do we just go full terminators all around? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 16 minutes ago, Carolus said: I don't disagree with any of that. The post I responded to seemed a bit more negative or one-sided to me. This post however I would totally agree with. Let me say where I came from in the initial post: The West has done a lot, really a lot, but also the West would betray its own identity if it had not. That's why I don't like when things are expressed in the vein of "oh why is it now the West's duty to help every war, silly Ukrainians? We dont have to give you a penny if we don't want to!" I dont see that this way, because that is a big part of what makes us us, of what shapes our understanding of "mission", insofar we still have a sense of "mission" in the West. Turning away from Ukraine would not be a betrayal of Ukraine necessarily, it would be a betrayal of ourselves and our political and ideological foundations and would weaken us in the long-term. That is not spoken out of a pure sense of stars-and-stripes idealism. I believe this has practical political ramifications, globally, of where the planet and humanity will be headed geopolitically in this century, which the West, despite diminishing demographic and economic importance, will take a role in shaping. So I say: We did a lot, we could do better, and it is not pure generosity to do something, but it is beneficial in more ways than one to ourselves, it just also happens to be beneficial to Ukraine. We are definitely at a “we have forgotten the faces of our fathers. - moment” in the West. I have already heard this war framed in terms as either the greatest success or worse failure in the western system since the end of the Cold War that may very well shape the rest of the 21st century. I am personally uplifted by how much we rallied. We were within inches of tossing NATO out the door and other western unions were under similar assault. I think the question now is whether or not we can follow through and finish this thing? Remember we still have a Ukraine to rebuild once this is all over. The West definitely has interests in this war and Ukraine is essentially defending them. My back gets up when some people act like Western support is an entitlement however. People forget that it is our public who actually own all this support - they paid for it. So we have to convince them that this is worth their money. This means we cannot simply throw out our own democracy in order to pay for this war, as ugly as it gets at times. At its worst this turns into US/Western bashing day, which frankly is not helpful. Anyway, we are in a valley right now, no getting past it. But we will simply have to push through or risk losing what those that came before us sacrificed a lot to build. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimbosbread Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 13 minutes ago, panzermartin said: Actually war is what keeps Russia running at the moment. The idea that they are fighting the big collective West and the Slavic traitors feeds their struggle against daily misery. If this war ends what will keep them together? Kinda like pedaling and balancing a war bicycle. They are definetly in better shape than two years ago,yes can you believe this? No, I do not believe Russia is in better shape than 2 years ago, no way. Yes, on one hand Russia has adapted to the means at their disposal (lots of mines, lots of meat willing to die, refurbished 100 year old tanks, dumb glide bombs, weapons from Iran and DPRK). On the other hand, Russia’s political edifice is more brittle than it was; we had a pseudo-kind-of-coup-attempt last years, which could have easily succeeded. We have the nationalist true believers in jail, dieing or killing themselves. Russia is out of well-trained soldiers and a lot of modern equipment, and is very close to air power hunger. Ukraine is at the cusp of a revolution in drone warfare, and is amassing extreme long-range strike potential. If you think Russia is stronger, then answer me these questions: What does Russia do if Ukraine takes down another 25-50% of their refining capacity? Where will the spare parts come from? Where will the money appear from? What does Russia do if they lose another 20 SU34s and an A50? If they cannot drop glide bombs, what’s their next option? How is Russia going to mobilize another 400k soldiers and train and equip them? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 18 minutes ago, panzermartin said: To be fair, I put in a certain perspective. That, if there is no collective desire to defend Ukraine *among the population of Ukraine, then there is no point in continuing this war and killing the willing and the bravest in a defensive retreat. These people have been the most heroic lot I have witnessed in my post 70s life. They can of course keep fighting until the end if that's their desire. But as an outsider peace seems like better option than a war until the very end. Peace would unfortunately mean Crimea and Donbas to Russians officially. For now. The fact they are already russian and probably not possible to retake, makes things less painful I guess. But what if peace now can prepare Ukraine better for the future? In a couple years time. With a proper airforce, with enough artillery shells, with even western presence in their land? Not to gear for another war but to show that they are impossible now to overcome. And at the same time a phyrric victory of an isolated Russia would mean that they are not able to keep up or prepare for second war. Then they slowly disintegrate, with the old people and the old soviet memories that somehow brought us here. With a Soviet flag of victory in the ruins of Bakhmut and the Black Sea fleet locked in Port and rusting. And a new generation of more open minded people that are fed up with a decaying country will eventually bring the change and bridge the two countries that speak the same words again. Actually war is what keeps Russia running at the moment. The idea that they are fighting the big collective West and the Slavic traitors feeds their struggle against daily misery. If this war ends what will keep them together? Kinda like pedaling and balancing a war bicycle. They are definetly in better shape than two years ago,yes can you believe this? As for demanding more from Ukrainians, It's somewhat cynical of us to expect them to carry the burden and defend all "western values" that they know little of, while we sit safely on our couch. I don't like it to be honest. Yes, I wasn’t really trying to single you out personally, there has been some obstinate talk on “Ukraine must sue for peace” coming from certain quarters and it needs to be addressed. The peace you describe sounds a lot like Korea, which I honestly think this is where things will go. But Korea had to come after nearly two years of stalemate. Both sides had to agree in good faith to a cessation of warfare that allowed each side to pursue their own agendas. It was “good enough” to call. In my opinion, right now, this war is nowhere near this point. And this is not on Ukraine, it is on Russia. Had Priggy made the push to Moscow, thrown out Putin and then sued for negotiations…maybe - even if it meant dealing with that nut bar. But Putin and his regime have clearly signalled this is a make or break fight for them. With them still in power and actively attacking, there is not room for negotiations as they will be dictated within Putin’s framework. We are not in a position to dictate terms or even hope to get a rational outcome. Putin will likely demand Ukrainian neutrality, which is just a thin veil for a vulnerable insecure Ukraine he can retake later. He will demand Ukrainian demilitarization, which will translate to a withdrawal of western support. He will also likely demand “de-nazification” which will mean basically whatever enters his pointy little head because it is so poorly defined. None of this works for us and even opening that door will be taken as a sign of weakness. My thinking is we need to break Russia’s military hands, retake that strategic corridor and push Russia back to 2022 lines…then we can ask “had enough?” To do it now is a fools errand. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panzermartin Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 Just now, kimbosbread said: As has been pointed out, the weird thing is that it’s very much an older man’s war. What do you do as a country if much of the younger generation prefers to flee and would rather be refugees than soldiers? For the next set of wars, what will the US do if it can not recruit enough volunteers? We’re seeing huge problems on this front already, and if the conservative half of the US more or less gives up on military service after the middle eastern mess of the last 30 years… that’s our main soldiering pool. Do we just go full terminators all around? You are hoping that the younger ones of your opponent don't have any desire for war either. No more wars. Problem solved. If suddenly no one would enlist, then all wars could stop. Could be a reality after this war ends. But how will it end? The next option is war from distance, AI, robots, drones, guided by 16yr olds boys and girls but no human is allowed on the battlefield. 5 minutes ago, kimbosbread said: No, I do not believe Russia is in better shape than 2 years ago, no way. Yes, on one hand Russia has adapted to the means at their disposal (lots of mines, lots of meat willing to die, refurbished 100 year old tanks, dumb glide bombs, weapons from Iran and DPRK). On the other hand, Russia’s political edifice is more brittle than it was; we had a pseudo-kind-of-coup-attempt last years, which could have easily succeeded. We have the nationalist true believers in jail, dieing or killing themselves. Russia is out of well-trained soldiers and a lot of modern equipment, and is very close to air power hunger. Ukraine is at the cusp of a revolution in drone warfare, and is amassing extreme long-range strike potential. If you think Russia is stronger, then answer me these questions: What does Russia do if Ukraine takes down another 25-50% of their refining capacity? Where will the spare parts come from? Where will the money appear from? What does Russia do if they lose another 20 SU34s and an A50? If they cannot drop glide bombs, what’s their next option? How is Russia going to mobilize another 400k soldiers and train and equip them? Russia is in better shape because : - has survived the humiliating defeats of the first year. -It now has the momentum in the front lines and is gaining ground steadily. - defeated the long awaited Ukrainian counter offensive. -defeated (or maybe crushed) the hype around western wunderwaffen. -At last found a successful cheap way to employ the air force in support of ground operations. - Vastly improved drone fleet capabilities and operational efficiency. -has no conflicting internal voices anymore. No Prigozyn, no Navalny, no opposition, no crazy ultra nationalists. Just a dull grey homogenous military state. -caused serious cracks and doubt among Ukrainians and westerners if victory is possible. -western funding is now more insecure than ever. - has overcome sanctions and tech and production shortcomings. - has the upper hand in manpower and widening the gap while Ukraine is facing serious issues with mobilization. That doesn't mean it's in great shape of course. But in most ways it has adapted and wages war better than Feb 2022. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 2 hours ago, panzermartin said: I don't think Ukraine can take back Crimea with 50yr old soldiers. They should go to the negotiations table already, if younger people don't care about fighting and stop wasting lives. A 45yr old can also breed you know. But he is not always capable of running to the next trench. War should be equal to all, young and old, poor and rich, otherwise it's not a war worth fighting for. do you recall at all what happened in Bucha? I mean FFS what exactly do you think is gonna happen with negotiations with Russia? JFC people have such poor memories or just don't give a rat's a55 for reality when they have an agenda. 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 40 minutes ago, cesmonkey said: Quote - Effort to force a vote (discharge petition) will begin this week, but is unlikely to succeed I thought this was the leading theory as to how the situation can and will be resolved in the end? How would they even pressure him if they cant go around his block? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 (edited) With all considerations regarding potentiall cease of hostilities, I'd start with a fact that according to Chingisid Kremlin logic, Ukraine currently "occupies" not that small parts of Russia in Kherson oblast including its biggest city. Tsar can naturally unf**k this legal Quasimodo born out of desparation if he wish to, but it would cost him some imperial mojo and may actually be problematic internally, given how mechanics of this system works. This is still very much procedural regime, and stamps, maps, new schoolbooks et allia already show this as part of Great Proud Motherland occupied by Nazi. And that is despite that even some domestic Russian nationalists started to figure it out they were never welcomed there as much as they thought, after clips with vivating crowds we saw at the end of 2022. He is pragmatist, but it doesn't sound like he could let it go easily during potentiall negotiations. A major obstacle. 3 hours ago, panzermartin said: War should be equal to all, young and old, poor and rich, otherwise it's not a war worth fighting for. ... too much Hemingway, sire. Edited March 4 by Beleg85 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 (edited) On the topic of western aid, the total number of ATGMs supplied to Ukraine by France has been declassified. The number of missiles remains classified, in an effort to maintain strategic ambiguity. Edited March 4 by Kraft 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 (edited) Ukraine isn't the only place where drone warfare is making advances. Not intended to derail, but we should stay aware of developments elsewhere, as we'll probably see them in some shape or form in Ukraine. Edited March 4 by Kinophile 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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