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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

So core of the problem is at the same time solution...now that seems ingenious. We apparently should start to shoot those pesky protesting peasants with rubber bullets.

Remember dear folks, every one of you has sacred obligation to donate everything to defence of Ukraine ( https://cpi.ti-ukraine.org/en/ ), without even questioning what is happening with it afterwards. Your family business, personal belongings, means of sustaining you and your family, up to the very last Eskimo giving up fishook of his grandfather.

Because, our Zeleban "doesn't care" about anything that is happening beyond some trench in this complicated world and he clearly thinks everyone in European Union can start to live on social at any given moment.

Right...I think I was very clear when writing about Border Guards with post-Soviet mental at these crossings, not "your nation as a whole", literally in next sentence writing about immense courage of soldiers? But hey, we listen what we want to.

And about the issue of border...ok, no bribes are taken, everything is fine. Just what a guy who for last two years chiefly hang around among volunteers travelling between Rzeszów and Donbas on weekly basis can know about, right? Meanwhile, could you tell me, how many hours you or your friends spend waiting in lines for some stamp in papers in on Medyka-Shegine? Hrebenne-Rawa Ruska? Perhaps Korczowa -Krakoviec? How many border guards on both sides you know by personal names? What concrete, actual and effective measures where taken there to uproot institutional corruption there  and- much worse- actually fight with prevalent culture of bribes  as accepted among wide population in the last 2 years? You know what "border pilot" practice was? How hundreds of thousands of young Ukrainian males in conscription age found themselves in EU (not that I would blame them, btw.)?

Leave detailed explanations, guy is on another self-contradicting emotional rant to somehow rationalize (= "we are doomed") situation and find guilty. It's small tradition of this board already.

Your words are similar to the words of a man who spent many hours at the corrupt Ukrainian border in the hope of delivering humanitarian aid to suffering Ukrainians, fighting thousands of corrupt Ukrainian officials who are doing their best to prevent him from carrying out his good mission. I see so much pain and suffering in your posts. I'm truly sorry for you

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35 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

You started your opus especially funny. I despise Polish farmers, but I support them in the fight against Ukraine. That is, you hate Ukrainians even more than Polish farmers, right?

Exactly. The only issue I have with hating everyone is when I need to decide whom to help first.

I won't comment on your insults and I don't really mind them. 

For me, your recent posts could be safely flagged as russian propaganda. You insist on suggesting that there are any problems with military and humanitarian support going through the border. Just as you suggest that grain export is in any significant way helping Ukraine. These exports are having close to zero importance for the war. All the fuss about it is due to fact that this grain feeds no small part of the World, so everyone are trying to help with that to avoid another humanitarian crisis.

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1 hour ago, Tenses said:

You insist on suggesting that there are any problems with military and humanitarian support going through the border. 

Anecdotal input.  I have some Ukrainian friends who cross the border infrequently and am assured that the import to EU of home brew vodka is strictly limited.  I never inquired whether a bribe might have helped with the very strict Polish customs, but my friends were more concerned to play by the local rules.  So I have a smaller quantity than I might have wanted and am still not clear on the reasons why.

The vodka is excellent and the border opaque.

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https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240302-europe-battles-powder-shortage-to-supply-shells-for-ukraine

Money quotes:

Quote

To make powder, you need a specific kind of cotton, which mostly comes from China. 

Would you know it, deliveries of this cotton from China stopped as if by chance a few months ago,

Well it sounds like there is work being done on substitute materials 

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9 hours ago, chrisl said:

Not out the turret hatch.  Out of the drone garage slung on the back.  No need for any human to get exposed to let the drones out.  And if the drones survive to make it back, they'll park on an auto charger.

I was asked to investigate auto-charging a while back. In combat conditions, I think you want battery-hot-swap. Otherwise it’ll take too long to charge, unless you have a lot of drones. And realistically, you don’t want to drain your batteries past say 70%.

Plus, rare earth metal batteries burn rather nicely so they add some extra flavor on top of the regular boom. I wonder if there would be a way to blow the battery into small pieces and mix with fuel droplets to create a more powerful thermobaric warhead?

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25 minutes ago, zinz said:

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240302-europe-battles-powder-shortage-to-supply-shells-for-ukraine

Money quotes:

Well it sounds like there is work being done on substitute materials 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/nitrocellulose-market-2024-foreseen-noteworthy-growth-tmhdf/
 

Quote

Who are the leading manufacturers in the global Nitrocellulose Market?

Nitrex Chemicals India Pvt. Ltd.
Nitro Chemie AG
Nitro Química
DowDuPont
Synthesia
ManuCo
TNC Industrial Co. Ltd
Hagedorn NC

https://www.thomasnet.com/products/nitrocellulose-53813002-1.html
Looks like there are some relatively small producers of military-grade nitrocellulose (higher nitrogen content) in the mid-Atlantic region of the U.S.

https://www.ulprospector.com/en/asia/Coatings/Detail/23284/587873/Nitrocellulose-Cotton
 

Quote

Nitrocellulose cotton is a white floc and chips fiber made from refined cotton and nitric acid. It can be liquified in acetonet, ethyl acetate, camphor ethanol liquid. This product is well suited for producing any color celluloid, nitryl lacquers, wood finishes, and fast-printing inks.

 

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3 hours ago, Tenses said:

These exports are having close to zero importance for the war. All the fuss about it is due to fact that this grain feeds no small part of the World, so everyone are trying to help with that to avoid another humanitarian crisis.

Feel the need to jump in here.

Thank you very much to everyone who participated in this discussion, it helped me form a more informed opinion on the unfortunate topic at hand. I feel everyone made some valid points in this obviously contentious discussion.

Anyway, the quote I highlighted I would like some clarification on. I was under the impression that the grain exports do play a role in the war effort. I think grain is one of Ukraine’s most important exports. I’m not sure how much of Ukraine’s overall GDP is going for the war effort but since Ukraine is fighting a war for its survival, I am sure that it is a lot. I imagine that money is going on not just ammo and guns but things like salaries for servicemen and some benefits for the families of fallen AFU members.

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With great regret, I have permanently banned Zeleban from the Forum.  He was warned many times about his aggressive ignorance and hostility to being called out on it.  His insistence on taking things out of context and getting upset by them is distracting enough, but his absolute refusal to listen to people who know MUCH more about the topic than him means we have to suffer major distraction and contention for absolutely no productive reason.

Zeleban received a 2 week "vacation" because of this repeated pattern of behavior and was told that it would not be tolerated any longer.  His return since the temp ban has been drifting more and more towards him telling us how life is outside of Ukraine instead of helping us understand what life inside Ukraine is like.  It's a real shame as we do have much to learn.

What we see here is the sad reality of how effective Russia's propaganda campaign is.  Russia fully embraces the propaganda rule that if you can't turn your enemies into friends, turn them into enemies with their friends.  Russia's strategy of making "mountains out of molehills" to strategically manipulate people to act against their own interests is extremely powerful, though not unique.  We see the political right all over the West doing this to cut funding for Ukraine.  Russia can't convince many that what they are doing is justified, but they can convince people that by funding Ukraine there will be a lot more people of color coming in to take their jobs and rape their women.  Sadly, it's very effective.

Steve

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42 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

A video and some images near Avdiivka.

This just shows how bad Russian training is.  The SOP for coming under fire like that should be to disperse in different directions and seek whatever cover is available, then somehow consolidate when it's less 'splody.

The notion that you can just ride out a situation like this is suicidal thanks to drones helping direct fire.  Missions can't be achieved with a dispersed unit, true enough, but there's more of chance than with a dead unit.

Steve

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51 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Anyway, the quote I highlighted I would like some clarification on. I was under the impression that the grain exports do play a role in the war effort. I think grain is one of Ukraine’s most important exports. I’m not sure how much of Ukraine’s overall GDP is going for the war effort but since Ukraine is fighting a war for its survival, I am sure that it is a lot. I imagine that money is going on not just ammo and guns but things like salaries for servicemen and some benefits for the families of fallen AFU members.

 

What I mean by saying that grain exports are not contributing to the war effort is that it provides money. From quick search it seems that agricultural exports peaked in its value in 2021 by adding 27.8 B$ to GDP(so it is not cash, just taxable economic value). Unfortunately money alone is not enough to pop out warplanes, tanks, drones etc. Of course having smaller deficit is nice and will put less strain on western countries, which at the moment effectively keep Ukraine afloat thanks to covering its deficits, but it does not change the situation of war effort by any means. If there would be no grain export, West would have to pay higher bill for keeping Ukraine up, but lets face that, money is of least concern, especially for countries like Germany, which are more comfortable with paying the bills than military support(not saying that they not help, just prefer to base support on money for various reasons).

Overall the cost of covering Ukraine deficit is not a big deal for western joint effort. Much bigger problem would be, if entire north Africa started to starve. This was Ruzzians main target to create further disruption in the western countries by destabilizing masses of hungry Africans. They are actively supporting illegal African immigrants long before the war started so it would fit perfectly in this strategy. Any Ukrainian income, which would be hurt during the process was secondary target.

In general, keeping the grain exports up is important for various of reasons like mentioned World food security issue, better economy kickstart after the war, etc. but won't help directly in any meaningful way in fighting Ruzzians. When Ukraine kicks out the last Ruzzian out of its borders, we can surely expect very powerful rebuild program, which should put the country back on its tracks despite any previous headwinds.

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41 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This just shows how bad Russian training is.  The SOP for coming under fire like that should be to disperse in different directions and seek whatever cover is available, then somehow consolidate when it's less 'splody.

Why did they even attempt this death ride in a BTR of all things? Particularly In the absence of UKR artillery they would be better off scouting on foot

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19 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Russians (?) reportedly tapped talk between German officers regarding, among others, quality of Taurus missiles. Interesting details regarding targeting processes and inventive ways to bypass formal declarations for their delivery to UA. English subs.

 

This has been officially verified as being genuine. And I had no doubt about it. It was like hundreds of project meetings I had had to enjoy. :)

Of course, our government is not amused and there are lots of critics. But OTOH, the way these guys discuss the matter is very pragmatic and down to earth. They discuss the political and technical ramifications and search for solutions (and find them). Kraft has summarized this very well, although the English subs are quite bad.

The things got hacked because one of the guys was in Singapore and probably didn't use a VPN.

 

 

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40 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Why did they even attempt this death ride in a BTR of all things? Particularly In the absence of UKR artillery they would be better off scouting on foot

Its about 1 km on foot over an empty field from Stepove to Berdychi, even without artillery that would barely work given FPV and a few MGs to hold them in place. Then another 1km before they can really touch defensive positions properly.

They could do it at night, but Bradleys there have thermal so even more disadvantage. According to the marks there, they tried to cross on foot too and received drones.

asdasdt.png

Edited by Kraft
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2 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

A video and some images near Avdiivka.

Vehicles of 15th motor-rifle "peacemaking" brigade from Samara. Single Russian brigade on BTRs. They recently had BTR-80, but since 2016 they gradually substituted tehm on BTR-82A. Now you can see incereaced number of BTR-80 losses in reports of Oryx team - 15th brigade due to losses again brougt back BTR-80 in service. 

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