How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

57 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Ok, so Avdiivka is over, even Coke plant was abandoned by 3rd Brigade. Probably a right decision, it was a mighty position but vulnerable to being cut off.

Interesting post by one of foreign fighters, even if some numbers seem dubious. Also don't forget to open translation of another post by (supposedly, but be aware it may be psyops) Russian colonel  and read his view about their losses, translated by Dmitri.

Next object of Russian attack- Robotyne bulge?

Even if we discount the numbers posted by the volunteer, the description of the fighting checks out with what we've seen in drone footage and the previously reported Russian tactics at the end of Bakhmut.  The description of friendly casualties also checks out with what we've seen of this battle specifically, but also previous ones.

Russia's attrition strategy is consistent and remains unchanged.  We've seen a pattern both small scale local attacks as well as relatively large operations (Vuhledar, Bakhmut, Krynky, and Avdiivka).  It consists of:

1. Select a specific, fairly small, terrain objective that Ukraine will likely fight hard to keep
2. Smash the chosen point with massed artillery, air, and armored infantry forces in rapid succession
3. The focus is on causing Ukrainian casualties, not preserving forces or perhaps not even necessarily taking the objective
4. Continue attacks without regard to friendly losses on the assumption friendly resources are inexhaustible whereas enemy resources are limited
5. When the immediate supply of armored vehicles runs out, or possibly after certain battlefield conditions exist, switch to sending in waves of dismounted infanty
6. If all goes well each attack produces an incremental gain of ground and weakening of Ukrainian defenders, obligating Ukraine to keep committing resources which can then become worn down with subsequent attacks

I think of this as a "Darwinian Leap Frog" strategy.  Evolution does not favor an individual, it favors long term persistence of great numbers of individuals.  A Russian goes forward and probably gets slaughtered, but perhaps some small portion of it survives and maintains some amount of ground.  Regardless, in the process of defeating the Russian attack the Ukrainians expend resources that aren't available for the next attack.  That next attack is designed to build upon whatever gains the previous attack might have achieved.  This continues until the objective is taken, regardless of the cost.  Doesn't matter if it's armored or infantry based, the overall nature of the strategy is the same.

The strategy of repeatedly losing disproportionally large amounts of force for very small gains, then repeating until the gains have significance, is nothing new.  Even the minutia of Russia's current strategy is the same as it was in the days before armored vehicles.  The novelty of it seems to be that everybody, including me (as I've said 100s of times in this thread), assumes Russia wouldn't be able to keep this sort of "inhuman" strategy going.  Yet it has.  At least so far.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Some follow up thoughts on Navalny’s death...

Obviously the Putin regime is fine with him dying as they have previously tried to assassinate him.  They imprisoned him only because it became the easier option after attention was shed on those attempts and Navalny's refusal to go into exile (and probably get "Trotsky'd" some time later).

With this in mind, the only question is "why now?".  The answer might very well be that this wasn't planned at all.  It could be the combination of the previous attacks and general brutal treatment (no doubt he was routinely beaten) finally resulted in his death.  No specific plan, just circumstances.

Whatever the case is, the Putin regime killed Navalny and likely has zero regrets he's now dead, even if the timing might not have been optimal.

Steve

[Grigb]

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

 The novelty of it seems to be that everybody, including me (as I've said 100s of times in this thread), assumes Russia wouldn't be able to keep this sort of "inhuman" strategy going.  Yet it has.  At least so far.

Steve

Pressure Cooker effect - it can withstand significant pressure much longer than you can normally expect but, in the end, it would catastrophically explode.

[Sequoia]

Might Putin think capturing towns such as Avdiivka, despite fierce Ukrainian resistance, will break Ukrainian will (which even the Captain posited as a hypothetical). 

Edited February 17 by Sequoia

[Battlefront.com]

40 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Pressure Cooker effect - it can withstand significant pressure much longer than you can normally expect but, in the end, it would catastrophically explode.

Absolutely.  And even if Ukraine surrenders fully and unconditionally, it could be that things in Russia may still explode.  There's so many problems that are the result of this war that can not be solved by "winning" it.

36 minutes ago, Sequoia said:

Might Putin think capturing towns such as Avdiivka, despite fierce Ukrainian resistance, will break Ukrainian will (which even the Captain posited as a hypothetical). 

Oh for sure that's part of it.  Making Ukrainians believe that they can't hold anything that Russia seeks to take, no matter how many of them die in the process, *is* very demoralizing.  A standard part of being a bully is humiliation/demoralization as a means of getting something from the victim.

Steve

[Beleg85]

57 minutes ago, Sequoia said:

Might Putin think capturing towns such as Avdiivka, despite fierce Ukrainian resistance, will break Ukrainian will (which even the Captain hinted may be a remote possibilty.)

This particular one is rather for domestic consumption. Though unlike Bakhmut, Avdiivka was indeed a fortified symbol of Ukrainian defiance from 2015 and battle for it can be explained in rational military terms, as theoretical road for Ukrainian advance into Donetsk.

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

The strategy of repeatedly losing disproportionally large amounts of force for very small gains, then repeating until the gains have significance, is nothing new.  Even the minutia of Russia's current strategy is the same as it was in the days before armored vehicles.  The novelty of it seems to be that everybody, including me (as I've said 100s of times in this thread), assumes Russia wouldn't be able to keep this sort of "inhuman" strategy going.  Yet it has.  At least so far.

Yup. It seems they already started to think about next objectives and some nat telegrams laudate how quickly Ukies left the town this time (they expected Azovstal 2.0). Which is hilarious, but they apparaently have some small morale boost, on the top of giant hangover cause of casualties. All in all, it is at Kremlin where things are decided what to do next, muscovite soldiers have little to tell.

Edited February 17 by Beleg85

[kimbosbread]

13 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ironic that critics of Syrskyi try to paint him as a brainless general who cares about prestige instead of the lives of his men, and then just a week after taking command he withdraws from one of the bloodiest battles Ukraine has ever fought.

As I suspected, the characterizations of Syrskyi by some appears to be off the mark.

I want to second this in particular. This makes me more optimistic for the rest of 2024.

EDIT: If Ukraine can bait Russia into a series of Phyrric victories, that would be amazing. Hopefully Robotyne has been properly fortified, and just as importantly given some real air defenses. Without glide bombs and with supply routes that are more vulnerable, it seems like the perfect place for another 50-100k Russians to die.

Edited February 17 by kimbosbread

[Maciej Zwolinski]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

nteresting post by one of foreign fighters, even if some numbers seem dubious. Also don't forget to open translation of another post by (supposedly, but be aware it may be psyops) Russian colonel  and read his view about their losses, translated by Dmitri.

The messages of col. Shuvalov (may not be a real name) strongly resemble letters from Verdun

[Maciej Zwolinski]

46 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Hopefully Robotyne has been properly fortified, and just as importantly given some real air defenses. Without glide bombs and with supply routes that are more vulnerable, it seems like the perfect place for another 50-100k Russians to die.

Why without glide bombs? What would prevent russia from using glide bombs around Robotyne?

[Maciej Zwolinski]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The novelty of it seems to be that everybody, including me (as I've said 100s of times in this thread), assumes Russia wouldn't be able to keep this sort of "inhuman" strategy going.  Yet it has.  At least so far.

Re. inhumanity of that strategy - note it bears a strong resemblance to how Wagner would advance its convict units and everybody thought this was only possible because nobody cared about the convicts. Now ordinary Russian military units are using the same strategy, with the same insane risks to the individual infantrymen. 

[keas66]

4 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Re. inhumanity of that strategy - note it bears a strong resemblance to how Wagner would advance its convict units and everybody thought this was only possible because nobody cared about the convicts. Now ordinary Russian military units are using the same strategy, with the same insane risks to the individual infantrymen. 

Honestly - Historically - when have the Russian Military  ever  behaved differently in any   major wars they have been involved  in ?

The value of human life in Russia appears to be evaluated with a completely non-western view of things . In what other modern army do we see soldiers choosing suicide as a actual battlefield choice ?

One can  I think ,  understand  a little the anti-russian / anti-communist propaganda of the past about hoardes of  sub-human robots  making human/meat  wave style attacks  no matter the cost .

[Grigb]

There is a phone intercept of L-DPR soldier that I personally determined to be genuine (voice, accent, and emotions appear authentic).

Interesting points:

• From the attack, just 6 out of 25 returned.
• In the guy formation two regiments are almost completely gone (UKR 3rd TG channel mentioned that in recent fighting two RU two brigades were almost completely destroyed)
• Slavs [seems to be nickname of RU troops] do not allow to pick up dead bodies [of L-DPR soldiers]. TOS-1 is used to burn dead: "so that we don't walk on them" and to prevent rotting.

[Eddy]

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.bsky.social/post/3klmt52fyau2i

Quote

️Czech President Petr Pavel revealed Munich that the Czech Republic has discovered 800.000 (!) shells for delivery to Ukraine, consisting of 500.000 155-mm caliber shells and 300.000 122-mm caliber shells. 

https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/rus/news/2024/02/17/7179875/

Apparently, the Czechs have persuaded various countries to sell 155 shells. Someone just needs to pony up the money

The President of the Czech Republic says that he has found 800 thousand shells for delivery to Ukraine | European Pravda (eurointegration.com.ua)

According to Pavel, the Czech Republic has found artillery ammunition for Ukraine - Seznam Zprávy (seznamzpravy.cz)

 

[LongLeftFlank]

https://about.opnxng.com/blog/#nitter

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2024/02/twitter-front-end-nitter-dies-as-musk-wins-war-against-third-party-services/

Der Nitter ist verloren.

The ongoing march of en****tificaton

Edited February 17 by LongLeftFlank

[cesmonkey]

25 minutes ago, Eddy said:

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.bsky.social/post/3klmt52fyau2i

Apparently, the Czechs have persuaded various countries to sell 155 shells. Someone just needs to pony up the money

The President of the Czech Republic says that he has found 800 thousand shells for delivery to Ukraine | European Pravda (eurointegration.com.ua)

According to Pavel, the Czech Republic has found artillery ammunition for Ukraine - Seznam Zprávy (seznamzpravy.cz)

 

From the last article you linked:
 

Quote

The president did not specify in which countries the ammunition is located. Minister of Defense Jana Černochová (ODS) didn't either - on the grounds that the countries condition cooperation on the fact that specific data about them will not be published.

At the beginning of February, the Brussels website Politico wrote that the Czech Republic is interested in ammunition from arms companies in, for example, South Korea, Turkey or the Republic of South Africa.

 

[billbindc]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Even if we discount the numbers posted by the volunteer, the description of the fighting checks out with what we've seen in drone footage and the previously reported Russian tactics at the end of Bakhmut.  The description of friendly casualties also checks out with what we've seen of this battle specifically, but also previous ones.

Russia's attrition strategy is consistent and remains unchanged.  We've seen a pattern both small scale local attacks as well as relatively large operations (Vuhledar, Bakhmut, Krynky, and Avdiivka).  It consists of:

1. Select a specific, fairly small, terrain objective that Ukraine will likely fight hard to keep
2. Smash the chosen point with massed artillery, air, and armored infantry forces in rapid succession
3. The focus is on causing Ukrainian casualties, not preserving forces or perhaps not even necessarily taking the objective
4. Continue attacks without regard to friendly losses on the assumption friendly resources are inexhaustible whereas enemy resources are limited
5. When the immediate supply of armored vehicles runs out, or possibly after certain battlefield conditions exist, switch to sending in waves of dismounted infanty
6. If all goes well each attack produces an incremental gain of ground and weakening of Ukrainian defenders, obligating Ukraine to keep committing resources which can then become worn down with subsequent attacks

I think of this as a "Darwinian Leap Frog" strategy.  Evolution does not favor an individual, it favors long term persistence of great numbers of individuals.  A Russian goes forward and probably gets slaughtered, but perhaps some small portion of it survives and maintains some amount of ground.  Regardless, in the process of defeating the Russian attack the Ukrainians expend resources that aren't available for the next attack.  That next attack is designed to build upon whatever gains the previous attack might have achieved.  This continues until the objective is taken, regardless of the cost.  Doesn't matter if it's armored or infantry based, the overall nature of the strategy is the same.

The strategy of repeatedly losing disproportionally large amounts of force for very small gains, then repeating until the gains have significance, is nothing new.  Even the minutia of Russia's current strategy is the same as it was in the days before armored vehicles.  The novelty of it seems to be that everybody, including me (as I've said 100s of times in this thread), assumes Russia wouldn't be able to keep this sort of "inhuman" strategy going.  Yet it has.  At least so far.

Steve

I am hearing that the Russians lost something on the order of 1100 vehicles of various types attacking Avdiivka. If correct, Russia is fighting a war of attrition...against itself.

[cesmonkey]

Also from this 2002 report from Human Rights Watch
https://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/related_material/submunitions.pdf
these countries also produce 155mm munitions:

    Argentina
    Egypt
    Israel
    Pakistan

Singapore produces 152mm shells.
 

[JonS]

8 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Singapore produces 152mm shells.

Lolwut? That doesn't sound right, surely?

[Rokko]

7 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

 

It looks like these forward SAM ambushes (assuming that that is what got 'em) would also be the solution against the Russian glide bomb threat. They'd need more of these systems do be able to do it more often and boldly, though. Right now, losing even a single of theses systems would probably be a greater catastrophe for Ukraine than losing a handful of jets every now and then is for Russia.

[Kraft]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

I am hearing that the Russians lost something on the order of 1100 vehicles of various types attacking Avdiivka. If correct, Russia is fighting a war of attrition...against itself.

I am curious about the tally. Lets see, Avdiivka was the most one sided battle in terms of vehicle losses.

224 tanks, more than twice the total Ukrainian losses. Best Case scenario, a 10-1 ratio.

Using the Swedish FOI as a source, russia builds/refurbishes ~44 tanks/m. So they are short about a month, or gained 2 months if all the abandoned vehicles can be recovered.

With a production rate of close to 0.

And foreign aid (pledged or delivered) as of my knowledge: 0.

Loss of 21, that will likely not be replaced within.. half a year, full year? Unknown.

You can draw it parallel for IFVs and the rest, although I think those are more likely to be replenished by the West albeit in insufficient numbers.

Edited February 17 by Kraft

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/17/alexei-navalny-death-confirmed-official-cause-of-death-disputed

In Russia itself, at least 340 people have been detained at events across 30 cities since Navalny’s death, according to the rights group OVD-Info.

 

I freely acknowledge that these people extremely brave and well intentioned, but it would be vastly more useful to get sent to a gulag for railroad sabotage than for holding up a sign.

[Bulletpoint]

2 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Re. inhumanity of that strategy - note it bears a strong resemblance to how Wagner would advance its convict units and everybody thought this was only possible because nobody cared about the convicts. Now ordinary Russian military units are using the same strategy, with the same insane risks to the individual infantrymen. 

As I understand it, they use convicts and penal battalions for the constant meat assaults, but the actual (more or less) professional soldiers are kept in reserve for exploiting breakthroughs when a weak point is found.

[billbindc]

14 minutes ago, Kraft said:

I am curious about the tally. Lets see, Avdiivka was the most one sided battle in terms of vehicle losses.

224 tanks

Using the swedish FOI as a source, russia builds/refurbishes ~44 tanks/m. So they are short about a month, or gained 2 months if all the abandoned vehicles can be recovered.

With a production rate of close to 0.

And foreign aid (pledged or delivered) as of my knowledge: 0.

Loss of 21, that will likely not be replaced within a month. Probably not even this year.

You can draw it parallel for IFVs and the rest, although I think those are more likely to be replenished by the west albeit in insufficient numbers.

Anthony Perpetua is clocking Russian losses at effectively double the Swedish tally. We'll see who is right eventually.

 

[Grigb]

30 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

As I understand it, they use convicts and penal battalions for the constant meat assaults, but the actual (more or less) professional soldiers are kept in reserve for exploiting breakthroughs when a weak point is found.

There aren't many zeks or penal battalions around. It is more often second-rate foot infantry formations are sent forward first. But once they are gone eventually more elite formations are being fed into meat grinder. But yes, they do try to keep first rate mech formations out of meat grinder as long as possible.

[Beleg85]

41 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

As I understand it, they use convicts and penal battalions for the constant meat assaults, but the actual (more or less) professional soldiers are kept in reserve for exploiting breakthroughs when a weak point is found.

They tend to conserve older units for crucial moments, but it is wrong to assume most of Storm-Z are convicts, "500-s" or narcomans. There are plenty of actual volunteers there and nowadays regular units are also thrown into assaults as well, when needed. Generally, Russian army now perform task that were reserved for Wagner or LDPR cannon fodder before. Which is not necessarly good sign.

 

[Ninja'ed by Grigb.]

Edited February 17 by Beleg85