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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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FRANCE DIGS IN ON ‘BUY EUROPEAN’: While the bloc ramps up shell production, it could seek to alleviate Ukraine’s immediate shortage by using EU money to jointly purchase ammo on the global market.  Non: Yet, according to three EU diplomats, a small group of countries led by France is blocking attempts to use EU money for buying shells from outside of the bloc. The reason? European arms manufacturers need orders to justify ramping up their production.  How it went down: Earlier this week at a meeting of the Political and Security Committee, a majority of EU countries was in favor of allowing EU money to be used to buy non-EU produced shells as an emergency measure to help Ukraine, the diplomats told Playbook. But France, Greece and Cyprus opposed the effort, the diplomats said.

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/fear-and-loathing-in-munich/

A reminder for all America's uselessness, Europe remains a close competitor.

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1 minute ago, FancyCat said:

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/fear-and-loathing-in-munich/

A reminder for all America's uselessness, Europe remains a close competitor.

While I am not in favor of it, I can understand the reasoning well.

The European arms industry is structured completely differently than the American one.  

They cannot be ordered to increase production, they rely entirely on orders. 

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3 hours ago, dan/california said:

This, Putin is making a push to reset the entire board in his favor. This is of course facilitated by both Mike Johnson and Donald Trump. Biden needs to find a way to push back, HARD.

Right now that would be getting re-elected.  As we discussed at length the other guy is promising to toss his own political opponents in jail too.

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55 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Remember the people who gave Putin reasons to think that the reaction to Navalny’s death wouldn’t be that significant: 

 

What a squealing little worm.

I know LotR is more popular here (for good reasons) but he reminds me of that rat of Ronald Weasely who turned out to be a cowardly traitor

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35 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Right now that would be getting re-elected.  As we discussed at length the other guy is promising to toss his own political opponents in jail too.

Yes but Ukraine getting hammered makes Biden look weak, and bad. If they can't get something thru Congress in another month he needs to start declaring things scrap, or selling Ukraine 155 shells for a dollar apiece, or otherwise take a hammer to the bureaucratic porcelain. I am not saying that is a good option, just the best of the bad ones available.

 

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1 hour ago, Kraft said:

What a squealing little worm.

I know LotR is more popular here (for good reasons) but he reminds me of that rat of Ronald Weasely who turned out to be a cowardly traitor

I actually watched all the Harry Potter movies years ago but don't remember them that well.

Who Tucker reminds me of is Richard Thornburg from the Die Hard movies. But when you think about it even Thronburg was more moral compared to Tucker.

While both Tucker and Thornburg are sleazy journalists who put their ego and careers over human life, at least Thornburg actually reported the facts in Die Hard 1 and 2. That's better than I can say for Tucker, who is just flat out lying to his audience for views.

This just in, Russia is a better place to live compared to The United States!

Tucker Carlson Says Trip to Russian Grocery Store Has ‘Radicalized’ Him Against US Leaders: ‘Legitimately Angry’ (yahoo.com)

 

richard-thornburg.jpg

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52 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Yes but Ukraine getting hammered makes Biden look weak, and bad. If they can't get something thru Congress…

Biden makes himself look weak and bad. The idiot House-Republicans are not the central problem here.

If he wanted Ukraine to have more weapons, he would have gotten them through earlier, and he would be using all the dirty tricks available to do so now (ie declaring value of a lot of our military aid is $0). 

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21 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Biden makes himself look weak and bad. The idiot House-Republicans are not the central problem here.

If he wanted Ukraine to have more weapons, he would have gotten them through earlier, and he would be using all the dirty tricks available to do so now (ie declaring value of a lot of our military aid is $0). 

WTF are you even talking about???  Biden admin has been trying to get more aid to UKR and it's blocked by a group of GOP house members.  This is common knowledge to anyone w any concept of reality.  Have you been watching fox news & newsmax again?   You, once again, come up with fantasy world nonsense.  And instead of getting mad at me for this post, maybe you should be angry at the people how fill your head w this utter nonsense.

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17 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

WTF are you even talking about???  Biden admin has been trying to get more aid to UKR and it's blocked by a group of GOP house members.  This is common knowledge to anyone w any concept of reality. 

I have no right to vote in the US election and try to stay out of very heated discussions on the subject for my own safety's sake - so this is just a brief clarification comment on the general logic of the argument. Here it goes:

Is it not the whole point of Biden administration looking weak and bad that it can be blocked by a group of opposition House members (or, as some say, even one individual, the House speaker)? I mean, an administration which openly states its aims and then cannot carry them through looks weak precisely because of that.

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You do understand that longing for a government where the leader has unrestricted power is the type of government one finds in Russia currently. As Winston Churchill purportedly once said, Democracy is a terrible way to run a country, but it's far better than anything else that's been tried.

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55 minutes ago, zinz said:

Has anyone seen any content for the security guaranties Ukraine has signed with so many countries recently? 

I hate this journalism where essential information is left out all the time.... 

This fellow summarized the German-Ukrainian agreement:

 

 

 

Quote

I have worked through the 10-page bilateral security commitment, which is now valid for 10 years between Ukraine and Germany (can be extended). The most important takes ⬇️

 

1) Germany […] provide long-term military support to the Ukrainian security and defence forces to fully restore Ukraine's territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders

 

2) Germany will […] promote joint procurement and other forms of armament cooperation together with European and international partners to strengthen the Ukrainian security and defence forces

 

3) Germany will continue and where necessary expand its support in strengthening the capacity of Ukrainian security and defence forces personnel […]

 

4) Germany will […] reduce existing barriers for cooperation, encourage its defence industry to invest […] including by evaluating options for supporting the localisation of production in Ukraine, as well as by exploring opportunities for joint production

 

5) Germany will examine […] measures to mitigate existing supply chain bottlenecks impeding the development of capacity and capability of both Germany and Ukraine for manufacturing of priority weapons and ammunition

 

6) Germany will encourage its defence industry to work with Ukraine, provide assistance to its industry to identify potential areas for cooperation, and further explore localizing repair and maintenance in Ukraine […]

 

7) […] intend to further expand their existing bilateral cooperation to strengthen Ukraine’s resilience against nuclear, biological and chemical weapons-related risks

 

😎 […] will work together to secure IT infrastructure from cyber-attacks

 

9) To strengthen and expand their existing economic cooperation […] promotion of small and medium sized enterprises (SME) and will provide a secure legal and institutional framework for substantial private sector investments […] for domestic and international investment in Ukraine

 

10) In view of Ukraine’s European perspective, Germany will provide assistance for Ukraine to harmonise its regulations with EU standards

 

11) […] Germany will continue to provide long-term support to Ukraine’s overall energy sector with a special focus on green energy transition

 

12) Germany will support Ukraine in enhancing the resilience of its critical infrastructure, particularly energy, water and heat infrastructure

 

13) […] Germany will engage Ukrainian specialists with experience in critical infrastructure security to implement relevant projects on its territory and in partner countries […]

 

14) […] will continue mutual cooperation in the field of countering Russian and any other information manipulation and propaganda

 

15) In order to counter all types of activities of SOC (serious and organised crime) […] take measures to: conduct joint operations to detect and suppress SOC […] create joint working groups and joint investigation teams

 

16) Given the extraordinary scope of the challenge caused by Russia’s massive contamination of Ukrainian soil through mines, ammunitions and other explosive ordnances, Germany aims to continue providing substantial funding to humanitarian demining efforts alongside partners

 

17) […] reaffirm that the Russian Federation is to be held accountable for the damages inflicted on Ukrainian territory. Russian sovereign assets should remain immobilised until the Russian Federation has paid for the damage it has caused to Ukraine.

 

Germany, working with its partners in the European Union and within the G7, aims to continue to pursue all lawful routes through which revenues from Russian assets can be used to support Ukraine, in accordance with European and international law.

 

18) […] intend to strengthen their cooperation in the field of customs, as well as in the field of financial market supervision, including public sector banks

 

19) […] recognise that Ukraine and the whole of Europe will not be secure until there is a just peace that respects Ukraine’s rights under international law and the UN Charter

 

21) In the event of future Russian armed attack against Ukraine, at the request of either of the Participants, the Participants will consult within 24 hours to determine appropriate next steps

 

22) Germany affirms that in those circumstances […] it would provide Ukraine […] with swift and sustained security assistance, modern military equipment across all domains […] and economic assistance, seek agreement in the EU to impose economic and other costs on Russia […]

 

Edited by Carolus
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3 minutes ago, Sequoia said:

You do understand that longing for a government where the leader has unrestricted power is the type of government one finds in Russia currently. As Winston Churchill purportedly once said, Democracy is a terrible way to run a country, but it's far better than anything else that's been tried.

I understand that but that is not the point.  The point is that in this case democracy has generated a situation where the executive branch of the governement is blocked from realising its preferred policy and in that sense, seems weak.

I am not offering any value judgements on the US constitutional system of checks and balances because I do not have enough knowledge of it. I also have not seen any evidence for longing for a Russian-type governement on this thread.

I am already regretting making that post. 

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6 minutes ago, Carolus said:

This fellow summarized the German-Ukrainian agreement:

That is not a security guarantee agreement though. It is about supply of arms, various ways of political cooperation etc. But security guarantee is a type of military alliance which nobody will sign with Ukraine now, obviously.

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4 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

That is not a security guarantee agreement though. It is about supply of arms, various ways of political cooperation etc. But security guarantee is a type of military alliance which nobody will sign with Ukraine now, obviously.

That is true. Only 21) and 22) allude to that direction.

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1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

WTF are you even talking about???  Biden admin has been trying to get more aid to UKR and it's blocked by a group of GOP house members.  This is common knowledge to anyone w any concept of reality.  Have you been watching fox news & newsmax again?   You, once again, come up with fantasy world nonsense.  And instead of getting mad at me for this post, maybe you should be angry at the people how fill your head w this utter nonsense.

Please remind me when did the Republicans took the house. If I’m not mistaken, Biden’s admin had almost a year where they could have done almost anything they wanted in terms of aid… but they didn’t.

The slow-rolling of useful equipment, and refusal to give aid in quantity (cluster shells that we aren’t using, old ATACMS, all of the old Bradleys, F16s with volunteer pilots, a cruise missile for every missile that caused a civilian death etc.)… that’s entirely on the executive branch. We’ve all been complaining about this since the beginning of this war.

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6 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Biden’s admin had almost a year where they could have done almost anything they wanted in terms of aid… but they didn’t.

Ahhh the beauty of hindsight...

Do you realise how difficult it is to do stuff in government and you are blaming them for not doing it all in one year....

What a joke....

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I'm hopeful significant US aide will still be passed soon. Most of the US public still supports it, despite the bs campaign by the usual suspects, and IMHO many more Republicans actually want to support it, and will if they can find the "cover" to do so.

 

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4 hours ago, Kraft said:

What a squealing little worm.

I know LotR is more popular here (for good reasons) but he reminds me of that rat of Ronald Weasely who turned out to be a cowardly traitor

LotR deservedly should be more popular, but I think you might be thinking of Peter Pettigrew in the Harry Potter books.

 

ps. I mis-read your post. I did not see the of before Ronald so we're thinking of the same person. ;)

Edited by Sequoia
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1 hour ago, kimbosbread said:

Please remind me when did the Republicans took the house. If I’m not mistaken, Biden’s admin had almost a year where they could have done almost anything they wanted in terms of aid… but they didn’t.

The slow-rolling of useful equipment, and refusal to give aid in quantity (cluster shells that we aren’t using, old ATACMS, all of the old Bradleys, F16s with volunteer pilots, a cruise missile for every missile that caused a civilian death etc.)… that’s entirely on the executive branch. We’ve all been complaining about this since the beginning of this war.

$75 billion in aid and the coordination of another $54 billion or so from our allies but hey, what have you done for me lately? 

https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts

Which is another way to say that if you are concentrating on particular weapons systems  instead of aggregate economic/military/diplomatic aid than I think you are doing it wrong. 

And on that note, I'm going to head out to a very excellent dive bar of my acquaintance with some friends and drink to the $450 million or so that some old pro-Putin bastard lost in court in NY today. 

Cheers.

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