How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[NamEndedAllen]

7 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Well first off you may be surprised to learn that we hear all sorts of opinions on the trajectory of the Defender of the Free World - your personal spin is but one of them.  I am still not sure what has changed here.  We already had a Trump admin and what I saw was a lot of his worst impulses blocked, delayed and generally smothered by legal action and good old bureaucratic friction.  Trump still has to deal with the state level governments etc as well.  So in his first incredibly chaotic admin we saw a whole lot of noise and light but little actual substance - kind of the brand.  Jan 6th and COVID were about as close to the cliff face as we saw and then the machine defended itself.

So ok we got your spin on all this - Trump = bad idea.  But what has fundamentally changed in 4 short years that would give Trump supreme dictator powers that he lacked last time?  His own party is just as weak at holding him in check as last time.  Security and armed forces are not entirely onboard.  So what is the big shift that would allow these nightmare scenarios to unfold?

I mean as an outsider “hey look the sky is falling, again…”. I am still not seeing how Trumps political opponents could not conspire to check and pushback any less than his supporters have during the last few years.  We already lived through one Trump-pocolypse.  Finally despite a lot of predictions Ukrainian aid continued to flow - held up in the gears now but also looks like it might get through eventually.  NATO held together and the US appears to agree on China as the threat.  So now Trump gets in and all that goes away?

So it is not “listening to what I want to hear”. It is listening to a lot of voices saying something other than you.  You know, like good balanced critical thinking should be doing?  I do get that it could be bad, very bad.  But you are basically taking about an inevitable slide into another US Civil War and I have to believe that there are some off-ramps and relief valves here.

You *still* seem to be ignoring the rest of us here, who have been warning and pointing out developments, like debate rhetoric? Maybe better to understand that it is only human to filter out or dismiss what doesn’t fit your preferences. But heck, don’t take our word for it. Not sure where you obtain your political news but If you feel whiplashed, you definitely need to read more widely the massive reporting down there in the USA that has been a steady drumbeat about the end of democracy, the concerns about autocracy, the planning leaking from Trump’s team, the failure during four years to exact effective accountability, and the rock solid core support for not only Trump but for Trumpism despite everything. None of this guarantees the worst! But there darn sure has been a *consistent* substantive warning shout from the USA and a number of us here.  You do have to actually read them though. 
PS I’d appreciate you not putting words in our mouths and then mocking them. I never said “inevitable slide into civil war”. I suggest, point out, reference, and describe how what was unthinkable a few years ago *might* happen. But am NOT saying “inevitable”. And only you are saying an autocracy here would mean civil war. Doubtful, as many people wouldn’t either care, notice, or have any meaningful way to resist. As in the WashPost article I linked here a while ago. But read up in these for a start:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/20/us/politics/trump-rhetoric-fascism.html  https://time.com/6550686/trump-autocracy-dictator-polling/  https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/last-exit-trump-autocracy/616466/ https://www.businessinsider.com/ex-white-house-official-warns-of-a-us-autocracy-if-trump-wins-2nd-term-2021-11?op=1   
https://www.poynter.org/commentary/2023/how-to-report-trump-win-2024/ https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2023-10-08/donald-trump-republican-party-autocratic-movement-dissent 

There are countless more. All you have to do is look.
 

Edited February 12 by NamEndedAllen

[Eddy]

18 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Again, the war is a piece of domestic policy as much as it is foreign policy

Timothy Snyder described Stalin's Soviet Union in Bloodlands like this

Quote

Its [the Soviet Union's] foreign policy was always domestic policy, and its domestic policy was always foreign policy (pp74)

It struck me at the time of reading that described Putin's Russia just as well as Stalin's Soviet Union

Edited February 12 by Eddy

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

Sanctions are working

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/350176938/russias-planes-are-falling-apart-west-blocks-repairs

I watched today interview with RU liberal economist Milov

Here are two additional examples of how sanctions affect RU economy.

Export revenue declined dramatically (keep in mind that export is the primary source of foreign currency used to purchase critical items that Russia does not produce), while import costs grew noticeably.

 

The cost of transportation significantly increased compared to pre-war level.

Life has become better; life has become more fun! (Stalin, couple of years after catastrophic famine in USSR)

Another interesting highlight is:

• Due to previous savings (from oil and gas revenues) and various government actions RU still has money to continue war spending on the current level for a year (2024) and that's it
• Due to sanctions and various government actions RU economy is a train wreck in motion and RU government has no means to fix it. 

Lest look at the following graph

Critical RU civilian production output is decreasing rather than increasing. The only growth is in the military sector, and the RU government uses it to deceive the western public about the state of the Russian economy.

[Kraft]

25th Air Assault Brigade captured a live Rusich member (Robotyne-Verbove?)

In case you missed the signs, its a neo nazi group. They cut off the head of a PoW with a knife, then removed his hands and filmed themselfs for evidence(censor.net, not a direct link to the video).

Their (ex?)leader Yan Petrovsky is currently held in Finnland and not being extradited for fears his treatment would be below skandanavian levels.

Edited February 12 by Kraft

[NamEndedAllen]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

We have heard all sort of voices on this forum coming at this from different angles and they definitely are not all saying the same thing.

Hey! The posts from me have been in response to you claiming a whiplash injury! As if “everyone* was saying the guardrails will hold if Trump takes over, and now hearing a number of us saying, there are good reasons to suggest they will not. No one is saying you must adopt certain opinions. Plain and simple not to ignore them as never having been expressed. To be clear, I am still glad for your faith in the USA! And far more than you, I hope you and the opinions  you are apparently endorsing “it can’t happen here”, are how things turn out. But for the love of Pete please don’t simply ignore, hope, dismiss, and then claim shock if things get even stickier down here than we have already experienced. The election is pretty much on a knife edge, and the future is unwritten. 

Edited February 12 by NamEndedAllen

[The_Capt]

17 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

You *still* seem to be ignoring the rest of us here, who have been warning and pointing out developments, like debate rhetoric? Maybe better to understand that it is only human to filter out or dismiss what doesn’t fit your preferences. But heck, don’t take our word for it. Not sure where you obtain your political news but If you feel whiplashed, you definitely need to read more widely the massive reporting down there in the USA that has been a steady drumbeat about the end of democracy, the concerns about autocracy, the planning leaking from Trump’s team, the failure during four years to exact effective accountability, and the rock solid core support for not only Trump but for Trumpism despite everything. None of this guarantees the worst! But there darn sure has been a *consistent* substantive warning shout from the USA and a number of us here.  You do have to actually read them though.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/20/us/politics/trump-rhetoric-fascism.html  https://time.com/6550686/trump-autocracy-dictator-polling/  https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/last-exit-trump-autocracy/616466/ https://www.businessinsider.com/ex-white-house-official-warns-of-a-us-autocracy-if-trump-wins-2nd-term-2021-11?op=1   
https://www.poynter.org/commentary/2023/how-to-report-trump-win-2024/ https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2023-10-08/donald-trump-republican-party-autocratic-movement-dissent 

There are countless more. All you have to do is look.
 

Dude, ok it is getting weird now.  This is like being on a bus and the guy next to you asks “Do you know about Jesus?”  I am not asking what Trump says he will do?  I am not asking what he wants to do?  I am asking that all things being equal and he winds up in some sort of inverse version of where Biden is right now…what can Trump actually do?

Given his absurd declarations last time compared to what actually got done, we have precedent here.  I think I can safely say that your position is pretty clear and duly noted.  Now I am going to go find another place to sit - and maybe find someone a bit more pragmatic about the whole thing.

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Given his absurd declarations last time compared to what actually got done, we have precedent here.  I think I can safely say that your position is pretty clear and duly noted.  Now I am going to go find another place to sit - and maybe find someone a bit more pragmatic about the whole thing.

The seat next to me is open!  Oddly folks come over, sit next to me and shortly thereafter move somewhere else.  Maybe it is just meant to be so c'mon, sit down. 

[Centurian52]

1 hour ago, Pablius said:

Regarding Trump, hi from Latin America (Argentina) land of great football and sometimes populist egomaniacs...

I´ll just paste something I wrote in January of 2017 on another forum:

"Coming from a country with it´s fair share of populists in it´s history, let me tell you a couple of things about what will happen:

First: it´s not about policies, it´s not about facts, now it´s only about power and how to keep it

Second: the only thing that will be rewarded is loyalty, it may or may not align with skills, it doesn't matter any more

Third: it´s not about liberal and conservative, It´s not about democrat or republican, now it´s about trump or anti trump, there will be no middle ground to hide, both coalitions will have members of previous coalitions, those won´t matter much anymore, more republicans will be on Trump´s coalition because he was elected as one of course

Fourth: his only objective is reelection, and after that a third mandate, and a fourth and so on, to this end he will push any policy he deems useful, left wing or right wing, won´t matter, he sometimes will be align with former liberal/democrat ideas, he will take ownership of anything that promotes him, claiming it was his idea all along

Fifth: any source of check and balances will be targeted as traitorous, anti american, etc., this includes the press, other parties, the supreme court, whatever, anyone he sees as a member of the anti trump coalition is now a target, for now of rhetoric only, time will tell how far he will be allowed to go, and don´t think for a second there is something he won't do, or that he has any moral limit, he doesn't

Good luck trying to rationalize his government into anything other than an ego trip

His only weak point is succession, like every populists he hates the idea of giving power up, to anyone, even his children, he won´t groom a successor and get mad every time this point comes up

I sincerely hope current checks and balances work, but I´m not optimistic, lots of people will come under the spell, it´s tough times for anyone that can´t escape facts, reason, science, for those are now the enemies of the US government."

 

Not spot on in every point, but It came close to happen the first time around, now he has evolved and learned, it will be worst.

The paradox is that it was in the hands of Republican Senators to impeach and keep him out of office for good, they failed.

 

 

This all aligns well with The Dictator's Handbook. Definitely a book that I can highly recommend to anyone who wants to understand how autocrats tick.

[NamEndedAllen]

26 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Dude, ok it is getting weird now.  This is like being on a bus and the guy next to you asks “Do you know about Jesus?”  I am not asking what Trump says he will do?  I am not asking what he wants to do?  I am asking that all things being equal and he winds up in some sort of inverse version of where Biden is right now…what can Trump actually do?

Given his absurd declarations last time compared to what actually got done, we have precedent here.  I think I can safely say that your position is pretty clear and duly noted.  Now I am going to go find another place to sit - and maybe find someone a bit more pragmatic about the whole thing.

My, you have colorful if irrelevant rhetorical devices! Irrelevant, but colorful. I believe Ive addressed your strawmen sufficiently but please do pay attention to what billbindc, Vet, Dan, and the rest have said more succinctly than I have. We’ve outlined what he can do and why. And read that reporting you likely didn’t. Now back to our War!

****

Remember saying this a few pages ago:

‘ I have brought up states removing Trump from the ballot, Ukraine war and various other red lights.  The response has been “sure but XYZ checks, balances etc etc”  Now suddenly Trump is going to take over and rule you all like Stalin?  I am getting whiplash here”

Edited February 12 by NamEndedAllen
Quote

[dan/california]

 

 

8 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Dude, ok it is getting weird now.  This is like being on a bus and the guy next to you asks “Do you know about Jesus?”  I am not asking what Trump says he will do?  I am not asking what he wants to do?  I am asking that all things being equal and he winds up in some sort of inverse version of where Biden is right now…what can Trump actually do?

Given his absurd declarations last time compared to what actually got done, we have precedent here.  I think I can safely say that your position is pretty clear and duly noted.  Now I am going to go find another place to sit - and maybe find someone a bit more pragmatic about the whole thing.

We can agree to disagree about how awful Trump will be then. Since the best case scenario is sort of awful we should perhaps to everything possible to insure the Democrats win, though!

 

 

4 hours ago, Grigb said:

Sorry to interrupt the lively discussion about US politics, but I'd want to add my two cents regarding the Avdiivka situation.

Most likely, it will attempt to halt or slow down the current RU attack on the O0542 route. It is the most dangerous RU attack, with the potential to collapse the entire Avdiivka pocket rapidly. If 3rd manages to stop or slow this RU attack down, we could argue that 3rd indeed saved Avdiivka from quick collaps.

 

Most likely, Avdiivka is going to fall because the Russian gliding bombs (UMPK) have not been neutralized yet. Essentially, RU are simply leveling with UMPK UKR strong points that their meat groups encounter. The system works as follows: an RU meat group meets a UKR strong position, dies while the RU command watches it through drones and then RU command orders a bombing of the strong point into oblivion. A fresh RU meat group is then dispatched forward. So, given enough time and bodies, RU will capture the place that once was called Avdiivka. 

 

The situation is advantageous to UKR in Avdiivka. Avdiivka is the most fortified area in UKR. Even with UMPKs, the Koksohim plant and south urban areas are incredibly tough to breach, and RU losses are horrific.

The problem is there is a certain critical vulnerability that RU have found and are trying to exploit now. If they succeed, Avdiivka will fall swiftly. Much faster than it would be otherwise.

Let's discuss the overall situation and then look at my quick map.

RU failed to encircle Avdiivka via Stepove > Orlivka (north axis) and Vodyane > Tonenke (south axis). The assault via Tsarska Ohota (48.11372615890259, 37.77596770282691) toward the major urban area (that pipe infiltration) was originally successful but is now slow and painful. Finally, since the Azov Steel battle, RU want to avoid any major assaults on large plants such as Koksohim.

So, using their standard tactic of persistent pressure by meat groups along the front lines, they discovered the weak spot.

The O0542 road is the primary communication route for the Avdiivka defense sector. Assaulting via Avtobaza and Brevno is the shortest way to reach it. There are not many urban-style buildings in this village-style area. As a result, it provides sufficient concealment for assaulting RU meat groups while providing substantially less cover for UKR defenders against UMPKs.

If UKR manage to neutralize this assault they could hold Avdiivka a lot longer. So, I believe this is the reason UKR commit 3rd assault "to save Avdiivka".

So lets move on to the situation around Avdiivka. Does anybody have a mere detailed map of this area where the Russians seem to be finding a seam. Is there an obvious place for the Third Assault brigade to set up another defensive position? Or are they going to have smash the Russians back out of their recent gains.

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Eddy said:

Timothy Snyder described Stalin's Soviet Union in Bloodlands like this

It struck me at the time of reading that described Putin's Russia just as well as Stalin's Soviet Union

Yes...it's not Ganz's original idea though he elucidates it quite well.

Edited February 12 by billbindc

[Haiduk]

35 minutes ago, Kraft said:

25th Air Assault Brigade captured a live Rusich member (Robotyne-Verbove?)

In case you missed the signs, its a neo nazi group. They cut off the head of a PoW with a knife, then removed his hands and filmed themselfs for evidence(censor.net, not a direct link to the video).

Their (ex?)leader Yan Petrovsky is currently held in Finnland and not being extradited for fears his treatment would be below skandanavian levels.

No, this "monarcho-imperial-nazi" was captured in Luhansk oblast. He was a serviceman of elite 1st tank regiment of 4th "Kantemirovskaya" tank division. 

[Kraft]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

No, this "monarcho-imperial-nazi" was captured in Luhansk oblast. He was a serviceman of elite 1st tank regiment of 4th "Kantemirovskaya" tank division. 

Oh I did not know there was another neo nazi group operating

[The_Capt]

25 minutes ago, sburke said:

The seat next to me is open!  Oddly folks come over, sit next to me and shortly thereafter move somewhere else.  Maybe it is just meant to be so c'mon, sit down. 

It will be cool.  You do know what a strawman argument actually is, right?  That will be a good start:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

It will be cool.  You do know what a strawman argument actually is, right?  That will be a good start:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

that was that guy from the wizard of oz right?

[LongLeftFlank]

31 minutes ago, sburke said:

The seat next to me is open!  Oddly folks come over, sit next to me and shortly thereafter move somewhere else.  Maybe it is just meant to be so c'mon, sit down. 

An' I said, “Litterin'.”

An' they all moved away from me on the bench there, an' the hairy eyeball an' all kinds of mean nasty things.

...Til I said, “*And* creating a nuisance.”

An' they all came back, shook my hand, an' we had a great time on the bench, talkin' about crime, mother stabbin', father rapin', all kinds of groovy things that we was talking about on the bench, an' everything was fine.

[Fernando]

20 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

It will be cool.  You do know what a strawman argument actually is, right?  That will be a good start:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

[...] The selection form focuses on a partial and weaker (and easier to refute) representation of the opponent's position. Then the easier refutation of this weaker position is claimed to refute the opponent's complete position. [...]
 

[cesmonkey]

Podcast episode looking at the prospects for the supplemental foreign aid request (w/ Ukraine funding)  being acted upon in the U.S. House:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/war-funding-makes-headway/id1094354742?i=1000645081567
War funding makes headway
CQ Budget

Summary: Assuming the bill is passed by the Senate, don't expect the House take it up for consideration anytime soon. The House will be already be very busy trying to avoid a train wreck in 3 weeks time when the annual appropriation bills deadline hits again.

[Grigb]

37 minutes ago, dan/california said:

So lets move on to the situation around Avdiivka. Does anybody have a mere detailed map of this area where the Russians seem to be finding a seam. 

The best I can provide is this: 

I marked all relevant locations.

 

37 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Is there an obvious place for the Third Assault brigade to set up another defensive position? Or are they going to have smash the Russians back out of their recent gains.

There are industrial buildings to the right of Brevno. There are two lone urban buildings between Avtobaza and the urban area at the train station. They can be used to stage counterattacks toward railroad. I feel it is foolish to push beyond the railroad.

 

[Grigb]

Quick question - have you seen and discussed the following article: SMO and the Revolution in Military Affairs. The new weapons change the nature of the [war] fighting and force revision of tactical textbooks by former Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (2004-2008) Army General Yuri Baluyevsky?

Edited February 12 by Grigb

[The_Capt]

52 minutes ago, Fernando said:

[...] The selection form focuses on a partial and weaker (and easier to refute) representation of the opponent's position. Then the easier refutation of this weaker position is claimed to refute the opponent's complete position. [...]
 

I guess this part is what is grinding my gears...what "opponents position"?  I am trying to get a feel for what a second Trump admin is realistically and most probably capable of doing, or not doing, across a broad range of areas but mainly focusing on security and defence.

In the past when I brought up some alarm bells, the answer varied but appeared to take into consideration the realities of the US government and legal system.  Now it is Feb '24 and apparently those realties are gone and we are at the End of Days - people have posted links so it must be true.  So now I am still wondering about my first question, and then asked..."ok, so what has changed?"  I did get some answers here wrt Trump being better prepared and lined up going in (thank you billindc) - so internally to his possible admin that tracks.  Externally, I am still not sure.

I do not have a position here to be honest.  I am not a US citizen.  I am a centralist Canadian, which puts me slightly left of Karl Marx in US political spectrum.  But I am trying to separate hyperbole from real possible threats - and it is very hard given the volume.  Hell, I can't even ask the question without people jumping up and down and yelling at me for daring to ask the question in the first place.  I bring up friction issues (bureaucracy, legalities, monetary realities) that restrained him before but they are gone now for some reason.  Whatever, it is clear that this is on helluva divisive and catalytic topic that we are not going to solve on a wargame forum.  

Edited February 12 by The_Capt

[Fenris]

Quote

Two Ukrainian M142 HIMARS on an Antonov An-124-100 arrived at Harrisburg International Airport in Pennsylvania, likely for repairs. One of the HIMARS has shraphnel damage on one side, although minor. The other seems to have hit a mine and sustained a lot more damage.

The footage was uploaded 19 hours ago, so likely recent. 

Unloading starts are ~5 minute mark.  There's also a youtube link to the footage - https://youtu.be/5gVRSoPM1mY

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

2 hours ago, Kraft said:

25th Air Assault Brigade captured a live Rusich member (Robotyne-Verbove?)

I am wondering if the fact that the guy has those tattoos and the fact he has a a black eye and nose knocked sideways are entirely coincidental.

[Haiduk]

 

It's confirmed Russians have used 3M22 "Zirkon" missile in Feb 7th strike on Kyiv. The missile more likely wasn't intercepted (see the lower video - it falls verticlally and no explosion in the sky)  

Ineteresting, that recently commander of Russian frigade "Admiral Gorshkov" told "Zirkon has outstanding accuracy - if we aim in the front door of building, that this missile hit exactly this front door in wose case - the next one". This comamnder has died by own death in December 2023. And Russian "outstanding accuracy" missile hit the ground between two malls (250-300 m from each) 

 

[dan/california]

47 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Quick question - have you seen and discussed the following article: SMO and the Revolution in Military Affairs. The new weapons change the nature of the [war] fighting and force revision of tactical textbooks by former Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (2004-2008) Army General Yuri Baluyevsky?

No but I am about to go look...You are teling me there is a translation availble?