Battlefront.com Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 24 minutes ago, The_Capt said: Under normal circumstances a 5km gap is already encircled, based weapons ranges. I suspect those red swaths on the map are in fact blotches and the RA does not have firepower dominance of that 5km gap. IIRC the "Road of life" corridor into Bakhmut was done to 2km wide before Ukraine successfully withdrew. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: IIRC the "Road of life" corridor into Bakhmut was done to 2km wide before Ukraine successfully withdrew. Steve I always think it is better to think of them as clouds that get thicker the more control a side has. Right now there are red clouds 5kms apart but I am betting they are pretty misty. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Apologies if this was already posted, I missed it if it was. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Jaros Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 (edited) Brother try to kill brother we live in crazy world . This war have to finish asap Edited February 6 by David Jaros 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 46 minutes ago, David Jaros said: Brother try to kill brother we live in crazy world . This war have to finish asap Brothers don’t invade brothers bro. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Jaros Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 20 minutes ago, akd said: Brother try to kill brother we live in crazy world . This war have to finish asap Exactly we live in crazy world and war is not solution to anything 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVulture Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 minutes ago, David Jaros said: Exactly we live in crazy world and war is not solution to anything It's the best solution that Ukrane has available to it, through no fault of their own. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 8 minutes ago, David Jaros said: Exactly we live in crazy world and war is not solution to anything Armenians, and many many many other groups (too many to list) whose historical lands got 'solved' by war, progressively or all at once, might differ with that assessment. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Jaros Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 (edited) Historical lands very important if all your family got killed or familes on enemy side . Come on man wake up Edited February 6 by David Jaros 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukraine-losing-drone-war-eric-schmidt This January piece is mainly opinion, and bearish at that, but two interesting items here: A Ukrainian battle commander also told me that FPV drones are more versatile than an artillery barrage at the opening of an attack. In a traditional attack, shelling must end as friendly troops approach the enemy trench line. But FPVs are so accurate that Ukrainian pilots can continue to strike Russian targets until their fellow soldiers are mere yards away from the enemy.... Ukraine aims to acquire more than two million drones in 2024—half of which it plans to produce domestically—and Russia is on track to at least match that procurement.... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 If your in the U.S. this is the moment to write your Senators and Congressperson AGAIN! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, dan/california said: If your in the U.S. this is the moment to write your Senators and Congressperson AGAIN! you think they actually read? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 12 minutes ago, sburke said: you think they actually read? Some intern at at least counts and categorizes them. Supposedly the pay quite a bit of attention to number of letters they get on a topic. If you are motivated enough to write them, you are motivated enough to vote. Billindc might have a better answer. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simcoe Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 9 hours ago, The_Capt said: I think this is an extension of the whole Zelensky/Zaluzny thing. Politically towns and cities matter very much. Militarily the answer is far less cut and dry. Looking on the map: Adiivka has next to zero operational value. It is stubborn salient that the RA is breaking a division upon - that is its military value. If Adiivka falls it means next to nothing unless this is somehow the lynchpin of the entire UA defence in this sector - which we know it is not. No natural obstacles, no transport infra implications. Any core resources or communications tech centered on Adiivka? This whole "not one step back" plays well to the public but in reality land war is a lot of trading ground for options. And right now the RA is not buying anymore options through this whole exercise. "But if we lose it, we will just have to take it back." Well true, but if the RA breaks another division there, perhaps it might be much easier to take back afterwards? And frankly this whole sector is an offensive nightmare - you take back Adiivka...so what? Next stop is an urban hell called Donetsk. This is a side show the RA is being pushed into politically and blowing itself all to hell over. So Ukraine should keep it just as long as it keep delivering 10:1 loss ratios for the RA. After that pull back and find another Bakhmut/Aviidka and let the RA smash itself to pieces. As to Bradleys and Abrahams - sure keep them coming but they are not what this fight will ride on. C4ISR, unmanned, infantry and guns - get those right and then if there is room on the plane, load a Bradley. The RA is not some bottomless behemoth. It is a mess of a military that is playing chicken with itself. Eventually it will lose. I don't really buy this narrative. 1. It's close enough to the heart of Donetsk to shell/send drones from. This restricts the Russians ability to move and transport supplies up and down the line. 2. The most heavily fortified part of the entire line. You won't find such a large concentration of concrete bunkers after this until you reach the new line they're building farther to the west. 3. The Ukrainians have shelled civilian areas regularly from Avdiivka. As long as it stands the DPR and the civilian population will question Russians commitment to their cause. Finally, I have a hard time believing Russia is the only one suffering during this battle. It's pretty easy to geolocate equipment losses but what about infantry hit farther behind the line with artillery, thermobarics, glide bombs, FPV drones. This is a fire sac surrounded on three sides. Whether it's worth it I don't know but we have to stop assuming Russians are stupid. It's counterproductive. If they are spending this much blood and treasure and we don't understand why then there must be something they know that we don't. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 31 minutes ago, Simcoe said: I don't really buy this narrative. 1. It's close enough to the heart of Donetsk to shell/send drones from. This restricts the Russians ability to move and transport supplies up and down the line. 2. The most heavily fortified part of the entire line. You won't find such a large concentration of concrete bunkers after this until you reach the new line they're building farther to the west. 3. The Ukrainians have shelled civilian areas regularly from Avdiivka. As long as it stands the DPR and the civilian population will question Russians commitment to their cause. Finally, I have a hard time believing Russia is the only one suffering during this battle. It's pretty easy to geolocate equipment losses but what about infantry hit farther behind the line with artillery, thermobarics, glide bombs, FPV drones. This is a fire sac surrounded on three sides. Whether it's worth it I don't know but we have to stop assuming Russians are stupid. It's counterproductive. If they are spending this much blood and treasure and we don't understand why then there must be something they know that we don't. They are in fact VERY stupid. This war has lasted 23 months longer than they thought it would. Unfortunately Putin's grip on power is still so tight is doesn't matter, and somewhere between 500 and 1500 mobiks feed themselves to the meat grinder every day. Unfortunately the Ukrainians are bleeding too, we a have to keep getting them enough help for as long as it takes to run out of something the Russian army can't stay in the field without. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_Morpheus_ Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 hours ago, David Jaros said: Brother try to kill brother we live in crazy world . This war have to finish asap Interesting opinion to call a brother somebody who killing/raping/robbing you and your family Never mind, russians fully support your thoughts. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, Simcoe said: Whether it's worth it I don't know but we have to stop assuming Russians are stupid. It's counterproductive. If they are spending this much blood and treasure and we don't understand why then there must be something they know that we don't. or they really are that f'n stupid. Politics is driving the Russian army and mostly for internal consumption. What they think they know and we don't is the internal stresses within Russia and the dynamics that Putin and his cohorts face. Clearly they are willing to smash the entire country to preserve their hold on it. It isn't really rational other than to a totalitarian mindset. Their economy is getting wrecked in so many ways it is hard to see what will still be functional within a couple years, their military has deployed early cold war armor, their air defense network is slowly getting beat up without ever having faced NATO, their Navy is being eaten away ship by ship. Looking for a logical reason for what the RA is doing expecting to see some tactical rationality on the battlefield for their decisions is looking at the wrong place. That isn't what is driving their decisions. Putin is kind of like the dog that finally caught the car. He got the war he wanted but it has become such a clusterfk that he can't let go. He's locked into a set of guardrails that don't allow him out of the mess he's created so he just keeps digging that hole deeper. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 (edited) As was said in this thread before: this is one of the dumbest wars even among the list of really dumb wars in history. Extremely costly and no tangible gain - no resources, no strategic advantage, nothing. Everything Russia has is a vague manifest destiny to "make nation go big", mostly so that they can print new maps, and they are using their social acceptance of unparalleled nihilist cynicism, callousness and cruelty towards themseves and towards others to willingly go for it. Edited February 6 by Carolus 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 hours ago, Simcoe said: I don't really buy this narrative. Big surprise. The primary flaw in your response is that you could, and in fact have, say the same thing about any battle in this war so far. And yet you stride in here with absolute confidence each time as if you're bringing something new to this discussion, breathing enlightenment into an otherwise dark and ignorant place. You have been Captain Wrongway Peachfuzz since entering this discussion, periodically turning up to post a bunch of flawed argumentation only to slink off after it gets stomped. Looks like it's time to repeat history, or at least have it rhyme. 2 hours ago, Simcoe said: 1. It's close enough to the heart of Donetsk to shell/send drones from. This restricts the Russians ability to move and transport supplies up and down the line. 2. The most heavily fortified part of the entire line. You won't find such a large concentration of concrete bunkers after this until you reach the new line they're building farther to the west. 3. The Ukrainians have shelled civilian areas regularly from Avdiivka. As long as it stands the DPR and the civilian population will question Russians commitment to their cause. 1. First of all, Ukraine shelling civilian areas is Russian propaganda BS. So there's that. However, in the past Ukraine has been able to use this position to shell militarily significant targets in/around Donetsk. True. But now that it can hit targets 100s of KMs away, it doesn't need this position any longer to do whatever it was doing before. In fact, Russia has already neutralized the ability to use Avdiivka as base. It did that months ago, which means taking the rest of it is buys Russia nothing it doesn't already have from a practical military standpoint. 2. Avdiivka is *NOT* strategically important in terms of the defensive line. Russia will no more exploit taking Avdiivka than it did Bakhmut. Russia has already breached the main defenses weeks ago. 3. The Russian government does not care one iota what the civilians in the DPR territory think, any more than it cares what people in Russia think. To suggest that this battle is part of some attempt to "win hearts and minds" is crazy talk. In any event, to imply that taking this tiny scrap of land somehow makes a difference to public perception is ludicrous. 2 hours ago, Simcoe said: Finally, I have a hard time believing Russia is the only one suffering during this battle. It's pretty easy to geolocate equipment losses but what about infantry hit farther behind the line with artillery, thermobarics, glide bombs, FPV drones. This is a fire sac surrounded on three sides. This gets brought up every single time Russia does something, well, typically Russian. That somehow Russia isn't as stupid and wasteful of life as it seems, that all objective evidence we can see is trashed by that which we can't. BS. 2 hours ago, Simcoe said: Finally, I have a hard time believing Russia is the only one suffering during this battle. It's pretty easy to geolocate equipment losses but what about infantry hit farther behind the line with artillery, thermobarics, glide bombs, FPV drones. This is a fire sac surrounded on three sides. Whether it's worth it I don't know but we have to stop assuming Russians are stupid. It's counterproductive. If they are spending this much blood and treasure and we don't understand why then there must be something they know that we don't. We have spent 10s of thousands of posts digging into Russian motivation and approaches to this war since it began. Of course the Russian government believes there is a purpose in continuing this attack despite the overt and obviously disproportional losses. To summarize them: 1. It wants to wear down Ukraine and end this war on its terms. Wearing down has several components, one of which is Ukrainian and Western public perception that Ukraine is going to lose. There is some evidence this is working. You are Exhibit A. 2. A clearly stated goal from Putin is to physically retake all of Donetsk's and Luhansk's prewar political boundaries. Pointless lines on the map in all ways of meaning other than a relatively arbitrary justification for this war. 3. Time is not on Russia's side and therefore everything about this war has favored short term solutions. Retooling the Russian military to fight a fundamentally different war than it is structured to fight takes time and resources that Russia is obviously unwilling to commit, therefore it continues to fight the only way it can... using mass. It doesn't matter that it's wasteful short term, what matters is the long term. The thing is, we have no way of knowing if Russia's approach to this war is "smart" or "stupid". That might take a decade or two to determine since Putin clearly believes this war is necessary for Russia's long term ability to hold onto dreams of empire. Are Russia's actions in Avdiivka, and the war generally, persistent? Yes. Determined? Yup. Successful in taking ground? Sure. Intelligent? Not any more than an animal which shows the same attributes as it pursues its goal of getting something that it wants. We do not consider a squirrel that continually crosses a busy road to get a nut or two "intelligent", so why extend that sort of label to what Russia is doing? Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 hours ago, Carolus said: As was said in this thread before: this is one of the dumbest wars even among the list of really dumb wars in history. Extremely costly and no tangible gain - no resources, no strategic advantage, nothing. Everything Russia has is a vague manifest destiny to "make nation go big", mostly so that they can print new maps, and they are using their social acceptance of unparalleled nihilist cynicism, callousness and cruelty towards themseves and towards others to willingly go for it. Yes. A bad plan for bad reasons poorly executed by bad people doing bad things should be recognized as such. If the goal is to Make Russia Great Again, then this is a very dumb way to go about it. Putin had better alternatives, and still does, but he doesn't seem at all interested in pursuing them. That makes him "dumb". While it is important to recognize Russian stupidity and short term thinking for what it objectively is, it would be a big mistake to view Russia as insane. Its actions are logical and rational, though by our standards delusional. The way I view this is akin to someone with $500k in debt taking their last $10k in cash to Las Vegas in order to save their home from foreclosure. There is logic to it and it might, in fact, be the only option available which has any chance of success. But smart? No, I wouldn't call it that. It would be much smarter to recognize the futility of such a gamble and instead put the $10k towards a competent lawyer who can make a proper filing for bankruptcy. Putin went to Las Vegas. And despite having lost $8k of the $10k he went with, he's still going as if just one more throw of the dice or pulling of a lever will get him what he wants. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 (edited) 8 hours ago, David Jaros said: Historical lands very important if all your family got killed or familes on enemy side . Come on man wake up Current war is some more than for "hystorical lands". This is the same as ISIS or N.Korea communists invade to your country. I would be see how you solve this problem without armed resistance. "We want to live, they want to kill us. There is no much space for compromises" (C) Golda Meir Edited February 6 by Haiduk 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ales Dvorak Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 (edited) 10 hours ago, akd said: Brothers don’t invade brothers bro. I wouldn't be so sure about that, bro. Saw this in 1991. Edited February 6 by Ales Dvorak 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 (edited) From UKR TG: Fierce battle took place throughout 5-6th of Feb near Bilohorivka (south from Kreminna). Russian attack started at the 3-00 of night and finished at 2-00 of night today. After intensive artillery shellings they were contiuously attacking during the day, pausing only for regroup and waiting for next arty barrage and glide bomb strikes. Several companies and up to 20 armored vehicles were involved. Initially Russians took the initiative and push off our troops from eight positions in local industrial zone (likely water pump station SE from the village). Among Russian tanks was spotted even one T-55. At the second half of the day UKR troops regrouped and counter attacked Russians, expelling them from seven captured posititions. Russians now control only part of garages. On one of directions of this battle Russian losses are 2 tanks, 4 BMP, up to 40 infantry KIA. Our unit on this direction lost 1 KIA and 6 WIA. Edited February 6 by Haiduk 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Also from UKR TG Now we shoot 2000 shells for a day. Russians 10000. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Heavy drone for medical transport. Is this the beginning of the new air-mobile (drone mobile?) infantry? Drone Dragoons. Drongoons. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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