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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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10 minutes ago, zinz said:

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/01/26/the-situation-took-a-wrong-turn

Well there are people in Russia who don't want the war to continue. Some are even willing to sign to get another candidate on the ballot 

That is a really interesting article. I wonder if the people who get the blame for this little hiccup will fall out of a window, or be seized by patriotic fever and "volunteer" for a storm Z battalion.

It does point out that there seems to be a fair bit of underlying sentiment for peace under the frozen surface of Russian public opinion.

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one way to deal with enemy drone capabilities,,,

Drone warfare takes a deadly turn: Ukraine's HIMARS system eliminates Russian 'Judgment Day' squadron (msn.com)
 

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Ukrainian forces successfully implemented a rocket strike using HIMARS systems on a cluster of FPV (First Person View) drone pilots from the Russian "Sudoplatov Battalion". The group, identified as "Judgment Day," known for their active use of FPV drones on the front line, was undergoing an examination at a training base near the village of Pokrovka. HIMARS operators accurately targeted the group of pilots and trainers, reportedly resulting in 24 fatalities and four critically injured individuals. This level of precision was attainable due to the Russian course manager's oversight, who revealed the time and location for the "Judgment Day" team's training without verifying security. Confirmation of this situation came from a Ukrainian Telegram user, who shared footage from an observation drone, and Russian bloggers affiliated with the Russian Armed Forces.

 

The attack that neutralized the Russian pilots occurred in the Donetsk region, a total of 50 miles behind the frontline. The HIMARS system, a proficient and versatile rocket launcher mounted on an armored truck platform, executed the rocket strike. GMLRS ammunition can attack targets up to approximately 56 miles, and using the more precise ATACMS, up to 186 miles.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, sburke said:

This level of precision was attainable due to the Russian course manager's oversight, who revealed the time and location for the "Judgment Day" team's training without verifying security.

I wonder if that is actually what happened, or if the Ukrainians think he is an effective officer and sre trying to convince the FSB/GRU to take him out for them.

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Seems Ukraine is enacting its own form of "sanctions" on the Russian energy industry.  🤣

 

Ukrainian drone attack ignites fire, forces shutdown of major Russian refinery on Black Sea coast (msn.com)

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Owned by Rosneft, Russia's leading oil company, the refinery is listed among Russia's top ten and is the lone petrochemical plant on the Black Sea coast. Representatives from Rosneft chose not to comment on the incident.

The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) acknowledged the attack on the refinery on Thursday. "The SBU has been targeting deep within the Russian Federation. We aim to continue these attacks on facilities that are not only important to the Russian economy but also provide fuel for enemy forces," stated an anonymous source speaking to Reuters.

This attack counts as another in a recent series of Ukrainian-launched strikes against Russia's energy infrastructure.

On January 8, a railway track explosion in Nizhny Tagil, within the Sverdlovsk region, alarmed Russian authorities due to its proximity to Gazprom Neft corporation facilities. The following day, an unmanned drone targeted a tank within the Oriolneftproduct oil storage facility in the Oryol region.
Then, on January 18, Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) announced the conduct of a drone strike on a fuel base located in the Leningrad region, a place situated over 497 miles from the Ukrainian border.

An oil storage facility in the Bryansk region, along the border of Ukraine, suffered a drone attack on January 19. Two days later, on January 21, drones struck the terminal of Novatek, Russia's largest producer of liquefied gas, in Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea.

 

 

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1 minute ago, dan/california said:

I wonder if that is actually what happened, or if the Ukrainians think he is an effective officer and sre trying to convince the FSB/GRU to take him out for them.

what you call a win-win I think.  😆

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U.S. sanctions ruin Kremlin's grand energy project - Bloomberg (msn.com)

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Attempts by the United States to limit Russia's revenue from energy resources are starting to bear fruit. White House sanctions on the new liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in Siberia have disrupted plans to begin exports, according to Bloomberg.

As noted in the agency, the operator Novatek has been desperately trying to find buyers since sanctions were imposed in November, and the first shipment is now delayed until at least February.

Foreign partners in the Arctic LNG 2 project, including the French company TotalEnergies and Chinese oil companies, have declared force majeure circumstances for their participation. Long-time clients who signed up for deliveries now don't want them, fearing U.S. retaliation.
International sanctions against the Russian oil industry have led to the Kremlin assembling a huge shadow fleet of tankers to ensure oil supplies. Still, with gas, it's not so straightforward, according to Bloomberg.

This is a small market with a limited number of specialized vessels that are carefully monitored and controlled. Arctic LNG 2 was supposed to use ships capable of crossing ice-covered waters above the Arctic Circle.

Bloomberg notes that the project, which began producing fuel in December, will likely find a buyer for its first batch. However, securing a stable business or operating at the planned capacity may be difficult.

 

 

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Exclusive-Russia struggles to sell Pacific oil, 14 tankers stuck - sources, data (msn.com)

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More than a dozen tankers loaded with 10 million barrels of Russia's Sokol grade crude oil have been stranded off the coast of South Korea for weeks, so far unsold due to U.S. sanctions and payment issues, according to two traders and ship tracking data.

The volumes, equating to 1.3 million metric tons, represent more than a month's production of the Sakhalin-1 project, once a flagship venture of U.S. major Exxon Mobil, which exited Russia after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

Difficulties in selling Sokol pose one of the most significant challenges Moscow has faced since the West imposed sanctions and one of the most serious disruptions to Russian oil exports in two years.

Washington has said it wants sanctions to reduce revenues for President Vladimir Putin and his war machine in Ukraine but not to disrupt the flows of Russian energy to global markets.
Last year, the United States imposed sanctions on several vessels and companies involved in transporting Sokol.

As of Friday, 14 vessels with Sokol were stuck around South Korea's port of Yosu, including 11 Aframax vessels and three very large crude carriers (VLCCs), according to LSEG, Kpler data and traders.

The volume stored in tankers represent 45 days of production from Sakhalin-1, which averages output of 220,000 barrels per day (bpd).

Shipments of Sokol to the Indian Oil Corp have been delayed by payment problems, forcing India's biggest refiner to draw from its inventories and buy more oil from the Middle East.

A source close to IOC said the company did not expect to receive any Sokol shipments soon due to a disagreement over which currency would be used to pay for it.

IOC is the only state refiner that has an annual deal to buy a variety of Russian grades, including Sokol, from Russian oil major Rosneft. IOC and Rosneft did not reply to Reuters requests for comment.

 

 

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Don’t know if this was posted before. Apparently, Russia imported U.S. $1.7 Billion of computer chips in 2023. Obviously a big help for there war effort and sign that sanctions are still too porous.

https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/russia-buys-chips-from-intel-amd-and-others-to-fuel-war-efforts-the-country-bought-dollar17-billion-in-2023

p.s. I was going to Tomshardware to get more info on the new Nvidia 40XX Super GPUs, but seems you can’t get away from war news. 🙂

Edited by Sgt Joch
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38 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

Don’t know if this was posted before. Apparently, Russia imported U.S. $1.7 Billion of computer chips in 2023. Obviously a big help for there war effort and sign that sanctions are still too porous.

https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/russia-buys-chips-from-intel-amd-and-others-to-fuel-war-efforts-the-country-bought-dollar17-billion-in-2023

p.s. I was going to Tomshardware to get more info on the new Nvidia 40XX Super GPUs, but seems you can’t get away from war news. 🙂

While the article notes that authorities are trying to close down more of these re-export routes to Russia, I can’t help being slightly frustrated that it doesn’t mention the price Russia may be paying for these chips.  If the $1.7-2bn is from “Russian customs service data” then I suspect that’s actually more likely to mean that ‘Russia spent $1.7bn on chips’ than it is to mean that ‘Russia got hold of $1.7bn worth of chips’.

Tldr; how many chips did Russia get for $1.7bn?

Edited by Tux
Tried to sort font sizes but apparently can’t on mobile.
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37 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

It is a translation of a post (in the screen-shot) by Russian propagandist Anatoly Radov.

WarTranslated seems to be a Ukrainian propaganda blog.

Anyone got a link to the original post by that Russian propagandist? Because if even their propagandists have such a negative view on the war, then Russia has surely lost by now.

Which is of course what a Ukrainian propagandist would want us to believe.

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12 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

WarTranslated seems to be a Ukrainian propaganda blog.

Anyone got a link to the original post by that Russian propagandist? Because if even their propagandists have such a negative view on the war, then Russia has surely lost by now.

Which is of course what a Ukrainian propagandist would want us to believe.

Knock yourself out - https://t.me/motopatriot/18863

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