How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vet 0369]

On 1/16/2024 at 3:47 PM, A Canadian Cat - was IanL said:

If you are already operating at the air field just hit them taxiing or hell parked even.

Nah, just fly them down an intake and destroy the engines while they’re parked if they’re in the open. Shouldn’t be difficult, a running engine can suck a ground crew down an intake when it powers up to taxi, so a small drone shouldn’t have much trouble flying down an intake.

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_emigration_following_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2023/08/23/russians-have-emigrated-in-huge-numbers-since-the-war-in-ukraine

For a nation not physically being invaded…this is “not nothing”.  If mass exodus of a million people - most well educated and well off from what we can tell - is not a sign of a freakin sick duck I don’t know what is.  Now Google “immigration to Russia” and tell me what you see.

      We count Central Asiatics, Caucasians and -eventually- colonizing Chinese? This country is a giant that can be partially opened to the East if it really wants. Number of unregistred  workers alone probably can reach low milions. Mostly unskiled, naturally, but there are people in Asia for whom living in Russia is attractive.

Brain drainage is not nothing to be sure, and as I said long-term prospects for Russia are not pleasant by any stretch. But it is very long perspective.

    A propos, remember that this big wave escaping mobilization was temporary; many of those returned when specifically assured by Putin no more mobilization will be needed, and he seem to keep his promise:

https://www.ft.com/content/5e6bcce9-7bda-4b29-b1b7-f7df6e879fd9

https://www.dw.com/en/russia-why-people-are-returning-despite-the-war-in-ukraine/a-67022321

https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/11/28/alternate-reality-how-russian-society-learned-to-stop-worrying-about-war-pub-91118

Many others are still hunkering in "close neighborhood": hotels in Astana, Tbilisi, even Tashkient are literally stuffed in Russian middle class men (and now also their families) who sometimes go back, sometimes orbite close to their country doing business with it; it is among others these people that are very helpful in bypassing sanctions. It came to it that Minsk and Astana became fashionable as travel/fun/shopping destinations for posh Muscovite socialites...a thing that would be considered laughable in these circles before 2022 (imagine Xenia Sobchak advertising trips to some Minsk...a comedy material pre-war, reality now). Russians are collectively "rediscovering" its dependant countries, and oddly some people at Kremlin surely see this as positive thing, reaffirming their place in "Russian world" and by their very existence creating thousands of very real links into what Nevzorov jokingly called "Greater Russian Co-Prosperity Sphere". It is double-edged sword as well from Putin perspective.

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Just because the RA can sit in water filled holes and cover minefields does not mean they are a credible military force.  Until I see a real operational offensive from the RA that goes anywhere, I am not jumping in the “Russian military is still fine” camp.

Yup, that's why Russians are unlikely to succeed in offensive operations of old style, like ones some part of military analysts in my country still imagine as possible. You know: out of a sudden Tank Army jumps out of Kreminna forests and do a blitzkrieg over half of Ukraine. It's all grind on both sides. But yeah, we differ in a sense that I am not assured such Mexican standoff benefits Ukrainian side that much in longer term.

Important events and processes that will likely dictate course of events in this year IMHO:

-  Elections in Russia, middle of March (small chances some Brutus will appear to save the day in style)

- fate of Avdiivka salient and road to reconquering rest of Donbass- amazingly, still holding

- potentiall (well, very potentiall) Russian mobile grouping somewhere in the north- more a fantasy by now

- Russian air campaign and Ukrainian missile capabilities- more drones and missiles, but unlikely to change situation significantly in this or other way. Some more impressive fireworks in Black Sea are expected, at least in this area Ukrainains (and perfidious British ) are puting pressure very nicely.

- Ukrainian national will to fight and military needs for fresh recruits; they need to finally be resolved somehow, AFU is tired and blooded as hell. One of major fields for concern right now.

- Hipothetical spring/summer offensives by Russia. Hopefully more wasted heaps of metal and meat, but most probably also not something breaking.

-Fate of clunch in Congress and, ultimatelly, elections in USA- major field of concern for Ukraine, Russia but also world. New phase of conflict will likely be opened afterwards, with several wild cards.

Edited January 18 by Beleg85

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

A propos, remember that this big wave escaping mobilization was temporary; many of those returned when specifically assured by Putin no more mobilization will be needed, and he seem to keep his promise:

https://www.ft.com/content/5e6bcce9-7bda-4b29-b1b7-f7df6e879fd9

https://www.dw.com/en/russia-why-people-are-returning-despite-the-war-in-ukraine/a-67022321

https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/11/28/alternate-reality-how-russian-society-learned-to-stop-worrying-about-war-pub-91118

C’mon, you are being pretty selective in your analysis.  From the DW article you just posted (dated 10 Jul 23):

According to OutRush, a research team that conducts surveys among Russian emigrants, 16% of those who left the country after February 24, 2022, have since gone back to the Russian Federation. However, two-thirds said they had only returned temporarily.

So that is one third of 16% have returned to the sweet loving arms of mother Russia…but this is proof that Russians are returning in droves?

So here is my question: if Russia does not care about losing billions in sanctions, losing over 100k dead and likely another 100k crippled, a nations worth of military hardware and just about any diplomatic clout it had prior to this war….what does Russia care about?

I have heard this from some folks since the beginning of this thing and it feeds into the invincible Russia narrative.  Russia apparently does not care about anything so we can never defeat them without entirely annihilating them…that is not only disingenuous, it is frankly dumb.

Russia is a state and as such has the needs of a state.  It requires the core components of statehood primarily a continuous negotiation of a contract with its population.  It cares very much about some things, the Russian people care about some things.  They are not a monolithic blob that must be eradicated from the earth and if somehow we fail to do this we have lost the war.

All war is a multifaceted negotiation between peoples.  This war is not likely to end fast no matter what we do at this point…but that does not mean that Russia cannot collapse, military or politically.  Continuous pressure will build up over time.  You make note of Ukrainian fatigue, but again apparently Russia is inexhaustible - I disagree.  Russia is better at hiding it and suppressing symptoms but that does not mean they can endure suffering better than everyone else.

I am sorry but the Russian pundits (not you personally) have been consistently wrong in this war.  First Russia was supposed to tear through Ukraine in weeks…nope.  Then they were supposed to grind Ukraine down…nope.  Then they were supposed to do a 1942 level of mobilization…nope.  Then they were supposed to dominate the “escalation ladder”.  Then they were supposed to step out of the international sanctions box and prevail…nope.  All Russia has done is manage to hold onto a few hundred kms of blasted earth and not fall apart.  But for some reason this is worth assigning Russia supernatural abilities to rise and conquer?

 

[cesmonkey]

Pretty good interview:

Critical U.S. aid to Ukraine is still being held up in ongoing negotiations between Congress and the White House over funding for border security. Amna Nawaz spoke with former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen about what this means as Russia's war in Ukraine enters its third year.
 

[FancyCat]

Quote

Remarkable Ukrainian success over the last few months: grain sea exports are closing in on pre-war levels.  Four companies are providing insurance including at least one British one. Rates have dropped from 7% to 1.25% of cargo value

 

[Kinophile]

FramkenSAM

 

[TheVulture]

8 hours ago, dan/california said:

Much better footage of the the Bradley encounter

I'm not a big graphics nerd, but I'd love to see Bradley rounds hitting a T-90 looking like that in Combat Mission.  But it's the kind of thing big budget games have a team of programmers and artists working on for 6 months straight and still can't get it looking right. 

[Carolus]

France will provide 50 gliding bombs with guidance system to Ukraine per month. Range up to 60 km depending on height and angle it was released at, as claimed by the manufacturer.

The system is supposed to be modular and compatible with different sizes of bombs, but the most common variant is a 250kg / 500lbs bomb. Likely that this is what will be delivered, unless the Ukrainians can strap it to a bigger one.

 

Edited January 18 by Carolus
typo

[zinz]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-envoy-praises-cyprus-support-sanctions-russia-2024-01-18/

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, TheVulture said:

I'm not a big graphics nerd, but I'd love to see Bradley rounds hitting a T-90 looking like that in Combat Mission.  But it's the kind of thing big budget games have a team of programmers and artists working on for 6 months straight and still can't get it looking right. 

I agree on all counts!  The reason why it "looks right" or doesn't has to do with all the variability of each impact in relation to all the junk that's around it.  That is extremely taxing on the computing resources.  Way more than it's worth to the game.  Sadly!  Because it sure would be nice to see.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

58 minutes ago, zinz said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-envoy-praises-cyprus-support-sanctions-russia-2024-01-18/

Yup, Cyprus shutting down Russian financial access is a huge blow to them.  Legit and not so legit businesses alike.  I know way back we had to send money via Cyprus for our Russian partners we made CMA with.

While looking at Reuters, this came up.  Follow up to the violent crackdown on the protest in Bashkotostan:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/head-russian-region-denounces-traitors-after-rare-protest-2024-01-18/

When we talk about things bubbling under the surface, this is exactly what I know I'm talking about (my bold for emphasis):

"Gabbasov told Reuters in a telephone interview that the grievances of ethnic Bashkir people, who make up just over 30% of the republic's population, were driven by the policies of Russian President Vladimir Putin that had eroded the status of their own language and culture.

He said they were also angry over the environmental impact of mining operations and the disproportionate number of ethnic minority men who are being recruited to serve in Russia's war in Ukraine.

 

Compared with ethnic Russians, they send a lot more of us to the war, and the number who die is correspondingly higher," he said. "We don't want to live as part of Russia any more. Why do we need that? To die and gradually disappear? Not even gradually - with this policy it will happen very quickly."

 

People understand this even if they aren't acting.  At some point something happens and things snowball out of control, at least locally.  Let's not forget this is how Maidan and the other "Color Revolutions" started.

 

Steve

[billbindc]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I agree on all counts!  The reason why it "looks right" or doesn't has to do with all the variability of each impact in relation to all the junk that's around it.  That is extremely taxing on the computing resources.  Way more than it's worth to the game.  Sadly!  Because it sure would be nice to see.

Steve

I'm more interested in what damage is actually being done to the T-90. 

Optics?

Gun?

Ammo explosion? 

What else?

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[Beleg85]

11 hours ago, The_Capt said:

C’mon, you are being pretty selective in your analysis.  From the DW article you just posted (dated 10 Jul 23):

According to OutRush, a research team that conducts surveys among Russian emigrants, 16% of those who left the country after February 24, 2022, have since gone back to the Russian Federation. However, two-thirds said they had only returned temporarily.

So that is one third of 16% have returned to the sweet loving arms of mother Russia…but this is proof that Russians are returning in droves?

Very true; on the surface it looks not nice for Russia and partly certainly is. The catch is that from Russians perspective, SNG countries where large part of migration ended is not abroad; their status is more akin to what Portorico is for Americans. Georgia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan etc. are considered integral parts of Russian World, called blizneye zarubezye - Near Abroad; these people are hunkering there down for some time, often living off the savings (worth to check their responses- significant part live in a limbo, without plans for long-term immigration). * Others already work digitally, intentionally or not, for the benefit of their country, doing legal an illegal businesses along the borders or setting start-ups in neighbour countries. Naturally Kremlin would love to see them back home, but it is also not some catastrophy if they stay there for several years.

More important for our considerations than sheer numbers is perhaps their attitudes to Putin regime and if they bound together against it...we are talking about predominantly draft doggers, who if asked surprisingly often have nothing against the Kremlin as such, though they do complain about corrupted officials (check surveys below). Russian diaspora, including old one, seems to be overall in 50/50 in favour of it, depending on the country. If so, they are rather proudly displaying their flags, happy that Mother Russia is again opposing entire world. Note also absence of any significant emigree opposition structures (Kasparov is a joke), political parties or nascent military formations, except several hundreds of literal Neo-Nazis/anarchists from RVC, who twice raided northern borders.

No material for Bay of Pigs here or some invisible, widespread subversion by CIA, looking from that angle. If Russia should start breaking any moment, we should first see increased ferment in diaspora, who is always well informed how things stands in country of origin.

 

Also, If you visit side the the researchers who conducted this survey; note Belarus is coloured white...almost no polls there, as data are difficult to obtain despite Mińsk is known to be hosting number of Russians. This is shadowy migration of better connected draft-doggers who "suddenly" started working there, often coming from Moscow elite itself. Numbers unknown, perhaps low tens of thousands.

https://outrush.io/eng

* Also folks check last link from Carnagie, it has several polls relating attitudes to war that many of you may find interesting.

11 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So here is my question: if Russia does not care about losing billions in sanctions, losing over 100k dead and likely another 100k crippled, a nations worth of military hardware and just about any diplomatic clout it had prior to this war….what does Russia care about?

People? About their personal, small lives first and foremost. Public sphere shrinked so much in 30 years that opportunism may even run across families; note those women who willingly send their own husbands to meatgrinder for extra pay-offs. Also for anyone familiar with this culture, lack of influence of organzations like Comitee of Mothers of Soldiers or similar, that were part of wars in Afganistan and Chechnya is very telling.

Political decision-makers? Struggling with giant imperialistic ego.

 

11 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I have heard this from some folks since the beginning of this thing and it feeds into the invincible Russia narrative.  Russia apparently does not care about anything so we can never defeat them without entirely annihilating them…that is not only disingenuous, it is frankly dumb.

Russia is a state and as such has the needs of a state.  It requires the core components of statehood primarily a continuous negotiation of a contract with its population.  It cares very much about some things, the Russian people care about some things.  They are not a monolithic blob that must be eradicated from the earth and if somehow we fail to do this we have lost the war.

All true- Russia can be beaten like any other country; it was in the past. There is a question of means applied, though; I simply don't see them being here in sufficent weight to cause widespread social ferment, and we are heating this kettle for quite long time.

11 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I am sorry but the Russian pundits (not you personally) have been consistently wrong in this war.  First Russia was supposed to tear through Ukraine in weeks…nope.  Then they were supposed to grind Ukraine down…nope.  Then they were supposed to do a 1942 level of mobilization…nope.  Then they were supposed to dominate the “escalation ladder”.  Then they were supposed to step out of the international sanctions box and prevail…nope.  All Russia has done is manage to hold onto a few hundred kms of blasted earth and not fall apart.  But for some reason this is worth assigning Russia supernatural abilities to rise and conquer?

There is nothing supernatural here- Ukraine is fighting largest country on planet, member of Security Council and former superpower, determined in its imperialistic urge to finish this thing or at least leave with something valuable (be it even sole destruction of Ukraine). It's uneven fight from day one, even with Western help.

Let's also not jump into hyperbolies, usually they are not helpfull...note that we also (me including) planned here campaigns of AFU in Crimea, expected Russian civilian air fleet falling from the skies, Russia bankcupcy long time ago, some even predicted "nations" breaking free from Kremlin. Nothing of this sort happened either. Everybody is wrong from time to time, even best specialists in their fields.

Edited January 18 by Beleg85

[billbindc]

6 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Very true; on the surface it looks not nice for Russia and partly certainly is. The catch is that from Russians perspective, SNG countries where large part of migration ended is not abroad; their status is more akin to what Portorico is for Americans. Georgia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan etc. are considered integral parts of Russian World, called blizneye zarubezye - Near Abroad; these people are hunkering there down for some time, often living off the savings (worth to check their responses- significant part live in a limbo, without plans for long-term immigration). * Others already work digitally, intentionally or not, for the benefit of their country, doing legal an illegal businesses along the borders or setting start-ups in neighbour countries. Naturally Kremlin would love to see them back home, but it is also not some catastrophy if they stay there for several years.

More important for our considerations than sheer numbers is perhaps their attitudes to Putin regime and if they bound together against it...we are talking about predominantly draft doggers, who if asked surprisingly often have nothing against the Kremlin as such, though they do complain about corrupted officials (check surveys below). Russian diaspora, including old one, seems to be overall in 50/50 in favour of it, depending on the country. If so, they are rather proudly displaying their flags, happy that Mother Russia is again opposing entire world. Note also absence of any significant emigree opposition structures (Kasparov is a joke), political parties or nascent military formations, except several hundreds of literal Neo-Nazis/anarchists from RVC, who twice raided northern borders.

No material for Bay of Pigs here or some invisible, widespread subversion by CIA, looking from that angle.

 

Also, If you visit side the the researchers who conducted this survey; note Belarus is coloured white...almost no polls there, as data are difficult to obtain despite Mińsk is known to be hosting number of Russians. This is shadowy migration of better connected draft-doggers who "suddenly" started working there, often coming from Moscow elite itself. Numbers unknown, perhaps low tens of thousands.

https://outrush.io/eng

* Also folks check last link from Carnagie, it has several polls relating attitudes to war that many of you may find interesting.

People? About their personal, small lives first and foremost. Public sphere shrinked so much in 30 years that opportunism may even run across families; note those women who willingly send their own husbands to meatgrinder for extra pay-offs. Also for anyone familiar with this culture, lack of influence of organzations like Comitee of Mothers of Soldiers or similar, that were part of wars in Afganistan and Chechnya is very telling.

Political decision-makers? Struggling with giant imeprialistic ego.

 

All true- Russia can be beaten like any other country; it was in the past. There is a question of means applied, though; I simply don't see them being here in sufficent weight to cause widespread social ferment, and we are simmering this kettle for quite long time.

There is nothing supernatural here- Ukraine is fighting largest country on planet, member of Security Council and former superpower, determined in its imperialistic urge to finish this thing or at least leave with something valuable (be it even sole destruction of Ukraine). It's uneven fight from day one, even with Western help.

Let's also not jump into hyperbolies, usually they are not helpfull...note that we also (me including) planned here campaigns of AFU in Crimea, expected Russian civilian air fleet falling from the skies, Russia bankcupcy long time ago, some even predicted "nations" breaking free from Kremlin. Nothing of this sort happened either. Everybody is wrong from time to time, even best specialists in their fields.

Bottom line: 

Sanctions, attrition, demographic issues, labor short falls and the rest all are working as expected to damage Russian power. The only difference is the expectation in timeline. It's happening slower than we expected...just as the collapse in Russian offensive power happened much faster than we expected. 

We thought we had (Russian) Afghanistan II, then it turned for a while into Braveheart and now it's WWI circa 1916. This too shall pass.  

[A Canadian Cat]

20 hours ago, Haiduk said:

UKR anti-drone weapon

Cool. Back in 2016 I heard about this program "Dutch police fight drones with eagles" (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37342695)

It got cancelled in 2017 because training the birds proved harder than expected "Dutch police will stop using drone-hunting eagles since they weren't doing what they're told" (https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/12/16767000/police-netherlands-eagles-rogue-drones)

Perhaps every little bit helps. I wish them luck.

[Seedorf81]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

I'm more interested in what damage is actually being done to the T-90. 

Optics?

Gun?

Ammo explosion? 

What else?

 

Gunner, perhaps. With such a pounding the inside of the tank must be a terrible place. And the turret would be turning this weird continious way if that gunner was wounded or killed, and slumped over on the turretcontroller.

Edited January 18 by Seedorf81

[Seedorf81]

18 minutes ago, A Canadian Cat - was IanL said:

Cool. Back in 2016 I heard about this program "Dutch police fight drones with eagles" (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37342695)

It got cancelled in 2017 because training the birds proved harder than expected "Dutch police will stop using drone-hunting eagles since they weren't doing what they're told" (https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/12/16767000/police-netherlands-eagles-rogue-drones)

Perhaps every little bit helps. I wish them luck.

I spent some time on the Final Blitzkrieg pre-order page and ran out of likes, so here a:

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/17/opinion/north-korea-war.html

The globe is already pockmarked with crises, and here may be another: North Korea is acting in highly unusual ways, leading some veteran analysts to fear it is preparing a surprise attack on South Korea and perhaps on Japan and Guam as well.

 

Kristof is pretty much an out and out peacenik. At the very least his attitude is extremely dovish, he just issued what amounts to a hair on fire war warning about North Korea doing something absolutely crazy. Anybody else seeing weirder  noises than usual from the hermit kingdom?

[billbindc]

Among big things that matter:

 

[Ales Dvorak]

17 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

I did always find it kinda peculiar how a country like Slovenia which literally borders Italy and Croatia which practically borders Italy are sometimes called eastern Europe.

Heck, Yugoslavia was not even in the Warsaw Pact.

The line has to start somewhere.

Yugoslavija in Warsaw Pact? No need to... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-Aligned_Movement

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

There is nothing supernatural here- Ukraine is fighting largest country on planet, member of Security Council and former superpower, determined in its imperialistic urge to finish this thing or at least leave with something valuable (be it even sole destruction of Ukraine). It's uneven fight from day one, even with Western help.

Let's also not jump into hyperbolies, usually they are not helpfull...note that we also (me including) planned here campaigns of AFU in Crimea, expected Russian civilian air fleet falling from the skies, Russia bankcupcy long time ago, some even predicted "nations" breaking free from Kremlin. Nothing of this sort happened either. Everybody is wrong from time to time, even best specialists in their fields.

First off Russia is the largest nation by landmass...which is actually a weakness when talking defence and security.  It has a population of roughly 170 million and a GDP less than Canada's (a nation of 40m):

https://www.statista.com/statistics/263772/gross-domestic-product-gdp-in-russia/

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=CA

It had the second (or really third) most powerful military on earth until it shattered its front end over the last two years.  it picked a proxy war...or stumbled into one, with the entire western world - a bloc if one goes by NATO as a framework of a combined GDP of over 10 times it own and can bury it in defence spending (https://www.visualcapitalist.com/this-is-how-much-nato-countries-spend-on-defense/)  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_Russia#:~:text=Russia's official 2022 military budget,military budget announced in 2021.)

So you are correct...this was not a fair fight from the start.  The fact that Russia is still standing is frankly baffling but here we are.  There is no hyperbole here - those pundit lines have been repeated here pretty much since the beginning.

As to internal foment...well we will just have to see.  Very often with these things pressure builds until a breaking point.  Trying to predict that point is extremely hard - these are adaptive non-linear systems.  Arab Spring back in '14 built for years until a fruit seller in Tunisia did something drastic.  Longer term pressures will work to continue to isolate (see Cyprus) and constrain Russia in this fight.  Western resolve is on us, we will need to reckon with that one.  Russia is not some boggyman hiding under the bed.  It is a third rate power (now) barely holding things together.  It is stuck on a train with no way off.  Putin cannot admit defeat and leave.  He cannot win by staying - Ukraine can.  

[photon]

One thing I've been thinking about is whether the transition to defensive primacy is uniform across scales. We've had wars where tactical, operational, and strategic primacy was divided. Here I'm wading beyond what I've read deeply about, so please correct me where I miss the mark.

So in the civil war, you had defensive primacy at the tactical level, but offensive primacy at the operational and strategic. Armies would maneuver operationally to force their adversary to attack them in a time and place where they could defend tactically and break the adversary (Chancellorsville, Gettysburg).

In WW1, you had attritional offensive primacy at the tactical level, but defensive primacy at the operational level: no one could translate tactical success into a breakthrough. I'm not sure about strategic primacy, but it seems to have been defensive?

In WW2 European warfare you had tactical offensive primacy (attackers could breach positions), operational offensive primacy (mass allowed breakouts), and strategic offensive primacy (attackers could take an hold strategic objectives) for most of the war in most theatres.

In WW2 Carrier warfare (1940-1943) you had tactical offensive primacy (deck strikes were essentially unstoppable), operational defensive primacy (carriers could raid, but not secure land based objectives), and strategic defensive primacy? The development of 3rd/5th Fleet in 1944 essentially flipped the first two. The advent of CICs and better flight detection meant that a carrier task force could interdict a strike group, and the development of the big blue blanket meant that a carrier task force could roll up on an island and secure it.

So we're headed to an era of what appears to be tactical defensive primacy and operational defensive primacy, and strategic (?) defensive primacy. The advent of an illuminated battlefield (like the radar based CIC) ensures tactical defensive primacy. Precision fires ensure operational defensive primacy. There's been talk here about something like the big blue blanket making operational offensive primacy possible, but that seems a year or two out.

Maybe the place for innovation now is at the strategic level. And at that level cumulative rather than sequential effects produce the most decision. So what can the west do to maximize the strategic options Ukraine has and minimize those of Russia? That seems like the question for the next year.

[billbindc]

23 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

Kristof is pretty much an out and out peacenik. At the very least his attitude is extremely dovish, he just issued what amounts to a hair on fire war warning about North Korea doing something absolutely crazy. Anybody else seeing weirder  noises than usual from the hermit kingdom?

The folks he quotes are pretty good and yes, there's quite a bit of talk below the table. But in the end, it all comes down to reading the mind of one man for one fact: does Kim want to commit suicide or not? There's no strategic, military or economic logic to starting to toss nukes while talking about it might be just the sort of thing an attention desperate tinpot Stalin-let might do. It's got to be galling that Ukraine/Russia is soaking up everyone's bandwidth, that Kim's supply of aid to Russia barely elicited a shrug and that even in NE Asia the real money is being spent on a the potential PRC/Taiwan conflict. 

In short, I'll believe it when I see it, I will and won't be surprised and I don't think anyone else has much more insight than I do. 

[Harmon Rabb]

With English subtitles.

German journalists interview an AFU Leopard 2 crew. They said they were hit with a 120 mm shell but survived because of the tank, which will be repaired in Lithuania.

 

Edited January 18 by Harmon Rabb