How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

43 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

On serious note, this clip from droning of Russians is nothing particular, except apparent weight of explosive material used.

Just TNT charges mounted instead PG-7, probably guys traded TNT with sappers for some chevrons of dead orcs - very vlauable "currency" on frontline along with captured ammunition and technic. 

Some other example of "drone terror" - Russians in partially captured Stepove can't gain foothold to etsblish positions so they forced to hide in cellars of completely destroyed houses. UKR drone operators of 47th mech.brigade just hit any hole where a movement was spotted

At 1:39 drone operator shows joky chevrone on Russian soldier, which usually worn Wagners. Thus, 47th brigade claims in Stepove now remains of Wagners are present, gathered in some new PMC under MoD command.

 

 

Edited January 15 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

UKR tank after FPV drone hit. Looks like ERA has worked properly and tank got minimal damage

 

Edited January 15 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2024/01/14/mig-31s-cripple-ukrainian-production-of-155mm-and-152mm-shells/

Feels like a bull**** piece placed by useful idiots, eg

Quote

Despite Ukrainian claims that American Patriot missile systems have successfully intercepted a significant number of missiles, these assertions have been met with skepticism by experts due to the shortcomings of the Patriot missiles and the superior technology present in the Kinzhal missiles. 

Historically, Patriot missile systems have often failed to effectively counter even basic ballistic missile attacks. This fact is evident in their performance during the Gulf War and the 2017 Yemeni missile strike on Saudi Arabia. Initially, it was widely believed that Patriot missiles had effectively neutralized substantial attacks during these incidents. However, subsequent investigations revealed utter system failure, even though the missile attacks these systems faced were not notably advanced.

"utter system failure"! 

Goodness gracious. Very exciting. 

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Well that makes sense.  They probably know where to hit on the T72 as well.  One thing is definitely becoming clear - tanks and AFVs were never designed for this type of environment.  An opponent is not supposed to be able to pick which square inch to hit.  

Many years ago I worked on a space mission concept that was doing super high precision astrometry, that is, measurement of precisely where all the stars in the sky are and where they're going (because they're moving and we can measure sensitively enough to care).  It was science driven, but the Navy was working on a competing concept and I had to think for a while about why.  But it was a little after Gulf War 1, with all the precision bombing, and when I did the math on mapping the precision back to a sphere the size of the earth, it amounted to being able to aim not at a door (as they did in GW1, mostly with laser target painting), but at the doorknob using mapping and nav without needing a SOF guy with a laser.  And that was decades ago.

ISR+massed precision == just don't even try it

 

On 1/13/2024 at 1:48 PM, kimbosbread said:

We have a common rail system, thankfully!

Protocol is un-necessary for MVP: Just have the drone guy tell you the GPS coordinates, and plug those into your universal firing computer. Drone-controlled firing and bracketing is version 2.

I like the idea of the cell-phone that attaches to the rail. User interface is easy:

• Enter GPS coordinates of weapons system, or use onboard GPS
• Enter type of weapons system
• Enter target GPS coordinates
• Aim weapons system, and the phone display shows you crosshair representing aim point of weapons system, and then another crosshair representing aim point to hit target. Line them up, phone makes a sound or flashes and you pull the trigger.

EDIT: So here’s the challenge: How do I zero our cell-phone firing computer? Do I need to have a known zero? Can I just estimate things based on accelerometers and a laser level and say “meh good enough” and hit stuff 5km away?

EDIT2: Is this even worth the effort of developing and building, when I could just have more kamikaze drones?

All of this is within the capability of existing technology.  Aircraft systems have been doing essentially this for kind of a long time (see above) with less compact equipment.  You can put a little LIDAR rangefinder on a rifle or a drone and couple it to precision GPS and compass.  The thing that makes your phone big is the need for you to see it and manipulate things on it with your fat fingers.  The size limiter on your proposal is probably the GPS antenna (small) and the laser optics (small).  It probably all exists in prototype somewhere, maybe linked to a VR goggle set that's linked to a local server so a whole squad or platoon can spread out and have borg spotting that's delivered to each other and the rear echelon with the action-at-a-long-distance stuff.

(ETA: you're not just coupling the GPS+compass to other hardware, but also to a detailed GIS model of the area that's enabled by the massive ISR cloud watching the whole thing)

Edited January 15 by chrisl

[danfrodo]

50 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Many years ago I worked on a space mission concept that was doing super high precision astrometry, that is, measurement of precisely where all the stars in the sky are and where they're going (because they're moving and we can measure sensitively enough to care).  It was science driven, but the Navy was working on a competing concept and I had to think for a while about why.  But it was a little after Gulf War 1, with all the precision bombing, and when I did the math on mapping the precision back to a sphere the size of the earth, it amounted to being able to aim not at a door (as they did in GW1, mostly with laser target painting), but at the doorknob using mapping and nav without needing a SOF guy with a laser.  And that was decades ago.

ISR+massed precision == just don't even try it

 

All of this is within the capability of existing technology.  Aircraft systems have been doing essentially this for kind of a long time (see above) with less compact equipment.  You can put a little LIDAR rangefinder on a rifle or a drone and couple it to precision GPS and compass.  The thing that makes your phone big is the need for you to see it and manipulate things on it with your fat fingers.  The size limiter on your proposal is probably the GPS antenna (small) and the laser optics (small).  It probably all exists in prototype somewhere, maybe linked to a VR goggle set that's linked to a local server so a whole squad or platoon can spread out and have borg spotting that's delivered to each other and the rear echelon with the action-at-a-long-distance stuff.

(ETA: you're not just coupling the GPS+compass to other hardware, but also to a detailed GIS model of the area that's enabled by the massive ISR cloud watching the whole thing)

ChrisL is kind of a badass.  He actually knows things.

[Joe982]

8 hours ago, The_Capt said:

This plus this

Sweet Jebus.  Looks like they are targeting the engine.  

The explosions are obviously the ammunition inside the tank. I have seen videos of Russian tank design and yet I cannot see how the round from the drone can penetrate the armour.

[chrisl]

36 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

ChrisL is kind of a badass.  He actually knows things.

As far as I know, neither of those space missions ever flew, but the same capability exists now by other means.

And for the second, I suspect kids in a college robotics class could do a demo using cheap hardware and open source software.  It's sort of a basic surveying thing.  Electronics have gotten small, cheap, and available.

[chrisl]

4 minutes ago, Joe982 said:

The explosions are obviously the ammunition inside the tank. I have seen videos of Russian tank design and yet I cannot see how the round from the drone can penetrate the armour.

Shaped charges and thin top armor?

(eta: randomly googled site says hull roof armor is 20-30 mm on a T-80 BVM.  Small shaped charge will do fine)

 

Edited January 15 by chrisl

[kimbosbread]

2 minutes ago, chrisl said:

And for the second, I suspect kids in a college robotics class could do a demo using cheap hardware and open source software.  It's sort of a basic surveying thing.  Electronics have gotten small, cheap, and available.

That’s the frustrating thing about a lot of the tech that we have discussed: You don’t even need a lab; between a buddy and me we have enough electronics test equipment and spare ics and breadboards to put a demo together.

I’m curious about using one of the 9dof sensors (used in VR goggles, watches, phones) and how you’d zero it for whatever weapon you attach it to. It really does seem like a long weekend project to get an MVP working.

[chrisl]

9 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

That’s the frustrating thing about a lot of the tech that we have discussed: You don’t even need a lab; between a buddy and me we have enough electronics test equipment and spare ics and breadboards to put a demo together.

I’m curious about using one of the 9dof sensors (used in VR goggles, watches, phones) and how you’d zero it for whatever weapon you attach it to. It really does seem like a long weekend project to get an MVP working.

x,y,z,t and time derivatives of position you get for free from GPS.  I think all you need from there is compass (needs to be calibrated periodically like when you use your phone for a compass) and level (needs to be calibrated periodically like using your phone as a level).  Tie that to a GIS model (and maybe have people set zeros at known physical locations on the map) and I think you have everything you need.  If you're networked and have some base stations with known precise locations you can use MLAT to improve your calibration dynamically.

[The_Capt]

52 minutes ago, Joe982 said:

The explosions are obviously the ammunition inside the tank. I have seen videos of Russian tank design and yet I cannot see how the round from the drone can penetrate the armour.

Gotta be a nasty shaped charge warhead.  Of course we will try and layer tanks in bubble wrap now by adding tons of deck and top armour.  And then the little bastard FPV will hit the tracks….or the gun barrel.

[Fenris]

Is there anything they can't do?

 

[chrisl]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Gotta be a nasty shaped charge warhead.  Of course we will try and layer tanks in bubble wrap now by adding tons of deck and top armour.  And then the little bastard FPV will hit the tracks….or the gun barrel.

Or dive underneath with the shaped charge pointing up.

[Kinophile]

4 hours ago, Fenris said:

Is there anything they can't do?

 

I wonder if its not possible to stage several drones at the end of a runway and simply fly them directly at whatever starts to take off, like mechanical bird strikes.

[chrisl]

5 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

I wonder if its not possible to stage several drones at the end of a runway and simply fly them directly at whatever starts to take off, like mechanical bird strikes.

You probably want them along the sides somewhere around the 2/3 point where jets start to get off the ground.  

But yes.  And they wouldn't consume much power while they're waiting for a victim aircraft.

[Battlefront.com]

The air war is seemingly entering a new phase now.  Ukraine has been chipping away at Russia's air defenses since this war started, racking up an impressive amount of (effectively) irreplaceable defense systems.  While Russia is still apparently able to cover the Ukraine theater, I would wager it isn't as effective as it once was.  And with specific Ukrainian attention in a specific area it can be effectively neutralized long enough to strike something at greater odds of success.

Questions that arise over the past few days:

1. Has Russia been obligated to move it's usually rearward systems closer to the front to compensate for losses?
2. Are Russian aircraft far behind the front at increased risk of being hit by something that Russian air defenses aren't able to defeat, or is it because air defenses are under stress that such attacks are now possible?
3. Is whatever Ukraine just used against 2-3 aircraft something that can be done on a regular basis, or was this like the possible Hrim-2 attack in that we won't see another one like it for some time?
4. Has anybody seen ANYTHING discussing Zelensky's seemingly new claim last week of a large number of Russian helicopters destroyed, or was it some sort of misquote of him talking about helicopters downed since the beginning of the war?

All kinds of things to wonder about

Steve

[Chibot Mk IX]

7 hours ago, chrisl said:

Many years ago I worked on a space mission concept that was doing super high precision astrometry, that is, measurement of precisely where all the stars in the sky are and where they're going (because they're moving and we can measure sensitively enough to care).  It was science driven, but the Navy was working on a competing concept and I had to think for a while about why.  But it was a little after Gulf War 1, with all the precision bombing, and when I did the math on mapping the precision back to a sphere the size of the earth, it amounted to being able to aim not at a door (as they did in GW1, mostly with laser target painting), but at the doorknob using mapping and nav without needing a SOF guy with a laser.  And that was decades ago.

ISR+massed precision == just don't even try it

Are they looking for developing a SLBM armed with Conventional Warheads ?  

[billbindc]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The air war is seemingly entering a new phase now.  Ukraine has been chipping away at Russia's air defenses since this war started, racking up an impressive amount of (effectively) irreplaceable defense systems.  While Russia is still apparently able to cover the Ukraine theater, I would wager it isn't as effective as it once was.  And with specific Ukrainian attention in a specific area it can be effectively neutralized long enough to strike something at greater odds of success.

Questions that arise over the past few days:

1. Has Russia been obligated to move it's usually rearward systems closer to the front to compensate for losses?
2. Are Russian aircraft far behind the front at increased risk of being hit by something that Russian air defenses aren't able to defeat, or is it because air defenses are under stress that such attacks are now possible?
3. Is whatever Ukraine just used against 2-3 aircraft something that can be done on a regular basis, or was this like the possible Hrim-2 attack in that we won't see another one like it for some time?
4. Has anybody seen ANYTHING discussing Zelensky's seemingly new claim last week of a large number of Russian helicopters destroyed, or was it some sort of misquote of him talking about helicopters downed since the beginning of the war?

All kinds of things to wonder about

Steve

Just looking at live flight radar it looks like Russian commercial air which used to run up the line of the Volga is now flying well east of it until it they get north of Saratov. Could be coincidence but it's a striking difference right now from the norm. 

[dan/california]

21 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Just looking at live flight radar it looks like Russian commercial air which used to run up the line of the Volga is now flying well east of it until it they get north of Saratov. Could be coincidence but it's a striking difference right now from the norm. 

I wonder if they are more scared of Ukraines air defenses, or their own...

[danfrodo]

25 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The air war is seemingly entering a new phase now.  Ukraine has been chipping away at Russia's air defenses since this war started, racking up an impressive amount of (effectively) irreplaceable defense systems.  While Russia is still apparently able to cover the Ukraine theater, I would wager it isn't as effective as it once was.  And with specific Ukrainian attention in a specific area it can be effectively neutralized long enough to strike something at greater odds of success.

Questions that arise over the past few days:

1. Has Russia been obligated to move it's usually rearward systems closer to the front to compensate for losses?
2. Are Russian aircraft far behind the front at increased risk of being hit by something that Russian air defenses aren't able to defeat, or is it because air defenses are under stress that such attacks are now possible?
3. Is whatever Ukraine just used against 2-3 aircraft something that can be done on a regular basis, or was this like the possible Hrim-2 attack in that we won't see another one like it for some time?
4. Has anybody seen ANYTHING discussing Zelensky's seemingly new claim last week of a large number of Russian helicopters destroyed, or was it some sort of misquote of him talking about helicopters downed since the beginning of the war?

All kinds of things to wonder about

Steve

I've been wondering just how Putin sees things.  He seems quite confident he can hold the territory.  He's just fine burning up whatever poor saps he can conscript trying to grab relatively insignificant land.  Perhaps he's just trying to wear down UKR units and doesn't care the cost, as he's got more coming and is confident his mines & FBVs & artillery are more than enough to hold UKR at bay.  Seems he feels time is on his side?  We may not agree, but it sure seems he feels that way as he runs a war of attrition, slowly trying to wear down UKR will.  And of course buying off as many foreign politicians as possible through third party cut outs -- yes, I am looking at you, Mike Johnson, MTG, et al.

But the degradation of RU AD, survelliance & airpower makes me wonder if there's something that could help UKR on the ground?  Will UKR start having the ability to deliver huge glide bombs on RU assets unscathed through depleted RU AD?  

[kimbosbread]

One theory goes that UA attrition of RU air defenses over the last 6 months has forced RU to move more expensive assets (AWACS) closer to the front to help with radar coverage.

[dan/california]

27 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

One theory goes that UA attrition of RU air defenses over the last 6 months has forced RU to move more expensive assets (AWACS) closer to the front to help with radar coverage.

And if that is true and now they are down one of ~six functional AWACS, and an IL22 besides, the Russian choices start to get really unpleasant.

[Pete Wenman]

Tom Cooper talking about what he knows best - aviation .

An interesting timeline and suggestion as to what happened to the A-50U and  Il-22M

https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-16-january-2024-scratch

P

[cesmonkey]

A few days old, but somewhat interesting:

 

[Haiduk]

21 hours ago, Joe982 said:

I have seen videos of Russian tank design and yet I cannot see how the round from the drone can penetrate the armour.

Usually drones carry PG-7 HEAT ammo. It's enough to penetrate armor from the back, top or side, unprotected by ERA 

It's claimed we designed special EFP ammunition for drones - EFP-S. It will allow to to hit successfully enemy vehicles, protected by slat armor. But unknown where this payload will appear on frontline

Edited January 16 by Haiduk