How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, omae2 said:

The more i read you the more i feel that you think that this conflict will not move anywhere. Now i might be wrong but this is why i ask your opinion about two things:

1.: What do you think is the short, mid and long term plan of the USA in this conflict? I was sure in the first couple of months that the NATO will use this opportunity to bleed the russians dry. But they seems to be hesitant, and its seems that we are in a position where Ukraine did pay with blood just as russia but the later have more of it so in the end it will not matter.

2.: If the conflict will freeze or a peace deal will be signed that let russia keep the occupied territories what do you think will be the short, mid and long term effect of that in eastern Europe?

Jake Sullivan, is that you?

(jk, welcome to the thread)

[Carolus]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Reportedly Russian local authorities in Belgorod started to fortify...bus stops. So war is coming to them, albeit in rather odd form.

 

Saw this in Ukraine too. Bus stops is where people gather, and those that don't make it in time to reach a proper air shelter will be happy to have some layer of concrete when a drone or missile hits a nearby building and showers the street in glass.

[dan/california]

Now with english subtitles.

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, omae2 said:

The more i read you the more i feel that you think that this conflict will not move anywhere. Now i might be wrong but this is why i ask your opinion about two things:

1.: What do you think is the short, mid and long term plan of the USA in this conflict? I was sure in the first couple of months that the NATO will use this opportunity to bleed the russians dry. But they seems to be hesitant, and its seems that we are in a position where Ukraine did pay with blood just as russia but the later have more of it so in the end it will not matter.

2.: If the conflict will freeze or a peace deal will be signed that let russia keep the occupied territories what do you think will be the short, mid and long term effect of that in eastern Europe?

Well first I am not sure we are entirely done with movement yet.  I think the UA will have to try somethings that no one has ever tried before, but the technology and resources are there.  The questions is: will it work?  Essentially there are two operational options left here - or at least two good ones.  1) conduct corrosive warfare at a rate where Russian defence fails due to systemic collapses, or 2) conduct a new form of firepower warfare that would see thousands of unmanned systems essentially scrub enough land and sky to allow for traditional breaching and maneuver.    Neither of those two options has proven easy to pull off and have no guarantees they can work.

I am not entirely sure what the long game is for then US, everyone is at a “wait and see” footing.  I think the elections in Nov ‘24 are definitely going to have an impact on mid and long term.  The standard game plan is to shift from stability operations to reconstruction.  So, as we have discussed building a Ukrainian mil industry that can be self-sustaining.  Basically the long game, if the UA cannot produce military results, will head towards a Korean Peninsula solution.  A ceasefire will work but the west has to be ready to arm the hell out of Ukraine during it to ensure Russia cannot achieve overmatch.

Short term is really about sustaining Ukrainian ability to hold what they have, cost the Russians dearly for every inch and try and support some sort of game changing approach to try and open this thing up again.  Russia really does not have “more blood”.  It is a brittle autocracy and if Putin mobilized too far it would blow up in his face - we know this and why he has not.  Further, Russia can only create effective defensive capability right now.  Until they prove otherwise I do not see Russia able to make great offensive gains either.

I seriously doubt there will be a peace deal that essentially cedes the occupied territories to Russia.  Nor is Russian normalization in the cards anytime soon.  I am not sure Trump could somehow make that happen as Europe and the rest of the west would reject any rapprochement.  So a frozen conflict.  Well Russia will likely continue to play silly buggers and try things, particularly on the subversive front but those sanctions will start to do real damage over time.

I think Eastern Europe may wind up being more secure after this war because Russia is broken for military offensives for some time and restrictions are on them to try and rebuild.  We will spend billions on NATO to make member states airtight.  The only wild card is the US and some other far right reflexes in some states.  However, the single biggest risk is the west losing interest and not following through with reconstruction and hard collective defence guarantees.  If we fail to follow through or fracture then Russia could very well come out ahead.

[dan/california]

Ok I went deep down the internet rabbit hole.... Can someone explain to me why we re not ALREADY seeing engines like these powering drones, FPV and otherwise? I know they are noisy but if could launch from five times further back that seems like a decent trade.

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Short term is really about sustaining Ukrainian ability to hold what they have, cost the Russians dearly for every inch and try and support some sort of game changing approach to try and open this thing up again.  Russia really does not have “more blood”.  It is a brittle autocracy and if Putin mobilized too far it would blow up in his face - we know this and why he has not.  Further, Russia can only create effective defensive capability right now.  Until they prove otherwise I do not see Russia able to make great offensive gains either.

What Ukraine needs is not just the ability to hold, but the ability to limit their casualties at the same time they make the Russians bleed more. Insofar as i can guess, and a guess is all it is, Russia loses 500-1000 casualties a day, and Ukraine loses somewhere between 100 and 300. If Russian casualties double, and Ukraine's went down by half it would really affect the Russians over time, even if the lines don't move an inch. Ukraine just needs to be able to throw more hurt at the Russians way while reducing the number of people it has in the forward positions that take so many of the casualties. Steve said very early in this war that all Ukraine had to do was keep killing Russians, that is still true, it just turns out that the volume required is a lot higher than we thought.

[Carolus]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

Ok I went deep down the internet rabbit hole.... Can someone explain to me why we re not ALREADY seeing engines like these powering drones, FPV and otherwise? I know they are noisy but if could launch from five times further back that seems like a decent trade.

Well, Shaheds are that and we are seeing plenty of those.

Most of the rotary drones are commercial civilian designs and electric engines are simpler to build and  control. Speed can be adjusted with electronics and electric engines are very responsive. Very easy to have 4 engines for each rotor and adjust speed for each of them directly, no small gears or axles necessary which either transmit the torque and speed from a central engine to the rotors or having 4, 6 or 8 individually tiny burner engines with speed control and fuel tubes. It's just way more expensive and complex than simple electric engines which only need 2 wires coming from a PCB.

Edited January 12 by Carolus
mistakes

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Carolus said:

Well, Shaheds are that and we are seeing plenty of those.

Most of the rotary drones are commercial civilian designs and electric engines are simpler to build and  control. Speed can be adjusted with electronics and electric engines are very responsive. Very easy to have 4 engines for each rotor and adjust speed for each of them directly, no small gears or axles necessary which either transmit the torque and speed from a central engine to the rotors or having 4, 6 or 8 individually tiny burner engines with speed control and fuel tubes. It's just way more expensive and complex than simple electric engines which only need 2 wires coming from a PCB.

I was think to just hook it up to a little tiny generator, and then a small battery or a big capacitor so everything works just like everybody is used to, except for much longer, and with more payload for the splody bits.

https://www.amazon.com/RIYIN-Turbine-Generator-Supply-3500rpm/dp/B01MR8SO1N/ref=sr_1_12_sspa?crid=24W51NJDE2Z7L&keywords=Mico%2Bgenerator&qid=1705040197&s=industrial&sprefix=mico%2Bgenerator%2Cindustrial%2C127&sr=1-12-spons&sp_csd=d2lkZ2V0TmFtZT1zcF9tdGY&th=1

This one is not quite right, but but it wouldn't be hard to spec one out. 

[Carolus]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

I was think to just hook it up to a little tiny generator, and then a small battery or a big capacitor so everything works just like everybody is used to, except for much longer, and with more payload for the splody bits.

https://www.amazon.com/RIYIN-Turbine-Generator-Supply-3500rpm/dp/B01MR8SO1N/ref=sr_1_12_sspa?crid=24W51NJDE2Z7L&keywords=Mico%2Bgenerator&qid=1705040197&s=industrial&sprefix=mico%2Bgenerator%2Cindustrial%2C127&sr=1-12-spons&sp_csd=d2lkZ2V0TmFtZT1zcF9tdGY&th=1

This one is not quite right, but but it wouldn't be hard to spec one out. 

Oh, I see. Fuel -> Engine -> Generator -> energy storage + electric engines, but the high energy density in chemical fuel makes up for the added weight.

Mhm. Might become an eventual concept, but it also makes the whole contraption larger. Hard to say if the working point of that + added complexity will find its application niche within the next years.

Because so far, the one way trip long range drones like Lancet seem to be cheap enough without being retrievable after a mission.

Edited January 12 by Carolus

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Carolus said:

Oh, I see. Fuel -> Engine -> Generator -> energy storage + electric engines, but the high energy density in chemical fuel makes up for the added weight.

Mhm. Might become an eventual concept, but it also makes the whole contraption larger. Hard to say if the working point of that + added complexity will find its application niche within the next years.

 

Yes, exactly! The whole idea might work better on a fixed wing drone that is a little bigger than the standard FPV package. There would more power for better cameras and so on. A the end of the day more stored energy ought to make a more useful piece of kit. But I may be on the wrong side of the cost benefit curve. 

[sburke]

'Sabotage' as raging inferno rips through plant producing armour for Putin's troops (msn.com)

A massive fire near Moscow has destroyed a plant that supplies body armour for Vladimir Putin’s troops.

Video footage shows flames engulfing the plant on Entuziastov Avenue, Obukhovo, in the Moscow region this morning, and no casualties have been reported.

Law enforcement in Russia is investigating whether the inferno was caused by an act of sabotage or arson.

The fire has destroyed 86,000 feet of a warehouse and a workshop.

Workers were evacuated from the plant just as it took hold and more than 100 firefighters tried to save the key production line.

It has been sanctioned by Ukraine for its production of polymer products as well as body armour, helmets, protective shoes and other items.

[Carolus]

UK announced military aid of £2.5bn over the course of 2024.

The UK has been important to urge on other larger European countries with their example, specifically France and Germany.

Edited January 12 by Carolus

[Carolus]

Does it count as biological warfare if you sell old food to a country?

Food is not even sanctioned. 

On the other hand, Russia will certainly buy the cheapest option to save money, and quality control is expensive. What's a little botulism if you can buy more ammo instead?

 

 

Edited January 12 by Carolus

[Offshoot]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

'Sabotage' as raging inferno rips through plant producing armour for Putin's troops (msn.com)

On the question of sabotage, a lot of fires in Russia have been reported since the start of the war and there is always the question of whether they were accidental or deliberate.

Molfar tracks data on these fires and show a 125% increase in industrial fires in 2023 compared to 2022, with the vast majority occurring in warehouses and factories.

Edited January 12 by Offshoot

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

Yes, exactly! The whole idea might work better on a fixed wing drone that is a little bigger than the standard FPV package. There would more power for better cameras and so on. A the end of the day more stored energy ought to make a more useful piece of kit. But I may be on the wrong side of the cost benefit curve. 

I think the kids these days call them hybrid.  You can read all about them on that inter web thing.

https://www.unmannedsystemstechnology.com/expo/hybrid-propulsion/

Problem appears to be weight.  These look like they would be for larger mother-drones.

Edit: this looks like one of the smallest ones (100km range!) https://skyfront.com

 

Edited January 12 by The_Capt

[cesmonkey]

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

15 hours ago, The_Capt said:

2) conduct a new form of firepower warfare that would see thousands of unmanned systems essentially scrub enough land and sky to allow for traditional breaching and maneuver.

That is basically the only option which can result in meaningful territorial gains in this war. A proper Cambrai moment - right now, we are sometime in 1915-1916 wondering if there is going to be a technological solution allowing breakout of the trenches and revival of maneuver. Is it gas? Underground mining? Or those lumbering tractor-like contraptions that the British are fond of?

[danfrodo]

nice aggregation of war status here:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/1/11/2216826/-Ukraine-Invasion-Day-688-freezing-temps-constrain-operations-on-the-front?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

Very cold currently, snow on the ground.  Not a lot of good news, nothing alarming either, just more stuff that points to stalemate and attrition it seems.  

[dan/california]

6 hours ago, Carolus said:

Does it count as biological warfare if you sell old food to a country?

Food is not even sanctioned. 

On the other hand, Russia will certainly buy the cheapest option to save money, and quality control is expensive. What's a little botulism if you can buy more ammo instead?

 

 

Until bad food kills half an elementary school, and puts the other half in intensive care. Then the security services do a completely bleeped job of trying to claim it was intentional poisoning, and all of a sudden you have a real opposition movement on your hands

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I think the kids these days call them hybrid.  You can read all about them on that inter web thing.

https://www.unmannedsystemstechnology.com/expo/hybrid-propulsion/

Problem appears to be weight.  These look like they would be for larger mother-drones.

Edit: this looks like one of the smallest ones (100km range!) https://skyfront.com

 

That would be exactly what I had in mind. Seems like somebody ought to order several thousand, or several tens of thousands, of them for Ukraine. Yes that would require a whole new factory, but whole new factories are the point if we want to win this war.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Until bad food kills half an elementary school, and puts the other half in intensive care. Then the security services do a completely bleeped job of trying to claim it was intentional poisoning, and all of a sudden you have a real opposition movement on your hands

Funnily enough, salmonella epidemics used to be a thing during late Communism. IIRC the dynamics were somewhat different - instead of a few concentrated deaths there were many (hundreds?) of people sick in the whole country, because the contaminated eggs got into general trade and were popping up in different places, triggering regional panic waves. Quite disruptive.

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Until bad food kills half an elementary school, and puts the other half in intensive care. Then the security services do a completely bleeped job of trying to claim it was intentional poisoning, and all of a sudden you have a real opposition movement on your hands

That would be exactly what I had in mind. Seems like somebody ought to order several thousand, or several tens of thousands, of them for Ukraine. Yes that would require a whole new factory, but whole new factories are the point if we want to win this war.

Or one just makes it disappear.  BLocks mention on RU social media, news doesn't cover it.  Or they do cover it and say it was UKR terrorist scheme, poisoning the eggs in transit.

[dan/california]

11 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Or one just makes it disappear.  BLocks mention on RU social media, news doesn't cover it.  Or they do cover it and say it was UKR terrorist scheme, poisoning the eggs in transit.

Oh I am sure they will try to do both, as ham fistedly as humanly possible. But a first class panic about the safety of the food supply, followed by a crack down that doesn't quite work, is exactly the kind of thing that sends brittle regimes over the edge.

[cesmonkey]

Saw this linked on defence-blog.com

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

I like the sound effects, although I would have gone with traditional pewpewpew

[poesel]

Ecuador and The US concluded an agreement on the exchange of Soviet weapons worth $200 million for modern equipment. The deal should be completed by the end of this month. Ecuador doesn't know for which purpose the US is receiving them.. could be Ukraine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Ecuadorian_Armed_Forces

Ecuador has some Soviet manpads and light AA. Nice to have, but nothing fancy. But why is the west not doing that more often? Should be quite some kit floating around.