How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

Today's episode of 'more russian stuff blowing up'.  Sharing because has video of close range trench fight.  Don't know how it ended.  UKR & RU shooting at each other lengthwise down the trench system from 20m or so away.  Crazy.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/12/12/2211239/-More-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-Russia-s-tax-agency-Ukraine-s-cell-phone-provider-are-hacked?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

 

[dan/california]

It says something that this is a target worthy of spending a PGM on

[cesmonkey]

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 minute ago, cesmonkey said:

 

Exactly. Tet offensive style. Perversely, big Russian casualties work to their advantage from that angle, because if they have thousands of soldiers and units of "technika" to throw away, then surely they must have an order of magnitude more in reserve, so the war is lost already.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

Very apropos our topic du jour.

[cesmonkey]

 

[Zeleban]

Extremely alarming news from the bridgehead at Krynoki from Mashovets. It looks like the Russians managed to create from the newly created airborne divisions a truly combat-ready unit capable of effectively storming positions.

The enemy is making significant efforts, regardless of losses, to push our units back into the river floodplain. He has been carrying out almost continuous attack and assault operations with the forces of the 104th Airborne Division for more than four days.

Units of its 328th and 337th air assault regiments are attacking the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this settlement. both from the southwestern direction (from the Cossack Camps, along the coastal road, and through the forest located south of the village).

Next, it will be a little unusual, direct speech from my insider:

"The bridgehead now rests solely on mines. The air assault division began to drive directly into positions from the forest in an infantry fighting vehicle and land troops. There was a day when everyone thought that the bridgehead would be pushed into the water. And we were all urgently involved in mining in the rain. We flew in the rain because we had no choice. And the mines had been completed several weeks before, so a high percentage of explosions were required immediately.

All assaults stop at mines. They have been attacking continuously for four days, but we have stabilized the situation a little and they are not reaching our positions. In fact, it's hell here right now. In a week and a half, the Rashians lost up to 10 armored personnel carriers, up to 10 tanks and 20-25 infantry fighting vehicles. The forest and Krynki are littered with iron. But the meat storms continue. Today is the first day when the assault was limited to the 2nd armored personnel carrier. Unfortunately, our progress (meaning on the left bank) has been stopped..."

This is a direct speech from one of the commanders of the Ukrainian tactical units conducting combat operations on the left bank of the Dnieper. This was written yesterday, December 12th. That is, General Teplinsky did not lie.

He continues to launch his direct subordinates - units and subunits of the 104th Airborne Division (in his permanent position, he is the commander of the Russian airborne forces / airborne forces) into continuous attacks in the area of the village of Krynki, just to liquidate the Ukrainian bridgehead.

For those who forgot, I’ll remind you.

The 104th Airborne Assault Division belongs to the so-called “newly formed” (or “recreated”) divisions of the Russian Airborne Forces, deployed as part of the general process of deploying the enemy’s strategic reserves. From the beginning of its formation, it was called the 104th Airborne Division of the Mobilization Reserve and its composition included, to put it mildly, rather “strange” units and units, staffed by “mobilization units.”

But over time, the Russian command took the process of obtaining a more or less acceptable level of combat effectiveness for this formation more seriously. And during 2023, it acquired the features of a full-fledged airborne division, which, in fact, the 104th Airborne Division is now trying to demonstrate near Krinki, showing an “exorbitant” level of aggressiveness in attack/assault operations, despite the fact that it flies from our Marines to The answer is quite sensitive.

Edited December 13, 2023 by Zeleban

[Tux]

14 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Then of course an opponent is going to send out decoys to draw these c-UAS systems and try and opening up room for their own UAS to exploit.  Or if they go fully autonomous the UAS are not emitting, or are doing it in bursts so no signal to ping in on.

I am not saying it is a bad idea but I strongly suspect that the unmanned space is going to be a system-of-systems with layering, counters and counter-counters.  This will occur in both air and surface configurations.  I suspect that there will be an unmanned outer layer and engagement zone.  This zone will have to be negotiated and superiority established before the inner core can be engaged…to a point.  That inner core, which will likely be a manned and unmanned ground mix that are more likely designed to support and sustain the unmanned outer layer, will not look anything like the tactical formations we see today.  Firepower will have become fully distributed, a lethal mist.  So inner core will likely be more about being a C4ISR node.  It will have to be light and camouflaged or operational ISR will pick them up and kill them.

At this point land-air warfare really begins to look more like naval sub-surface warfare but one has to build and sustain the ocean while hiding within in it.  Is you can find an opponent and collapse their ocean/bubble, they are dead.  Shield systems will be key but I strongly suspect it may take time for them to catch up.

Now what is truly terrifying is what happens when one side wins and dominates, and then break through to civilian population centres?  That lethal mist against defenceless civilians is going to be ugly.

 

11 hours ago, JonS said:

...aaaaand we go around the loop again.

Both absolutely right.  In a year or so the sky above a battlefied may already look exactly as you describe.  Until then, though...

The conversation covering some possible ways the drone war will develop is interesting and healthy but at the moment we haven't really started JonS' loop.  Each side has recce/strike drones and that's about it.  So whoever fields the first effective 'drone-fighter' will likely gain a brief but significant advantage in *this* war.

Perhaps they'll even name it the "Eindecker" and someone will have a modern-day Fokker Scourge to deal with.

 

 

 

[JonS]

7 hours ago, The_Capt said:

(Bats eating snow…copyright).

I give you that one, but NOT mist-eating-mist

[Tux]

1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Exactly. Tet offensive style. Perversely, big Russian casualties work to their advantage from that angle, because if they have thousands of soldiers and units of "technika" to throw away, then surely they must have an order of magnitude more in reserve, so the war is lost already.

The West is watching: look busy!

 

46 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Extremely alarming news from the bridgehead at Krynoki from Mashovets. It looks like the Russians managed to create from the newly created airborne divisions a truly combat-ready unit capable of effectively storming positions.

The enemy is making significant efforts, regardless of losses, to push our units back into the river floodplain. He has been carrying out almost continuous attack and assault operations with the forces of the 104th Airborne Division for more than four days.

Units of its 328th and 337th air assault regiments are attacking the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this settlement. both from the southwestern direction (from the Cossack Camps, along the coastal road, and through the forest located south of the village).

Next, it will be a little unusual, direct speech from my insider:

"The bridgehead now rests solely on mines. The air assault division began to drive directly into positions from the forest in an infantry fighting vehicle and land troops. There was a day when everyone thought that the bridgehead would be pushed into the water. And we were all urgently involved in mining in the rain. We flew in the rain because we had no choice. And the mines had been completed several weeks before, so a high percentage of explosions were required immediately.

All assaults stop at mines. They have been attacking continuously for four days, but we have stabilized the situation a little and they are not reaching our positions. In fact, it's hell here right now. In a week and a half, the Rashians lost up to 10 armored personnel carriers, up to 10 tanks and 20-25 infantry fighting vehicles. The forest and Krynki are littered with iron. But the meat storms continue. Today is the first day when the assault was limited to the 2nd armored personnel carrier. Unfortunately, our progress (meaning on the left bank) has been stopped..."

This is a direct speech from one of the commanders of the Ukrainian tactical units conducting combat operations on the left bank of the Dnieper. This was written yesterday, December 12th. That is, General Teplinsky did not lie.

He continues to launch his direct subordinates - units and subunits of the 104th Airborne Division (in his permanent position, he is the commander of the Russian airborne forces / airborne forces) into continuous attacks in the area of the village of Krynki, just to liquidate the Ukrainian bridgehead.

For those who forgot, I’ll remind you.

The 104th Airborne Assault Division belongs to the so-called “newly formed” (or “recreated”) divisions of the Russian Airborne Forces, deployed as part of the general process of deploying the enemy’s strategic reserves. From the beginning of its formation, it was called the 104th Airborne Division of the Mobilization Reserve and its composition included, to put it mildly, rather “strange” units and units, staffed by “mobilization units.”

But over time, the Russian command took the process of obtaining a more or less acceptable level of combat effectiveness for this formation more seriously. And during 2023, it acquired the features of a full-fledged airborne division, which, in fact, the 104th Airborne Division is now trying to demonstrate near Krinki, showing an “exorbitant” level of aggressiveness in attack/assault operations, despite the fact that it flies from our Marines to The answer is quite sensitive.

This doesn't surprise me: bridgeheads are famously challenging to maintain and the existence of the UA on the east side of the Dnieper undermines the value of the entire land bridge.  It's like a new Debaltseve and I guess we can expect the Russians to be just as uncompromising while trying to take it.

Edited December 13, 2023 by Tux
typo

[Zeleban]

In my opinion, this well explains the position of the Republicans regarding assistance to Ukraine. 

[cesmonkey]

18 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

In my opinion, this well explains the position of the Republicans regarding assistance to Ukraine. 

Perhaps for some congressional Republicans, but the reality is always more complicated than what can be summed up in a tweet. It's not over yet.

[cesmonkey]

5 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Extremely alarming news from the bridgehead at Krynoki from Mashovets. It looks like the Russians managed to create from the newly created airborne divisions a truly combat-ready unit capable of effectively storming positions.

The enemy is making significant efforts, regardless of losses, to push our units back into the river floodplain. He has been carrying out almost continuous attack and assault operations with the forces of the 104th Airborne Division for more than four days.

Units of its 328th and 337th air assault regiments are attacking the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this settlement. both from the southwestern direction (from the Cossack Camps, along the coastal road, and through the forest located south of the village).

Next, it will be a little unusual, direct speech from my insider:

"The bridgehead now rests solely on mines. The air assault division began to drive directly into positions from the forest in an infantry fighting vehicle and land troops. There was a day when everyone thought that the bridgehead would be pushed into the water. And we were all urgently involved in mining in the rain. We flew in the rain because we had no choice. And the mines had been completed several weeks before, so a high percentage of explosions were required immediately.

All assaults stop at mines. They have been attacking continuously for four days, but we have stabilized the situation a little and they are not reaching our positions. In fact, it's hell here right now. In a week and a half, the Rashians lost up to 10 armored personnel carriers, up to 10 tanks and 20-25 infantry fighting vehicles. The forest and Krynki are littered with iron. But the meat storms continue. Today is the first day when the assault was limited to the 2nd armored personnel carrier. Unfortunately, our progress (meaning on the left bank) has been stopped..."

This is a direct speech from one of the commanders of the Ukrainian tactical units conducting combat operations on the left bank of the Dnieper. This was written yesterday, December 12th. That is, General Teplinsky did not lie.

He continues to launch his direct subordinates - units and subunits of the 104th Airborne Division (in his permanent position, he is the commander of the Russian airborne forces / airborne forces) into continuous attacks in the area of the village of Krynki, just to liquidate the Ukrainian bridgehead.

For those who forgot, I’ll remind you.

The 104th Airborne Assault Division belongs to the so-called “newly formed” (or “recreated”) divisions of the Russian Airborne Forces, deployed as part of the general process of deploying the enemy’s strategic reserves. From the beginning of its formation, it was called the 104th Airborne Division of the Mobilization Reserve and its composition included, to put it mildly, rather “strange” units and units, staffed by “mobilization units.”

But over time, the Russian command took the process of obtaining a more or less acceptable level of combat effectiveness for this formation more seriously. And during 2023, it acquired the features of a full-fledged airborne division, which, in fact, the 104th Airborne Division is now trying to demonstrate near Krinki, showing an “exorbitant” level of aggressiveness in attack/assault operations, despite the fact that it flies from our Marines to The answer is quite sensitive.

If you read WarGonzo's update for today, you might conclude the situation is not so negative:
https://t.me/wargonzo/16988
 

Quote

️Frontline report for the morning of December 13, 2023️

In the Kherson-Crimean direction, the Russian Armed Forces attacked Ukrainian positions on the left bank of the Dnieper in Krynki. It is worth saying that in this area the fighting is of a “swing” nature. From time to time, opposing sides try to seize the initiative. But they cannot achieve significant success. Under attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Veletinsky, Kherson, Antonovka, Prydneprovsky, Tokarevka, Novotyaginka and Tyaginka. RF Armed Forces - in Golaya Pristan, Alyoshki, Poima and Cossack Camps. (Fig. 1)

In the Zaporozhye direction, the Russian Armed Forces attacked from Novoprokopovka to Rabotino and from the Novofedorovka area. The Ukrainian Armed Forces held their positions. But it is clear that the Ukrainian troops have gone on the defensive. The Russian Armed Forces are seeking to nullify the successes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this sector, achieved during their summer-autumn counteroffensive. Ukrainian positions in Plavny, Pyatikhatki, Malye Shcherbaki, Novoandreevka, Orekhov and Novodanilovka are under fire. Russian ones - in Zherebyanki, Kopany, Novoprokopovka, Verbovoy and Novofedorovka. (Fig. 2)

On the Donetsk front, after artillery shelling, Russian troops continued assault operations near Novomikhailovka and Marinka. In the last of the listed settlements, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lose their last positions, but do not retreat. The Russian Armed Forces, with the support of long-range weapons, attacked at Nevelskoye and Pervomaiskoye. They also tried to advance to Tonenkoe and Severny (a settlement west of Avdeevka). The fortified area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine itself, after artillery bombardment, was attacked from the industrial zone in the southeast, near the coke plant to the northeast. The Russian Armed Forces, with the support of artillery and aviation, continued assault operations in the Stepnoye area (not to be confused with the settlements of the same name in the Zaporozhye and Ugledar directions). The Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked waste heaps northwest of Gorlovka, trying to force some Russian troops to be transferred to this area. (Fig. 3)

 

[Haiduk]

On 12/12/2023 at 4:33 PM, Zeleban said:

Since we are talking about cyber wars, here is the latest news: The largest mobile operator in Ukraine, Kyivstar, has been subjected to a cyber attack. Since the morning, the mobile network has been unavailable for users of this operator. It is alleged that Russian intelligence services are behind this cyber attack.

Unfortunately, many financial and trade networks in Ukraine were associated with this mobile operator. For example, card payments in many retail chains have not worked since the morning. This attack created many problems for Ukraine.

More interesting, Kyivstar to this time had Russian benifeciars (including Russian oligarch Michail Fridman), hidden through the chain of off-shore companies. Russian hacker group "Solntsepyok", who claimed they are responsible for attack and derstroing of "Kyivstar" servers and cloud databases, expressed a gratitude to some "Kuivstar" personnel, who assisted them. Alot of work for SBU. 

I think, now the state will move nore quickly in the question of "Kyivstar" nationalisation. This question was raising many time, because of hidden Russian control over the company, but it seems somebody had cool lobbists in state structures. 

On other hand GUR claimed four days ago their cyberwar department succesfully destroyed Russian Taxes Office database, so they never can restore it as it was and as if they will need about month to rise the system again. Thus, attacks on Kyivstar and "MONObank" (IT-security department of latter could repell the attack successfully) couyld be revenge for Tax Office attack, but I can't find yet information about any troubles on Russian sources. 

[Haiduk]

Today we have very loud night. At 3-00 Russians launched 10 ballistic missiles on Kyiv from Briansk oblast. It was combined strike of S-400 and Iskander-M. Our Patriot crews again were on the top and shot down all missiles. But, alas, because missiles were detectad again with delay, there were interceptions over the city itself, so fragments of them and at least two warheads fell down with detonations. 

More - 6 of theese missiles have fell in 2-3 km from my home. I heard very loud explosions and seen bright spashes in darkness through the curtain.

Objectives of Russian strike obviously were two thermal power plants and water pump station, feeding left-bank part of Kyiv (it located in 2 km from my house). This station has chlorine supplies for water disinfection, so hit of reservoir could lead to local chemical catastrophe. 

In result of attack 53 citizens were wounded (most of them by debrises of window glasses), 18 of them were hospitalized (2 kids amid them). Several multistorey houses, kindergarden and one hospital corps got damages from missile fragments, there were fragmnents impacts in tall house under construction, the warhead of shot down missile impacted and exploded on the avenue in 2 km from my home, making large crater, so the movement was closed

   

 

Edited December 13, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

 

My guess is this has been the Russian strategy since Fall of 2022, not 2023.  It is an outgrowth of Russia's general strategy of dividing and scaring the West into inaction since, well, Putin decided Russia needed the West out of its pathological way.

The meat assaults on anything and everything visible to the West will continue.  Of that I'm sure.  Russia has nothing else to hope for other than simply wearing down Ukrainian manpower.  Which, of course, is easier to do if they aren't as well supplied as they have been.

Taking out the left bank bridgehead is definitely going to be a priority under this strategic paradigm.  As long as Ukraine holds anything on the left bank there is "hope" of threatening the land bridge.

Steve

[Carolus]

Denmark pledged 1 billion of Ukraine aid today, Norway decided on a 6.8 billion aid plan for 2024 and German government agreed on a budget for 2024 that contains the promised 8 billion in Ukraine aid. 

Little bit of movement on the paperwork front.

[Haiduk]

After about two year of assaults, artillery shellings and bombing, Russians could seize "Ukrainian Hirosima" the place, which was Maryinka town. Piles of trash and crushed bricks under which previous streets can't be recognized, with some more or less "boxes" of houses, surviving on the west of town - here that got Russians. UKR troops still control small part of town on north-west, but for Russians western part of Maryinka is more important - here they got access to the road on Kurakhove, important town on Donetsk oblast, where thermal power plant is located. Despite on shellings and damages it still work.

   

[Haiduk]

UKR troops lost almost all gains of previous two months west from Robotyne. 

Situation here and in Donetsk oblast is very bad. UKR troops exhausted almost without rotations for several months of intensive combat. Many companies turned into platoons. In that time, when Russian moved here fresh troops or have opportunity to replenish battered units directly on the place or during short-term rotations in close rear. 

I suppose brigade general Tarnavskiy, who is commander of Operative-Strategic Troops Groupment "Tavria", which operated from Donbas to Zaporizhzhia oblast can have very hard talk with Stavka soon...

Edited December 13, 2023 by Haiduk

[poesel]

IFF systems for drones do not necessitate the drone to emit a constant signal.

A base station would emit a coded & encrypted signal with a request for identification. The drone would check the signal if it is valid and only then respond with the proper reaction.
So as long as you don't send the right signal, the drone is silent.

[kimbosbread]

14 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Hell put high frequency acoustic emitters and the damn things can chirp at each other like freakin bats.  (Bats eating snow…copyright).

Acoustic modems are a totally viable solution: I designed a system like this for IOT a decade and a half ago!

[cyrano01]

18 hours ago, JonS said:

Subs probably do have a version of this problem, but its solved though generally low density, coupled with very tight control over patrol areas - when you are in your box, you're the only friendly in there, therefore anything else is bad guys by definition (or possibly neutral) so no need for active iff. Plus, of course, there's humans in the loop.

My understanding is that, in addition to the above procedural measures, they will have a library of the known acoustic signatures of enemy submarines collected during peacetime (is SONINT or ACOUSINT a word?), possibly to the extent tha they can tell one Akula from another.

[kimbosbread]

6 minutes ago, cyrano01 said:

My understanding is that, in addition to the above procedural measures, they will have a library of the known acoustic signatures of enemy submarines collected during peacetime (is SONINT or ACOUSINT a word?), possibly to the extent tha they can tell one Akula from another.

I mean, this already exists for all consumer drones, presumably (both sounds and characteristic emissions).

I like Capt’s idea of passive patches and paint.

[LongLeftFlank]

 

7 hours ago, Zeleban said:

"The bridgehead now rests solely on mines. The air assault division began to drive directly into positions from the forest in an infantry fighting vehicle and land troops. There was a day when everyone thought that the bridgehead would be pushed into the water. And we were all urgently involved in mining in the rain. We flew in the rain because we had no choice. And the mines had been completed several weeks before, so a high percentage of explosions were required immediately.

All assaults stop at mines. They have been attacking continuously for four days, but we have stabilized the situation a little and they are not reaching our positions. In fact, it's hell here right now. In a week and a half, the Rashians lost up to 10 armored personnel carriers, up to 10 tanks and 20-25 infantry fighting vehicles. The forest and Krynki are littered with iron. But the meat storms continue. Today is the first day when the assault was limited to the 2nd armored personnel carrier. Unfortunately, our progress (meaning on the left bank) has been stopped..."

Solid report, many thanks.

Twitterverse isn't yielding much insight on the frontline situation over the last few days.

....There is this; WARNING this is (recent) drone bombing clips from Bakhmut area, and EXTREMELY graphic and awful, but filmed in some of the highest resolution I've seen, as in modder resource quality textures of snowy/muddy ground, trees, kit, explosions, etc. That's the only reason I am posting it here, for those who have the stomach.

One observation: these troops seem more professionally and uniformly equipped than many others we have been seeing, also fitter. So this could be an elite VDV unit being horribly dismembered here. Teplinski doesn't have an infinite number of those, and like a wolf-dog at some point they could turn....

Less graphic but also modder-interesting, a slideshow of still shots, many good quality (though some repeat) of what Brigadier Hackett once described as the 'indescribable mess of war'.

Tik Tok time from Teddy Bear...

 

 

Edited December 13, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

PR might be the least of UA command's worries right now, but fair enough. Don't see Zelenskyy smiling much these days; he clearly gets it.