How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Zeleban]

51 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Kamil still beating the drums over European suppliers funneling precision tools to Russia.

 

 

Yes, despite all the assurances of the West, a paradoxical situation is emerging when Western countries help Russia and not Ukraine. Even more than that, Western countries are reducing aid to Ukraine, while funding for Russia is only increasing.

[Haiduk]

When the rudder system of FH70 is broken, but crew has found a solution )

 

[Haiduk]

Russia prepares for receiving of F-16 by Ukraine. A works of integration of A-50 AWACS planes and S-400 SAM complexes have been starting some time ago and here first A-50 already is upgraded.

 

[Haiduk]

A rare occasion, when Excalibur ricocheted

 

[akd]

Longer version of previously posted 3rd Assault Brigade mech assault clip:

 

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Kamil still beating the drums over European suppliers funneling precision tools to Russia.

 

And we are back to sacrifice….

[MHW]

On 11/17/2023 at 10:29 AM, cesmonkey said:

I wonder what's the minimum amount of a F-16 you need to have in order for the rest of the plane to be replaced by spare parts?
The serial number of the aircraft?  

There's a story where a naval aviator described the total rebuild of a crashed aircraft, noting that the US Navy considers the data plate to be the plane. Does sound too good to be true.

[poesel]

4 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

How precision tools sent to Russia aren’t sabotaged properly, I don’t understand. I realize the French and Austrian industry totally loves Russia, but still…

Because neither France nor Austria are at war with Russia.

Morale and business do not mix. As long as it's legal, they will sell it. If it's illegal, some will stop, and some will raise the price. That is not nation specific. But some nations have harsher measures which will disincline more businessmen to try to make a profit than others.

[Battlefront.com]

34 minutes ago, MHW said:

There's a story where a naval aviator described the total rebuild of a crashed aircraft, noting that the US Navy considers the data plate to be the plane. Does sound too good to be true.

I think the data plate representing the [fill in blank] is common, if not standard, methodology within the US bureaucracy.  I know for sure that it works like that for amnesty full automatic weapons.  There's more than a few rare MGs that were built from parts using sideplates (with registered serial number) from M1919 MMGs.  From the bean counting standpoint it's the serial number that matters, not what the item is.  So I for one COMPLETELY believe the possibility of sending Ukraine some non-functional airframes with serial numbers and allowing them to order "replacement parts" for them.

Steve

[Beleg85]

https://militaryland.net/news/offensive-through-the-eyes-of-a-soldier/

Interesting, about summer offensive.

54 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

And we are back to sacrifice….

Yup, unfortunatelly our ability to make them is one of causes of current stalemate. I am not sure if any business company collectivelly understand what sacrifice even means; it's concept coming from a world beyond corpo-language. And what cannot be expressed, cannot be thought.

[poesel]

A few pages back we discussed anti-drone measures. This is a short video of some students (I think) from Nanjing university who build a rocket with a visual sensor.
This is not military grade and misses some parts and functions. But if some students can build such a thing, the industry can, too.

I think this will be the last war where small drones can roam as freely as they do here. In future wars, it will be much more dangerous for them.

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, poesel said:

Because neither France nor Austria are at war with Russia.

Morale and business do not mix. As long as it's legal, they will sell it. If it's illegal, some will stop, and some will raise the price. That is not nation specific. But some nations have harsher measures which will disincline more businessmen to try to make a profit than others.

Yes, however some companies are more concerned about their public image and their relationship with their customers than others.  Many companies made the calculation that whatever money they were getting from Russian business just wasn't worth it.  Some of those, no doubt, were even shrewder and thinking that eventually they would either be legally barred from doing business in Russia *or* the business environment there would be so bad that they'd pull out anyway.  Always better to do something popular early instead of suffering PR hits and winding up doing it anyway for pure business reasons.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, hcrof said:

talking of smart minefields: fpv drone ambushes where they sit on the ground under observation from another drone. When the enemy appears they pop up and kill them.

 

A few people here pondered this very thing a while ago.  It is a loitering munition without the need to expend energy staying in the air.  It's brilliant and example of a creative solution to technological problems without the need for any new technology.

Steve

[poesel]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, however some companies are more concerned about their public image and their relationship with their customers than others. 

Yes, but only if your company is marketing something for public consumption. Companies like GfM couldn't care less what the public thinks about them because they are selling a very specific product to a niche market. If you need that kind of machine, you buy it. There is no public consumer who could boycott them, no bad PR would hurt their sales.

[Vanir Ausf B]

36 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

https://militaryland.net/news/offensive-through-the-eyes-of-a-soldier/

Interesting, about summer offensive.

Very interesting. It runs counter to the narrative that all Ukraine needs to win is more weapons.

[Haiduk]

Russians intensively trying to restore situation around Bakhmut, they brought reinforcements and attack from Berkhivka on the north to Andriivka on the south. 

Most successive Russians are on northern flank, where they during two weeks of fierce asaults could push UKR troops back from Berkivske reservoir and northern of Bohdanivka.

 

On southern flank UKR troops also was forced to withdraw on several parts, but not more than on 100-200 m. Albeit after continous assaults Russians about 1-2 days ago could retake railroad stattion north from Klishchiivka and renew control over railway section north from this village.

One of armored assaults east from Klishchiivka in pounds area, repelled bt 93rd mech.brigade.

 

[Battlefront.com]

32 minutes ago, poesel said:

Yes, but only if your company is marketing something for public consumption. Companies like GfM couldn't care less what the public thinks about them because they are selling a very specific product to a niche market. If you need that kind of machine, you buy it. There is no public consumer who could boycott them, no bad PR would hurt their sales.

Not necessarily true, but of course the more obscure/niche the product the less PR matters.  The two examples where it does matter is if the activity is part of a much larger company which does have to be concerned about its public image and a large company that has shareholders who need to manage their own public image.  Great examples of the latter were companies doing business with South Africa during the Apartheid era had difficulty maintaining investors because of the pressure to "divest" by the public and other institutions. 

My point is there are a lot of different reasons for companies to withdraw from the Russian market without being legally obligated to.

Steve

[Carolus]

This podcast claims that a number of the North Korean shells suffer from shoddy manufacturing. 

Good news if true.

[Battlefront.com]

19 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Suddden attack of UKR troops on Pivdenne - Horlivka direction in Donetsk oblast. Almost all war this was probably most quiet part of front.

This looks like someone on the Ukrainian side spotted an opportunity and took advantage of it, not that there's some new offensive operation.  As you say, the Horlivka sector is well fortified and established.  Not a good place to attack.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russians intensively trying to restore situation around Bakhmut, they brought reinforcements and attack from Berkhivka on the north to Andriivka on the south. 

For me, my reaction to this is "what took the Russians so long to do this?".  Ukraine committed very few resources to the Bakhmut counter-attack and it never seemed to me that hard for Russia to arrest it.  Yet it didn't, which seemed to indicate that at the time they didn't have the reserves.  Now that Russia is reinforcing the area the question is where did those reinforcements come from?

Steve

[Haiduk]

41 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Very interesting. It runs counter to the narrative that all Ukraine needs to win is more weapons.

The whole plan of our big counter-offensive was based on a simple thing – Russians see Bradleys, Leopards and they run away. They didn’t, they were well-prepared for us.

I wonder, what military genius planned this sh...t? I know, that all UKR offensve plans were playing in special computer simalations and HQ staff games with difefrent variants with participation of US and other NATO countries. Is this was their opinion too about "Russians will see western armor and run?" 

There were cases when we requested artillery support to suppress enemy positions, but were denied because of M109 Paladin’s expensive shells. People died because of this. We also found out that our tankers never fired from Leopards before. They trained on T-72s the whole time and were sent to the south with different tanks.

Typically for Ukrianian army. Especially with precise ammo usage permission. Now situation became better, because of we probably received many of these shells, but anyway, to get permission for Excalibur you need in most worse cases an "ok" from brigade's chief of artillery, after he has seen several results of recon flights and personally will be sure this target is worth for such ammunition and it isn't a decoy. Also he can refute if will consider this is not priority target and if battery or battalion has low level of guided shells. Then if a tank will shel-by-shell dismountle our positions, standing in one place about 20-30 minutes he also can reject, saying some sh..t like "this is your problems, ask for Javelins"

 

Edited November 18, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_MonkeyKing]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

The whole plan of our big counter-offensive was based on a simple thing – Russians see Bradleys, Leopards and they run away. They didn’t, they were well-prepared for us.

I wonder, what military genius planned this sh...t? I know, that all UKR offensve plans were playing in special computer simalations and HQ staff games with difefrent variants with participation of US and other NATO countries. Is this was their opinion too about "Russians will see western armor and run?" 

There were cases when we requested artillery support to suppress enemy positions, but were denied because of M109 Paladin’s expensive shells. People died because of this. We also found out that our tankers never fired from Leopards before. They trained on T-72s the whole time and were sent to the south with different tanks.

Typically for Ukrianian army. Especially with precise ammo usage permission. Now situation became better, because of we probably received many of these shells, baut anyway, to get permission for Excalibur you need in most worse cases an "ok" from brigade's chief of artillery, after he has seen several results of recon flights and personally will be sure this target is worth for sich ammunition and didn't decoy. Also he can refute if will consider this is not priority target battery or battalion has low level of guided shells. Then if a tank will shel-by-shell dismountle our positions, standing in one place about 20-30 minutes he also can reject, saying some sh..t like "this is your problems, ask for Javelins"

 

I think that article is about what you can expect when you get opinions of a single company co.

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I think that article is about what you can expect when you get opinions of a single company co.

I haven't read it yet, but it is a universal truth that the lower down the Order of Battle you go, the more blame gets directed at the top and the more creative it is.

I think it is true that senior Ukrainian command thought that once they got through the first belt of defenses that they could brush aside the remaining Russian infantry.  There is nothing wrong with this theory as it is standard maneuver doctrine and there's endless of examples of this working throughout history.

The problem with the theory was that Ukraine had what was needed to get through the first belt of defenses with enough intact force to conduct exploitation operations.  One of the reasons this didn't happen is that Russia decided to invest almost everything it had into keeping the most forward positions. 

As for the Excalibur use criticism... this is similar in the US military, especially years ago when the shells were fairly rare.  If you left the decision making to Squad or Platoon leaders they would request one every single time because it is in their interests, right then and there, to make sure the target is destroyed.  Grunts don't have the luxury of thinking ahead days or weeks or months to when there might not be any shells left.  That's what higher level of command does.

Steve

[Haiduk]

27 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

For me, my reaction to this is "what took the Russians so long to do this?".  Ukraine committed very few resources to the Bakhmut counter-attack and it never seemed to me that hard for Russia to arrest it.  Yet it didn't, which seemed to indicate that at the time they didn't have the reserves.  Now that Russia is reinforcing the area the question is where did those reinforcements come from?

Steve

One of main strike forces of Russians on northern flank is 331st airborne regiment of 98th airborne division. They arrived from replenishment and training. Other units on the southern flank by the words of officer of 3rd assult brigade are receiving new portions of "meat" directly on the place. He told they fight with Russian VDV too, and main corps of their squad-platoon-company commanders are mostly experienced servicemen in that time, when many of privates and some number of sergeants are just "green", but situation saves a presence of "veterans" among commanders. 

In more recent interview comamnder of 3rd brigade Biletskyi told even among Russian VDV level of combat motivation and "fanatism" is very different. If compare two VDV units, with which they had a clashes - 31st air-assault and 83rd air-assault brigades, that first one were most tough and dangerous enemies, which always fought hard and untill the end, like in usual stereotypes about Russian VDV, in that time that 83rd brigade had poor comamnd and personnel, which easy can be routed after more or less strong attack.

Edited November 18, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, poesel said:

A few pages back we discussed anti-drone measures. This is a short video of some students (I think) from Nanjing university who build a rocket with a visual sensor.
This is not military grade and misses some parts and functions. But if some students can build such a thing, the industry can, too.

I think this will be the last war where small drones can roam as freely as they do here. In future wars, it will be much more dangerous for them.

 

Won’t that create an environment even more dangerous for people?  I mean if one can 3-D print a cheap smart missile that can find, track and hit a small UAS through the trees, why would I point it at a UAS and not troops and vehicles?  A little micro-missile like that could target individual soldiers and be carried by a UAS firing from standoff.  Or ground launched from any number of systems including new smart mine system.

If we can solve for small fully autonomous UAS to any significant level, we have a new whole set of problems by whatever does the solving.