How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Hapless]

54 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

 

Those side-by-side thermal and non-augmented shots really show off how important thermals are

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, Hapless said:

Those side-by-side thermal and non-augmented shots really show off how important thermals are

Damn you Hapless.  He got first post on page 3000.

[Rokko]

2 hours ago, Kraft said:

 

This is Mashovets I presume? Where the hell does this guy get his information from that he can cite enemy single-digit precision personel numbers? He too has become a source I've lost some trust in over time, especially after he claimed in June or July already that the Russians had to throw most of their strategic reserves into the South to hold the line or some similar nonsense.

Saw this yesterday already and felt incredibly saddened. My wife was still pregnant when this tragedy occurred and now our daughter is taking her first steps, while lies dead besides his. Words can not describe how much I hate this war.

Edited November 6, 2023 by Rokko

[LongLeftFlank]

28 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Damn you Hapless.  He got first post on page 3000.

For peaceful purposes only!

There's also the classic "Breakfast Bazooka / Between Meal Mortar" at 4:15 of this longer video.

They say you never hear the sugared snack with your name on it...

Edited November 6, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Haiduk]

8 minutes ago, Rokko said:

Where the hell does this guy get his information from that he can cite enemy single-digit personel numbers?

Mashovets is retired military, he is member of UKR OSINT group "Information resistanse", established in 2014. Partially he gets informatin for own articles from westren OSINTers, but I think their group has some communicatins with UKR intelligence and their informators.

[Hapless]

As usual, I'm suddenly finding I accomplished something entirely by accident and feel a culturally ingrained need to apologise...

But hey-ho, back to work.

[Beleg85]

Not directly about Ukraine, but since we talk about Chechnya a lot: younger son of Kadyrov, Adam (mentioned before) reportedly took some unspecified, but high position among senior security apparatus of his father.

https://www.euronews.com/2023/11/06/chechen-leader-hands-son-15-prominent-position-in-security-forces

Younger fatty (yes, I am mean- kid is already sadistic at 15 years old) Adam will take security and likely military forces; he appears more and more often with his father. Nominally older but more timid Akhmet will likely succeed overall governance and civil administration. Of 3rd, middle Zelimkhan (still older than Adam) little is known. It looks like projected system in case of father's death is something of a family business with carefully limited boundries, likely guarded by closest allies of the family. Imagine succesfull Italian Pizza company but with guns.

For past 2 years we have occassion to watch how conditions are created for future succession in totalitarian regime. Note how Kadyrov is actually more prudent than Putin...despite relatively young age, he knows he can pass away and try to prepare his small kingdom for it.

[Rokko]

15 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Mashovets is retired military, he is member of UKR OSINT group "Information resistanse", established in 2014. Partially he gets informatin for own articles from westren OSINTers, but I think their group has some communicatins with UKR intelligence and their informators.

But still, how does he get a number like "1589 personel"? I can only assume that he a) made it up or b) took some official TOE and multiplied it with some estimated percentage, in which case giving a single-digit precision number is at least ... kind of unprofessional I guess?

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Not directly about Ukraine, but since we talk about Chechnya a lot: younger son of Kadyrov, Adam (mentioned before) reportedly took some unspecified, but high position among senior security apparatus of his father.

https://www.euronews.com/2023/11/06/chechen-leader-hands-son-15-prominent-position-in-security-forces

Younger fatty (yes, I am mean- kid is already sadistic at 15 years old) Adam will take security and likely military forces; he appears more and more often with his father. Nominally older but more timid Akhmet will likely succeed overall governance and civil administration. Of 3rd, middle Zelimkhan (still older than Adam) little is known. It looks like projected system in case of father's death is something of a family business with carefully limited boundries, likely guarded by closest allies of the family. Imagine succesfull Italian Pizza company but with guns.

For past 2 years we have occassion to watch how conditions are created for future succession in totalitarian regime. Note how Kadyrov is actually more prudent than Putin...despite relatively young age, he knows he can pass away and try to prepare his small kingdom for it.

It is hard to overstate how different things might be if Putin had a competent son who was 45 or 50 years old. Russias sexism is so strong the Putin has tried far harder to make his daughters invisible than he has tried to position them to take over after him. 

[Probus]

3000!!!  \  /

[kimbosbread]

22 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

That's the big ones, though. Those are basically cheap cruise missiles. Now cruise missiles getting really cheap might be also transformative is the air defense can't be scaled up, but my understanding was that most of the "new world" is because of small battery powered drones used for real-time ISR and the cheap even smaller suicide drones.

The coin size turbines I mentioned a while back have existed for 25+ years, but it’s not clear how “production ready” there are. However, RC engines weighing 400-700g that can propel a 5-10kg aircraft and consume 5-10ml of fuel per minute. Even smallish battery powered drones can do 3+ hours, if you go with a more sail-plane-ish configuration with a 3m wing.

52 minutes ago, Hapless said:

Those side-by-side thermal and non-augmented shots really show off how important thermals are

Basic thermal modules are shockingly cheap and small: https://www.flir.com/products/lepton/?vertical=microcam&segment=oem.

[The_Capt]

55 minutes ago, Hapless said:

As usual, I'm suddenly finding I accomplished something entirely by accident and feel a culturally ingrained need to apologise...

But hey-ho, back to work.

I am pretty sure that automatically makes you a Canadian citizen.

[danfrodo]

58 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Not directly about Ukraine, but since we talk about Chechnya a lot: younger son of Kadyrov, Adam (mentioned before) reportedly took some unspecified, but high position among senior security apparatus of his father.

https://www.euronews.com/2023/11/06/chechen-leader-hands-son-15-prominent-position-in-security-forces

Younger fatty (yes, I am mean- kid is already sadistic at 15 years old) Adam will take security and likely military forces; he appears more and more often with his father. Nominally older but more timid Akhmet will likely succeed overall governance and civil administration. Of 3rd, middle Zelimkhan (still older than Adam) little is known. It looks like projected system in case of father's death is something of a family business with carefully limited boundries, likely guarded by closest allies of the family. Imagine succesfull Italian Pizza company but with guns.

For past 2 years we have occassion to watch how conditions are created for future succession in totalitarian regime. Note how Kadyrov is actually more prudent than Putin...despite relatively young age, he knows he can pass away and try to prepare his small kingdom for it.

I suspect Putin doesn't care about the world after himself outside of him being remembered as some great conquerer.  Succession plans means danger for himself.  I also suspect he's like a character from the book All the Light We Cannot See, or from Raiders of Lost Ark, where he's obsessed w finding ways to unnaturally extend his heinous life.  

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

It is hard to overstate how different things might be if Putin had a competent son who was 45 or 50 years old. Russias sexism is so strong the Putin has tried far harder to make his daughters invisible than he has tried to position them to take over after him. 

Yup, but it's probably not sexism: all his children would likely be purposfully kept away from political power, male or female, as he always clearly expressed such wishes. Despite our perception, in Russia he is viewed as quite modern and even liberal man when comes to family, women, personal heritage etc.

Chechens works differently- they are extremelly familiar, so we may likely see diarchy or even triumvirate for long years, with council of Elders (think of Senate made from chief followers of Kadyrovs) moderating conflicts. At some point ambitions will probably take over, but it may take a long time. Even in such system somebody must be clear pater familias, though. Ofc. first Kadyrov must be dead, which is by no means a given in nearest future.

Edited November 6, 2023 by Beleg85

[Butschi]

29 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I am pretty sure that automatically makes you a Canadian citizen.

Not a German, that's for sure. Over here making the first post on page 3000 would be seen as proof that you are just better than those slackers who can't be bothered to time their post correctly. A good German starts working at 6 am so his day is longer and he doesn't miss this kind of critical appointment. You could also write a book on how hard work got you to where you are now. And anyone who says it was not your accomplishment, you just got lucky, would be accused of being envious.

[Battlefront.com]

Hopefully I made 3000

One quick thought about minefields and fortifications that we have not explicitly discussed yet.  The best way to deal with them is to not have to deal with them in the first place.  It is increasingly possible to set up a semi-static defense to deny the enemy an unfettered opportunity to mine and dig in.  You can't do it everywhere all at the same time on a front this large, but you could dedicate ISR, drones, and artillery to keeping lanes clear by blasting anything that moves within it.  Unlikely to totally prevent defenses from being established, but you could ensure that whatever is established is a shadow of what it otherwise could have been and at a higher cost to the defender.

Steve

[dan/california]

17 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Yup, but it's probably not sexism: all his children would likely be purposfully kept away from political power, male or female, as he always clearly expressed such wishes. Despite our perception, in Russia he is viewed as quite modern and even liberal man when comes to family, women, personal heritage etc.

Chechens works differently- they are extremelly familiar, so we may likely see diarchy or even triumvirate for long years, with council of Elders (think of Senate made from chief followers of Kadyrovs) moderating conflicts. At some point ambitions will probably take over, but it may take a long time. Even in such system somebody must be clear pater familias, though. Ofc. first Kadyrov must be dead, which is by no means a given in nearest future.

Yes, but that entire image was built by a man who had lot of daughters. In another timeline where Putin had a comepetent male heir we would already have seen him crown himself Czar, and declare a new dynasty. They would have ginned up a "miraculous" discovery of a female Romanov heir who just happened to wildly in love with Jr, and so on. 

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Hopefully I made 3000

Steve

Well yes, but how about a micro bone about the new game? 

[acrashb]

Ukraine is taking a long and wide view of the war.  Long as in war criminals will be hunted until they are gone.  Wide as in not just on the Russo-Ukraine front:

Somehow this type of action will interact with any formal pause in hostilities - can they keep killing their enemies globally if Ukraine and Russia cease fighting on the front lines?  

And how on earth did they insert forces into Sudan?  Which leads to understanding of how they will do it in future.

Edit: squeaked in on 3000

Edited November 6, 2023 by acrashb

[Harmon Rabb]

19 hours ago, Haiduk said:

First satellite images of "Askold" misisile corvette before and after strike have appeared.

Decpite Russian TG claimed about 2-3 hits of SCALP missiles at the ship, she didn't look enough damaged, but maybe more quality images will come soon or photos from the ground.

Image of 31st of October

And 5th of October

More satellite images of the results of the attack.

And by the way congratulations on hitting 3000 my boys! I just wish this damn war would be over with an outcome favorable to Ukraine already.

Edited November 6, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Letter from Prague]

3000 pages, one thousand for each day of the three-day special military operation?

[kimbosbread]

33 minutes ago, acrashb said:

And how on earth did they insert forces into Sudan?  Which leads to understanding of how they will do it in future.

“See you in November” vibes, but with a lot of extra people.

[Battlefront.com]

An article in the NYT about a problem with the reliance upon artillery -> physiological damage to the bodies of the gun crews:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/us-army-marines-artillery-isis-pentagon.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20231106&instance_id=107032&nl=the-morning&regi_id=77867169&segment_id=149290&te=1&user_id=06eb42ecc9056dd32ea63af0c30707b6

For those without the ability to read this article, the short of it is US gun crews in Syria fired massive numbers of shells (7000+) in a fairly short period of time.  The evidence of crews suffering from mental conditions was enough to prompt the USMC to do a study.  It concluded that they were suffering TBI and other types of physical trauma.  The report (which I've only skimmed) is publicly available:

https://www.hqmc.marines.mil/Portals/61/Users/019/71/4371/Overpressure Study Report 20191025.pdf?ver=Nta6RKsuKvaHCTG_HrY1MQ%3D%3D

Seeing pictures of the M777s dug into bermed pits makes me think that's part of the problem right there.  The last thing you want to do with harmful shock waves is inhibit their energy from going elsewhere.

Steve

[danfrodo]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

An article in the NYT about a problem with the reliance upon artillery -> physiological damage to the bodies of the gun crews:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/us-army-marines-artillery-isis-pentagon.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20231106&instance_id=107032&nl=the-morning&regi_id=77867169&segment_id=149290&te=1&user_id=06eb42ecc9056dd32ea63af0c30707b6

For those without the ability to read this article, the short of it is US gun crews in Syria fired massive numbers of shells (7000+) in a fairly short period of time.  The evidence of crews suffering from mental conditions was enough to prompt the USMC to do a study.  It concluded that they were suffering TBI and other types of physical trauma.  The report (which I've only skimmed) is publicly available:

https://www.hqmc.marines.mil/Portals/61/Users/019/71/4371/Overpressure Study Report 20191025.pdf?ver=Nta6RKsuKvaHCTG_HrY1MQ%3D%3D

Seeing pictures of the M777s dug into bermed pits makes me think that's part of the problem right there.  The last thing you want to do with harmful shock waves is inhibit their energy from going elsewhere.

Steve

since the wave strength will reduce as the radius^2, I wonder if just have the crew move 5-10 meters away for each shot would significantly help.  Can they fire by pulling a rope?  

NYT also had article today ( I only saw headline) that UKR wants to expand across Dneiper (Dnipro?) to push RU artillery back from easily shelling Kherson city.

[Sekai]

Russian navy just can't catch a break. This year has been a disaster for their Black Sea fleet.

Edited November 6, 2023 by Sekai