How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kraft]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Maybe a few trillion dollars in economic development will help:

https://www.politico.eu/article/von-der-leyen-in-ukraine-ahead-of-enlargement-decision/#:~:text=KYIV — European Commission President Ursula,said on X from Kyiv.

But you right…we suck.  It is all our fault.  That is the narrative to take and totally does not play into the hands of people who want to withdraw support.

Never did I say something about 'you' specifically, when I am refering to the west, I am talking politicians.

About the article, it doesnt mention sums anywhere, just promises for nato and "support for whatever it takes*". *conditions apply, to be revoked at any election. You cannot with a straight face tell me there are still legitimate escalatory problems with sending taurus missiles 600 days in.

If there is a will for nato acceptance, it will be done, if not, there will be a thousand stones in the way.

Its a promise build purely on trust, unlike previous guarantees, which were signed and supposedly obligating.

32 Abrams tanks in a war which has consumed 688 UA tanks, there obviously are limits to these promises and treatees, why should I believe this support will be different in 10 years time, when other issues create conditions under which Putin sees a good opportunity to strike?

Should Ukraine then cede the next cities and maybe the Black Sea, because its too much effort to take it back? The salami slice has already happened 3 times in Ukraine, excluding Putins previous wars!

Edited November 4, 2023 by Kraft

[sross112]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Rumblings on mainstream:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/exhausted-and-disappointed-with-allies-ukraine-s-president-and-military-chief-warn-of-long-attritional-war-1.6630107

It reflects what I have been worried about for sometime.  What if the character of warfare has simply shifted?  What if Denial has simply become too large for offensive action to overcome?  What if Corrosive warfare has run out of runway?

My fear is that there may be no way, no matter how many resources pushed, to break through.  If the RUAF could not achieve air superiority, how are we supposed to build up the Ukrainian Air Force past that level?  It takes years to create that kind of air power.  We have written pages of analysis on the drone problem.  More tanks are not going to solve it.  The truly concerning reality might simply be that no matter what or how much we send, Defensive primacy has emerged. The implications of that are enormous.  The technology and tactics to achieve deeper offensive objectives might simply not exist.

So what? Well first I am not totally convinced we are there yet - but the UA CHOD and president’s assessment is not promising.  They have essentially admitted the summer-fall ‘23 offensive has culminated.  Unless this is also part of an information ploy.  My sense is that Ukraine might just dig in and hold on while shaping negotiations.  Or maybe there is one more rabbit to pull out of the hat.

We may be at the “best of bad” stage.  But let’s not forget that Russia is likely in worse condition.  I suspect their recent tactical offensives are simply attempting to convince that they still got game.  Those very well could have been the tail end of what the RA has left in the tank.

Regardless, won’t change what we have been discussing the last couple of pages.  One thing this war has taught me is that most wars end this way.  The total victories of WW2 are an anomaly.  Far more often wars end with no one happy.  No complete resolution.  Open wounds and a whole bunch undecided.  We might have to re-learn how to live with that.

 

I'm thinking that the biggest thing holding the UA back is a lack of guns and ammo. We've seen that the killers in this war is the combination of ISR and indirect fire. The UA doesn't have near enough systems or ammo to cover the entire front at once, more less to dominate anything other than a small operational area for a short period of time. Looking at the southern front this summer that seemed to be the MO, but the constraint was limited support. 

So I agree, it probably doesn't matter how many tanks are sent, but the number of tubes and shells can make a meaningful difference. I think the tanks and IFVs are still helpful for the final attack and support to clear the objective of whatever is left after a good pummeling, but without solving for air superiority (below and above 2000 feet) it would probably be suicide to do an actual breakout. So it is down to eating the elephant, one bite at a time. If the UA had enough support that process could be sped up and expanded to the point where they could do it faster, but it is all about controlling an operational area with ISR and fires. The assault element is now pretty much relegated to clean up.

As for attacking with conventional mass, it looks to me like all that is left is speed. Surprise is pretty much gone. Armor able to stop anything above shrapnel and small arms appears to be unnecessary (anything sitting still or moving slow within arty range or atgm range is killable). So if you do want to attack in the conventional combined arms mode you are going to have to do so at speed and with the mentality that you are going to lose a lot to take anything. It is the only way I can see mass being successful and from the videos of the RA attacks they might as well "Damn the torpedoes and full speed ahead" as the choice is to die slow or die fast, but at least you might get the chance to get on top of the defender if you go fast.

Or the good ole RA model of having enough mass to overwhelm, like Bagration style mass. Where there is so much going on that the defender can't address everything and multiple breaks occur leading to collapse. I'm not saying it wouldn't be a bloody awful mess, just that it might be the only way for mass to be viable is a metric shat ton of it all over at once. Or it would be the Somme, hard to tell at this point.

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

It reflects what I have been worried about for sometime.  What if the character of warfare has simply shifted?  What if Denial has simply become too large for offensive action to overcome?  What if Corrosive warfare has run out of runway

I'm not convinced that Corrosive warfare can be declared dead right now, but it's pretty clear that our traditional concepts of conventional offensive warfare are.  However, that doesn't mean they are all thrown out the window.

I think the most likely lesson learned from this war is that unsophisticated mass can no longer decisively win a war, or even battles, against sophisticated precision provided the defender has both the will and space to resist with.  Those caveats are important.  If Russia were hypothetically on the border of Moldova with its current crap quality military, I think it could take it even if the West supported it as it is supporting Ukraine today.  Therefore, I'd add qualify my sweeping statement by saying that unsophisticated mass will most likely fail without some combination of advantage of mass, time, space, and will.  Not to long ago advantage of mass was probably enough on its own.

Let us not forget that the this war started with Russia having overwhelming mass, but a screamingly obvious flawed plan and laughable execution against a defender that was mostly prepared yet lacking the significant precision capacity it has now.  Could Russia have been defeated outright in March 2022 if Ukraine and its allies had better prepared for the war?  I tend to think so.  If Russia had the same laughable execution, but a more narrow agenda (e.g. just the Donbas or just the land bridge), would it have succeeded?  I tend to think so.  Which means this war's initial outcome was on a knife's edge and its outcome was determined by factors other than mass or precision alone.

Where the war is now is that all the cards are on the table and nobody has a winning hand to play.  As I've argued since the start of this conflict, long term Ukraine has more chances of changing the status quo than Russia does.  Russia has already lost this war 10x over even though it isn't finished yet.  To be really simple about it, continuing a conflict of this scale is expensive and exhausting.  No matter how you examine the details, fundamentally Ukraine has every incentive to keep it going and Russia has just about none other than ego.  Given enough time Russia will be forced to concede the territory it gained through this war and, hopefully, 2014/2015.

The role Corrosive warfare has in this new reality is to ensure that the war is expensive for Russia to continue.  Obviously it cares nothing about the lives it loses, but it does care about having it's fleet sitting on the bottom of the sea.  It cares about millions of Dollars worth of aircraft being lost each month even while operating them conservatively.  And at some point it will be obligated to replace all the expensive AD and EW equipment it is losing or risk going without the protection they offer, which means more opportunities for Ukraine to corrode other things.  These sorts of costs do not happen without Corrosive warfare.

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

We may be at the “best of bad” stage.  But let’s not forget that Russia is likely in worse condition.  I suspect their recent tactical offensives are simply attempting to convince that they still got game.  Those very well could have been the tail end of what the RA has left in the tank.

Yes, I think posturing was a major incentive for the Russians to attack.  Even though it was a military disaster by any reasonable standard, it had an impact even on us jaded individuals.  Why?  It proved that Russia could sustain jaw dropping losses in recent months and still be willing and able to lose more for something completely stupid.  It also proved that even with Ukraine intelligently and diligently causing those losses, it still doesn't have any apparent means of changing the status quo. 

This was not the expected result from the summer counter offensive, not even for those (like me) that had far more modest goals (Melitopol) than others (Crimea).  I really thought Ukraine could kill Russians fast enough to matter, but Russia's ability to get volunteers sufficient to avoid another conscription was a shock to me.  It was a very high risk gamble that Russia took, but it looks like it paid off in the end.

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Regardless, won’t change what we have been discussing the last couple of pages.  One thing this war has taught me is that most wars end this way.  The total victories of WW2 are an anomaly.  Far more often wars end with no one happy.  No complete resolution.  Open wounds and a whole bunch undecided.  We might have to re-learn how to live with that.

Afghanistan and Iraq showed us that even with clear cut military victories wars don't automatically end.  So I think that lesson is still very much in our thinking.  But this is probably akin to the Korean war where both sides decided they didn't want to invest in achieving a clear cut military victory and instead decided to accept the status quo for now.  The difference is I don't see this war staying quiet for long even if both sides agree to some form of cease fire.  Russia's motivations for total domination over Ukraine have increased, Ukraine's understanding of this has also become crystal clear.  So yeah, I think we need to acknowledge this and make adjustments to NATO and the EU for full membership of Ukraine despite the issue not being fully settled.  Too much to lose if we don't.

Steve

[kimbosbread]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

My fear is that there may be no way, no matter how many resources pushed, to break through.  If the RUAF could not achieve air superiority, how are we supposed to build up the Ukrainian Air Force past that level?  

What is preventing the breakthrough? ISR, small drones, artillery, minefields and infantry manning fortifications. If it was possible to step 3 of these things, in order of hardest to easiest, I think a breakthrough would have a chance:

• FPV drone operators
• Artillery
• Trucks
• Locomotives (and trains in general)

I submit that a single autonomous loitering munition platform is the near-term solution for all of these, and that it could be designed, tested and built at scale in a year’s time:

• Gas-powered, so that it can loiter for 12+ hours
• Thermal + optical plus some zoom
• Substantial onboard processing power (equivalent to a modern smartphone)
• Autonomous, so it goes to a designated area and hunts in that space, or along a route
• Similar or smaller size to Lancet
• Similar or lower cost wrt to Lancet

Except for the “Autonomous” bullet point, one of these capabilities are anything special. Everything exists. And for the “autonomous” part, I think most of it is pretty simple image recognition tasks that could be run on an Nvidia Jetson or similar. Now that my big work project is done, I’ll see if I can toss together a poc and put it on github as demonstration for train hunting over the next few weekends.

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

1. So if I follow the last few dozen pages correctly, this frozen front with no cease-fire would require both sides to fortify, man and sustain a 'high hazard' drone-and-arty-vulnerable zone of 25-30kms (?) on each side of  line (i.e. mine belts?), extending along some 850 (?) km of front

2. (that excludes Belarus, which btw has got to be in even worse economic condition than Russia or Ukraine, assuming the EU has truly closed its borders to 'Belarusian octopus')

3. Note my stress on 'sustain.' Over 1/3 of that extended front is in the southern zone from Donetsk city to the Dnipr mouth. The river and its adjoining bayou areas has proven vulnerable to raiding, so must be fully manned, including artillery support.

4.  With the Ukies now gaining proficiency with ATACMS and other long range precision weapons, including drones, the very finite supply lines sustaining this, ahem, Russian 'Long Left Flank'© become more vulnerable to systematic interdiction and destruction than ever. 

5. Supply lines by their nature cannot hunker down. They must move, continually and, in the case of the land corridor, predictably. And in a world where movement carries increasingly high hazard, that's an asymetry I would expect the UA to feast upon richly.

...I would expect at minimum the Perekop isthmus to be shut down. Fix a bridge, knocked down again next day, ad infinitum. Or more likely, the bridging equipment itself gets targeted.

6. In conclusion, we could see a slow motion winter campaign, where we watch Adviivka be very slowly (and expensively) eaten away Bakhmut-style, but where simply holding the Surovikin line saps a majority of Russia's logistics train.

Does this win the war? Nope, unless Russia finally decides it isn't worth it.

Good illustrations of the way Corrosive warfare can still work for Ukraine and, eventually, improve the situation on the ground.

Since the start of the war I've maintained, strongly at times, that the only way Ukraine will truly win this war is if Russia collapses politically.  This year's warfare has unfortunately reinforced my belief, though I was hopeful that Ukraine would have achieved a limited military collapse that would trigger another mobilization which, in turn, would increase the chances of political collapse (eventually, anyway).

Ukraine never has, and never will, have any means of directly contributing to Russia's political collapse except by blowing stuff up.  Initially this meant "killing as many Russians as possible", and Zaluzhnyi just explicitly stated that this was Ukraine's thinking as well.  But we now have the sad realization that the Russian population doesn't care enough for this to matter.  So what to do?  Switch over from killing as many Russians as possible to destroying as much expensive Russian stuff as possible.

For sure Ukraine has been killing big ticket items whenever and wherever it could, so in a sense Ukraine doesn't need to change its strategy that much.  What it needs to change is gauging the cost:benefit of doing ground attacks.  When the goal was to kill as many Russians as possible it made sense to root out defensive lines and push beyond.  Now?  I'm thinking it's not really worth it.  Better to sit back and make their lives miserable instead of suffering friendly casualties trying to kill them.

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Does it create temporary 'bubbles' that UA land forces can work within? that can only be countered with extravagant RU efforts from bases far away (e.g. air and helos, plus exhausted 'quasi-VDV' kampfgruppen scurrying about and getting cluster bombed -- you know, that movement is hazardous thing).  We shall see, I suppose.

P.S.  Does the Russian defensive conundrum on the southern front start to resemble the Wehrmacht's situation in early 1944, with 'denuded fronts', PZ/SS fire brigades and all that?

I think if Ukraine generally stops offensive activity these sorts of opportunities will present themselves and can be taken advantage of.  I think we're seeing that play out on the left bank of the Dnepr at the moment.  We also saw this with Snake Island and more recently the oil rig platforms.  Ukraine has shown itself exceptionally clever and very good at doing focused actions which are always intended to have a limited impact on the overall war.  It's the bigger stuff they've struggled with.

Put another way... Ukraine is very, very, very good at taking small bites and digesting them.  It has only run into problems when it tries to eat the whole meal with a timer counting down.  Go for small bites over a longer period of time and I think we'll see all kinds of interesting developments.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Damned Soviet army sh....t still to kill personnel. 

In honor of Artillery and missile troops Day command of 128th mountain-assault and 65th mech.brigade gathered personnel of these brigades - about 100 men for solemnly awarding reportedly in Zarichne village of Zaporizhzhia oblast. This is about 25 km from frontline. Reportedly Russian Kh-59 missile hit gathering of many people. It's unknown - either they were spotted by UAV or ELINT asset by multiple cell phones signal in one place, or some traitor from locals gave information. 

As result of strike 18KIA, 20 WIA (including three civilians) 

High-rank and mid-rank officers still roughly violate an order of General Staff about debarment of personnel gathering in one place more than platoon size. In their heads Soviet-style rules and "traditions" of "service" with endless alignments, cheking of "journal of journals accounting" still more important than reality of war, good sense and effectiveness. 

More worse, according to the General Staff order, soldiers and officers if they understand that higher command orders about non-combat purpose mass meeteings, which can threat their lives, these orders can and have to be contested. But this is only on paper. In real Soviet tradition "I'm chief - you are foul" still alive. And lower officers and soldiers often afraid to contradict such orders. Beacuse they are in full power of higher officer and can be punished. All "hot lines" of MoD, which should to prevent this rarely work indeed. Because after such call higher command gave an order to make investigation.. by officers of the same brigade from where they got a complaint. Guess who will be fu..d after "investigation"?

By current laws officer can punish own subordinates, who reject to execute his orders. But no any responsibility for officers, whoes stupid decisions lead to death of dozen soldiers. This is maybe highest problem of UKR army, inherited from Soviet army system - absence of repect to subordinaties, considering them as supplies. And really many people in Ukraine now scare to be mobilized in first order because of such Soviet attitude from commanders. 

 

 

Edited November 4, 2023 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

It appears some morronic officer in 128th Mountain wanted to celebrate Ukrainian "Artilleryman Day" in old Soviet style with orders and formal party...except close behind the frontline. Unfortunatelly effects were predicatble. There will be lot of new graves in Carpathia (beware, drastic photos). Pointless and unnecessary deaths.

https://twitter.com/SomeGumul/status/1720825730706129208

Crossposted with Haiduk.

Edited November 4, 2023 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Damned Soviet army sh....t still to kill personnel.

This is terrible and it was completely preventable, but it is more Human than it is Soviet.

In the WW2 battle for Hürtgen Forest an American battalion commander disobeyed direct orders from above and advice of his staff to have a celebration of Thanksgiving Day to improve morale at the frontline.  Soldiers gathered in lines to get their turkey and the German artillery came down on them, decimating the gathering.  Here's a quick reference to it from a different perspective than I had read many years ago:

https://coffeeordie.com/battle-of-hurtgen-forest

It would be nice if the idiot at the 128th that put this disaster into motion lost rank and responsibility.  Maybe that would get the message across that there's a reason to follow orders to not gather together in large numbers.

Steve

 

[Haiduk]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It would be nice if the idiot at the 128th that put this disaster into motion lost rank and responsibility. 

It's crazy, but Ukraine hasn't military justice or wartime military tribunals. All they were canceled by Yanukovich's directive in 2010. And for all this time nothing were turned back. Even establised Military Public Order Service is not equal to Military Police by own functions. 

So, there were and still to be many incidents, when civilian prosecutors and courts conduct cases of militaries from point of view of civilian administartive or criminal code, which not always can be applied to situations in combat zone.  

Edited November 4, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, sross112 said:

Or the good ole RA model of having enough mass to overwhelm, like Bagration style mass. Where there is so much going on that the defender can't address everything and multiple breaks occur leading to collapse. I'm not saying it wouldn't be a bloody awful mess, just that it might be the only way for mass to be viable is a metric shat ton of it all over at once. Or it would be the Somme, hard to tell at this point.

It is REALLY hard to line up the pieces for this if the other side has any deep strike left.

[Haiduk]

UKR has struck "Zaliv" shipyard and docks in Kerch likely with Storm Shadow/SCALP. Despite official information that Russian AD shot down all 12 or 18 missiles (as claimed launched from 2-4 Su-24 !!!!!) and only some fragments fell on shipyard territory, causing "small fire". Locals write they have seen four missiles headig to shipyard (see lower video - good sound of AD work or impacts).

Here is a video, that shows something "not small" burns there. There are rumors this is one of missile four small misile corvettes pr.22800 Karakurt-class, which building there. By other information  small missiles corvette "Askold" (of the same project), which now under tests and in limited service was hit.

 

[Haiduk]

Dnipro city is under heavy ballistic missiles strike. Reportedly six explosions (unknown AD work or impacts), missiels were launched from Dzhankoy, Crimea. Likely ballistic missiles Iskander-M or cruise missiles Iskander-K. 

[Rokko]

7 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

U.S., European officials broach topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine, sources say
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/us-european-officials-broach-topic-peace-negotiations-ukraine-sources-rcna123628

Exhausted and disappointed with allies, Ukraine’s president and military chief warn of long attritional war
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/03/world/ukraine-president-warns-long-attritional-war/index.html

Does anybody else find this infuriating?

Setting aside the possibility that these are just the usual anonymous blabbermouths with their own agenda talking or that this is deliberate disinformation, but wasn't NATO (or the US or whoever) pressuring Ukraine just a couple of weeks ago to abandon their "casualty aversity" and throw everything at Tokmak to achieve a breakthrough? And now Ukraine should be thrown under the bus because they are running out of men? That being said, it does make me uneasy that Ukraine was apparently forced to send a brigade that was heavily involved in the Southern offensive (the 47th) straight into Avdiivka to plug gaps. This does not seem to indicate an abundance of fresh available reserves.

 

 

And to pile on to the pessimism of these days some more, here's Tatarigami_UA criticizing General Syrski for his conduct around Bakhmut, both for holding it during the winter and for trying to retake it during the Summer.

[cesmonkey]

Interesting idea. Put out bids for large quantities of shells to be made to whoever, wherever that can make them.

 

[Zeleban]

5 minutes ago, Rokko said:

And to pile on to the pessimism of these days some more, here's Tatarigami_UA criticizing General Syrski for his conduct around Bakhmut, both for holding it during the winter and for trying to retake it during the Summer.

I have always considered Tatarigami one of the most valuable sources of information about this war. Until I read his statement that Bakhmut did not need to be held, but instead had to retreat to more “advantageous positions.” If it were not for the retention of Bakhmut, then who knows where our positions would be now. Near Slovyansk or to the west of it?

Now the opposition to Zelensky media is promoting the assertion that the reason for the failure of the Zaporozhye offensive lies in the retention of Bakhmut. They say the reserves necessary for the summer offensive were spent there. Based on this logic, in March 2022 we needed to leave Kharkov, Kiev, Chernigov and Sumi. After all, the defense of these cities was also very bloody.

[Haiduk]

Russian TGs confirm small missile corvette "Askold" was hit by Storm Shadow strike in Kerch. Allegedly two missiles hit the ship. Level of damage is unknown. 

"Askold" is representative of newest pr.22800 Karakurt-class corvettes. Series of 16 ships are under building or in service. 6 of them are building in Kerch and Feodosia for Black Sea fleet. One of them - "Cyclone" already in service and "Askold" was under test (but already was involved in patrol missions) and had to be comissioned in this year

pr. 22800 are carriers of 8 Kalibr-NK missiles. 

"Askold" on the photo 

 

Edited November 4, 2023 by Haiduk

[Zeleban]

Many Ukrainians criticize our generals. However, our military leadership is only capable of conducting operations at the level at which it is possible for them

1. Training of their subordinate officers and soldiers.

2 Possibilities for the exchange and processing of information by headquarters

3. And of course, the level of supply with everything necessary

Criticizing leadership is the favorite pastime of the Ukrainian people. There is a funny opinion that fate is unfair to Ukrainians and constantly appoints cunning and self-interested leaders to govern them. But my opinion is that every nation has exactly the leaders it deserves. Ukrainian commanders have exactly the level of competence, material support and communications that they were able to provide during 8 years of preparation for a big war. We have had enough time to carry out reforms...

[dan/california]

Read the whole thread.

[Letter from Prague]

...

Edited November 4, 2023 by Letter from Prague

[Zeleban]

1 minute ago, Letter from Prague said:

Here's your strategic victory - Russia can just take over parts of countries it borders and get away with it with no punishment.

I wonder if NATO will hold when they start doing this with the Baltics. I might read about "Latvia pushed to negotiation table while Estonia fully occupied" in a year or two. Maybe five, Russia is slow.

The key question is whether the people of France and Germany, as well as other NATO countries, will be ready to shed their blood for a long time for these small Baltic countries in the east. It doesn't look like NATO countries are preparing for a major war. Perhaps they hope that it will be possible to reach an agreement with Putin? I know one president who also thought so; his name is Volodymyr Zelensky. And his opinion on this issue has changed dramatically

[Butschi]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

No matter how you examine the details, fundamentally Ukraine has every incentive to keep it going and Russia has just about none other than ego. 

Are you certain about this? For all the strain this war puts on Russian economy I doubt it is very healthy for the Ukrainian economy, either. The longer this goes on, the more effort it will be to rebuild. Ukrainian soldiers who die in this war will not be there to help rebuilding. And the longer the war goes on the the more likely it becomes that refugees have settled in too much in their respective host countries to move back. Even now many Ukrainians over here say that they have no intention of going back. And those host countries will want at least the highly qualified ones to stay (there is a lot of talk about this).

[LongLeftFlank]

12 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Are you certain about this? For all the strain this war puts on Russian economy I doubt it is very healthy for the Ukrainian economy, either. The longer this goes on, the more effort it will be to rebuild. Ukrainian soldiers who die in this war will not be there to help rebuilding. And the longer the war goes on the the more likely it becomes that refugees have settled in too much in their respective host countries to move back. Even now many Ukrainians over here say that they have no intention of going back. And those host countries will want at least the highly qualified ones to stay (there is a lot of talk about this).

There is also this....

But they bought prosperity / Down at the Armoury / We're arming for peace, m'boys / Between the wars

Edited November 4, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Haiduk]

Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) now operates on northern flank of Avdiivka

Interesting, albeit this captive belongs to 114th motor-rifle brigade of DPR, he is from Russia (Kalmyk ethnicity by his name) and was a sergeant of 4th company of 2nd batatlion of this brigade. Also judging on his story he was captured by RDK fighters, when they assaulted DPR positions in slageheap area. Recently there was information UKR troops returned back several positins in that area, likely this is confirmation.  

 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-moscows-shadows/id1510124746?i=1000633691233

The mess at the Dagestani airport is an indication of a loss of state capacity, not a Kremlin plot. There is at least a real possibility that the North Caucuses could become large problem for Putin. As always he brings enormous depth and detail to the subject. it is worth the listen.

 

Edited November 4, 2023 by dan/california

[cesmonkey]

Another video on Ukrainian drone operators: