How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

I keep coming back to the U.S. apparently going ahead with a new manned scout helicopter. That is serious head in the sand denial.

Isn't it meant to be dual control possible,  autonomous and human? 

[Haiduk]

First satellite images of "Askold" misisile corvette before and after strike have appeared.

Decpite Russian TG claimed about 2-3 hits of SCALP missiles at the ship, she didn't look enough damaged, but maybe more quality images will come soon or photos from the ground.

Image of 31st of October

And 5th of October

[Kinophile]

7 hours ago, The_Capt said:

 

My money is that Russians will get sick of dying in another country well before Ukrainians get tired of dying for theirs.  Question is when?

Isn't it really about which Russians are dying, not how many,  no?

And it's not even all Russians, Putler is increasing his margin with as many non-Russians,  welfare-level Russians and convicts as possible.

In any revolutionary movement you need educated classes involved to rise above mere reactive,  disjointed rioting. So long as the Russian middle class is relatively unaffected then Putin can fight for as long as he wants.

There will always be more immigrants, non-Russiabs, zeks and trailer-trash equivalent to chuck into the mincing machine. 

 

Edited November 5, 2023 by Kinophile

[Haiduk]

10 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

So long as the Russian middle class is relatively unaffected then Putin can fight for

Russian middle class is mostly completely indifferent. They prefer to "relocate" than to do something in Russia.

[dan/california]

40 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Isn't it meant to be dual control possible,  autonomous and human? 

Still a many multi million dollar piece of kit that is supposed to fly low. I am profoundly unconvinced that makes any sense.

Edited November 5, 2023 by dan/california

[The_Capt]

52 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

There will always be more immigrants, non-Russiabs, zeks and trailer-trash equivalent to chuck into the mincing machine. 

Well then there is “you get what you paid for”.  I am sure Putin can keep stuffing the front with convicts, immigrants and trailer trash but he is not going to get anything resembling a professional military out of them.  Which means they can dig in, try to hold on and die.  Or advance, get no where and die.  The RA is done as an operationally offensive force once the bulk of its forces are made up of bullet catchers.  Even if he manages to keep “elite” forces in reserve there is no way to sustain them.  He can forget retaking anything significant and can only keep spending silly amounts of money as these meat puppets start driving his tanks and IFVs.

Quality people matter and in that regard Russia is losing this aspect of the material war badly.  Apparently dumb low quality mass still works if you throw enough minefields in front of them but that is about it.

[poesel]

8 hours ago, hcrof said:

Why can't we do both? Build up a scalable national capacity but when we need to surge production to cover a crisis we outsource. 

We need shells in a hurry now, but hopefully won't in 10 years time. 

Because that is not how it works. Suppliers want contracts before they set up a production line. It takes at least a year (if you rush it) and 50 mil (a guess) per line. No one is going to invest that if they are not sure if they can sell their product.

Such a production line is not really dual use. No civilian use without mayor retooling. You could mothball it, but then you still have sunk the investment costs for a war that never came. Scalability costs money.

If the crisis comes, and you want to outsource, you need to find someone with free capacities. Difficult and costly in a crisis. And if there is no free capacity, 'they' also need time to build that. Outsourcing is not a magic wand. Well, maybe a cursed one...

 

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, poesel said:

Because that is not how it works. Suppliers want contracts before they set up a production line. It takes at least a year (if you rush it) and 50 mil (a guess) per line. No one is going to invest that if they are not sure if they can sell their product.

Such a production line is not really dual use. No civilian use without mayor retooling. You could mothball it, but then you still have sunk the investment costs for a war that never came. Scalability costs money.

If the crisis comes, and you want to outsource, you need to find someone with free capacities. Difficult and costly in a crisis. And if there is no free capacity, 'they' also need time to build that. Outsourcing is not a magic wand. Well, maybe a cursed one...

 

Nato needs the capacity to build at least three or four hundred thousand shells per month, and it needs SEVERAL tens of millions of shells in reserve. If those shells expire quietly in a warehouse i thirty or forty years they have done their job perfectly. it isn't THAT much money relative to the overall defense budget. People are just afraid of an add accusing them of buying to many shells and wasting money. We are AT LEAST twenty or thirty million shells short of that being an issue.

[hcrof]

5 minutes ago, poesel said:

Because that is not how it works. Suppliers want contracts before they set up a production line. It takes at least a year (if you rush it) and 50 mil (a guess) per line. No one is going to invest that if they are not sure if they can sell their product.

Such a production line is not really dual use. No civilian use without mayor retooling. You could mothball it, but then you still have sunk the investment costs for a war that never came. Scalability costs money.

If the crisis comes, and you want to outsource, you need to find someone with free capacities. Difficult and costly in a crisis. And if there is no free capacity, 'they' also need time to build that. Outsourcing is not a magic wand. Well, maybe a cursed one...

 

I am not proposing Outsourcing everything, I am trying to solve the scalability problem. Right now the Ukraine war demands maybe 5-10x the pre-war level of production but if we build that then we will have a lot of expensive unused capacity when the shooting stops. Instead we tool up for 2-3x prewar production (in expensive western countries) and buy the rest cheaply on the open market. 

The logic is that the west theoretically doesn't need all that ammo for itself because of the USAF so why tool up for capacity you won't need?

[poesel]

4 minutes ago, hcrof said:

I am not proposing Outsourcing everything, I am trying to solve the scalability problem. Right now the Ukraine war demands maybe 5-10x the pre-war level of production but if we build that then we will have a lot of expensive unused capacity when the shooting stops. Instead we tool up for 2-3x prewar production (in expensive western countries) and buy the rest cheaply on the open market. 

The logic is that the west theoretically doesn't need all that ammo for itself because of the USAF so why tool up for capacity you won't need?

Producing ammo is not labor-intensive. What you need is machines and material. That costs (roughly) the same everywhere. The main advantage (for the manufacturer) to produce 'somewhere else' is, that the export restrictions may be lower than in the west.

Also, there is no open market for artillery shells. You cannot produce that without state influence. You cannot sell without state influence. You cannot buy without state influence.
That makes things complicated in case of crisis.
Case in point: Germany couldn't deliver Gepard ammo to Ukraine because it was produced in Switzerland. 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russians issued a video of strike on Zarichne village were award сeremony of 128th and partially 65th brigades had to be. All, what could be violated was violated:

- mass gathering in the village, close to frontline

- no security mesures - among settlers could be Russian informators

- soldiers parked own pick-ups directly near the place of ceremony

- no AD cover, Russian drone was circling free around, spotting the best moment for strike.

Some sources claims this was not Kh-59m but Iskander-M or Iskander-K

As result 28 killed, 53 wounded. Among killed - one of best and experienced artilleriman of AFU captain Dmytro Myliutyn, who fought since 2014 and passed Debaltseve.

This episode could be remained "unseen" like many others, like a strike of Tornado-G at 77th air-assualt brigade during their alignment in close rear of Bakhmut about two months ago. But several soldiers, who "dare" to take it to the public and spreading this information by known volunteers, forced authrities to move their as....s. Minister of Defense Umerov ordered to establish a commitee to investigate this incident and president Zelenskiy today made a statement that "Sovietism" and stupid soviet bureacracy in army have to be eliminated. It's too bad nobody knows how to do this if as soldiers say among 30-year old officers  and even younger alot of idiots with Soviet-style command and "old good traditions" how to fu....k personnel. 

 

I heard this story on the radio today multiple times on BBC and NPR.  It is unusual for something like this to make it onto the radio, but especially with all that is going on with the Middle East these days.  A couple of the reports were quick headline summaries, but one involved a little more than that with a reporter talking about (basically) how foolish the gathering was.  Reporters aren't supposed to be judgemental, but they can sure present the facts in a way that does seem to be judging!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

At Kharkiv it was Light forces that led the breakout while heavy shored up the shoulders.  This year we have watched both sides try larger armored heavy offensives and failed.  Why do we suppose that is happening?  The standard answer from the conservative camp is "well the Ukrainians and Russians are doing it wrong"...after nearly two years?

I think the real answer is both sides are desperate to make a dramatic advance, but that doesn't seem possible with light forces against solid defenses.  So both sides thought "well, maybe if we tweak a few things it will work this time".  Clearly Ukraine was encouraged by the West and, to everybody's credit, they did a MUCH better job than the Russians have.  They attacked some of the strongest defenses since WW2 and made at least some progress.  They also suffered far lower casualties before reverting to small light infantry actions.  However, it wasn't successful in the way it was hoped for.

What we're all waiting to see is someone figuring out how to quickly take a large amount of territory against an organized defense.  Nobody has done managed to do that yet.

Steve

[JonS]

41 minutes ago, hcrof said:

the open market. 

"The open market"? For 155mm HE rounds?

Wut?

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

What we're all waiting to see is someone figuring out how to quickly take a large amount of territory against an organized defense.  Nobody has done managed to do that yet.

Steve

The caveat of course being the lack of even air parity or consistent denial for the Ukrainians, even while keeping the RUS air back (to a certain degree). 

A very different game next year,  I'll bet,  if F16s are in play. Not saying they are wunderwaffe or war winnerz  but tens of F16s would have a far greater supportive and combinative effect than the dribs and drabs the UAF has been able to toss forward. Nor am I say This Was The Reason for the Offensive stalling out -  but it sure didn't help and we noted the problem very early, as obviously the ZSU did.

But needs must... 

Edited November 6, 2023 by Kinophile

[Twisk]

I often wonder what Ukraine's summer offensive would have looked like had the U.S. had given them ~60 Abrams in time to be used along with a guarantee of another ~60 this winter.  Essentially Ukraine found its armor pushes to be not worth the cost but part of that cost is that, I think, they are barely keeping their head above water when it comes to equipment. So they can't burn 100 tanks to gain some terrain. If they did that they'd very quickly outstrip their ability to get replacement vehicles.

But a constant surefire stream of new equipment creates a situation where Ukraine can expend their equipment with the guarantee that they won't be left in the lurch. Whereas all of these donatives results in a starvation diet for Ukraine where they have 31 Abrams and if two get knocked out they now have 29 and will have 29 for the foreseeable future.

 

Obviously from a procurement standpoint tanks need a rethink or a solution. Because relatively cheap kamikaze drones can knock them out. However, the wasted expense on the production level is different than their actual utility. Tanks are still something to be reckoned with and a lot of tanks add up. Ukraine having the capability of throwing two tank battalions towards Tokmak might result in two destroyed tank battalions but from a Ukrainian perspective thats okay as long as they damage Russian defenses and can be replaced.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Twisk said:

I often wonder what Ukraine's summer offensive would have looked like had the U.S. had given them ~60 Abrams in time to be used along with a guarantee of another ~60 this winter.  Essentially Ukraine found its armor pushes to be not worth the cost but part of that cost is that, I think, they are barely keeping their head above water when it comes to equipment. So they can't burn 100 tanks to gain some terrain. If they did that they'd very quickly outstrip their ability to get replacement vehicles.

But a constant surefire stream of new equipment creates a situation where Ukraine can expend their equipment with the guarantee that they won't be left in the lurch. Whereas all of these donatives results in a starvation diet for Ukraine where they have 31 Abrams and if two get knocked out they now have 29 and will have 29 for the foreseeable future.

 

Obviously from a procurement standpoint tanks need a rethink or a solution. Because relatively cheap kamikaze drones can knock them out. However, the wasted expense on the production level is different than their actual utility. Tanks are still something to be reckoned with and a lot of tanks add up. Ukraine having the capability of throwing two tank battalions towards Tokmak might result in two destroyed tank battalions but from a Ukrainian perspective thats okay as long as they damage Russian defenses and can be replaced.

Not sure it would have made a decisive difference.  It isn’t the weight of armour, it is being able to breach high density minefields 500m across while under the eyes of UAS, ATGM, tac aviation and artillery.  Even as beat up as the RA is it is a pretty low bar to detect, hit and kill the lead breaching vehicles with the levels of ISR on display.

Maybe the UA could have tried more breach lanes but I just don’t see how they could get through all three belts with more tanks when the lead ones get taken out.  Once those minefields were in place it raised the difficulty of offensive operations for the UA dramatically.  Further is requires conditions that they are unable to create - it may require conditions no modern military can create at the moment.

I am loathe to give the RA credit but Bakhmut may have been largely diversionary to allow for the creation of all these minefields.  It pulled a lot of UA attention away to deal with while the RA built the defensive belts.  It was one helluva expensive diversionary operation but it may have succeeded in that the UA summer-fall offensive was blunted.  The only counter-point to this is the fact that the RA had not a very great track record of operational synchronization prior to this.

[chrisl]

The Abrams would have each needed to come towing a train of MICLICs to deal with the minefields.  Otherwise it would have just been a bunch of detracked Abrams getting towed back alongside the Bradleys.

The small, low flying helicopters noted a few posts back might arguably be more effective than tanks for a mechanized attack. They sort of approximate landspeeders in being able to move rapidly over any terrain without being close enough to the ground to set of magnetic or pressure sensitive AT mines.

[akd]

HEAT vs BMP-1 (probably ATGM):

 

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, chrisl said:

The Abrams would have each needed to come towing a train of MICLICs to deal with the minefields.  Otherwise it would have just been a bunch of detracked Abrams getting towed back alongside the Bradleys.

The small, low flying helicopters noted a few posts back might arguably be more effective than tanks for a mechanized attack. They sort of approximate landspeeders in being able to move rapidly over any terrain without being close enough to the ground to set of magnetic or pressure sensitive AT mines.

Obviously current minefield technology can not do squat against something that isn't touching the ground with enough PSI to trigger them.  As The_Capt has pointed out quite a few times now, there's an endless variety of things that can be done to change this equation.  Not just things in the future, but right now.

For example, claymores can be set slightly skyward and triggered either manually or by a tripwire strung at landspeeder height.

However, not being constrained to lanes would be a game changer.  The defender could still identify the most vulnerable paths the attacker might take and bulk up its conventional defenses (large caliber MGs and ATGMs for starters).  But once the attacker committed to the battle they could advance in as many columns as they want.  Heck, they could advance abreast if they chose to.  That then starts to look a lot more like a traditional mobile attack on a non-mined defensive location.

Steve

 

 

[Carolus]

My uneducated opinion: range

Range is what keeps you safe. Range is what let's you reach the enemy without being reached yourself.

Russians have already complained in blogs that Western artillery outranges theirs, and has a smaller CEP to boot.

This will only get better as the West is working on longer barrels and newer projectiles. And based on how scared Russians are of clusters, I would put some new version of that on the table as well, if only for the psychological effect. 

The problem here is cost of manufacturing per shell, because you will need a lot to achieve this  "fire umbrella" with artillery, even when you go only for spotted targets. A mix of PGM and conventional will likely keep the cost reasonable.

But a dense minefield with trenches will be much less scary once every support element 40km to its rear has been shot to pieces.

The group of hunkered down Russians still has ATGMs and will score one or two vehicles, but if they fire once, the ca. 5 to 15 drones that should be in the air over the trench that is to be breached can take care of that. While they hide in their dugout in order to not catch a handgrenade from the sky, a single lane through the mines can be slowly cleared and later expanded when the position is taken. 

So, long range spotting and lots of long-range fire. There is no system that can stop a volley of 155mm in the air (yet). And firing it comes with comparatively low risk for your assets, if you have some computer aided BOFORs to keep the Lancets away.

Edited November 6, 2023 by Carolus

[hcrof]

9 hours ago, JonS said:

"The open market"? For 155mm HE rounds?

Wut?

If Germany put out a tender tomorrow (for example) then companies from South Korea, Poland, Brazil, Pakistan, Bulgaria and more would be happy to give a price. If the order was big enough then that might persuade certain other Asian countries to tool up as well.

If you are after 105mm HE or mortar rounds then you can expand that list considerably. 

[Sgt Joch]

Well, 30-60-90 Abrams while nice would not be a “magic bullet”. As we know from CM and other conflicts, they can be immobilized by say mines and can be killed by ATGMs, direct tank fire to sides/rear. Even if they do manage to break through Russian lines, if they are alone because infantry is pinned by artillery fire, they will eventually have to fall back.

As the Germans found out at Kursk, “Uber” tanks alone do not guarantee victory.

[Kraft]

First picture of the M1A1 in Ukraine (as far as I am aware)

I hope they get enough time to put up anti drone cages.

Edited November 6, 2023 by Kraft

[Kraft]

Quote

1. The enemy continues to strengthen its group in the Avdeevsky direction. In particular, 2 days ago he completed the movement of the 239th tank regiment (tp) from the 90th tank division (td) to this direction; from now on, at least 2 tank regiments of this division are operating near Avdievka.

In general, his command continues to implement its plan to encircle the Avdiivka defense area of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In particular, 1.5 days ago, the troops subordinate to him carried out a series of attack and assault operations in this direction...

East of the village of Stepnoe, the forward units of the 114th separate motorized rifle brigade (OMSBR) of the 1st Army Corps (AK) of the enemy, with the support of units of its 15th OMSBR of the 2nd Combined Arms Army (OVA) attacked the forward positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the direction of this .P. - were successful, ousted our units from one VP (platoon stronghold)

In the direction of "koksokhim" units of the enemy's 132nd (1st AK) and 21st Omsbr (2nd OVA) attacked - the fighting is still ongoing... but, obviously, they have already taken a landing behind the railway near the northern part plant.

In the direction of Kashtanovo - "Vineyards" and towards the "Tsarskaya Okhota" units of the 1st Omsbr (1st AK) attacked, with the support of units of the 55th Omsbr (41st OVA) of the enemy, combat operations in this area are still ongoing .

In the direction Vodyanoye - “9th Quarter” (Avdeevka), with the forces of the same 1st and 55th Infantry Motorized Rifles, the enemy tried to reach the rear of our units defending in the area of the village of Opytnoye - to no avail.

In the directions Vodyanoye - Tonenkoye and Peski - Pervomaiskoye, units of the 9th separate brigade of the Marine Corps (1st AK) attacked - unsuccessfully for themselves.

In the sense of supporting and ensuring active offensive operations in the Avdeevsky direction, the enemy command also organized and carried out a number of attack actions in neighboring directions and sectors, in particular...

From the Stepnoe (lower) - Taramchuk line, units of the 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade (68th AK) attacked the forward positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces units in the direction of the village of Novomikhailovka - to no avail.

In the direction Marinka - Georgievka, units of the 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st AK) with the participation of units of the 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (MSR) of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division (MSD) of the 8th OVA of the enemy tried once again to “finally take Marinka - unsuccessfully ...

 

Thus, taking into account that the enemy does not stop his attempts to attack (without, obviously, reducing the volume of his forces and means that he attracts to participate in these attacks), and also that he continues to strengthen his group in the Avdeevsky direction, it is quite possible to come to the conclusion that his command has not yet abandoned the implementation of its plans (plan) in the Avdeevsky direction.

 

By the way, about the state of the additional forces and assets that the enemy is moving to this direction - we are talking about the very 239th Tank Tank of the 90th Tank Division.

And what do we see...?

- personnel - 1589 military personnel

- tanks - 32 units (this is 34% of the staff strength)

- armored combat vehicles (AFV) – 20 units (accounts for 65% of the staff strength)

- artillery systems – 13 units (54% of the “staff”)

The regiment's command post (CP) is deployed in the area of the village. Korsun (this is the Gorlovsky district of the Donetsk region).

In essence, this “tank regiment”, in terms of the number of main weapons and military equipment available, is a tank battalion, reinforced by two motorized rifle companies and an artillery battalion. As they say - “not a lot”...

By and large, it should be taken away for “restoration and replenishment”, and not prepared for entry into battle to attack the prepared defenses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine... But the enemy command, obviously, did not bring it from the Liman direction near Avdeevka so that it "chilled in the rear"

What does this indicate...? At least a few things...

– Avdeevka, obviously, continues to be a “priority” for the Russian command

- Everything that is “living” is already being dragged there from directions that can still “wait” a little.

- At the same time, the enemy no longer takes into account the real state and level of combat capability of its brigade/regiment level formations... and begins to operate in the area of increasing efforts not with units and formations, but in fact - with individual units... Although they continue to be officially called regiments , brigades and even divisions.

 

[Haiduk]

One more Russian armored assaults of 10th of October on northern flank of Avdiivka in Krasnohorivka area. Video of UAV unit "Lehit" of 3rd battalion of 129th TD brigade of Kryvyi Rih city.

On 2:18 wounded Russian soldier falls down from BTR and through several seconds other retreating BTR runs over him

 

Edited November 6, 2023 by Haiduk