How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

14 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

but apparently your position is that we are in this in order to exterminate your "eternal enemy"

I said your position is not killing enough Russians, but weakening and punishing Russia to restore an world order and to get a profit after all - for example to force Russia after peace agreement to hand over a part in Gazprom or Rosneft, why not?

But defeat of "ethernal enemy" with your situative support is O U R position. Maybe I express wrong if you attribute to me say that I didn't say.   

[Haiduk]

29 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

All I want for (the real) Thanksgiving, is a River Crossing Assault to break the left flank!

Russians so far more than two weeks have been conducting massive bomb strikes on right bank from Kherson and southward. Now this already not single jets, but groups of 2-3 planes, which throw gliding bombs somewhere over Chaplynka. I can't imagine a mass landing in such conditions, when crossings will be elimintaed almost after their laying. 

Edited October 8, 2023 by Haiduk

[kimbosbread]

17 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Nobody will oppose Trump when he (just) cancels all aid to Ukraine, his voters want it.

Note just his voters, unfortunately. Support for Ukraine is decreasing fast on all sides in the US for a variety of reasons.

What can Ukraine do? Militarily, they need to win a big victory. Hopefully there will be a breakthrough, or a river crossing with Zelensky on Christmas or something that will capture the rather short attention of the American people.

Diplomatically, I think they should ambush the right with Zelensky showing up in Jerusalem side by side with Netanyahu, vowing to fight back against terrorists and genocidal maniacs. Get Israel to go all in on Ukraine. This might cause problems with some of the Muslims fighting on the Ukraine side, but I don’t know if there’s a better way to break into the right’s headspace. India would be great too, but they really love that cheap Russian gas.

On the tech and weapons side, swarms of loitering munitions, autonomous, that hunt anything that moves along the fortification lines, or trucks, or artillery. Crank these things out by the 1000s, and Russia won’t be able to exist near the front lines. This is presumably in progress already.

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

25 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Of course we want Russia to get back in the box.  Hell we want them back in the G7 and selling all that cheap gas.  We want the global order back because it was a lot more peaceful and profitable than whatever this is turning into.  We want Putin and enough of his ilk gone, but apparently your position is that we are in this in order to exterminate your "eternal enemy". 

I would argue that this ship has sailed. Russia is now in a way in the same position as Germany was after WW2, the enemy who had been defeated once and it was not enough. It is logical, that the US and its allies now see the need for a more final solution of the problem and the return of status quo ante is not it. E.g most of the countries are weening off the Russian gas and oil, which alone counts as a major paradigm shift - could Russian economy actually warrant G7 membership in the absence of income from energy sales?. Also, the US are preparing for the war with China and second front in Europe is not a desired option. 

So, to me it is logical to assume that the US and its allies are helping Ukraine not because it is moral to do so, but because they want to take Russia down this time not a peg, but half a ladder. A nation, which thinks it ought to have a higher place in the world order is effectively enemy of everyone who is reasonably happy in the current set up - to state the obvious, look at Germany 1900-1945. Haiduk correctly refers to the contrary example of Georgia in 2008. I would add Ukraine in 2014. Not much difference in the moral position, but no reaction from the West. What has happened since then? Munich effect - realisation that Russia breaks its promises and there is no appraising it at reasonable cost.

Why specifically Canada supports Ukraine, I cannot tell and you are obviously much better placed to know this, so if you are saying it is for moral reasons, then I won't argue too much. But I will not refrain from pointing out, that neither in the Ossetia war nor in 2014 Ukraine was Canada was engaged to the same extent.

 

 

[Haiduk]

7 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

This might cause problems with some of the Muslims fighting on the Ukraine side

No. Ironically, but now we have a Jew as a president and Muslim as minister of defense.

I can't find this photo - the Jew and Muslim, who serve in one platoon celebrates Orthodox Easter %) When you under death each day and fight for own common land, all differences have gone to background. 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

I can't find this photo - the Jew and Muslim, who serve in one platoon celebrates Orthodox Easter %) When you under death each day and fight for own common land, all differences have gone to background. 

In Eastern Europe the Muslim population is mostly descended from Tatar (ex-Golden Horde) Muslims. At least our Muslims have never shown any sympathy for the Arabs or Talibs during the Great War on Terror.

[Letter from Prague]

4 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

In Eastern Europe the Muslim population is mostly descended from Tatar (ex-Golden Horde) Muslims. At least our Muslims have never shown any sympathy for the Arabs or Talibs during the Great War on Terror.

Yeah, and in places where the "original European Muslims" and Arabs meet (like Bosnia), there's usually friction. Arabs have their way of doing things, the locals often don't agree.

[LongLeftFlank]

55 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

All I want for (the real) Thanksgiving, is a River Crossing Assault to break the left flank!

 

 

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

In Eastern Europe the Muslim population is mostly descended from Tatar (ex-Golden Horde) Muslims. At least our Muslims have never shown any sympathy for the Arabs or Talibs during the Great War on Terror.

Except Tatars we have communities of Chechens (who esacped in 90th) and Azerbajanians

[Harmon Rabb]

Edit: Never mind this should be asked on the Israeli war thread not this one.

 

Edited October 8, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Astrophel]

1 hour ago, Kraft said:

I sometimes see the argument about a fringe minority in the Republican Party taking the reigns.

Nobody will oppose Trump when he (just) cancels all aid to Ukraine, his voters want it.

By now I would have thought YouGov is at least a tad discredited.  It was co-founded by the discredited Zahawi - a Brexiteer pur sang.  Disturbingly it has now taken over GfK which was a trusted brand in consumer markets.  Personally I do NOT trust their polls in the slightest - they are from the school of having polls influence opinion rather than reflect opinion.

[akd]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

But then I spotted some short horizontal movement behind the tree like a missile.

 

Yes, ATGM in level flight enters lower left frame just before detonation. Probably struck hull side.

[poesel]

1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

I would argue that this ship has sailed. Russia is now in a way in the same position as Germany was after WW2, the enemy who had been defeated once and it was not enough.

...

A nation, which thinks it ought to have a higher place in the world order is effectively enemy of everyone who is reasonably happy in the current set up - to state the obvious, look at Germany 1900-1945.

I guess (hope) you mean: ... after WW1.

And in the second paragraph: ...1918-1945. Before WW1 Germany was not so much different to the other nations in Europe wrt world order.

 

Edited October 8, 2023 by poesel

[cesmonkey]

I'm guessing that when Ukraine says they successfully repelled X number of attacks by the Russians, they may have omitted Y number of attacks that they didn't repel?

Notice how they describe the Bakhmut  and Adviivka sectors differently from other sectors.

https://t.me/operativnoZSU/118164
 

Quote

In the Kupyan direction, our defenders repelled 3 enemy attacks near Synkivka and Ivanivka, Kharkiv region.

In the Lyman direction, the Defense Forces repelled 4 enemy attacks in the Makiivka area of the Luhansk region.

In the Bakhmut direction, during the day, Ukrainian soldiers successfully repelled all enemy attacks north of Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.

In the Avdiivka direction, the Defense Forces repelled all enemy attacks in the Avdiivka area of the Donetsk region.

 

[Kraft]

1 hour ago, Astrophel said:

By now I would have thought YouGov is at least a tad discredited.  It was co-founded by the discredited Zahawi - a Brexiteer pur sang.  Disturbingly it has now taken over GfK which was a trusted brand in consumer markets.  Personally I do NOT trust their polls in the slightest - they are from the school of having polls influence opinion rather than reflect opinion.

I did not know this

[Haiduk]

56 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

I'm guessing that when Ukraine says they successfully repelled X number of attacks by the Russians, they may have omitted Y number of attacks that they didn't repel?

Yes. Like it was during Russian offensive from Popasna to Bakhmut. "Our troops today repelled attacks near villages A and B", then since some days "our troops today repelled attacks near villages C and D" (and these villages already in some km to west)

During last days Russians had advance in Makiivka area (Lyman direction), Marfopil' (Polohy direction) and Krasnohorivka (northern flank of Avdiivka direction)

Edited October 8, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

8 hours ago, Yet said:

one-and-done as in.. this is the last you get, good luck. or as in this is all you would ever need to surely achieve all goals?

What would such a package have to consist?

Enough money to get Ukraine through the U.S.Presidential Election. 

[Haiduk]

In last week or more Ukrianian troops on Tokmak direction try to expand own right flank toward Kopani village. If in previous days they tried to advance west from Ronotyne, repelling Russian 76th air-assault division attacks, that now accents were shifted to attacks almost from the strart line of offensive in June. For last two days UKR troops could advance N - NE from Kopani

 

Unofficial TG of 46th air-assault brigade:

Nesterianka - Kopani area is orc stronghold located along heights from one village to other. Very suitable defense area for them and very inconvenient for us. 

In Kopani area orcs established two strongpoints - one NE from the village, other - SE and this made useless any atempts to assault these directions. 

But we unvealed weak points in enemy defense points north from Kopani and we conducted heavy fights for them since the night on 6th of October. We could seize small locations between these villages, but no one side can't push off each other completely, so clashes continuing.

 

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

 

Diplomatically, I think they should ambush the right with Zelensky showing up in Jerusalem side by side with Netanyahu, vowing to fight back against terrorists and genocidal maniacs. Get Israel to go all in on Ukraine. This might cause problems with some of the Muslims fighting on the Ukraine side, but I don’t know if there’s a better way to break into the right’s headspace. India would be great too, but they really love that cheap Russian gas.

 

Yes, this! Ukraine has a golden opportunity to seize the diplomatic/and political high ground by being far more generous to Israel, than Israel has been to Ukraine.

[Haiduk]

71st jager air-assault brigade hit Russian infantry with DPCIM, mortar fire and FPV drone. Likely Verbove area.

 

[dan/california]

 

8 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russians still advance in grey zone toward Makiivka on Lyman direction

Though, their advance is not parade march. 66th mech.brigade claims, only their ATGM company hit 25 tanks for 4 days. I can't verify this, but two days ago there were two photosets of dozen destroyed and abandoned armor on this direction, so even though 25 is exaggregation, that it not large. 

New video from this direction - Russian T-90A (M?) attacks UKR position. At 0:09 probably first ATGM hit the tank, but likely ERA activated. Crew actively uses black smoke and "Shtora" ATGM countermeasure system (this white expolsion in the air) and conducts fire at UKR position, but looks like this hadn't effect against Stugna-P or TOW and ememy tank was coocked off

  

 

They came on in the same old way, and we sent them back in the same old way."
The Duke of Wellingtons tactical summary would seem to apply here.

[Letter from Prague]

New perun, talking about the counteroffensive

 

[Haiduk]

In today's interview with GUR "Artan" unit fighter "Shaman" and C.Budanov, chief of GUR they in first time confirmed that GUR special forces tried three times to recapture Enerhodar nuclear plant, but all attempts failed. 

In first time only several dozens of GUR fighters landed on oppose bank of Dnipro, but after half day of fight they were forced to reterat

In second and third time already several hundreds of GUR forces tried to establish bridgehead to expand it and give opportunity to move there mechanized units to liberate the plant and city. In last attempt fighters of Foreign Legion participated, particularly New Zelanders, who had training to be in the water long time. During the third attempt Russians brought tanks directly to the river and UKR troops were forced to withdraw again.

C.Budanov pointed out all operations failed because of lack of experiense and fast interaction in such operations, also lack of artillery support and lack of proper control.

But even these failed operations thwarted intentions of Russia to plug nuclear plant in Russian power grid. Also these landings give experience, which later was used during seizing of gas rigs in Black Sea and landing on Tarhankut cape. 

 

Edited October 8, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Astrophel said:

By now I would have thought YouGov is at least a tad discredited.  It was co-founded by the discredited Zahawi - a Brexiteer pur sang.  Disturbingly it has now taken over GfK which was a trusted brand in consumer markets.  Personally I do NOT trust their polls in the slightest - they are from the school of having polls influence opinion rather than reflect opinion.

Polling generally is more or less broken. The response rate is so slow the statistical violence performed on the raw data makes it almost meaningless. An 80 twenty result with a LARGE sample size might mean something, anything less thn that is just cheap filler for content generation.

Edited October 8, 2023 by dan/california

[Kraft]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

71st jager air-assault brigade hit Russian infantry with DPCIM, mortar fire and FPV drone. Likely Verbove area.

 

I think this footage is a month old atleast