How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Clear indication of a Canadian conspiracy to get into bed with Russia...

https://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/799271/ottawa-accuse-aider-contourner-sanctions-contre-russie

Canadian government permited to several companies to bypass sanctions and trade with Russia (In French). Canada bought tires, bamboo boards and aviation equipment on 12 millions CAD. Real politic. 

Edited October 7, 2023 by Haiduk

[Simcoe]

Let's talk tactics. How is each side attacking and defending at the small unit level? Where are they similar and where do they differ.

This is my analysis so far.
 

Russians:
 

In defense they are more willing to use quality troops to hold trenches but they will retreat to secondary positions in the event of a determined attack and counterattack to retake it. This means the defense is more capable against armor and more flexible but there's only so many quality units to go around.

In the attack they seem to have adapted recently. They are very careful and use overwhelming artillery and more recently air power to saturate the defense before sending small groups of infantry and later motorized units to finish the job.

Ukrainians:

In the defense they are more willing to hold every inch of ground. Less likely to use quality units to hold trenches.

In the attack dispersion is king. Small groups of infantry move through whatever cover is available and once enough troops are at point of contact they will attack after a short artillery preparation. Much more importance is given to counterbattery to negate the Russians advantage in artillery.

Any other opinions? Am I wrong? 

[Kraft]

Battle for Petropavlivka by the International Legion.

 

[Haiduk]

36 minutes ago, Simcoe said:

Let's talk tactics. How is each side attacking and defending at the small unit level? Where are they similar and where do they differ.

This is my analysis so far.
 

Russians:
 

In defense they are more willing to use quality troops to hold trenches but they will retreat to secondary positions in the event of a determined attack and counterattack to retake it. This means the defense is more capable against armor and more flexible but there's only so many quality units to go around.

In the attack they seem to have adapted recently. They are very careful and use overwhelming artillery and more recently air power to saturate the defense before sending small groups of infantry and later motorized units to finish the job.

Ukrainians:

In the defense they are more willing to hold every inch of ground. Less likely to use quality units to hold trenches.

In the attack dispersion is king. Small groups of infantry move through whatever cover is available and once enough troops are at point of contact they will attack after a short artillery preparation. Much more importance is given to counterbattery to negate the Russians advantage in artillery.

Any other opinions? Am I wrong? 

In this thread known UKR serviceman Serhiy Solon'ko, who now on Zaporizhzia front criticizes NYT article about Russian "elastic defense" tactic, which authors give like new invention. He says all what "experts" of NYT wrote is complete BS and they have no idea what's goung on here. (I hope Tatarigami soon translate it, but you can do it via Google)

So, he says this is Russians in defense fight for each inch, because they (I just add "their command") very painfully perceives any loss of territory, even this is tree-line.  

Edited October 7, 2023 by Haiduk

[cesmonkey]

Here is the side arguing for more aid to Ukraine weighing in the Hamas-Israeli conflict
 

https://www.republicanleader.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/mcconnell-statement-on-terrorist-violence-against-israel

[danfrodo]

10 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Here is the side arguing for more aid to Ukraine weighing in the Hamas-Israeli conflict
 

https://www.republicanleader.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/mcconnell-statement-on-terrorist-violence-against-israel

good lord, the conflation begins.  Where completely separate things are falsely tied together for some benefit to the person saying it.  Like 9-11 and saddam hussein.  

But on a more UKR centric point, related to the tactics post above.  It seems RU digs in and  fights for every meter of tree line and can generate plenty of ~untrained mobiks to man the dugouts.  UKR is RU attriting men, material, and vehicles at a high rate but just the slow grind of digging rats out of holes is soooooo slow.  A whole summer campaign season and they've moved ~15-20km at best.  The pace has picked up a little but really this whole thing is still looking like RU made a pretty good bet on their defenses.  

I am not calling it defeat or failure, but it does say this is gonna take a long time.  And over time anything can happen.  bad things or good things.

[Simcoe]

22 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

In this thread known UKR serviceman Serhiy Solon'ko, who now on Zaporizhzia front criticizes NYT article about Russian "elastic defense" tactic, which authors give like new invention. He says all what "experts" of NYT wrote is complete BS and they have no idea what's goung on here. (I hope Tatarigami soon translate it, but you can do it via Google)

So, he says this is Russians in defense fight for each inch, because they (I just add "their command") very painfully perceives any loss of territory, even this is tree-line.  

Thanks for sharing. How much of this depends on unit and circumstance? I've heard from foreign volunteers that the Russians never want to fight and others that they hold to the last man.

 

What about on the Ukrainian side. Was my analysis correct? Are there any other nuances I'm missing?

[dan/california]

25 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Here is the side arguing for more aid to Ukraine weighing in the Hamas-Israeli conflict
 

https://www.republicanleader.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/mcconnell-statement-on-terrorist-violence-against-israel

Now start increasing munitions production by a factor of at least ten, on top anything already under way. China is already violating Taiwan's air and sea space in every way possible short of war. The general level of chaos might convince Xi now, or soon, is the time to go for it while there are just too many fires happening at once. Nobody thought Putin was this crazy either.

Edit: We have let Ukraine go to long, hoping for that perfect, low risk negotiated position. The old red gods may have have a different plan.

Edited October 7, 2023 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

https://inforesist.org/ua/zmi-pokazali-video-roboti-ukrainskih-speczsluzhb-povagnerivczyam-ta-ihnim-soyuznikam-v-africzi/

In this article is a new video of allegedly UKR GUR personnel involved in actions in Sudan against pro-Wagner RSF militants and PMC Wagner - sniper work and FPV drone attack showed 

And as a contray:  https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-says-withdrawal-its-troops-niger-start-this-week-2023-10-05/

France begins to withdraw own troops from Niger, where pro-Wagner political force took power as result of coup.

If West isn't ready to fight for own interests in Africa and just will retreat each time, then Russia, China or some sort ISIS-like will come on their place.   

 

[akd]

Close look at a captured, battle-damaged T-90M:

 

[Haiduk]

19 minutes ago, Simcoe said:

Thanks for sharing. How much of this depends on unit and circumstance? 

 

What about on the Ukrainian side. Was my analysis correct? Are there any other nuances I'm missing?

Of course. Russians on Zaporizhzhia front understand they hold way to Crimea. The price of breakthrough is very high and in case of failure all they will be fu..d by higher chief, so they very motivated to fight for each inch. 

About Ukrainians I can't say more, but I think "ellastic defense" is more suitable for our forces, but this also depends of importance of position. 

Edited October 7, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Israel strikes back. Residential building collapsed in Gaza. No internatinal indignation and will not be (ok, except some left-winged, which always supported Palestina). 

Ukrainian drone damaged windows in Moscow tower - week of discussions "have Ukraine a right to strike Russian cities or not", concernings and warnings about possible cancelling of aid for attacks on civilaian objects. What's allowed to Jupiter, that not allowed to the bull...

 

 

Edited October 7, 2023 by Haiduk

[danfrodo]

I needed some feel good something today, and this is it.  Abrams arriving in UKR, hopefully first batch of many.  This article goes into some history of the tank but also makes some good points about how it could be more useful than some other armored vehicles in the coming dark, muddy months.  Abrams has really low ground pressure despite its size.  And it has excellent night vision plus some bunker-busting ammo.  So could be used at night to target RU strongpoints while RU has less visibility, typically.  Chobham armor should give nice survivability.  

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/10/7/2197886/-Ukraine-Update-The-Abrams-was-designed-for-winter-combat-in-Zaporizhzhia?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_1&pm_medium=web

It's no wonder weapon, but what armored vehicle would you rather be in as a tanker?  And what would you rather have as armored support?  

[NamEndedAllen]

Meanwhile, the case is weaker than ever that USA military aid isn’t and won’t be in any danger because these Republicans or those Republicans support it, and other assertions that even if Trump or a similarly Putin-leaning candidate wins the Presidency this coming year, high levels of aid will continue. A new poll, and an analysis:

The White House and pro-Ukraine lawmakers are growing increasingly alarmed about the future of US funding for Kyiv in the wake of Kevin McCarthy’s ousting as speaker of the House of Representatives, which has left military aid in limbo. The risk of a lapse in American aid to Ukraine within a few months — a worst-case scenario for the Biden administration which has until now seemed unlikely — has risen in the past few days as chaos has enveloped the Republican party in Congress. It has also triggered soul-searching in Washington over the impact of US political dysfunction on the administration’s foreign policy goals, as it tries to forge global alliances to counter Russian aggression and rising threats from China.  https://www.ft.com/content/49dea011-2824-4dd3-9341-5942bdec8211

New Reuters/IPSOS poll released Thursday: https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4240664-fewer-americans-support-arming-ukraine-poll/

The poll, conducted Tuesday and Wednesday, showed only 41 percent of respondents said they agreed that the United States should provide weapons to Ukraine, down from 65 percent of respondents who said the same in a June 2023 survey.
That decline in support for sending weapons to Ukraine extends across parties. Democratic support dropped from 81 percent in June to 52 percent in October. 

Republican support dropped from 56 percent to 35 percent in the same period. Independent support dropped from 57 percent to 44 percent.

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Of course, Ukraine decided to get rid of all weaponary by own pure free-will. And weren't any "gentle offers" to sign it from any countries, wasn't any diplomacy discussions... Yes, rose unicornes exist.

Like most of your other theories, come up with one shred of supporting evidence.  Of course there was diplomacy but no one coerced Ukraine into giving up land mines.  The fact that Ukraine still has cluster munitions is proof that coercion was not the primary method of trying to get people to sign on to any of these treaties.  Prove it.

Again the West can’t win.  We somehow blindly trusted Russia and then violated agreements not to contain them through NATO expansion. We forced Russia’s hand and let them do dirty through inaction- at the same time.  Here is the truth and you can go back to the Budapest Memo debate we had on this…Ukraine agreed to all of the arms reductions the each step on the way.  Ukraine was paid millions for those reductions and signed off on every one.  Ukraine signed off on guarantees - weak as they were - as well.  So now that things have obviously gone sideways, you want to forget all that and put all the blame on the US/West for this mess?  You want to forget gross political corruption in defence - that is still happening according to some - that very likely would have seen all those MANPADs sold off to a highest bidder, many in those VEOs we faced for 20 years?  Are we to honestly believe that you are saying with a straight face that Ukraine would have held onto all that weaponry for a rainy day 20-30 years later?

The West’s failure was in not acting decisively and with unity back in 2014.  We definitely did not step up and push back hard enough.  That is a fair point.  Further we definitely could have moved faster in late 21.  The rest of your narrative is unsubstantiated, and frankly self-serving.  The West does not owe Ukraine a damned thing based on its failures.  

It owes you support because it is the right thing to do.  Ukraine is an independent nation that was minding its own business when Russia decided to invade and murder.  That is why we support Ukraine.  Not some bizarre construct of culpability pulling half the facts from the 1990s.

[Ultradave]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

No internatinal indignation and will not be

Oh, there will be, for sure. Maybe not 5 minutes after it happened.

This video post is the first I saw this (partly because I've been driving around a good part of the day). In the US, there is a broad antipathy to the policies of the Israeli government and that has been so for years. But there is also very strong support for them as well. What there also is is VERY widespread support for the Israeli people. 

Most people can separate governmental policy from the people. Others will unfairly malign the critics as lacking support for Israel. It's complicated 

Dave

[kimbosbread]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

The general level of chaos might convince Xi now, or soon, is the time to go for it while there are just too many fires happening at once. Nobody thought Putin was this crazy either.

In general terms, increasing the level of entropy is a great strategy, but I think the general increase in "Great Satan Isolationism" makes it less viable than a few decades ago.

Sure, a ruckus in the Middle East might bother Europe, but the US is world's largest oil and gas producer and when push comes to shove, we aren't dependent on the Middle East for anything anymore. All the isolationists wouldn't care, and the oil people probably wouldn't either as it would be good for their business.

Starting a civil war in the Phillipines or Malaysia would be more beneficial for China's war efforts, especially as a way to establish more bases and protect sea routes for food and oil.

That said, I assume China isn't prepared yet to mount the biggest amphibious invasion in history. You can't really rush certain aspects of the preparation, even if you want to avoid the US having 10x the amount of anti-ship missiles it had a year or two ago and systems to quickly replace the entire US satellite constellations. Way different than marching a land army 100km.

 

 

[Harmon Rabb]

New anti-Ukraine talking point on Twitter.

As someone who has been following this war for almost two years and his lost count of how many videos I have seen related to war in Ukraine. I politely disagree with Donald Trump JR.

 

[TheVulture]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

The general level of chaos might convince Xi now, or soon, is the time to go for it while there are just too many fires happening at once. Nobody thought Putin was this crazy either.

Xi set the Chinese military a target of 2027 to build a force capable of being able to carry out an invasion of Taiwan. They are not remotely ready to do so yet. And even if they were, they have exactly zero experience of large scale amphibious assaults against a very well prepared peer enemy. Never mind sustaining a protracted campaign with a supply line across the strait of Taiwain. They're not about  to make their first trial run the real thing; they'll almost certainly start with smaller scale attacks on smaller, more remote islands first as an 'exerice' to assess their capabilities.

[Battlefront.com]

I understand it is tempting to discuss the unfolding events going on in Israel and Gaza in a familiar place with people with insightful observations.  However, it is clearly off topic and I am going to (again) ask that people refrain from doing so.  If I have to send people on vacation to ensure this thread stays on topic, I will do so.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

New anti-Ukraine talking point on Twitter.

As someone who has been following this war for almost two years and his lost count of how many videos I have seen related to war in Ukraine. I politely disagree with Donald Trump JR.

 

The above is an example of what I previously deemed acceptably on topic for this thread as it involves Ukraine.

I'm scratching my head even understanding what the point of this obvious campaign is.  From my perspective it comes off as being pro-Ukrainian and anti-Israeli ("white Christians have been getting murdered for 2 years and nobody cares, but a few Jews get killed and it is as if the world is coming to an end").  However, I'm sure that's not it at all.  So what is this supposed to mean?

BTW, I would not be at all surprised if Fox News has put more videos of the fighting in Israel and Gaza than Ukraine.  Definitely not true for BBC and CNN.

Steve

[Harmon Rabb]

22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The above is an example of what I previously deemed acceptably on topic for this thread as it involves Ukraine.

I'm scratching my head even understanding what the point of this obvious campaign is.  From my perspective it comes off as being pro-Ukrainian and anti-Israeli ("white Christians have been getting murdered for 2 years and nobody cares, but a few Jews get killed and it is as if the world is coming to an end").  However, I'm sure that's not it at all.  So what is this supposed to mean?

BTW, I would not be at all surprised if Fox News has put more videos of the fighting in Israel and Gaza than Ukraine.  Definitely not true for BBC and CNN.

Steve

My first thought would be they are trying to say the war in Ukraine is fake, Wag the Dog style. I remember seeing some lunatics who really believe that in Twitter and YouTube around the time the war first started.

I would be really surprised if Donald Trump Jr, would say anything pro-Ukraine given his track record.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-7-2023

Belarusian officials are leveraging international partnerships in an attempt to legitimize Belarus’ role in the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children. Russian and Belarusian media reported on October 4 that a number of diplomats who are accredited in Belarus visited a group of 44 children from Lysychansk and Severodonetsk at an accommodation point in Novopolotsk, Belarus.[12] The group of diplomats included representatives from Zimbabwe, India, Qatar, China, Cuba, Mongolia, the United Arab Emirates, Palestine, Russia, Syria, and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)

 

All of the guests invited on the tour were from noted human rights champions. 

[kluge]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm scratching my head even understanding what the point of this obvious campaign is.  From my perspective it comes off as being pro-Ukrainian and anti-Israeli ("white Christians have been getting murdered for 2 years and nobody cares, but a few Jews get killed and it is as if the world is coming to an end").  However, I'm sure that's not it at all.  So what is this supposed to mean?

Today's ISW report leads off with an explanation:

Quote

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-7-2023

The Kremlin is already and will likely continue to exploit the Hamas attacks in Israel to advance several information operations intended to reduce US and Western support and attention to Ukraine.The Kremlin amplified several information operations following Hamas attacks in Israel on October 7, primarily blaming the West for neglecting conflicts in the Middle East in favor of supporting Ukraine and claiming the international community will cease to pay attention to Ukraine by portraying attention to the Middle East or alternatively Ukraine as a zero-sum comparison. Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev claimed the United States and its allies should have been “busy with” working on “Palestinian-Israeli settlement” rather than “interfering” with Russia and providing Ukraine with military aid.[1] The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) accused the West of blocking efforts by a necessary “quartet” of Russia, the US, the European Union, and the United Nations, leading to an escalation in violence, implicitly blaming the West for the current fighting.[2] Prominent Russian propagandist Sergei Mardan directly stated that Russia will benefit from the escalation as the world “will take its mind off Ukraine for a while and get busy once again putting out the eternal fire in the Middle East.”[3] These Kremlin narratives target Western audiences to drive a wedge in military support for Ukraine, seek to demoralize Ukrainian society by claiming Ukraine will lose international support, and intend to reassure Russian domestic audiences that the international society will ignore Ukraine’s war effort.

 

[danfrodo]

Hey all, I just started a new thread on the Israel war that hit us today.  Hoping to keep this thread more on UKR war.