How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I really do not understand something here - and I am not pushing back or being confrontational, honestly puzzled.  What is it about Russian society that somehow embraces these paradoxes?

In the article the writer described a largely detached micro-social dynamic.  No one is mentioning an ideal - no Mother Russia or greater purpose to defend and die for. The entire thing is "well now we can afford a toilet that flushes...totally worth it."  Secondary we see peer-pressure and social values at play in a micro-sense.  The little a$$hat of the neighborhood is now a Wagner war hero - guys like that will milk this for the rest of their lives.  Wars bring bragging rights, tale as old as time and particularly impactful in a largely disenfranchised sub-set of society. 

All that, plus a largely transactional mercenary agreement does not scream "social resilience" to me.  Why on earth would that neighborhood send its young men to die if the money runs out?  Why obey a macro-social construct whose major benefit has been "gas, not coal" in the last 30 years?  To my mind these are signs of an incredibly brittle society, held together by shared misery.  Not something one can use as a foundation for a major war.

"We" and "I" is a tale as old as time.  It is why I did up that calc that Russia needs to lose around 1.5 million young men before everyone feels it.  And based on this article I am not sure even then a lot of Russians will give a crap.  I know this is one snapshot but it portrays a sprawled out and dis-connected society where apathy and quick monetary gain, not ideas or morality, rule.  

Of course mobiks can dig in an die.  Surrender means PoW, which likely means "no money" and social shame - most teenagers will choose death first.  This is not solely Russian in the least.  The worst troops will fight like badgers when they have zero other options.

Urban centers as far as I can see have 1) left the entire discussion, or 2) bought off and are all nationalistic.  An over-simplification I understand.

I can see no clear reason why Russia started this war (we have discussed this at great length and no clear theory has ever been presented).  But I can even understand less how Russian society can sustain losing it for this long.  This article really highlights a theme we have seen before - Russia is one big messy paradox:

- Meh, I don't really care...but I will send all my kids to fight and die in Ukraine because Putin says so!

- Meh, I am only in the army for the money.  But I will die to the last man holding onto this patch of dirt!

- I am dodging service like a madman, but I support the war, even passively. 

I have never seen such a collection of aggressive-apathy/apathy-aggressive paradoxes.   

It figures in there somewhere that Russia has not been well run for even five minutes of the last thousand years. ALL it has ever experienced is various forms bad. If you are a Russian without much knowledge or interest in the outside world it seems to be possible to shrug your shoulders and figure that yesterday was awful one way, today is terrible a different way, and and tomorrow will be worse in some new and horrible fashion. There is nothing for it but to keep on keeping on while ingesting as much vodka as possible. The people who saw it differently have emigrated or been dealt with unpleasantly. 

 

[Dave2214]

2 hours ago, Astrophel said:

I fear when we look back at this war in a decade or more we will be kicking ourselves for not getting more directly involved.  The extent of russian barbarity is truly shocking and it is happening next door - clash of cultures.

I agree. Arming for security is supposed to prevent debacles like this war. It's purpose is to prevent barbarity not encourage it. 

[Lethaface]

3 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Never said 'they all are'. But some for sure.

Again no. But the information of the MIVD can be manipulated by the FSB, which possibility is more or less admitted in  this documentary. The MIVD will be the first to admit that.

Let's assume this is a Ukrainian-Polish operation. Perhaps even covered by the Americans, given the dutch warning to Washington, that such an operation was planned by the Ukrainians. Who is to benefit from getting that public? Right.

The 'people' do not have a 'right' to know the truth. Most of them are far too stupid for that and will draw the wrong conclusions. Russia is at this moment the enemy. That neither Ukraine nor Poland can be entirely trusted is no surprise to those who know the history of these two countries. But at this moment everybody must believe the Russians are behind it. That Swedish/Danish documentary I watched some time ago, is far more convincing than this dutch documentary.

I smell a rat and it's name is FSB.

I certainly don't rule out an FSB plot of 'feeding' info and a trail of evidence pointing towards Ukrainian individuals. And I agree that for national security reasons (especially during wartime although we're not at war) the public doesn't need to know everything. 
But if such a thing should get out (either in public or as classified info), it will probably be not as happy faces on the next meeting.

Anyway if I had to put money on either Russia or Ukraine, in the past I would have put it at Russia with a bit more confidence then I would do now. Perhaps I'd put it on Ukraine, as there are at least some leads pointing there.

On the motive side there is no clear cut case either.

Anyway let's see if more will be known in the foreseeable future. Might be something that will remain unknown for quite some time. 

[Aragorn2002]

6 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

I certainly don't rule out an FSB plot of 'feeding' info and a trail of evidence pointing towards Ukrainian individuals. And I agree that for national security reasons (especially during wartime although we're not at war) the public doesn't need to know everything. 
But if such a thing should get out (either in public or as classified info), it will probably be not as happy faces on the next meeting.

Anyway if I had to put money on either Russia or Ukraine, in the past I would have put it at Russia with a bit more confidence then I would do now. Perhaps I'd put it on Ukraine, as there are at least some leads pointing there.

On the motive side there is no clear cut case either.

Anyway let's see if more will be known in the foreseeable future. Might be something that will remain unknown for quite some time. 

Quite right. Given the fact that we still don't know who killed JFK this might be the next mystery. In a world full of lies who cares anymore. The Russians must be defeated, all else is unimportant. For the moment...

Edited September 27, 2023 by Aragorn2002

[Lethaface]

3 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

The whole nordstream discussion is very strange.

I read (maybe in this very thread) that you need specialized training and specialized equipment to pull something like that off. A group of random divers operating from a tiny boat won't do, because it is too deep, etc.

Does Ukraine have that capability? Unlikely. Does Ukraine have a reason to do it? Not unless you do a lot of mentsl gymnastics. Does Ukraine have a history of messing with other countries' underwater infrastructure? Nope. Were any Ukrainian assets seen around? One suspected boat according to "anonymous sources" and the link to Ukraine seems to be some "Ukrainian" but actually Russian lady who visited Crimea maybe?

Does US have the capability? Probably, I'm sure SEALS can do some crazy stuff. Does US have a reason to do it? I'd say not much but it can be discussed (it seems the relationship impact would be very much not worth it even if US really didn't like the project). Does US have a history of messing with other countries' underwater infrastructure? Not that I know. Were US assests seen in the area? Not that I know of.

Does Russia have the capability? Yes. Does Russia have a reason to do it? Very much yes. Does Russia have history of messing with other coutries' underwater infrastructure? Yes. Were Russian assets seen in the area? Yes, specialized ship for underwater works was seen nearby before and after.

FWIW in the video and text this subject is addressed; I'd say the complexity of the operation was overestimated / bit of a myth.

According to a dive instructor interviewed in the video, who teaches people to dive at the depths involved (70-80m) in the Baltic sea, this is a complicated dive, but not 'overcomplicated' and well doable for experienced divers. It is his dayjob to train people to do this. He told he was laughing a bit when he heard the same things you post on the news after the attacks.
They mention minimum of ~50kg of explosive per charge. So a group of 5-6 experienced divers with professional diving equipment could in theory very well have done this from a small boat like that sailing boat.
One interesting bit also featured is that one harbour master in the area said that it was quite an achievement to do dives like that without anyone noticing (coastguards, navies). 

According to the research German police have found traces of the same explosive (HMX) that was used for the attack on a table in the ship, which itself was located after info from the MIVD source. Phone numbers / e-mail addresses involved with hiring of the ship point to Ukrainian individuals. 

All in all I think it's safe to conclude that either someone really wanted to make it look like Ukraine did it, or Ukraine/Ukrainians did it. 

The ship involved in the evidence could have well been the ship that did it, but could also be part of a larger effort or just a ruse to make it look like Ukrainians did it.

Edited September 27, 2023 by Lethaface

[cesmonkey]

 

[Aragorn2002]

33 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

FWIW in the video and text this subject is addressed; I'd say the complexity of the operation was overestimated / bit of a myth.

According to a dive instructor interviewed in the video, who teaches people to dive at the depths involved (70-80m) in the Baltic sea, this is a complicated dive, but not 'overcomplicated' and well doable for experienced divers. It is his dayjob to train people to do this. He told he was laughing a bit when he heard the same things you post on the news after the attacks.
They mention minimum of ~50kg of explosive per charge. So a group of 5-6 experienced divers with professional diving equipment could in theory very well have done this from a small boat like that sailing boat.
One interesting bit also featured is that one harbour master in the area said that it was quite an achievement to do dives like that without anyone noticing (coastguards, navies). 

According to the research German police have found traces of the same explosive (HMX) that was used for the attack on a table in the ship, which itself was located after info from the MIVD source. Phone numbers / e-mail addresses involved with hiring of the ship point to Ukrainian individuals. 

All in all I think it's safe to conclude that either someone really wanted to make it look like Ukraine did it, or Ukraine/Ukrainians did it. 

The ship involved in the evidence could have well been the ship that did it, but could also be part of a larger effort or just a ruse to make it look like Ukrainians did it.

And what about the timing of this news? Any ideas anyone?

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I really do not understand something here - and I am not pushing back or being confrontational, honestly puzzled.  What is it about Russian society that somehow embraces these paradoxes?

Not at all confrontational, probably many of us here ask themselves exactly the same question from day 1 of this war. I am sorry, but answer for now seems to be ..."?"

Or if one prefers- "X" (just don't start another Elon rant, folks ). Where it stands for one of many variables of military equation of "how to win this war". Russians may lose territory, vehicles, people, commanders, bases, some territory...but this X is a mystery. It always was like that, even to Russians themselves and their intelelctuals.

Take for example your own words, a military guy who knows the war and is well educated:

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I have never seen such a collection of aggressive-apathy/apathy-aggressive paradoxes.   

...and compare them with similar thoughts, of similar guys across several centuries, who actually fought with Russians and whom I am sure you read. German marshalls (sorry for comparision, just let's forget ideological component for a moment), French soldiers ("Russian must first be killed, than pushed..."), adds Finns, Swedish, Polish (yes- in XVII cent. they already described similar phenomena), possibly Turks and Japanese too. We could dwell into sources here and talk about stereotypes and hstorical context, but truth to be told in the end they all point to the same thing- these guys (=Muscovites/Russians/Soviets) are strange and their behaviour often elude conventional military wisdom. The word "paradox"(or equivalents of the era) you just used pop-up constantly. Over 4 centuries. This historical pattern is staggering in itself, isn't it?

At least on positive side, Ukrainians are not forced to fight against terror of Russian space and environment, that often turned western armies into something resembling less-colorfull gypsy trains on horse-driven carts. Russians probably can be beaten also in defensive war but so far I don't see any hammer falling on them that would make it.

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

To my mind these are signs of an incredibly brittle society, held together by shared misery.  Not something one can use as a foundation for a major war.

Correct. However, are we sure that sense of common suffering and bleakness of life is not something desirable if one wages a war? Note that what is a society held by misery (good term, I preferred "community of suffering") in Western terms, can be very effective social glue of entire civilzation, that means if properly channelled and kept just below boiling point; so far Putin is good at the last part, I'll give him that.

Again- apathy and misery are Russian ultimate trump cards, not weaknessess. They can go wild if played wrongly, but so far Putin is pretty skillfully operating on Russian phobias, massive historical traumas, lack of trust to each other and urge for greatness.

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Urban centers as far as I can see have 1) left the entire discussion, or 2) bought off and are all nationalistic.  An over-simplification I understand.

Yes, they are not entirely sold for the war and tend to be more problematic for Kremlin than glubinka- which is preciselly why they serve less recruits in comparison. That is why I think we did not hit  elites with sanctions enoguh; list is way too short. Rich Russians shifted burden of war on precariat (who have little to tell and are sometimes liberal anyway) and countryside, themselves living comfortably. If we could make, somehow, that wives of Russian businessmen will have no botox to to find, no passports to civilized countries to go for shopping and nobody will have their own small safe spaces like datchas outside cities...then they morale may brake fast. In fact note that Ukrianians already do this partially, targeting tourism industry in Crimea as much as military facilities. This is not small blow to muscovite self-image.

There are ofc. also smaller networks of towns and localisms (Caucasus, Syberia) that make this equation even more difficult.

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I can see no clear reason why Russia started this war (we have discussed this at great length and no clear theory has ever been presented).  But I can even understand less how Russian society can sustain losing it for this long.  This article really highlights a theme we have seen before - Russia is one big messy paradox:

- Meh, I don't really care...but I will send all my kids to fight and die in Ukraine because Putin says so!

- Meh, I am only in the army for the money.  But I will die to the last man holding onto this patch of dirt!

- I am dodging service like a madman, but I support the war, even passively. 

Yup, that is why I prefer to view this war in cultural terms, not only purely in military stuff. Many people may consider such paradigm as humanistically softish and simply unverifiable from point of view of this- extremely pragmatic- endeavour that is warfare. But sooner or later, thay too will hit giant black box with "Culture" inscribed on it.

I just hope that there is somebody very smart in Washington right now who try to crack this code as we do, and whose curricullum is better than studies of Russian language or literature at Harvard + internship in Russia 10 years ago. You know, somebody who really feels the guts of this nation and its opaque ways, not just understands its history and high literature as sign of private social excellence. Otherwise various war scenarios, Big Game plans and similar stuff can ultimatelly have the same worth as zillions of works "how to defeat Soviets" published by DC establishment in 1989...

Edited September 27, 2023 by Beleg85

[Harmon Rabb]

This is just getting sad.

[Vanir Ausf B]

It's Scott Ritter...

[Letter from Prague]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Again- apathy and misery are Russian ultimate trump cards, not weaknessess. They can go wild if played wrongly, but so far Putin is pretty skillfully operating on Russian phobias, massive historical traumas, lack of trust to each other and urge for greatness.

I would say this sword has two edges.

The apathy and misery is what allows Russians to still wage the war. But it is also what prevents them from waging it well.

There are pockets of competent Russians - we hear about some units using drones well and other things - but these are only a pockets because while they are capable of learning and innovation, the apathy makes them incapable of scaling it up.

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Yes, they are not entirely sold for the war and tend to be more problematic for Kremlin than glubinka- which is preciselly why they serve less recruits in comparison. That is why I think we did not hit  elites with sanctions enoguh; list is way too short. Rich Russians shifted burden of war on precariat (who have little to tell and are sometimes liberal anyway) and countryside, themselves living comfortably. If we could make, somehow, that wives of Russian businessmen will have no botox to to find, no passports to civilized countries to go for shopping and nobody will have their own small safe spaces like datchas outside cities...then they morale may brake fast. In fact note that Ukrianians already do this partially, targeting tourism industry in Crimea as much as military facilities. This is not small blow to muscovite self-image.

That is also why the drone strikes on Moscow are important - I even feel like Russians closing the Moscow airport due to drones has bigger impact than some explosions. If your flight to Paris get cancelled because of Ukrainian missiles, it is harder to pretend there is no war, while some burning building in a city that has more people than my country just gets lost in the noise.

[NamEndedAllen]

5 hours ago, Ultradave said:

Resolved. There is money in the Senate continuing resolution for Ukraine aid (and US disaster relief as well). Now, the real question is whether the House will even consider it for a vote that way. 

I don't think there is much doubt that the Senate will continue to support Ukraine. And really the House as well, EXCEPT in the House, there are ~20 who will not under any circumstance, at least as yet, and that 20 of 435 can hold up everything, since there is only a 4 seat majority.  In the past, dissenters had "permission" to vote against, to satisfy their constituents, because when the votes were counted there were sufficient without the dissenters. This isn't the case now, and 20 are dictating terms to the entire 222 majority. And Speaker McCarthy is in a bad situation, of his own making. If he tries to pass the Senate bill, it may pass with Democratic help, since the Senate bill was bipartisan, but he'll be voted out of the speakership because he will supposedly have reneged on the agreement made with the 20 to get to be Speaker. If he tries to put forward his own resolution, and includes ALL the demands of the 20, it *might* pass, but will NEVER pass the Senate. It might not even pass the House, because there are plenty of Republicans who don't support the positions that the vocal 20 member minority hold. I'm using 20 because it's *about* that many and fluctuates day to day - we all know who the MOST vocal minority of the minority are and they seem to hold the power, a pretty amazing spectacle for first term Congresscritters to display.

Been watching all this with a feeling of both interest and horror. Not that it hasn't happened before, but in the past no one was holding the Speaker's job hostage at the same time.

The Pentagon has stated that in a shutdown, aid to Ukraine would continue as a priority measure not to be interrupted. So that's good anyway.

Dave

Hope for the best, plan for the worst.
Yours are excellent points on this sad, disgusting example of failure at governance. I don’t believe “resolved” is the best term though, since the House will not accept this Senate measure. It’s a problem to make assumptions about the outcome of the current fiscal crisis based on past episodes. In the past, the blockading Representatives were sane. And they understood getting to Yes. Yet the outcomes were NOT all puppies and rainbows. Painful compromises were made, but at costs ultimately to the complex interests of the public. This time? “Compromise” is a terrible “sin”. And the costs and unintended consequences of an agreement could well be worse than in the past. Especially with the 2024 elections looming.  In an extended shutdown, it is possible that extreme pressure could shake the minority into accepting a short term band-aid, kicking the can down the road again. I just wouldn’t place bets on any specific results at this time. 
 

[Jr Buck Private]

13,000 Ukrainians massing for a crossing of the Dnipro? 

That supposedly is what Rybar reported.   Did anybody else hear of anything like that?  Not sure if I believe it but that sure would be an attention getter.   Maybe I've watched A Bridge Too Far's river assault at Nijmegan too many times, but I keep wondering what the end game is for what's been happening across from Kherson.  You'd figure the Russians have pulled out some forces there to shore up their lines up north.

Edited September 27, 2023 by Jr Buck Private
added something

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

...and compare them with similar thoughts, of similar guys across several centuries, who actually fought with Russians and whom I am sure you read. German marshalls (sorry for comparision, just let's forget ideological component for a moment), French soldiers ("Russian must first be killed, than pushed..."), adds Finns, Swedish, Polish (yes- in XVII cent. they already described similar phenomena), possibly Turks and Japanese too. We could dwell into sources here and talk about stereotypes and hstorical context, but truth to be told in the end they all point to the same thing- these guys (=Muscovites/Russians/Soviets) are strange and their behaviour often elude conventional military wisdom. The word "paradox"(or equivalents of the era) you just used pop-up constantly. Over 4 centuries. This historical pattern is staggering in itself, isn't it?

Sadly, yes.

As a student of Russian history, especially modern times, I was well aware of all the things we're discussing now.  What I had hoped was that enough there were enough Russians in positions of economic power (more than political or social) that would offer enough resistance that we could see this war end sooner rather than later.  As I've stated many times over the last 1+ year, I overestimated the quantity and quality of those with economic power.  Those that opposed the war for the right reasons left Russia, thus taking them out of the equation.  Putin slaughtered a few just to make sure those that remained stayed in line.  And so they have.

That said, we've also noted that there's no new mobilization this year even though militarily it was clearly needed.  Especially after burning through so many during the winter.  So there are limits even if they are incomprehensibly outside of Western norms.

Steve

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

would say this sword has two edges.

The apathy and misery is what allows Russians to still wage the war. But it is also what prevents them from waging it well.

There are pockets of competent Russians - we hear about some units using drones well and other things - but these are only a pockets because while they are capable of learning and innovation, the apathy makes them incapable of scaling it up.

Yes, we talked about it too before. Especially in the offensive, early phase of this war we saw how their military system...disgraced itself, not other words. And it is true they may die in heaps, even now attacking Ukrainains report ratio of casualties like 1:2 or 1:3...but so what? Muscovy stand by its numbers if nothing else. If transport of new farsh (meat stuffing; term sometimes attributed to recruits in typical dark cynicism ) is unobstructed and countryside provides- we are still in a deadlock, even if Ukraine moves several kms. Or even reconquer entire Zaporizhia. Ofc. lossess in equipment and enablers are our bet, but it is unknown if tempo is enough to outpace Russian production lines; if winter stalls offensive actions, it is likely they will catch some breath.

Also, a lot of things changed from III.2022. Now they are much better adapted overall to this war- at least that is notion I have from almost all interviews I saw with actual fighters on the ground. Take for example drone warfare or that their killchain for big missiles did improved significantly; also air deep strikes themselves are progressivelly more complicated and nuanced.

6 hours ago, dan/california said:

It figures in there somewhere that Russia has not been well run for even five minutes of the last thousand years.

Oh, perhaps we shouldn't be such harsh across the board. For example they introduced pretty progressive legal codes in XIX century that were way ahead of this time. And liquidated serfdoom, at least formally. There also were talented managers and politicians in Russian history who did raised quality of live a little...probably Krushchev can be called one of them, despite his simple background. Soviet society of late 70-ties was very different than one from Stalin era. Also- let's remember dogs flying in space...

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

That said, we've also noted that there's no new mobilization this year even though militarily it was clearly needed.  Especially after burning through so many during the winter.  So there are limits even if they are incomprehensibly outside of Western norms.

Sure they are, and the post was not intended as promoting doom and gloom. Just both Ukraine and West needs to figure out more innovative ways of defeating Russia, that includdes acceptance that their culture is builded on misery/apathy, which is accepted norm of life, even nurished and something they are proud of, not shy of. If we include influence of propaganda, it can be said that their social fabric is going straight into well...necrophilic direction. That embraces absurdity of life and subsequent "easy" death as a value in itself (albeit not in a way that, for example, Japanese in WWII did, who put much more pressure on value of sacrifice and honour- which were marks of increased social cohesion, not decreased like here).

Therefore, killing as many soldiers as it can be done may not be sufficent to knock them off, even if we reach half a milion or so. Problem is that our toolbox is so limited here, compared to Putin's...

Edited September 27, 2023 by Beleg85

[Anon052]

3 hours ago, Lethaface said:

FWIW in the video and text this subject is addressed; I'd say the complexity of the operation was overestimated / bit of a myth.

According to a dive instructor interviewed in the video, who teaches people to dive at the depths involved (70-80m) in the Baltic sea, this is a complicated dive, but not 'overcomplicated' and well doable for experienced divers. It is his dayjob to train people to do this. He told he was laughing a bit when he heard the same things you post on the news after the attacks.
They mention minimum of ~50kg of explosive per charge. So a group of 5-6 experienced divers with professional diving equipment could in theory very well have done this from a small boat like that sailing boat.
One interesting bit also featured is that one harbour master in the area said that it was quite an achievement to do dives like that without anyone noticing (coastguards, navies). 

According to the research German police have found traces of the same explosive (HMX) that was used for the attack on a table in the ship, which itself was located after info from the MIVD source. Phone numbers / e-mail addresses involved with hiring of the ship point to Ukrainian individuals. 

All in all I think it's safe to conclude that either someone really wanted to make it look like Ukraine did it, or Ukraine/Ukrainians did it. 

The ship involved in the evidence could have well been the ship that did it, but could also be part of a larger effort or just a ruse to make it look like Ukrainians did it.

I read the newsarticle Seedorf posted that somehow claimed new kind of evidence surfaced but everything in there was identical to the investigative report that was published in germany more in depth roughly a  month ago and was discussed here too. The german investigative report was very onesided and ignored a lot of evidence  that pointed in russian direction and it failed to plausibly establish how the Andromeda could do the northsteam sabotage.  The only  new "fact" in the dutch article was that traces of the explosive HMX was found at the site of sabotage. I am no forensic expert but there are different reasons I would be highly sceptical of this fact. But even if true. HMX would be one  of the most probable explosives that one would use for such a bombing by diver. And if the Andromeda was a false Flag, then it would be very easy for the perpetrator to plant the same kind of explosive that was used in the bombings.

You say the complexity of the operation was overestimated. Do you have any idea what kind of complexity is needed to do this kind of operation? I work in UXO,UXB, ERB disposal in the northsea, baltic sea and rivers. I work on specialised ships and with divers (most of them  with navy background) that do exactly this kind of work that would be needed for the northstream sabotage.

The complexity of this operation is a LOT more than just being able to do the dive. The equipment needed just to do the simple dive ignoring all of the  other specialised equipment: on the ships I work on this equipment is located in  containers that are half as big as the Andromeda. All those gastanks alone do take a lot of room. You need a lot more of those for a deep sea diving suit/ hard-hat than you would for a simple diving suit.

The first problem the divers  had to overcome is to find the pipelines and then the right locations for the bombing. This alone is a very big problem. To locate those you need a depth sonar or a submersible. Good luck instaling those on the Andromeda.  In those depths it is pitch black. Those divers have to work completely blind. They are trained to do so but they still need instruction  by those one the ship  with exactly this kind of equipment that the Andromeda lacks. And on top of that they did this on the same day at  three different locations. And they did the dive on a very instable plattform which means high chance of death.

Then there is the question of  the explosives. The theory that was presented in the investigative report was that only a small amount was used.  There exist seismic profiles of those explosions  and those hint  at  a  bigger amount of explosives used. It is not conclusive evidence but it points in another direction.

Not one of the divers I work with thinks its realistically possible to do the northstream sabotage from the  Andromeda in a short amount of time.

There is more  I could write but it is already late here I have to work very early tomorrow.

One thing I have to say. The reporting on northsteam really does remind me on the reporting in german media about MH17 after it happend. The media tried to be "neutral" but it was mostly pointing in ukrainian direction and sometimes it was just reciting russian propaganda. Even after Bellingcat could show exactly what BUK was used by which unit german media ignored this evidence. It was only after the dutch reports with conclusive evidence were published that the reporting did change.

 

Edited September 27, 2023 by Anon052

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/16tggbt/russian_soldier_wishing_death_upon_factory/

Lets just say that it is another triumph of Russian quality assurance. Would a love a decent translation?

 

 

Edited September 27, 2023 by dan/california

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Anon052 said:

I read the newsarticle Seedorf posted that somehow claimed new kind of evidence surfaced but everything in there was identical to the investigative report that was published in germany more in depth roughly a  month ago and was discussed here too. The german investigative report was very onesided and ignored a lot of evidence  that pointed in russian direction and it failed to plausibly establish how the Andromeda could do the northsteam sabotage.  The only  new "fact" in the dutch article was that traces of the explosive HMX was found at the site of sabotage. I am no forensic expert but there are different reasons I would be highly sceptical of this fact. But even if true. HMX would be one  of the most probable explosives that one would use for such a bombing by diver. And if the Andromeda was a false Flag, then it would be very easy for the perpetrator to plant the same kind of explosive that was used in the bombings.

You say the complexity of the operation was overestimated. Do you have any idea what kind of complexity is needed to do this kind of operation? I work in UXO,UXB, ERB disposal in the northsea, baltic sea and rivers. I work on specialised ships and with divers (most of them  with navy background) that do exactly this kind of work that would be needed for the northstream sabotage.

The complexity of this operation is a LOT more than just being able to do the dive. The equipment needed just to do the simple dive ignoring all of the  other specialised equipment: on the ships I work on this equipment is located in  containers that are half as big as the Andromeda. All those gastanks alone do take a lot of room. You need a lot more of those for a deep sea diving suit/ hard-hat than you would for a simple diving suit.

The first problem the divers  had to overcome is to find the pipelines and then the right locations for the bombing. This alone is a very big problem. To locate those you need a depth sonar or a submersible. Good luck instaling those on the Andromeda.  In those depths it is pitch black. Those divers have to work completely blind. They are trained to do so but they still need instruction  by those one the ship  with exactly this kind of equipment that the Andromeda lacks. And on top of that they did this on the same day at  three different locations. And they did the dive on a very instable plattform which means high chance of death.

Then there is the question of  the explosives. The theory that was presented in the investigative report was that only a small amount was used.  There exist seismic profiles of those explosions  and those hint  at  a  bigger amount of explosives used. It is not conclusive evidence but it points in another direction.

Not one of the divers I work with thinks its realistically possible to do the northstream sabotage from the  Andromeda in a short amount of time.

There is more  I could write but it is already late here I have to work very early tomorrow.

One thing I have to say. The reporting on northsteam really does remind me on the reporting in german media about MH17 after it happend. The media tried to be "neutral" but it was mostly pointing in ukrainian direction and sometimes it was just reciting russian propaganda. Even after Bellingcat could show exactly what BUK was used by which unit german media ignored this evidence. It was only after the dutch reports with conclusive evidence were published that the reporting did change.

 

Why the expertise on this board is the best: 

Exhibit Bajillion, above. 

[Beleg85]

Nice interview with smart Ukrainian NCO (in PL, but autotranslates rather well) about tactics and organizational challanges he faces. I like his metaphor of keeping offensive going as trying to cimb on escalator; one cannot stop, otherwise he starts to loose.

https://www-polon-pl.translate.goog/bezpieczenstwo/ukrainski-zolnierz-zachodnia-taktyka-nie-jest-rozwiazaniem-ukrainskich-problemow/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=pl&_x_tr_pto=wapp

[billbindc]

3 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

And what about the timing of this news? Any ideas anyone?

Someone is clearly leaking a particular version of events to media and only some media in the usual country(s) is picking it up. Why? Because that scenario looks quite a bit like a Russian disinformation operation. 

[kimbosbread]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

That is why I think we did not hit  elites with sanctions enoguh; list is way too short. Rich Russians shifted burden of war on precariat (who have little to tell and are sometimes liberal anyway) and countryside, themselves living comfortably. If we could make, somehow, that wives of Russian businessmen will have no botox to to find, no passports to civilized countries to go for shopping and nobody will have their own small safe spaces like datchas outside cities...then they morale may brake fast.

This is where our political classes again lack creativity and flair if you don’t want to ban the passports outright.

Personally, I’d go Eldest Son on luxury goods intended for Russia… sneak some polonium into the botox, make a knockoff Louis V bag of out the skin of some dead Wagner guys, make the Champagne send over be full of some nasty poison, etc.

Or go after Russian tourists in Thailand on the downlow. Get Thai air defence to shoot down a Russian Airlines and then everybody covers it up and pretends it got lost at sea!?

[Dave2214]

Disinformation can be a very useful tactical weapon when deployed against a society lacking education. Well, that's the entire world in 2023. So, it is not going away. 

Teach Your Children
Song by Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young

- David 
 

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Or go after Russian tourists in Thailand on the downlow. Get Thai air defence to shoot down a Russian Airlines and then everybody covers it up and pretends it got lost at sea!?

No that just recreates the the controversy over the Nordstream, with endless investigations and so on. What needs to happen in places like Thailand is a sudden and severe attack of legalism. Suddenly start strictly enforcing the laws on drugs, and even less savory amusements with maximal severity. Throw several hundred, or several thousand, Russian tourists in jail, and then give the local Russian diplomats the the total run around. Make them criss cross Bangkok five times just to talk to people, and on, and on. If you can't just ban Russian tourists make them afraid to show up.

[danfrodo]

deleted

 

Edited September 27, 2023 by danfrodo

[Harmon Rabb]

Germany Stalls Delivery of Long-Range Cruise Missiles to Ukraine (wsj.com)

I know someone else is going to post this eventually so I will just do it.

My main question would be is this decision set in stone or is Scholz waiting for the United States to officially announce ATACMS. Like he waited for the United States to announce sending Abrams tanks.

I would be interested in hearing from our German friends who understand German politics more.

Please no Germany bashing day, I think we have had enough of that here.

 

Edited September 27, 2023 by Harmon Rabb