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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

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Interesting, update on the incident from last year, but what I think most suspected

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66798508

Quote

What really happened
As the two Russian SU-27s approached the RAF spy plane, they received a communication from their ground station controller.

One western source told the BBC the words they received were to the effect of "you have the target".

This ambiguous language was interpreted by one of the Russian pilots as permission to fire.

The loose language appears to have shown a high degree of unprofessionalism by those involved, sources said. In contrast, Nato pilots use very precise language when asking for and receiving permission to fire.

The Russian pilot released an air-to-air missile, which successfully launched but failed to lock on to its target, the BBC has been told. It was a miss, not a malfunction.

Defence sources have told the BBC that a row then broke out between the two Russian pilots.

The pilot of the second SU-27 did not think they had been given permission to fire.

He is said to have sworn at his comrade, effectively asking him what he thought he was doing.

Yet the first pilot still released another missile.

We had been told that the second missile simply fell from the wing - suggesting the weapon either malfunctioned or that the launch was aborted

P

 

 

Edited by Pete Wenman
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12 minutes ago, hcrof said:

I would love to know how they failed to hit a slow moving aircraft like a rivet joint. I'm sure the Russians would like to know too!

Professor Michael Clark was just on Sky News talking about this incident. His opinion is that the missile (the first one that is) was probably jammed by "something", although he does clearly state he has no evidence to back that up.

The second he reckons probably failed

Edited by Eddy
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How likely do you guys think that Gripens will come to Ukraine? My gut feeling says they are coming quite soon. 

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Ukrainian pilots have now been allowed to test fly the Gripen fighter plane, Defense Minister Pål Jonson wrote. The pilots have undergone orientation training which includes test flights in both aircraft and simulator and briefings for ground personnel. https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/jonsson-ukrainska-piloter-har-testat-gripen

 
 

 

Edited by zinz
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7 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

A somewhat sobering update from the Ukrainian Konstantin Mashovets. Here is an excerpt:
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1208
 

 

This is not too surprising.  In fact, I've been surprised how long the Ukrainian units have been able to maintain offensive capabilities as long as they have.  This is the toughest fighting of the war and, as Mashovets correctly states, it has been very costly to Ukraine.  More so at the beginning and recently than the inbetween period, but that's a lot of time to take casualties and yet stay in the line effectively.

As we've been saying over and over again... this is going to continue being a grind until suddenly it isn't.  Either because Ukraine breaks through or puts things on pause.

Steve

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1 hour ago, Harmon Rabb said:

The name is Zelenskyy...Volodymyr Zelenskyy. 😀

 

I know the above isn’t the place to look for rational arguments but I found this one extra funny:  ‘Britain deliberately provoked Barbarossa and then spent the next four years sending war materiel to the USSR and fighting Germany in Western Europe, Southern Europe, North Africa and the Atlantic - ALL IN ORDER TO HURT RUSSIA!!1!’.

Honestly I have so much respect for someone who can say that with a straight face. 

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3 minutes ago, kraze said:

Well I mean if Britain just let Germany simply occupy its share of Poland without any action - there would be no war, am I right?

that's literally not a joke but a russian logic. If you defend yourself - more bullets get to fly.

No one wants peace more than an invader. Invasions would go so much more smoothly if people just stopped defending themselves.

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Was the Triumph S300/S400 strike prior to the sevastopol dry dock attack (as an enabler) or after? 

There have been a lot of stories in the last week or so of significant bits of Russian equipment going boom, which certainly make it sound like the Russian forces are beginning to creak under the pressure. Its that a narrative that is born out in reality,  or is it more of a PR push where more is being made of stuff that is carrying on pretty much as normal? I'm not sure what to look for as evidence, beyond waiting a few more weeks to see how it plays out on the ground.

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1 hour ago, Teufel said:

Probably BS given original source but intresting rumor mill nevertheless.

Not the first time, in the past he had similar incidents. It's good he didn't shoot anyone.

One of his escapades is connected to the legend of origins of this dumb slogan "Ahmat- Strength", that has no sense in any normal language including Chechen. Namely, he was supposed to get in one of his narco rides in downtown capital during time when he tried to transform his bodyguards into fighting unit. So stoned Ramzan think and thinks about name of this super-duper commando, crossing neon-covered streets of midnight Grozny in a limo while listening to chilling music and possibly gently stroking head of his favourite escort-goat. Suddenly he stops the driver and stare at a billboard over bulding in one of backstreets; spark of genius enlightened him- he sees a gym called Strength (Sila) belonging (in small letters) to certain Ahmat! So, never allowing that such mundane thing as ortography stand between him and his great idea, he name entire unit, youth movement, school curiculla and his new slogan after it. Curtain.

Of course original Ahmat get lost somewhere very soon, as well as name of his gym, not to compete too much with brilliance of young leader. And later they invented official version that it was about his father Ahmat Kadyrov being supposedly strong. Which have even less sense.

But in all true, it was because "Christian" Kremlin pushed him to use some replacement for "Allahu Akbar" cry his goons shout during firefights, assasinations and later in war in Ukraine. Which of course didn't worked out too, since they howled like jihadis anyways. You know: political PR in Caucasian way. It doesn't need to have any sense, story is full of bodies and soon everybody forget why it was invented in the first place.

Edited by Beleg85
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1 hour ago, GAZ NZ said:

A clear timeline, and explanation of the attacks on Crimea explaining success of Ukraine attacks 

Good footage as well

 

I wouldn't give this channel the views, he's firmly biased towards Russia, just look at his past videos and even the comments on this one are telling. 

His thumbnails are funny though.

21g8qi02jcna1.png

 

The general in the background of the meme is Luigi Cardona, who fought 12 battles of the Isonzo in WWI if anyone doesn't know.

Edited by masc
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