How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Twisk]

Russia has also seemed to have been enabling this strategy through its profligate use of manpower, ammunition, and hardware in 2022/early 2023.  Had Russia committed an actual operational pause and integrated its mobilized and prisoner manpower into its forces properly I don't think Ukraine would be seeing any real success right now.

I think it points to a level of disbelief that Russian high command has for Ukraine's competency and ability to fight at a roughly even keel. 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/09/false-prophets-iraq-afghanistan-ukraine-war/675279/

Why have the experts been so persistently wrong?

 

The author makes an excellent case that far too little attention is paid the nasty little details, even in many upper level military staff colleges. Said details and realities have been scrubbed almost comepletely from the educations of diplomats and politicians. It explains a great deal about why this forum has been at the very least less wrong than a lot of other folks. The game forces you to think about at least some of those details. The fact this entire company attack is going nowhere until that one well sighted machine gun gets dealt with comes immediately to mind.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Centurian52 said:

I used to think so. But I am more and more convinced that Musk isn't actually all that smart. Just rich enough to hire smart people. The man renamed Twitter (one of the more recognizable names in the world) to X (a single letter which is impossible to trademark and which is literally used as a placeholder).

If anybody has seen the movie Glass Onion, they'll see that Ed Norton does a great job of riffing on people like Musk.

My personal opinion is that the man is a genius, but not a "very stable" one.  It should also be kept in mind that geniuses can be hit by cars because they forgot to look when crossing the street.  Me thinks Musk believes everybody is in driverless cars and he doesn't need to look any more when he crosses the street.

Steve

[Harmon Rabb]

3 hours ago, Centurian52 said:

I used to think so. But I am more and more convinced that Musk isn't actually all that smart. Just rich enough to hire smart people. The man renamed Twitter (one of the more recognizable names in the world) to X (a single letter which is impossible to trademark and which is literally used as a placeholder).

In Jake Broe's latest video Jake does not hold back what he thinks about Elon Muscovy...Excuse me, Musk.

 

[danfrodo]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

If anybody has seen the movie Glass Onion, they'll see that Ed Norton does a great job of riffing on people like Musk.

My personal opinion is that the man is a genius, but not a "very stable" one.  It should also be kept in mind that geniuses can be hit by cars because they forgot to look when crossing the street.  Me thinks Musk believes everybody is in driverless cars and he doesn't need to look any more when he crosses the street.

Steve

He's made some really good choices and saw where things were headed while others had head in sand.  But genius?

He drunk or mental illness binge bought twitter, tried to renege (even trying to wreck twitter stock value thinking it would help his case) and was forced to do the buy.  He paid $44B for a company worth maybe $20B.  And now it's worth what?  he then decided cost structure to high and binge fired over half the company w no plan or thinking.  That aint genius.  

He publicly wanted to fight his competitor, Zuckerburg of facebook.  And wanted to compare dicks.  That's not genius.

He thinks QAnon stuff actually makes sense.  That makes him an idiot, not a genius.  

He alienated the customer base for tesla cars (affluent libs) and had to dramatically cut prices.  The good news for tesla is that they are great cars and get the big tax break in US, so a lot of libs (some I know) held their nose and bought anyway, but he did serious damage.  So, not a genius.  

He thinks colonizing mars makes sense.  Except that it's insane.  Maybe he promotes this because he'll make fortune on the contracts for the stupidest endeavor in human history.  

[Letter from Prague]

The problem with the experts and frameworks is that ... everything happens only once. You will never be ready, because you can't know the future and when things happen again, they happen in a different world, because they have happened already. And you'll never know if you learned the correct lesson.

Like with COVID. My country handled the COVID really well. Possibly the best in EU. There were barely any deaths but the measures were actually being followed. The government actually said "we're the best in COVID". When the COVID ended, people were actually celebrating in the streets and everyone one happy that we managed to not **** things up for once. 

That was for the first wave.

Because the lesson everyone seemed to have learned was not that the precautions work and should be followed, but that COVID is no big deal because look, it barely hit us. So when the next waves came, nobody actually followed any rules, people were suddenly turning anti-vax (because hey it's not like we needed the vaccines in the first wave, right?) and so on.

Suddenly we were the best in COVID the other way around, with the most needless death and lockdowns and whatever else. And of course the (Russia sponsored, no doubt) brain rot got so many people - not only I watched people I previously thought smart suddenly turn into utter idiots (I actually saw a neighbour assault a retired woman who "insulted him by wearing a mask" - he's still in prison), it seemed that significant amount of people just decided to live in alternate reality where the COVID just doesn't exist, because they prefer that to the real world, and who cares it isn't true - in fact the more evidence toward the contrary, the angrier they get.

I think we eventually got overtaken by Hungary or whoever in the number of needless death due to human stupidity.

_________________________________________

Anyway, to get back on topic, I feel the Russia is also collectively living in alternate reality - and a lot of them even know it's not the true reality, but would rather lie to themselves than face the real world. Or they just believe it.

Hard nut to crack.

[Rokko]

I came across this interview with a Russian volunteer earlier today and found it interesting and worth sharing.

The video stood out to me because the guy is both unapologetic and also appears mostly honest, which is rare enough for Russians talking about this war. He also speaks fluent English and the interview is conducted in English as well.

[Kraft]

15 minutes ago, Rokko said:

I came across this interview with a Russian volunteer earlier today and found it interesting and worth sharing.

The video stood out to me because the guy is both unapologetic and also appears mostly honest, which is rare enough for Russians talking about this war. He also speaks fluent English and the interview is conducted in English as well.

I clicked to 3 random points.

Says UA treats prisoners worse than ISIS and the Chechens

Excuses UA PoWs being executed as work of "adrenaline"

Says Bucha was committed by Ukrainian artillery while Russians were handing out humanitarian aid

Hope this waste of a human being catches a bullet and doesnt live to tell the tale.

Or maybe he should enjoy ISIS prisoner treatment in his last days, I dont recall them ever doing Prisoner swaps for some reason.

 

Edited September 11, 2023 by Kraft

[JonS]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I have never gone from disliking to outright love so quickly in my entire life.  

Awww, maaaaan

[The_Capt]

Just now, JonS said:

Awww, maaaaan

C’mon the climate change answer was just too adorable.  Anyone who can face an impending human bottlenecking crisis with “ya but the rain still waters my grass and washes off the deer”…I mean how can you stay mad at that?

S’ok, I think Steve took our new pet out behind the barn on his first day.  Guess we will just have to wait for the next one.

[Rokko]

9 minutes ago, Kraft said:

I clicked to 3 random points.

Says UA treats prisoners worse than ISIS and the Chechens

Excuses UA PoWs being executed as work of "adrenaline"

Says Bucha was committed by Ukrainian artillery while Russians were handing out humanitarian aid

Hope this waste of a human being catches a bullet and doesnt live to tell the tale.

Or maybe he should enjoy ISIS prisoner treatment in his last days, I dont recall them ever doing Prisoner swaps for some reason.

 

Can't really disagree with the sentiment. I still found it interesting to hear from the other side in this manner, which is at least more honest than the "interviews" with POWs obviously lying through their teeth.

[JonS]

4 hours ago, Tux said:

Surely even if they're a bit harder to train for, maintain and supply you might still want to use them up first in an attritional war? 

That sort-of makes sense from a hardware perspective. The problem is you'd be burning up your best trained crews in your least capable equipment.

[FancyCat]

 

Quote

The price for the Russian pipeline gas for China is expected to be steadily declining in next few years, and is seen much lower than Moscow is selling to Europe, a Russian government document, seen by Reuters on Friday, shows.

According to the document, the Russian pipeline gas price for Turkey and Europe -- which have seen a drastic decline in imports of commodities from Russia due to Moscow’s actions in Ukraine -- is expected to decline this year to $501.6 per 1,000 cubic metres and $481.7 in 2024 from $983.8 in 2022.

For China, it stands at $297.3 and $271.6 in 2023 and 2024 respectively.

The document showed that the exporting price of Russian oil is seen at $71.3 per barrel comparing to $79.6 in 2022 and $63.4 expected this year, above the price cap of $60 imposed by the West. (Reporting by Reuters)

https://www.reuters.com/article/russia-china-gas-idAFL1N3AK2CE

 

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Me thinks Musk believes everybody is in driverless cars and he doesn't need to look any more when he crosses the street.

Well, if he does think that then he must also think that nobody is in a Tesla, which doesnt seem very patriotic-to-self.

Edited September 11, 2023 by JonS

[dan/california]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/11/lula-putin-g20-brazil-arrest

Lula was trying to make nice with Putin, and said he could attend the next G20 in Brazil in person. I suspect he got a very quiet phone call about his odds of getting any help with his next economic crisis if he didn't row it back. He seems to have decided getting his calls answered in D.C. was a higher priority.

[Baneman]

8 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Are you serious?

Pretty sure he is.

It is a remarkably concisely laid out and cogent method to self-analyse a position or belief.

8 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Why three and not one or ten? This is not a an high school or college level test you know. Where is the blue book for heaven's sake. So here is a start: take your three statements print them out, go let some young warriors read and laugh at them while we empower the warrior to win the war in several weeks. It's not as complicated as you write about. Firepower has a language all its own. And is not verbose. People have always attacked me first and I just come back with a short retort that frustrates them. I do so with precision not multi worded cluster bombs.  

You do so with the most nebulous position you can possibly take, if you even define it at all.

Exhibit A : "while we empower the warrior to win the war in several weeks".
Easy to say, but none of your posts have addressed how this would be done in the slightest. Whereas The_Capt has unpicked stuff down to the platoon level and not pulled any punches on where we ( the "West" ) might be coming up short in our understanding or analyses. 

I guess I'm joining the muters, there's only so many times you can scroll past yet another post. I guess that will also make me "wrong". 

 

Oops - posted a page behind "current" and redundant immediately. Apologies.

Edited September 11, 2023 by Baneman

[Astrophel]

1 hour ago, Rokko said:

I came across this interview with a Russian volunteer earlier today and found it interesting and worth sharing.

The video stood out to me because the guy is both unapologetic and also appears mostly honest, which is rare enough for Russians talking about this war. He also speaks fluent English and the interview is conducted in English as well.

Thanks for sharing.  Very insightful. It is a huge task to educate people like this to accept that Ukraine has any right to self-determination.  Ukraine is a useless state he says and a part of Russia.  He joined up "to stop the expansion of global homo".  There is no easy way to challenge his sincerely held views, and yet it needs doing.

[Tux]

55 minutes ago, JonS said:

That sort-of makes sense from a hardware perspective. The problem is you'd be burning up your best trained crews in your least capable equipment.

I agree. Not sure you’d get much more than a blank stare from Russian command, though. 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ukraine-the-latest/id1612424182?i=1000627504732

The podcast is always pretty good. Today has a very interesting, although too short, interview with some people at the U.S. air force academy. The piece that hit the hardest was the Air Force gentlemen saying the U.S. restrictions on DOD personnel in Ukraine are greatly limiting our ability to learn as much from this war as we should.

Edit: The bestbit is at the beginning of the last third.

Edited September 11, 2023 by dan/california

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, Baneman said:

Pretty sure he is.

It is a remarkably concisely laid out and cogent method to self-analyse a position or belief.

You do so with the most nebulous position you can possibly take, if you even define it at all.

Exhibit A : "while we empower the warrior to win the war in several weeks".
Easy to say, but none of your posts have addressed how this would be done in the slightest. Whereas The_Capt has unpicked stuff down to the platoon level and not pulled any punches on where we ( the "West" ) might be coming up short in our understanding or analyses. 

I guess I'm joining the muters, there's only so many times you can scroll past yet another post. I guess that will also make me "wrong". 

I think he was banned as of today. He was the smartest person in the room so will be sorely missed .  I suppose somewhere else will get the benefits of his giant ego now.  Sad for us.

[Vacillator]

6 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:

"Four oilrigs have been recaptured by Ukraine special forces."

And...back in the room.  Thanks.

[kimbosbread]

52 minutes ago, Astrophel said:

He joined up "to stop the expansion of global homo".  There is no easy way to challenge his sincerely held views, and yet it needs doing.

“Globohomo” is one of my favorite words of the last decade. It’s so silly it makes me want to establish Gayistan just to annoy these people.

[Kraft]

2 hours ago, Rokko said:

Can't really disagree with the sentiment. I still found it interesting to hear from the other side in this manner, which is at least more honest than the "interviews" with POWs obviously lying through their teeth.

Yes, it shows that these guys arent poor farmer boys who couldnt hurt a fly as some people try to make them out to be.

Although I dont think he is being very honest, the videos of the street executions in Bucha went around the world. I think he knows but is at best indifferent and wants to put on a good image for the interview.

 

[Gpig]

6 minutes ago, Kraft said:

I think he knows but is at best indifferent and wants to put on a good image for the interview

. . . And failed on all counts.

[FancyCat]

2 hours ago, Astrophel said:

Thanks for sharing.  Very insightful. It is a huge task to educate people like this to accept that Ukraine has any right to self-determination.  Ukraine is a useless state he says and a part of Russia.  He joined up "to stop the expansion of global homo".  There is no easy way to challenge his sincerely held views, and yet it needs doing.

What's the difference practically between sincere and false? None, in his position in the Russian military, he's effectively a PR speaker. If you want to change his mind, give Ukraine more missiles, tanks, APCs, artillery so he can choose to either die in Ukraine or retreat to Russia and continue spouting his views safely there.