How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kimbosbread]

30 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

And that is my point.  Kleptocratic states can not exist unless there is something easy to steal.  The only easy thing to steal is natural resources.  Ergo, no natural resources no kleptocratic states.

Sure, if you define any government that steals from the poor but has no natural resources as a non-kleptocracy. Consider though that labor and charity money are easy to steal. Poor Central American dictatorships have minimal resources, but the people running these countries still manage to live quite well. That’s kind of a kleptocracy too.

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Totally sounds like a leader recognizing the only way forward now for Russia and Ukraine is negotiations. 

 

 

Good lord, this is disgusting.  Maybe Putin & Elon M can get together and rant about 'the jews'.  That's the only 'diplomacy' I see possible right now.  At least they'd have some common ground to start from.  (Musk currently publicly saying jewish anti-defamation league is what actually killed twitter's ad revenue -- which is bat**** anti-semitic lunacy)

[danfrodo]

8 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Sure, if you define any government that steals from the poor but has no natural resources as a non-kleptocracy. Consider though that labor and charity money are easy to steal. Poor Central American dictatorships have minimal resources, but the people running these countries still manage to live quite well. That’s kind of a kleptocracy too.

Yes, I agree.  The Nicaraguan Somoza family kleptocracy is a good example of this (somozas were the ones overthrown by the sandinistas back in the early 80s).  I think this is not too off-topic since we're discussing RU govt.

Edited September 5, 2023 by danfrodo

[kevinkin]

40 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

So unless you think Biden should in a phone call threaten NATO intervention and risk Putin either calling his bluff or Biden looking humiliated by his words being false, you want high level talks to occur to do what exactly?

This is not about the current POTUS. Is about the role the USA in the world. America has a lot problems. But I want my political leadership to explain this war to the American people in a "fire side chat". If they did maybe we could gain a consensus to win. Everyone knows this war is at a turning point. How the US is not all in is cruel. We can't let people die for our fear of nuclear weapons. I recognize it is complicated and acknowledge other POVs. But don't discount my POV and that there other ways to save lives and defeat Russia.  

Edited September 5, 2023 by kevinkin

[Fenris]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Totally sounds like a leader recognizing the only way forward now for Russia and Ukraine is negotiations. 

 

 

For contrast, Zelensky again near the front meeting the troops.  Whilst it is all well stage managed the troops are armed and in full (admittedly clean) battle gear.

Quote

As part of a working trip to the Donetsk region, President Zelensky visited combat brigades that are conducting offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction.

 

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Totally sounds like a leader recognizing the only way forward now for Russia and Ukraine is negotiations. 

 

 

On surface it looks like Putin would like to secure some popularity by playing on anti-semitism widespread in Russia, but his logic here is different: Zhelensky is Jew, so placing him on the head of Nazi state is double perfidy on western behalf and proof of complete moral bankcuptcy of the West, according to Tsar.

It is interesting though, since he usually refrained from openly going into these areas (hard nats-those who are alive- of course even hold a grudge against modern Kremlin narratives for lack of particluar support in naming of this "problem").

Edited September 5, 2023 by Beleg85

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

On surface it looks like Putin would like to secure some popularity by playing on anti-semitism widespread in Russia, but his logic here is different: Zhelensky is Jew, so placing him on the head of Nazi state is double perfidy on western behalf and proof of complete moral bankcuptcy of the West, according to Tsar.

It is interesting though, since he usually refrained from openly going into these areas.

How stupid does one have to be to not see through an alleged nefarious international plot that requires something as ridiculous as (drum roll please).....   a jewish nazi.  

[dan/california]

29 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Sure, if you define any government that steals from the poor but has no natural resources as a non-kleptocracy. Consider though that labor and charity money are easy to steal. Poor Central American dictatorships have minimal resources, but the people running these countries still manage to live quite well. That’s kind of a kleptocracy too.

There definitely are dirt poor kleptocracies. The thing about the dirt poor ones though is that the only trouble they are able cause anybody outside their borders is a spray of refugees. Admittedly that does upset things when the volume is high enough, but it just doesn't hold a candle to the problems the ones with money cause.

Edited September 5, 2023 by dan/california

[Beleg85]

6 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

How stupid does one have to be to not see through an alleged nefarious international plot that requires something as ridiculous as (drum roll please).....   a jewish nazi.  

More interesting here is possible change of narrative, if we see more Putin comments like this. It is not impossible we just saw probing baloon on how society will react. Not some wide antisemitic campaign like the one in 1968, but something lighter is not out of question.

After all, somebody must be blamed for defeats and this time it is not Northern Caucasians; Tsar needs to show he shares fears of his people, from time to time.

Edited September 5, 2023 by Beleg85

[Vanir Ausf B]

We may know what happened to the destroyed Challenger 2:

"Challenger 2 in Ukraine hit a mine - which immobilized it. Mine explosion caused a fire in rear fuel tank - at which point crew evacuated. Immobilized empty Challenger2 was then targeted by Lancet drone - all according to western Def source"

https://twitter.com/bealejonathan/status/1699144029324075518

 

[FancyCat]

Dmitri Alperovitch articulates that the main reason for Prigozhin's demise is his refusal to abandon his businesses in Africa to the rest of the Russian government mafia. 

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/05/yevgeny-prigozhin-assassination-vladimir-putin-wagner-deal-revenge/

Some excerpts, tho i strongly suggest clicking and reading thru the entire piece. 

So instead of some big play for the big boss, just a underling trying to keep his grasp on his share of the empire and unfortunately not taking the hint that he was done? Alperovitch brings up some decent points, that many high ranking people in Russia have given condolences for his death, Putin himself did not keep too much distance away from him, meeting him only a week after Prig supposedly almost went for his head.

Quote

While Putin certainly lies routinely to the world community, the press, and the Russian public, doing so to an elite insider in the Russian government’s clannish and mafia-like system is much more consequential. Other security elites and oligarchs might start wondering if they themselves could fall victim to similar deception, and whether Putin’s word could ever be trusted. The unwritten oligarch rule of the Putin era is this: As long as you share the spoils of your gains with officials in power, abide by Kremlin’s wishes in whatever may be asked of you, and don’t engage in unsanctioned political activities, the system will take care of you, provide personal safety, and ensure your continued enrichment. The consequences for Putin of breaking that sacrament could mean the eventual loss of elite’s trust and backing.

The reason why Prigozhin could have been earnestly forgiven for his armed uprising is that his actions were not intended to challenge Putin’s position in power. Instead, Prigozhin was protesting—albeit with armored troop columns that shot down multiple helicopters and a command and control aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces—the plan by Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu to dismantle private military companies like Wagner and subsume them under Russian armed forces. Prigozhin’s mutiny was not about replacing the Kremlin’s leader; it was about keeping control of his mercenary troops and the highly lucrative opportunities they afforded him. The entire uprising was effectively a business dispute among Russian elites—one that resulted in murderous mayhem .

These defiant actions must have infuriated Putin. In the TV broadcast eulogy after Prigozhin’s death, Putin referred to him as a “talented businessman” who had made “serious mistakes in life,” but he also went into a strange and seemingly out-of-place level of detail on Prigozhin’s business dealings in Africa—the only specific reference to the oligarch’s vast business empire—and his engagement “in oil, gas, precious metals, and stones there.”

From Putin’s perspective, Prigozhin, rather than taking a chance at clemency and disappearing into oblivion, had the arrogance to continue to oppose Putin’s wishes. There could not and would not be a second forgiveness. Once again, Prigozhin arrogantly miscalculated a business dispute with Putin and other Russian elites, and it led to his demise.

 

Edited September 6, 2023 by FancyCat

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Dmitri Alperovitch articulates that the main reason for Prigozhin's demise is his refusal to abandon his businesses in Africa to the rest of the Russian government mafia. 

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/05/yevgeny-prigozhin-assassination-vladimir-putin-wagner-deal-revenge/

Some excerpts, tho i strongly suggest clicking and reading thru the entire piece. 

So instead of some big play for the big boss, just a underling trying to keep his grasp on his share of the empire and unfortunately not taking the hint that he was done? Alperovitch brings up some decent points, that many high ranking people in Russia have given condolences for his death, Putin himself did not keep too much distance away from him, meeting him only a week after Prig supposedly almost went for his head.

 

I like and respect Alperovitch but I would be very wary of single reason explanations of this sort. For instance, it's fairly obvious that Prigozhin's ability to defend himself from the vengeance of Shoigu, etc (even if were pretending Putin wouldn't attempt it himself) was dependent on money and power that Wagner's continued, profitable existence provided. The struggle over those assets was a factor but only in the sense that they wanted to deprive Prigozhin of that resource so that he couldn't threaten them again.  To call it simply a business dispute is like calling a potential war involving Taiwan a fight over computer chips. Here, Alperovitch is missing the forest for the trees.

[cesmonkey]

I'd like to know that the US could possible do that would dissuade North Korea from making a deal with Russia to trade more arms for access to technology.

 

[kevinkin]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

As you said, Biden even ATTEMPTING to talk with Putin directly would be a diplomatic disaster in the making.

Steve

I don't disagree with that. But I am happy I asked the question. There is nothing wrong with thought experiments. 

[dan/california]

12 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

I'd like to know that the US could possible do that would dissuade North Korea from making a deal with Russia to trade more arms for access to technology.

 

Very little, but the real mistake was made in ~1954. When South Korea rebuilt the old capital, instead starting over a couple of hundred miles south and out of any possible tube artillery range. Keep in mind that Seoul was at least as obliterated as Bakmuht is now. It probably cost more to clean it up than it would have to start over somewhere further south, but the South Koreans were attached to the symbology of Seoul. So they built one of the worlds greatest cities in range of an approximate infinity of North Korean artillery. 

 

Quote

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Seoul#/media/File:Scene_of_war_damage_in_residential_section_of_Seoul,_Korea._The_capitol_building_can_be_seen_in_the_background_(right)._-_NARA_-_531379.tif

If they hadn't done this I suspect the entire history post 1954 would have been very different.

 

[kevinkin]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

The thing about the dirt poor ones though is that the only trouble they are able cause anybody outside their borders is a spray of refugees.

Yep, the third world needs 100% complete access to birth control. And they should be paid to use it. "Paid to get laid" might work better than "Just say no".  All we can do is try. There is tremendous demographic pressure on the northern hemisphere. It does not relate to Ukraine directly so I will stop.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Just_Say_No

[danfrodo]

31 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Yep, the third world needs 100% complete access to birth control. And they should be paid to use it. "Paid to get laid" might work better than "Just say no".  All we can do is try. There is tremendous demographic pressure on the northern hemisphere. It does not relate to Ukraine directly so I will stop.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Just_Say_No

you should delete this if you have any sense whatsoever, and hope it wasn't seen by the east coast forum admins who are probably asleep

[kevinkin]

7 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

you should delete this if you have any sense whatsoever, and hope it wasn't seen by the east coast forum admins who are probably asleep

Why? They are just words and thoughts. Nothing vulgar. Nothing attacking an individual. "spray of refugees" is harder language than I used by leaps and bounds. Give me a break. 

[JonS]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

I suspect the entire history post 1954 would have been very different.

I mean ... South Korea has been a fabulous success story by practically any measure. I'm not sure how forced mass population relocation in order to make a few Americans feel better about themselves could improve on that?

Wait: were you looking for an improvement on history, or just something "very different"? If it's the latter, then sure; forced mass population relocation would change things.

Edited September 6, 2023 by JonS

[kevinkin]

9 minutes ago, JonS said:

I mean ... South Korea has been a fabulous success story by practically any measure. I'm not sure how forced mass population relocation in order to make a few Americans feel better about themselves could improve on that?

I could not say it better.

The US can and has done very good things. The question is are they random events or planned by "smart" Ivy league people in DC. There is a point were education gets in the way of common sense. My parents, for example, never went to college but I would put any part of the US Federal government in their hands. They were that smart. 

[dan/california]

South Korea has been a fabulous success story. Nor did I ever say it was a U.S. mistake, pretty sure we advised against it. And no I am not saying we should have forced the issue. But the fact remains they gave North Korea the worlds most valuable hostage, effectively. 75 years and counting and that is more of a problem every day, not less. I am sure everyone hoped the North would fade away into irrelevance, or become a Chinese province, or, or, just so happens it was a bad bet. I mean even the weather is way better in Busan and similar.

[Kinophile]

Good God he's incessant. 

[chuckdyke]

2 hours ago, kevinkin said:

I don't disagree with that. But I am happy I asked the question. There is nothing wrong with thought experiments. 

Once the first shot is fired diplomacy is over. To disguise it is pointless, because it will be a defeat. Prigozhin is an example what happens when you negotiate with putin. I am afraid it will be over when the Russian flag will be lowered at the Kremlin. 

[Fenris]

Another long twitter thread detailing a pretty grim picture of life at the front for mobilised RU men.  

Quote

Half of the soldiers from the mobilised "Leningrad Regiment" are said to have been killed fighting near Bakhmut. Survivors say they were given little equipment or ammunition, and have been maltreated by incompetent officers who sent them into deadly positions

 

 

[Kinophile]

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1699129456386834810?t=K4KCFIU_FVZ_TYMxgzV8DA&s=09

Edited September 6, 2023 by Kinophile