How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

FSB pressure has now made news from the Russian side all but worthless.

Not worthless.  We just have to adjust our Russian translators a bit.  Specifically increasing the "BS to Reality" threshold.

Grigb warned us a few months ago that Russian bloggers would be obligated to be slower to admit losses and to downplay them when they do.  At the same time they will play up the heroism and superiority of Russian forces.  We see all of that in this one blog entry:

• report the loss of a settlement days after it is already factually proven in Ukraine's hands
• make it seem like it is a "gray zone" instead of fully occupied and functional
• talk about the massive losses of time and personnel it cost Ukraine to take it
• remind everybody that Russia's soldiers are supermen, but even they can't fight on forever against suicide waves of desperate Ukrainians

The really fun bit is saying that Ukraine had several brigades "ground down" taking Robytne.  Hmm... interesting that the lead force that started in this sector 3 months ago is the 47th Mech Brigade and it is that very same brigade which is now sitting in Robytne.  Russians clearly have a different definition of what "ground down" means

Steve

[kimbosbread]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

This was discussed an infinity of pages ago, somebody actually had access to the sensors and computing power to get it done.

Edit: 

Not super precise yet.

Good enough to send an autonomous loitering munition though?

Re bayonets, I have no military experience at all but I always figured they are useful for herding prisoners around and keeping them at arms length without having to resort to warning shots.

Edited August 30, 2023 by kimbosbread

[Haiduk]

Likely situation in Verbove is getting worse for Russians

On this video Russians filmed out of Verbove, how Russian helicopters and MLRS shell UKR forces in EASTERN part of village (the wrinting of twitter author this is UKR shells Russians is wrong). 

[Haiduk]

GUR claimed in night attack on Pskov airfield 4 IL-76 were destroyed and 2 damaged

Edited August 30, 2023 by Haiduk

[Eddy]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

GUR claimed in night attack on Pskov airfield 4 IL-76 were destroyed and 2 damaged

Yes but that picture would appear to be not one of them

 

Maybe it's just an illustration of one  

Edited August 30, 2023 by Eddy

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, Eddy said:

Yes but that picture would appear to be not one of them

 

Maybe it's just an illustration of one  

Yes I've found in comments that this is old photo and edited my post. Though, the look of Pskov IL-76, I supose, was enough similar )

[Haiduk]

Damn, next aviation crash. Two Mi-8 helicopters of 18th army avaiation brigade have fallen down by unknown reason near Kramatorsk, Donetsk oblast. Six men - two crews, are lost. Investgation is opened. It could be collision, diversion or using of extreme long-range (300 km) R-37M missiles, having 300 km of range  - there were several incidents, when our jets and helicopters were shot down with this missiles from Russian territory. R-37M can be launched from MiG-31BM and Su-35

Edited August 30, 2023 by Haiduk

[Teufel]

[Teufel]

On evolving Ukrainian capabilities, primarily in UAV systems in air and at sea.

All this points to a growing sophistication in the Ukrainian strike capability. Indeed, we might now observe these operations as a separate strategic strike campaign, which is designed to generate political and strategic military effects for the Ukrainian conduct of the war.  It plays an important part in degrading Russian military capability, forcing the redeployment of air defence radars and other systems, while also demonstrating to Ukraine’s supporters that it is serious about winning the war.

Long read but well worth the time, in full;

https://mickryan.substack.com/p/a-strategic-strike-campaign

[Teufel]

Practice makes perfect!

 

[Teufel]

So it has begun, the Chinese annexations of Russia. One piece at the time and it didn’t cost ‘em a dime.

 

[Haiduk]

40 minutes ago, Teufel said:

No info about Rostov, but we have explosions in Bryansk again. Locals report it was in TV-center area

Unknown missile flies over Feodosia in Crimea. Local authorities reported UKR UAV was shot down, but fragments broke powerlines and caused fire in the building near Kerch highway

Fire in Feodosia

Edited August 30, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

One more video of Feodosia power facility hit

Locals also reported about sounds of somethong in the sky toward Russian new-built military base in Pereval'ne (rus.Pereval'noye) and shooting in area of the base. Recently UKR drones "Bober" already hit this base, were deployed 126th coastal defense brigade. GUR claimed about "dozens killed and wounded Russians", but local TGs in that time told about 3 killed, unknown number of wounded and two destroyed trucks.  

Edited August 30, 2023 by Haiduk

[akd]

Raise a division on the basis of a destroyed brigade.  Should be an interesting process.

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, akd said:

Raise a division on the basis of a destroyed brigade.  Should be an interesting process.

Historically 31st air-assault brigade had own origins in Soviet 104th airborne division. If Russia is mobilizing monthly 20-22 southands of people, they will not have enough problems to expand brigade "shtat" to divisional. What about IFVs, this is interest question... To rise production of BMD-4M/ BTR-MDM to maintain divisional set... I doubt. 

[Haiduk]

Frontline change for last two days on Velyka Novosilka diorection. While UKR troops hammer Russian positions on Zavitne Bazhannia - Staromlynivka - Novodonetske line with artillery and aviation without attempts of decisive assaults, that on western flank UKR advance between Pryyutne toward Volodyne forced Russian command to give order for withdrawal of own trops from the hills along ponds and from flank of Staromayorske. Russian logistic lines turned out under danger, so "no step back" order will paly evil joke with Russians in future, so their command gave enough logical order. So, now while main Russian forces withdraw, their screening forces tie UKR troops from fast advance. 

 

[akd]

Interesting comments from Murz on Russian junior officer / NCO losses compared to Ukrainians:

 

[Vet 0369]

22 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm looking for an "Understatement" button to click on for your post and not finding it.  Probably a good thing

The question was asked about what tricks are up the President's sleeve in the event that funding is cut for Ukraine.  The answer has already been stated that there are SOME things that can be done, but like any work around it isn't as good as the straight forward way.  There are political costs, at least, for overtly working around Congress.  So, as said, there are some limited ways around Congress not funding something.  The previous President, for example, took money out of the defense budget and used it to build some walls with Mexico.  Amazingly this was not shot down by the Supreme Court, despite it being a brazen misappropriation of funds according to standard private and public sector accounting practices.

The bigger problem, though, is that the prediction is that the entire US government will be shut down.  Not only won't Ukraine funding be a problem, but everything else that is even remotely tied to Federal spending will be affected.  We've already had one government shutdown in my lifetime and it was not pretty.

Steve

Ok, having “worked on the inside,” and having a discussed or been a party to discussions on “creative” ways to obtain money fo “pet” projects, I can say with much certainty that virtually every Administration, Agency, Department, Division, Directorate, and office unit, including the Judicial and Legislative Branches of the Government has done, and continues to do the same, no matter which Party is in power.

Regarding the U.S. Federal shutdowns, there have been four. They were one under Clinton in 1995-1996, one under Obama in 2013, and two under Trump in 2018 and in 2019. I was personally involved in the shutdown in 2013. All four shutdowns occurred basically after almost all of the Moderates in the House and Senate had either retired from office or been voted out by the two groups of extremists. Before that time, the opposing parties actually negotiated their positions in “good faith.”

Fun fact, most Federal employees actually look forward to a shutdown (starting  saving up in August for the bi-weekly income loss) because Congress has always passed a bill to pay everyone in arrears after the shutdown ends and there is a new budget. Basically extra vacation time for which they weren’t charged.

[Vet 0369]

10 hours ago, Centurian52 said:

Trenches have been used in every single war (that I can think of) since WW1, and many, many wars prior to WW1.

Edit: And bayonets were still considered an important weapon at least as late as WW2, and were still retained in many armies until very recently (still a potential backup weapon, and some armies still maintain that bayonet training is a useful way of instilling aggressiveness).

It's not so hard to see why bayonets were retained as late as WW2. Imagine you have assaulted an enemy trench or are storming a house and you find yourself in close contact with an enemy soldier. You have a bolt-action rifle, and have missed your first shot. Is it faster and less risky to work the bolt to chamber a fresh round or to thrust your rifle forward to stab the enemy with your bayonet? Stabbing is probably faster and safer in this situation.

It's harder to imagine why bayonets were retained for so long after WW2. If you are in the same situation, but you have a semi-automatic or assault rifle, then the faster and safer option is probably to just squeeze the trigger again. So you would think that semi-automatic rifles would have been the final nail in the coffin for bayonets. But, as has been pointed out, bayonets don't run out of ammo.

When I went through recruit training at Paris Island , NC, we practiced our bayonet skills with each other all the time, even when we weren’t actually involved in “formal” training. That was primarily because we had M-14 rifles with solid stocks. I don’t ever remember doing bayonet training with M-16s though because those stocks have recoil buffers and the stock could break with a good hard butt stroke to the head or the groin.

[LongLeftFlank]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ukraines-real-killing-fields-an-investigation-into-the-wars-first-aid-crisis/

Two-thirds of Ukrainian soldiers die from blood loss.... ‘You have to drag a person with your hands approximately three to five kilometres. You can’t drive there even in armoured vehicles because of the heavy shellings and mines.’

Medics, she says, try to avoid using the official first aid supplies issued to them, because of the admin that is involved.... Why should Ukraine ask for more medical equipment, when officially the shortage doesn’t really exist?

To allow for one medic for every 30 soldiers, Ukraine needs to train at least 15,000 combat medics. 

[Vet 0369]

9 hours ago, Splinty said:

The US Army and Marines still do bayonet training in basic and boot camp. But as was mentioned previously it's more about aggression and motivation than actually training to use them in combat. In any case a big knife always comes in handy. 

LOL, there is a reason EVERY Marine wants a K-bar! In fact, I still have one, and I can still shave with it, sort of!

[Vet 0369]

12 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ukraines-real-killing-fields-an-investigation-into-the-wars-first-aid-crisis/

Two-thirds of Ukrainian soldiers die from blood loss.... ‘You have to drag a person with your hands approximately three to five kilometres. You can’t drive there even in armoured vehicles because of the heavy shellings and mines.’

Medics, she says, try to avoid using the official first aid supplies issued to them, because of the admin that is involved.... Why should Ukraine ask for more medical equipment, when officially the shortage doesn’t really exist?

To allow for one medic for every 30 soldiers, Ukraine needs to train at least 15,000 combat medics. 

All marines were trained in First Aid, and that was performed only after the fire fight or assault was completed. The Corpsmen basically worked on the wounded in a Triage manner. The standing rule of a grunt was that if you perform First Aid on someone, you used their med kit, not yours.

[LongLeftFlank]

https://kyivindependent.com/isw-russian-operations-limited-by-lack-of-infantry/

Quotes the 28 Aug ISW:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-28-2023

The Russian military command has consistently relied on VDV formations as both an offensive and a defensive force and they are likely degraded from their high operational tempo. The degradation of these forces will likely weaken Russia’s ability to sustain complex defensive operations and almost certainly disrupt any Russian intent to resume offensive operations at scale.

As I recall, more important than any 'elite' status, VDV battalions were also organisationally better suited for the battlefield conditions of this particular war than the infantry-poor and roadbound BTGs of the regular Russian army.

At this point, is the remaining VDV cadre able to integrate and command an influx of mobiks and Central Asian migrants with limited Russian language?  Or do these guys just more hapless trench jockeys in sailor shirts? perhaps with a slightly higher priority for kit and resupply (I think the commander of the VDV is also still commanding all the ground forces in Ukraine now?). If the trucks can get there of course.

Edited August 31, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

29 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

As I recall, more important than any 'elite' status, VDV battalions were also organisationally better suited for the battlefield conditions of this particular war than the infantry-poor and roadbound BTGs of the regular Russian army.

True.  In practice airborne forces are effectively light infantry, which means the formations emphasize "bayonet strength" (just to keep in the theme of the last page!).  Obviously in practice they are mechanized infantry, even if on the light side.

Prewar the VDV and Spetsnaz forces had the same relative advantages over standard infantry that are found in other forces... higher levels of training, more emphasis on junior leadership, superior-than-others mindset, more flexible command, better adaptability to ad-hoc formations, wider variety of things that go BOOM, better equipment, etc.

However, as has been pointed out by many analysts, these forces are "elite" only relative to other Russian units.  And in this war, the standards have been dropping across the board, so while they likely retain a relative quality edge over regular units, that's really not saying much.  I'd say many Ukrainian regular units are superior to some of Russia's VDV units in all meaningful ways.  The Murz commentary on leadership losses and the resulting quality decrease is relevant here.

29 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

At this point, is the remaining VDV cadre able to integrate and command an influx of mobiks and Central Asian migrants with limited Russian language?  Or do these guys just more hapless trench jockeys in sailor shirts? perhaps with a slightly higher priority for kit and resupply (I think the commander of the VDV is also still commanding all the ground forces in Ukraine now?). If the trucks can get there of course.

My guess, and it is only that, is the VDV get the pick of the volunteers who sign up voluntarily.  If we presume that Russian VDV recruiters are racist (not an unreasonable assumption), that means they are going to go for the fittest, whitest, geographically western soldiers first.  Given the VDV/Spetsnaz's relatively smaller numbers, it is likely there is enough to periodically rebuild.

Whether they have the traditional VDV vehicles and equipment to rebuild is, as Hiaduk pondered last page, unlikely to run out before the manpower.

Steve

[Chibot Mk IX]

11 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1696564228331655559.html

Good points with proof and examples of how we have observer bias on these fortifications dug in the open.

Interesting read. I'm not certain if these "tree lines" remind CM players of the bocage. 

A while ago, there was a discussion on a Chinese forum where people spoke pessimistically about Ukraine's offensive. One guy listed the difficulties of the terrain. He mentioned that fighting in these tree lines is akin to fighting in the bocage. A small yet determined defender could delay the attacking force for a significant amount of time. In Normandy, under the cover of bocage walls, the German forces maneuvered into the flank of the Allied forces, using panzerschreck and LMG to harass them. In Ukraine, the open fields between the tree lines are much larger than the bocage terrain (ranging from 1km x 1km to 1km x 2km). However, with modern ATGMs' range, the defender's firepower can easily reach the other side. The good news for Ukraine is that the Russian LMGs and HMGs cannot effectively engage at long distances. Therefore, the advancing Ukrainian force will not face fire from a diagonal direction. Nevertheless, this could be bad news for the overwatching Ukrainian soldiers too, as they would be unable to assist if their comrades get bogged down by fire from the other side of the treeline.

 

*******************************************************************************************

 

This is a highly interesting claim; however, it lacks substantial evidence. While some of Ukraine's video clips record their AFV and infantry firing into the treeline, not many Russian videos depict how they fight on the ground. Some video clips give people the impression that Russians are reluctant to move outside their prepared fighting positions. Therefore, fighting like the Germans, who sent a small detachment to harass the Allied flank, doesn't align with the Russian way of fighting.

The comment above isn't meant to downplay the difficulty of fighting in treelines but rather to argue that it might not be as challenging as fighting in the bocage.