How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

Not very thrustworthy source, so treat with solid doze of scepticism, but it may be based on real events:

 

[Haiduk]

Tatarigami adds own thread to analysys of Russian defense lines. In short - you should take into accont not only visible fortification on satellite shots, but that almost each tree-plant also has own trench for infantry or at least positions for ATGMs and other heavy infantry weapon teams

 

 

Edited August 29, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Hmmm.... Well this is RUMINT, but let it bee

There are two settlements on the south, its names very similar. Here and there we have very good news, await for official info.

He obviously means Novoprokopivka and Novopokrovka. But I didn't hear any other source claimed significant succes on these directions.

 

[Haiduk]

Russia blocked Kerch bridge against maritime drones along the place of last strike, sinking several barges as booms and stretching the nets between them

 

[Haiduk]

Explosions in Pskov in airport area

PS. Russian milbloggers write about 21 kamikadze drone attack. Some hysterically claim drones were launched from NATO country (Estonia is closest)

Moment of strike.

 

Airfield "Kresty" ("Crosses") on SE outskirt of Pskov - home base of 334th military transport aviation regiment of 61st Air Army of Air Command. 

Edited August 29, 2023 by Haiduk

[FancyCat]

interesting Ukraine is targeting a base near the Baltic states, is that the closest base to NATO its hit? obviously pales vs Moscow, but like Moscow, I recall the threats and warnings Russia issued about NATO vs Russia conflict escalation occurring, and now Ukraine basically has normalized hostile drones in Moscow, hostile drones attacking facilities in Russia proper, and expanded potential zone of security to be quite wide, and quite in contrast to the start of the invasion. 

[FancyCat]

That will be a interesting day. Neptune has that sort of range? 

Quote

A Ukrainian defense official tells me that Ukraine has modified its Neptune anti-ship missiles to strike land targets and that in the not-too-distant future, they fly to Moscow and elsewhere in Russia.

 

 

[Joe982]

Ukraine retains the moral high ground.

Ukraine should continue to hit military targets and avoid civilian targets. I see no point in hitting an office tower for example.

 

[FancyCat]

There was a drone factory rumored to be ramping up near Moscow no? producing Iranian drones? That certainly counts as a military target. 

Quote

Russian state media TASS claims that four IL-76 strategic airlifters were damaged in the drone attack on Pskov airbase.

 

 

[Grossman]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

And so it begins.  The first knock-down fight in the US Congress over Ukraine funding is about to start:

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4172076-conservatives-set-to-battle-over-ukraine-funding/

For the sake of non-US posters here, I am going to describe what the situation is without inserting my personal political beliefs.  I ask that any responses to this be without political commentary.  There is absolutely no need for it and I'm going to be disappointed with anybody who can not refrain from "putting a sock in it" and keeping this thread from going off the rails.

So, on the assumption that this crowd is both mature enough and interested enough in sticking to a fact based discussion...

This is something that many people, including Americans, do not appreciate about the US political system.  If the leader of a chamber doesn't want to take up legislation proposed by the other (or the President), things instantly become very, very messy.  It doesn't matter if the overwhelming majority of the chamber (all parties) would vote in favor of it, the leader doesn't have to do anything to make a vote happen. 

This is especially true of the Republican House which has, for several decades, refused to bring forward legislation for a vote if it can't be passed by Republicans alone.  Meaning, if the Republican caucus in the House is 50.00001% not in favor of something, no vote will be called EVEN IF the Democrats and Independents are 100% in favor of it.  Actually, especially if they are 100% in favor of it (no Republican leadership would survive such an event).  But lately, due to the internal instability of the Republican party generally, and the House caucus specifically, it doesn't even get to that point. 

The leadership is vulnerable to being voted out and so all it takes is a solid minority to be opposed to something and the leadership buckles in order to stay in its positions.  At the moment there's about 70 (32% of total) House Republicans that are on the record of not being in favor of sending more aid to Ukraine.  Of that, a sizeable chunk (unknown, but likely 20%+ of total) are predisposed to threatening to seek new leadership over this and other issues.  The last leadership election was the most contentious and prolonged in US history, something that the current leadership is well aware of.

The bottomline here is that the Republican House leadership is in a bind.  They either do what the minority of their party wants or get tossed out of their leadership positions.  This effectively means about 10% of the membership of Congress control national policy.  The Founding Fathers referred to it as the "tyranny of the minority" and they tried to ensure it didn't happen.  Obviously there's a few checks and balances missing in order to do that.

Nobody knows what is going to happen next, but whatever it is won't be as beneficial to Ukraine as it has been before.  This was predicted as soon as the Republicans took over the previous session (the one that was about to end) in both House and Senate worked together across party lines to buy Ukraine some time.  That time, unfortunately, has run out.

Steve

Steve. In my view support for Ukraine (give them all thy need) is solid and enthusiastic among House and Senate republicans.  There is a small outspoken minority opposed, however the strength of feeling amongst those in favour will not permit compromise. In other words support for Ukraine is non-negotiable. The big risk in the US is change of President.  

 

[Letter from Prague]

20 minutes ago, Joe982 said:

Ukraine retains the moral high ground.

Ukraine should continue to hit military targets and avoid civilian targets. I see no point in hitting an office tower for example.

 

Wasn't it Russian Ministry of Defence office tower or something?

[fry30]

“Outspoken”… you can say that again 

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Explosions in Pskov in airport area

PS. Russian milbloggers write about 21 kamikadze drone attack. Some hysterically claim drones were launched from NATO country (Estonia is closest)

Moment of strike.

Russians reported 4 IL-76 damaged. So  likely more.

Quite a lot of fires for small drones...multiple fuel depots or ammo stores were hit? Quite exciting news, we will probably know more tomorrow morning. VDV has bad luck lately (Pskov is also base for 76th Division).

 

Edited August 29, 2023 by Beleg85

[FancyCat]

Gosh, Ukraine knows how to make a scene. 

Quote

There are additional reports on social media of explosions in Tula, Moscow, and Bryansk in Russia this evening after the successful strike in Pskov. It's possible these are sonic booms from scrambling Russian jets responding to the attack. Will update if evidence tk the contrary.

 

 

[FancyCat]

 

Quote

1/ Pskov airbase was PACKED tonight. At least 22 airframes can be seen in this Sentinel-2 snapshot from the 16th of the month. Almost all of these are Il-76 strategic airlifters.

2/ A later pic from the 21st showed at least -5, +1 Il-76s, leaving the count as something like 16-18 planes.

 

 

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

I don't know how you define ethnicity in the USA.

Personally, I'm going by this definition:

 

Ethnicity

a large group of people with a shared culture, language, history, set of traditions, etc., or the fact of belonging to one of these groups

 

https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/ethnicity

 

LOL, I can accept this definition, however ….. Since you mentioned U.S.A., the country of the United States of America is an outlier that might just throw that definition into the dust bin. The population of the USA is made up of many, many, many small “ethnic,” as defined by culture, language, religion, heritage, etc. populations. Collectively, this “population” is known as “American.” If ethnicity is defined simply by shared culture, heritage, religion, language, etc., then would the majority of Canadians, Bermuda, Bahamas, etc. be defined as Americans, while those countries with a Spanish or Brazilian culture and heritage (including the Quebec Quois (probably spelled wrong) in Canada not be classified as “Americans?” As it is, I believe the term American originally applied to any native or citizen of any country in North, Central, and South America because the “Old World Powers” wanted to separate them culturally from Europeans.

These terms are nothing more than labels that people apply to others to allow themselves to feel superior to the “subsets” in some way. That practice is more commonly known as RACISM. And yes, the Americans have engendered more than enough of that, but probably no more than any other existing country in the world.

[Centurian52]

52 minutes ago, Grossman said:

Steve. In my view support for Ukraine (give them all thy need) is solid and enthusiastic among House and Senate republicans.  There is a small outspoken minority opposed, however the strength of feeling amongst those in favour will not permit compromise. In other words support for Ukraine is non-negotiable. The big risk in the US is change of President.  

 

I wouldn't worry about that. That is, at the earliest, still 17 months away (a new President would take office in January 2025). It's basically a given that the war will go into 2024, but I'm still hopeful that the Russians will be beaten by 2025 (at the very least, they will be in even worse shape than they are right now). And considering that this is mostly a bipartisan issue, there is a fair to decent chance that a new president would still support aiding Ukraine anyway.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Explosions in Pskov in airport area

PS. Russian milbloggers write about 21 kamikadze drone attack. Some hysterically claim drones were launched from NATO country (Estonia is closest)

Moment of strike.

 

Airfield "Kresty" ("Crosses") on SE outskirt of Pskov - home base of 334th military transport aviation regiment of 61st Air Army of Air Command. 

 

18 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Gosh, Ukraine knows how to make a scene. 

 

 

Ukraine program to produce and upgraded Shaheed type drone in quantity seems to be going rather better than Russia's. Moscow's electricity supply needs to go away the next time the Russians shoot at Ukrainian infrastructure.

[JonS]

20 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

That practice is more commonly known as RACISM.

Well, all good things can be used in bad ways, sure. All men have a penis, but we aren't all rapists, for example.

Ethnicity also isn't a binary - a person can legitimately be multiple things at once. I'm a Wellingtonian (which comes with a different set of assumptions than being either a Mainlander or an Aucklander, although neither of those distinctions probably mean much outside the country), and a Kiwi (similar but different to Australian), and sort-of British (somewhat similar but also very different to American), and sort-of European (different to Asian or African). None of them completely describe me, but all of them provide some degree of insight, depending on the audience. Theres nothing inherently racist about any of those categories, even though of course Wellingtonians are naturally superior to Aucklanders.

Edited August 29, 2023 by JonS

[Vet 0369]

10 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

I wouldn't worry about that. That is, at the earliest, still 17 months away (a new President would take office in January 2025). It's basically a given that the war will go into 2024, but I'm still hopeful that the Russians will be beaten by 2025 (at the very least, they will be in even worse shape than they are right now). And considering that this is mostly a bipartisan issue, there is a fair to decent chance that a new president would still support aiding Ukraine anyway.

The most probable “danger” to the U.S. for Ukraine is that the Federal Budget ends at 23:59 on September 30, 2023. Without a new budget already in place, the Congress will have to pass a number of Continuing Resolutions for the Executive Branch Departments to continue to operate. In this current Congress of basically two extremist groups of Legislators and Senators, with few moderates left on either side, based on my own past experiences, no budget will be passed until at least the end of December.

[Beleg85]

Something hit in Brianks, too. Seems like larger action.

 

[Fenris]

Chosen Company doing a trench assault.  Unit is foreign volunteers serving with the 59th Motorized Brigade.  There's been a few clips recently from Ryan O'Leary who is with this unit (the one where the RU man ran back into his trench and then ran away again).  There's nothing graphic besides an aussie's colourful language.  Is quite a change hearing people communicating all in English.

 

I think this is the original upload which is age restricted - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eji0u88nIoc

Edited August 29, 2023 by Fenris

[The_Capt]

33 minutes ago, JonS said:

Well, all good things can be used in bad ways, sure. All men have a penis, but we aren't all rapists, for example.

Ethnicity also isn't a binary - a person can legitimately be multiple things at once. I'm a Wellingtonian (which comes with a different set of assumptions than being either a Mainlander or an Aucklander, although neither of those distinctions probably mean much outside the country), and a Kiwi (similar but different to Australian), and sort-of British (somewhat similar but also very different to American), and sort-of European (different to Asian or African). None of them completely describe me, but all of them provide some degree of insight, depending on the audience. Theres nothing inherently racist about any of those categories, even though of course Wellingtonians are naturally superior to Aucklanders.

But gunners are right next to logisticians in the combined arms pecking order, unlike loggies they have to go forward for showers.  But I supposed gunners are not a race, more a creed really.

[JonS]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

But gunners are right next to logisticians in the combined arms pecking order, unlike loggies they have to go forward for showers.  But I supposed gunners are not a race, more a creed really.

We're more of a breed - arms so long your knuckles drag on the ground isnt a common evolutionary advantage.

Edited August 30, 2023 by JonS

[BlackMoria]

16 minutes ago, JonS said:

More of a breed - arms so long your knuckles drag on the ground isnt a common evolutionary advantage.

Hey.  I am a retired gunnery officer.  I resent resemble that remark.

Edited August 30, 2023 by BlackMoria