How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

31 minutes ago, Teufel said:

Speaking of going after one and other, if true, the Russians can’t argue they are winning!

I'm hoping this is true.  this is the kind of thing that could be a game-changer.  Having defenders in some sector attacked and knowing they were forced to retreat is something a commander can work with a lot better than having a sector defense just disappear and maybe not even knowing it until UKR has infantry occupying it.  Could really unhinge things.  Let's hope it's true & hope for more.  Lack of food is VERY promising.  You can get by being short on ammo if you're not under heavy pressure and you've got arty/mortar support.  but no one can get by w/o food even if not under pressure.

[dan/california]

Was brought up in

 

Quote

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/28/2190142/-Ukraine-Update-As-the-Surokivin-Line-starts-to-crumble-the-general-who-made-it-is-still-missing

The title says it all, Putin has purged the guy who designed the defensive plan, and for good measure he has purged several of hi subordinate commanders. It, and the resulting cracks, are starting to show.

[Fenris]

Some armour in action I think the emblem is the 3rd Assault Brigade which has been operating north of Bakhmut from memory.  Looks like a grad strike or two at towards the end as well.

 

[danfrodo]

15 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Was brought up in

 

The title says it all, Putin has purged the guy who designed the defensive plan, and for good measure he has purged several of hi subordinate commanders. It, and the resulting cracks, are starting to show.

I don't understand -- what is believed to have been missed that was something important?

 

[dan/california]

28 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I don't understand -- what is believed to have been missed that was something important?

 

Massive fortifications on the actual road to Tokomak , but some vey unfinished stuff on the flanks. I am wondering if this was the same very poor trenches we got film of today.

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Massive fortifications on the actual road to Tokomak , but some vey unfinished stuff on the flanks. I am wondering if this was the same very poor trenches we got film of today.

no, but wait, DITCHES!  THERE'S DITCHES!

[Vet 0369]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

I agree in principle, but 

That is ten percent or less, maybe much less, of what is needed if we are fighting China anytime soon.

And, if the USMC felt it wouldn’t need long-range artillery, why would it need Tomahawks? I can guarantee that the USN will have a Task Force assigned to any Marine operation. The USN is there to support and protect any landing, as it has in every Marine landing during, and since WW II (except the opening phase of the Solomons when the Navy support ships were ordered out of the area due to fear of a Japanese Naval counterattack). The Navy will have Tomahawks if they are needed, and the Marines will “Seize and secure advanced naval bases” as they always have.

Marines like to refer to the Navy as their taxi drivers, but the Marines also work very hard to ensure the Navy has a parking space, gas station, and Quik-Mart available for it.

Edited August 28, 2023 by Vet 0369
Addition

[dan/california]

14 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

And, if the USMC felt it wouldn’t need long-range artillery, why would it need Tomahawks? I can guarantee that the USN will have a Task Force assigned to any Marine operation. The USN is there to support and protect any landing, as it has in every Marine landing during, and since WW II (except the opening phase of the Solomons when the Navy support ships were ordered out of the area due to fear of a Japanese Naval counterattack). The Navy will have Tomahawks if they are needed, and the Marines will “Seize and secure advanced naval bases” as they always have.

Marines like to refer to the Navy as their taxi drivers, but the Marines also work very hard to ensure the Navy has a parking space, gas station, and Quik-Mart available for it.

The theory as I understand it is to be able give the Chinese navy the same shore based A2AD problems they are giving us. Park them in highly camouflaged positions on various small Islands and make the Chinese come find them, then make them very sorry. You can spend a lot of time drawing circles in the around Taiwan and a slew of other Islands trying to figure what fleet can operate in what missile envelope. Then go but what if the Marines had some missiles on THIS spot.

[dan/california]

https://www.marcorsyscom.marines.mil/Portfolios/Ground-Combat-Element-Systems/Long-Range-Fires/

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.dvidshub.net/news/449864/11th-marine-regiment-activates-first-long-range-missile-battery

The new battery, which falls directly under 11th Marines, is designed to enhance the division’s and the joint force’s long-range strike and eventually sea denial capability and lethality.

 

Apologies for the scattered posting. But the General idea seems to be to park units like this on places the Chinese would find them both inconvenient, and difficult to attack. I fully agree with the strategy, I just think it needs a massive increase in resources.

Edited August 28, 2023 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Teufel said:

Steve argued few pages back about half assed preparation of trenches and defenses. This trench be like knee deep in best case. Gras growing on the dugout so can’t argue didn’t have time to finish it before being assaulted, must been like this for months. I guess Russians will continue to amaze until the very end.

 

We've seen positions like this before in several sectors.  I wonder if it is an older trench that never got improved and only now Ukraine got a hold of it.  The corpse looks pretty well decomposed.

Steve

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

And, if the USMC felt it wouldn’t need long-range artillery, why would it need Tomahawks? I

As I recall it, the USMC got rid of it's long range guns because

i) like tanks, they're of little use on small islands,

But mostly because

ii) they'd have tomahawk et al to deal with bvr naval threats.

So, basically;

Guns = nice

Guns + missiles = wait, what am I supposed to do with all this crap now?

Missiles = niiiiice

(Specific to USMC/western pacific conops)

 

Edited August 29, 2023 by JonS

[kimbosbread]

5 hours ago, dan/california said:

That is ten percent or less, maybe much less, of [munitions] needed if we are fighting China anytime soon.

 

4 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

18 Tomahawk is what, one salvo? Meanwhile Japan is planning to buy 400 of them for deterring China, according to recent Perun video.

 

1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

And, if the USMC felt it wouldn’t need long-range artillery, why would it need Tomahawks? I can guarantee that the USN will have a Task Force assigned to any Marine operation.

The Chinese will have well over 400  PLAN ships at their disposal (and hundreds or thousands of “civilian” ships if needed) if they decide to get froggy, and we can assume at least some of their equipment is good, and the operators are competent. And the mainland has lots of missiles and rockets, and can manufacture more in a hurry. That’s the competition. There is a good chance the Chinese can sink any USN assets close to Taiwan other than submarines very quickly. How do you combat this?

155mm artillery, even guided doesn’t have the range needed, and requires trained operators. Smarter munitions require less operator training, and less ammunition to hit a target at longer distances, in theory. Of course, when all your radar and satellites are down, how do you find your targets? Probably small cheapo reconnaissance drones.

The marines need lots of heavy missiles, but also smaller cheaper stuff. A number of pages back I suggested a poverty cruise missile with a thermobaric warhead to punch into the bridge of funnel of a smaller ship. Something you can buy for less than $100k, vs $5+m or whatever tomahawks cost nowadays. Ukaine’s concept is complimentary: A jetski full of HE. Super cheap, long range, and if these things carry a few hundred kilos of HE, that’s enough to wreck most ships. The US military is obsessed with expensive fancy weaponry. I wish there would be the OPFOR version of procurement to fight against this.

EDIT: And none of this takes into account re-supply across the Pacific, which will be challenging. 13 tomahawks won’t make a difference. 500 sea baby’s will.

Edited August 29, 2023 by kimbosbread

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-28-2023

Ukrainian strikes reportedly damaged Russian aircraft and equipment at an airfield in Kursk Oblast on August 27. RBK-Ukraine cited Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) sources that SBU military counterintelligence conducted a drone strike on an airfield near Kursk City on the night of August 27, damaging four Russian Su-30 fighter aircraft, one MiG-29 fighter aircraft, and radars for a S-300 missile system and two Pantsir missile systems.

 

This is a huge hit if confirmed.

The other highlights

Quote

 

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian officials formally acknowledged that Ukrainian forces liberated Robotyne amid continued Ukrainian advances in western Zaporizhia Oblast and near Bakhmut.
• The Russian military command continues to expend relatively elite Russian airborne forces by deploying these troops to defend vulnerable positions against Ukrainian counteroffensives.
• A Ukrainian intelligence official indicated that Russian forces may have marginally replenished their stocks of high-precision missiles through conservation in the summer of 2023.
• Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces may intend to resume a wider campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure in the fall of 2023, but assessed Russia likely has not replenished its missile stocks to sustain a campaign on the scale of the winter 2022-2023 strikes.
• Ukrainian officials assessed that any upcoming Russian strike campaign may employ new tactics that use fewer missiles and more drones.
• Russian milbloggers continued to criticize the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) for ignoring ultranationalists’ complaints over the mistreatment of a Southern Military District (SMD) brigade operating in the Kherson direction.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in western Donetsk, and did not make any confirmed advances.
• Russian lawmakers and the Russian information space expressed varied opinions about a proposed Russian State Duma bill that would deprive individuals of their acquired Russian citizenship for evading military registration and mobilization.
• The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on August 28 that partisans created an explosion at the barracks of a Chechen “Akhmat-1” Rosgvardia riot police (OMON) unit in Enerhodar in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.

 

Edited August 29, 2023 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

EDIT: And none of this takes into account re-supply across the Pacific, which will be challenging. 13 tomahawks won’t make a difference. 500 sea baby’s will.

Clearly Ukraine has already come to this conclusion

Link to the article for you non-Twitter types:

"Navy formed a brigade of maritime drones"

https://militaryland.net/news/navy-formed-a-brigade-of-maritime-drones/

 

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

This is interesting... according to one of Zelensky's advisors, the West has given Ukraine explicit clarification that Crimea is fair game for the use of provided weaponry.  I know we've all suspected this, and seen some indications it was true, but as far as I can remember this is the highest level confirmation we've seen:

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Map with approximate forces marked in the Robotyne area:

You can tell how Russia views the status of this area because it moved TikTok warriors back to the second line of defenses.  The last thing Russia wants to do is put its elite fighters into harm's way

By my quick count Ukraine has committed 4 of its "new" brigades to this sector since the start of the counter offensive:

• 47th Mech
• 82nd Air Assault
• 116th Mech
• 118th Mech

Steve

[Carolus]

The first GLSDB launchers are supposed to arrive this autumn, and September is already around the corner (time really flies as you get older).

I expect this further diversification of long-range weapons will be a welcome addition to the existing Ukrainian arsenal. 

With 120km it has roughly twice the range of GMLRS and munitions will be more easily available than for Ukraine's other longer range assets like SS/SCALP (and since the launcher will be some sort of truck, I am sure they will deploy them as carefully as HIMARS, of which there has not been a single confirmed loss as of yet).

That will put more pressure on the land bridge regardless of progress on the ground.

Edited August 29, 2023 by Carolus

[Letter from Prague]

2 hours ago, Carolus said:

The first GLSDB launchers are supposed to arrive this autumn, and September is already around the corner (time really flies as you get older).

I expect this further diversification of long-range weapons will be a welcome addition to the existing Ukrainian arsenal. 

With 120km it has roughly twice the range of GMLRS and munitions will be more easily available than for Ukraine's other longer range assets like SS/SCALP (and since the launcher will be some sort of truck, I am sure they will deploy them as carefully as HIMARS, of which there has not been a single confirmed loss as of yet).

That will put more pressure on the land bridge regardless of progress on the ground.

According to the Internet^(tm) GLSDB is launched from MLRS or HIMARS pods. So no new trucks required.

[Carolus]

29 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

According to the Internet^(tm) GLSDB is launched from MLRS or HIMARS pods. So no new trucks required.

Aye, that's the intention.

When the GLSDB was approved for delivery to Ukraine at the end of last / beginning of this year, Boeing and Saab announced that they will produce a few new truck-like vehicles for Ukraine because ensuring the compatibility to HIMARS or MLRS would take longer than that.

Edited August 29, 2023 by Carolus

[cesmonkey]

49 minutes ago, Carolus said:

Aye, that's the intention.

When the GLSDB was approved for delivery to Ukraine at the end of last / beginning of this year, Boeing and Saab announced that they will produce a few new truck-like vehicles for Ukraine because ensuring the compatibility to HIMARS or MLRS would take longer than that.

It seems anything that can be delayed, will be delayed.

[Bulletpoint]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

You can tell how Russia views the status of this area because it moved TikTok warriors back to the second line of defenses.  The last thing Russia wants to do is put its elite fighters into harm's way

I think I read somewhere that the reason the Kadyrov troops are kept behind the lines is not for prestige reasons but that they are basically blocking troops - since they are not ethnic Russians, they are used to terrorise the actual Russian troops and keep them in line.

And since they are spared actual combat, their losses are low and their morale and allegiance are kept high. Any truth to that?

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

I think I read somewhere that the reason the Kadyrov troops are kept behind the lines is not for prestige reasons but that they are basically blocking troops - since they are not ethnic Russians, they are used to terrorise the actual Russian troops and keep them in line.

And since they are spared actual combat, their losses are low and their morale and allegiance are kept high. Any truth to that?

They block anyone who is wearing an army uniform and running away. Kadyrov troops are as ethnic russians as any other russian. What is even an "ethnic russian"? If a soldier from Tyva is an ethnic russian why a guy from Chechnya isn't?

[Bulletpoint]

22 minutes ago, kraze said:

They block anyone who is wearing an army uniform and running away. Kadyrov troops are as ethnic russians as any other russian. What is even an "ethnic russian"? If a soldier from Tyva is an ethnic russian why a guy from Chechnya isn't?

I don't think anyone considers the Tuvans to be ethnic Russians either.

The question was about whether the Kadyrovites are held back for prestige reasons as "TikTok soldiers" or because they make for very effective blocking troops.

For whatever reason. Ethnicity being one possibility.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

I think I read somewhere that the reason the Kadyrov troops are kept behind the lines is not for prestige reasons but that they are basically blocking troops - since they are not ethnic Russians, they are used to terrorise the actual Russian troops and keep them in line.

And since they are spared actual combat, their losses are low and their morale and allegiance are kept high. Any truth to that?

There's three reasons they are MOSTLY kept away from the fighting.  The first is that technically they are for internal security as they are part of Rosviguardia.  Second, occupying foreign land always requires security forces, so keeping them in the rear serves a definite purpose which also is in keeping with Rosviguardia duties.  Third, Kadyrov and Putin know the paper tigers will get slaughtered just like everybody else if they go to the front.  That would not be good for either leader politically, so with few exceptions they are kept out of harm's way.

Their use as barrier troops is also a fact, however this isn't a distinctive role as regular Russian army forces are also used for that task as well as other tasks.

The one general exception to Kadyrov's forces staying out of the front is the Akhmat units (IIRC theoretically a brigade).  They have occasionally done some actual fighting and are promoted by Russians as an "elite" force.  Yet these are they guys that keep getting shuffled further south as Ukraine advances.  Hence my crack at them.

Steve