How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

I wonder, how our diversion group could land to destroy radar site, if it located from the side of cliffs, where no place to land personnel?

This is typical landscape of Tarkhankut from the south, closesest place to radar site

 

Possible landing zones only on northern part, were the beach and camping and from the west, where lighthouse, village Mayak and barrack of radar personnel. More lileky this could be a raid on barrack. But maybe later some video will appear.

Edited August 24, 2023 by Haiduk

[paxromana]

13 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Yes and Santa Clauss is real. 

Or maybe it's the Red Queen? believing many impossible things before brekkie?

Edited August 24, 2023 by paxromana

[Haiduk]

First videos of "Artan" volunteer GUR unit of their Crimean raid

 

[chuckdyke]

4 minutes ago, paxromana said:

Or maybe it's the Red Queen? believing many impossible things before brekkie?

I gave Britannica as reference but you guys still know better. Italy was beaten because the army really didn't fight their natural allies against their natural enemies the Austrians. Mussolini was overrated by Hitler imagine if they had a beter motivation. The Italians should have been able to be able to win in the Mediterranean but the hearts and mind of the armed forces were not into it. Suez Canal was the objective without it Britain was lost. Afrika Korps compared what they had in the Soviet Union was a sideshow. But the Suez Canal was the price. 

[Haiduk]

UKR JDAM hit the building in Novoprokopivka - next strongpoint after Robotyne.

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1694586695302222128

Maby "a few moments before". Air Forces commander lt.general Mykola Oleshchuk puts own autograph on JDAM, mounted under Su-27 wing

[LongLeftFlank]

34 minutes ago, paxromana said:

Or maybe it's the Red Queen? believing many impossible things before brekkie?

Can you all take this North Africa DAK red herring to another thread, s.v.p.?

[Seedorf81]

18 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

I gave Britannica as reference but you guys still know better. Italy was beaten because the army really didn't fight their natural allies against their natural enemies the Austrians. Mussolini was overrated by Hitler imagine if they had a beter motivation. The Italians should have been able to be able to win in the Mediterranean but the hearts and mind of the armed forces were not into it. Suez Canal was the objective without it Britain was lost. Afrika Korps compared what they had in the Soviet Union was a sideshow. But the Suez Canal was the price. 

Before Steve wakes up and tells us (rightly so) to shut it, because we are waaaaay of topic, just some detailed information from better informed sources than Brittanica.

https://www.nationalww2museum.org/war/articles/drive-nowhere-myth-afrika-korps-1941-43

Lots of facts. No oil, no Suez-canal as initial goal, Rommel's insubordination, too small a expeditionary corps and supplies for strategic goals, and so on.

(My last post on this subject.)

[Seedorf81]

1 minute ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Can you all take this North Africa DAK red herring to another thread, s.v.p.?

Yup, crossposted but, if I had read this before I posted, I would not have posted.

Sorry.

 

[Seedorf81]

"Norway also decides to donate F-16's to Ukraine"

No numbers available yet.

[Haiduk]

UKR TG "Sniper speaks" aboud southern front

Now we have the best tendency on southern direction. Almost each day we have an advance. If compare this with two previous months - the difference is significant. But our losses should be less. We have no right to loss even with 1:5 ratio (means 1 UKR fot 5 Russians), but we have about 1:2. I remind we are in offensive. Our artillery brings to us 50 % of success, but there is never a lot of artilelry as well as an experience of firing among artillerymen.    

 

[Haiduk]

GUR clarified own words about "operation is ongoing". 

We conduct a complex of actions, this is not story of one day. Yesterday we destroyed S-400, today we landed our troops in Mayak village. Operation is ongoing, so no details for now. This is complex work, which shows we can reach Crimea not only with a weapon, but also with troops. Today all tasks were acomplished, our troops withdrew without losses   

[The_Capt]

7 hours ago, FancyCat said:

I would disagree, they absolutely need worldwide sentiment! India, China, Iran, other states whom Russia exports to for absolutely needed imports and currency to keep their economy afloat, in the event that Russia loses the Donbas and Crimea, those states have to continue weighing supporting Russia, assisting it avoid sanctions, exporting needed military hardware vs increasing sanction and Western pressure to stop supporting Russia. 

For example, consider China, say they want to keep sapping NATO strength, so they keep supporting Russia? If Russia loses the Donbas and Crimea, and continues to attempt to lob missiles and drones, what does China get out of supporting Russia still? They can't take back the Donbas or Crimea, NATO anti-air and anti-drone weaponry flow into Ukraine, attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure have already shown decreasing utility. What does China get back from Russia conticing a war of missile lobbing and civilians dying? Nothing, as war or no war, Russian exports must go to China anyway. 

As for sponsoring terror and insurgent action.....i think Russia has way more to fear from Ukraine on that front, we have Ukraine conducting assassinations, deploying drones in Russia's rear today, attacking air bases, refineries, threatening Russia's oil exports via the Black Sea....a situation where Ukraine retakes all territory, Russia is reduced to lobbing missiles, looks terrible from a international perspective, and recall the point today, where Ukrainian drones and missiles smack Russian airbases and skyscrapers, consider the extended viability of Ukraine justifying further attacks on Russian soil in response to Russian terror when Ukraine's territorial wishlist is fulfilled and the West can't gripe and groan about scaring the Russian bear. 

So your theory is that the BRICS (who just welcomed Putin with open arms) is going to sacrifice their own energy security and stop buying Russian oil and gas because Russia loses Crimea and Donbas?  This, after we can barely get the West to stop buying Russian cheap gas.  Also, somehow the Russian arms industry which is the second largest on the planet, is going to also simple shut down and grind to a halt?  Finally, you are only talking about means here, the overall Russian Will for revenge/retribution/whatever they come up with likely goes up after a humiliating defeat in Ukraine.  Please point out a case in history where Russia does not hold a grudge.

Russia won’t just be lobbing missiles, it will be providing direct support to all those people in the Donbas and Crimea who still sees themselves as Russian and want to make trouble.  The entire region will likely be an open wound for decades unless something fundamentally changes inside Russia to which Donbas and Crimea are not decisive, they are not the only ways Russian Will can break.  The break of Russian willpower needs to collapse somewhere else on something else with a western engineered/assisted soft landing.  You appear to have what I tell my students is “scope eye”.  A narrow solution - a theory of victory with single points of failure.  By this logic if Ukraine cannot retake Crimea and Donbas they have lost the war?  This is also false as they too can freeze a conflict.

The rub in all this is not Ukrainian or Russian ability to wage war, it is in western risk acceptance.  So far we have been cautious and extremely deliberate in escalation and support.  If this conflict freezes we may actually have to take some serious risks in reconstruction and invest in Ukraine, as well as redefining risk calculus of military alliances.  And that is frankly far more serious and challenging than the military problem set.

[Haiduk]

Kherson direction

Russian Tunguska was damaged by artilelry fire near Oleshky and BREM-1 ACRV arrived to tug it, but also was damaged by artillery. Abandoned vehciles were repeatedly stroke by FPV drones

One of Russian milbloggers, who yesterday told about terrible situation near Kozachi Laheri and complete incapability of 205th brigade to change situation, today issued an audio, where he described situation, how the unit of 205th brigade turned out blocked on one of islands and already has six KIAs. The commanders do nothing to save pesonnel, which already hasn't food and water - the blogger told he pesonally sent them some food, water and cigaretets by drones, because "guys already have been diunking the water directly from Dnipro" 

Edited August 24, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

15 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

it will be providing direct support to all those people in the Donbas and Crimea

All this people will moslty escape with Russians. You overestimate the level of readiness of locals to resist with arms in own hands. Many of locals are indifferent and just recognize the power of victorious side. About Donbas... Many of men already mobilized and dead - local LDPR units now mostly replenish with Russian mobiks.

Edited August 24, 2023 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

Some channels show this video as reportedly taking place during daring commando raid.

 

[Seedorf81]

Dutch army delivers 950 extra "Man Portable Line Charges" (MPLC) to Ukraine.

50 were already sent, these new ones get "speedy delivery".

[Panserjeger]

1 hour ago, Seedorf81 said:

"Norway also decides to donate F-16's to Ukraine"

No numbers available yet.

Of the 57 F-16s in Norway's inventory 32 are currently being prepared to be handed over to Romania and there is a contract for the sale of an additional 12 to Draken International but this contract is yet to be approved.

https://www.regjeringen.no/no/aktuelt/norge-har-solgt-32-f-16-jagerfly-til-romania/id2983661/

No details yet if the the F-16s to Ukraine is part of the Romanian batch or not.

[poesel]

Sorry

[The_Capt]

39 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

All this people will moslty escape with Russians. You overestimate the level of readiness of locals to resist with arms in own hands. Many of locals are indifferent and just recognize the power of victorious side. About Donbas... Many of men already mobilized and dead - local LDPR units now mostly replenish with Russian mobiks.

You mean how the Russians underestimated the readiness of Ukrainian local to “resist with their own hands”?  Here is something the first month of this war taught us, and we should not forget…it doesn’t take too many enabled and empowered locals to really mess up a conventional military day.  And it will be deeply in Russia’s interest to enable and empower them.  

I think this assumption that the LNR/DPR citizenry are sheeple who will simply bow to whoever is extremely shortsighted and not supported by the 8 year war that happened before this one.  Hey if they do roll over and happily accept reintegration that is great, but to bet the bank on that is not a risk, it is a gamble.  

We can debate this round and round, but I simply do not agree that retaking Crimea and Donbas automatically lead to a Ukrainian total victory.  In fact retaking would only happen after the decisive collapse of the entire RA in the theatre.  Further, at that point the idea that Russia would 1) stop holding a grudge and 2) somehow be incapable of violent action within Ukraine in order to convince itself that the war was still on…are both very weak assumptions.  Finally, the root of this war is not addressed by either retaking land or failure of the RA.  That resides deeply in Russian conative frameworks that need to be re-wired completely and won’t be under the current regime. 

The reason why this thinking on Crimea and Donbas is so wrong, in my opinion, is that if Ukraine does not retake these regions then the narrative quickly becomes one of defeat for Ukraine and that is toxic in western circles because we have backed so many losers in the last 30 years we are spooked by the very idea of it happening again.

Russia needs to negotiate with its own defeat, no one is going to be able to do it for them in this war.  We are not in a war where force of arms will get Russia to accept anything.  Force of the Russian people is another thing but as we can all see, we are not there yet.  My greatest concern is that we are likely going to need a Plan B that includes rebuilding Ukraine and somehow pulling it into a security mechanism even if this war is still going on, which means real risk for the west…something we are not very good at right now.  We took them all in the last two decades and got burned.  

[Haiduk]

Fresh meme )

[Kraft]

16 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

You mean how the Russians underestimated the readiness of Ukrainian local to “resist with their own hands”?  Here is something the first month of this war taught us, and we should not forget…it doesn’t take too many enabled and empowered locals to really mess up a conventional military day.  And it will be deeply in Russia’s interest to enable and empower them.  

I think this assumption that the LNR/DPR citizenry are sheeple who will simply bow to whoever is extremely shortsighted and not supported by the 8 year war that happened before this one.  Hey if they do roll over and happily accept reintegration that is great, but to bet the bank on that is not a risk, it is a gamble.  

Not really about what UA total victory looks like, but this Point: Most of those who are eager signed up years ago, the rest were all pulled off the streets before the begin of Russian mobilisation.

The old and unfit are left, they can still cause issues with sharing information and subversive actions, but I dont expect them to grab a Mosin and move into the woods. 

Since the frontline would have to travel/grind through, most that can will flea just out of own fear, all liberated villages are 100% destroyed with the odd old person somewhere still alive.

 

Edited August 24, 2023 by Kraft

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

You mean how the Russians underestimated the readiness of Ukrainian local to “resist with their own hands”?  

We already were liberating in 2014 Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Mariuopol, Kostiantynivka and many other towns and villages on Donbas, where locals were "on edge", brainwashed and intimidated after Maidan bu Russian propaganda and local semi-crimimnal lords. Many of them, of course even not 50 %, but anyway really many tied own expectations with Russia. They had hopes Russia will come and their level of life and salaries will grow up to Moscow level. Ukriane liberated these cities and what? They in mass became organize partisan squads? No. All what they could do it scold Ukriane on own kitchens or as ecxeption to spy for LDPR. Alas, Ukraine authorities didn't make filtrations in that time and almost all who organize "referendums", almost all local elites, who supported separatists, but didn't flee - almost all remained at power.

So now we can see paradoxal situation - on occupied terririories, which already 9 years could "enjoy" with Russian order, the level of frustration and dissatisfaction with Russia and own puppet rulers is much more than on Donbas territories liberated in 2014, where people hadn't much time to feel all pearls of Russian World. Because of this so many locals, who to this time expect "when our boys will liberate us from banderites", but they in 99 % never will take arms in own hands. This is just difefrence in mentality. Their capability to self-organization, for establishing of decentralized network is too low, in comparison with centaral and western Ukraine. They alway will expect directives of own chiefs. They need "big boss", but anyway even if he will come, most of them will not aste to enlist.

As far as during ATO Russian milblogegrs wrote local men support Russia only by words, but didn't want to enlist in LDPR troops, so units have significant problems with staffing. It's need a big war, that put Donbas men into army by "iron hand power". So, I don't belive in fierce resistance of locals on Donbas. Maybe something can be in part of Crimea, espacially around Sevastopol, where popu;ation is extreme even not so pro-Russian, but pro-Soviet. Citizens of Sevastopol for example hate new settlers, coming to their city from "continental Russia"  

Edited August 24, 2023 by Haiduk

[billbindc]

Galeotti with the right take: 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/prigozhins-death-has-exposed-putins-weakness/

[Carolus]

Also, regarding potential Russia supporters in Eastern Ukraine, we should not forget that Russians consider brutality, revenge and barbarism to be normal. They will think Ukrainian Forces might want to treat them like Russian Forces treat Ukrainians, that they will end up tortured, dismembered and hung upside down from the next tree.

It won't happen, but they won't take that risk. The majority of those who really feel loyal to Russia, how many it may be, will move away when the Russian Army has to move out of their village or town.

The rest will simply shrug and keep a low profile because they simply don't care. I think the level of initiative and activity the population in Donbask and Luhansk have shown over the last years is observably minimal. They do things when someone holds a gun against their head. Otherwise they will be happily apolitical and apathetic like 60% of Russians.

Edited August 24, 2023 by Carolus

[A Canadian Cat]

14 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK, two most plausible scenarios is the plane crashed because of shoddy maintenance due to sanctions or Putin decided it was time to get rid of him.  My money, and I think most people's money, is on the latter.  All other possibilities are really unlikely.

I think it is also possible that it could have been just some one in the military that was sore about the Wagner guys shooting down Russian pilots during the coup attempt. As many have said Putin is weaker why not have a few Generals decide its time to get rid of Prig and ordering some Air defence forces to take down his plane.