How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, BlackMoria said:

That is pretty blatant.  Putin has played the plausible deniability angle with people being poisoned or going out window.  But maybe that is entirely the point.  He wants everyone to know he ordered the dirty deed.

Actually, this is something Putin has done in the past.  Kill someone with a flimsy cover story, claim "hey it wasn't me", and yet everybody knows it was him.  The video released by the Skripal poisonings was a classic example of this.  The assassins said they were just there to admire the church steeples.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

heh... been a while since I checked back later in the day and found 2 new pages, so obviously I knew something interesting happened!

OK, two most plausible scenarios is the plane crashed because of shoddy maintenance due to sanctions or Putin decided it was time to get rid of him.  My money, and I think most people's money, is on the latter.  All other possibilities are really unlikely.

I agree with those who think this is going to cause problems within Russia.  Prig was always an imperfect representation of the nationalist movement, but that is often the case for populist types.  Look closely at their track record, their motivation, their rhetoric, etc. and you see that the people who idolize him are wrong to do so.  But he's the closest thing they have to latch onto and so they latch onto him, flaws and illogic included.

Prgi was the symbol for trying to win the war.  Wagner was the symbol of true Russian military strength.  Wagner is gone and so is Prig.  The nationalists are not going to be happy about this at all.  All the fantasy thoughts about Wagner coming back to save Russia are gone now. 

The important thing to focus on is that in the minds of the nationalists there is no longer a path to victory in Ukraine.  This will increase activities against Putin's rule.  How effective will they be now that they've lost Prig (dead), Girkin (arrested), and "smart" generals sidelined (arrested or worse)?  For now, I don't see them having any card to play.  However, they are the sort that will come out of nowhere to take advantage of something someone else does.  Therefore, I don't count them out but I don't see any immediate effective action available to them.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Oh, and I think people will view Putin as weaker than ever.  Dangerous as well?  Yes, that too.  But killing and arresting the voices of people trying to win a war that is clearly lost is definitely not broadcasting a message of confidence about where this war is headed.  When Hitler rounded up all the July coup plotters and had them murdered, did anybody who questioned the war think "Oh, I guess this war is all sorted now.  Nothing to worry about.".  Quite the contrary.  They might have feared being strung up by piano wire more than they had been, but they also likely concluded that Germany was doomed.

Steve

[dan/california]

35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

heh... been a while since I checked back later in the day and found 2 new pages, so obviously I knew something interesting happened!

OK, two most plausible scenarios is the plane crashed because of shoddy maintenance due to sanctions or Putin decided it was time to get rid of him.  My money, and I think most people's money, is on the latter.  All other possibilities are really unlikely.

I agree with those who think this is going to cause problems within Russia.  Prig was always an imperfect representation of the nationalist movement, but that is often the case for populist types.  Look closely at their track record, their motivation, their rhetoric, etc. and you see that the people who idolize him are wrong to do so.  But he's the closest thing they have to latch onto and so they latch onto him, flaws and illogic included.

Prgi was the symbol for trying to win the war.  Wagner was the symbol of true Russian military strength.  Wagner is gone and so is Prig.  The nationalists are not going to be happy about this at all.  All the fantasy thoughts about Wagner coming back to save Russia are gone now. 

The important thing to focus on is that in the minds of the nationalists there is no longer a path to victory in Ukraine.  This will increase activities against Putin's rule.  How effective will they be now that they've lost Prig (dead), Girkin (arrested), and "smart" generals sidelined (arrested or worse)?  For now, I don't see them having any card to play.  However, they are the sort that will come out of nowhere to take advantage of something someone else does.  Therefore, I don't count them out but I don't see any immediate effective action available to them.

Steve

A meaningful number of them just screaming the war is lost, come home, get drunk, surrender, save yourselves seems like it would have a non zero impact. There is also a small but non zero chance that someone in a position to simply shoot Putin takes it. War translated already has a selection of posts on his twitter feed with RU nats screaming some of the above.

Edited August 24, 2023 by dan/california

[Jr Buck Private]

34 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh, and I think people will view Putin as weaker than ever.  Dangerous as well?  Yes, that too.  But killing and arresting the voices of people trying to win a war that is clearly lost is definitely not broadcasting a message of confidence about where this war is headed.  When Hitler rounded up all the July coup plotters and had them murdered, did anybody who questioned the war think "Oh, I guess this war is all sorted now.  Nothing to worry about.".  Quite the contrary.  They might have feared being strung up by piano wire more than they had been, but they also likely concluded that Germany was doomed.

Steve

Does kinda have that Hitler killing Rommel feel to it.   Except German people were ignorant as to how Rommel died.  Not so much of a secret this time.   Can't do anything but hurt morale.

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

That opposition would have been in favor of mobilization. 

To clarify, They were in favor of it but opposing him and the old skool MoD approach.  

If he had mobilized the process could have been co-opted/corrupted by Prigozhin et al. 

Now,  there's no equivalent  armed,  organized and ideologically centered opposition. 

[Kinophile]

53 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh, and I think people will view Putin as weaker than ever.  Dangerous as well?  Yes, that too.  But killing and arresting the voices of people trying to win a war that is clearly lost is definitely not broadcasting a message of confidence about where this war is headed.  When Hitler rounded up all the July coup plotters and had them murdered, did anybody who questioned the war think "Oh, I guess this war is all sorted now.  Nothing to worry about.".  Quite the contrary.  They might have feared being strung up by piano wire more than they had been, but they also likely concluded that Germany was doomed.

Steve

Yup - and yet no more coup attempts. 

So,  perceptions of weakness or not,  the message was received. People stayed in line,and this was with utter national destruction very clearly approaching. The eradication of Germany as a cultural entity was a very real possibility and yet... No more coup attempts. 

What's to say this  won't happen today in Russia, with a very docile population and no imminent domestic threat within the borders?  No national destruction approaching? Easier to shrug,  work and obey. 

Perceptions are only effective if there is some mechanism to transform them into political realities. Wagner was such a means and I don't see an equivalent anywhere nearby -  for now,  of course. 

Edited August 24, 2023 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

The important thing to focus on is that in the minds of the nationalists there is no longer a path to victory in Ukraine.  This will increase activities against Putin's rule.  

Very possibly, but initially furtively and low key. A dramatic, strategic defeat in Ukraine but with the war still going on,  would help push things along. 

Or some public assassinations of key Mil-pol leaders. Nothing shakes confidence in an autocratic regime like its supposedly untouchable leaders (not The Leader) being slaughtered in public. 

If Wagner goes full political,  then oh man,  popcorn time. 

Edited August 24, 2023 by Kinophile

[NamEndedAllen]

4 hours ago, Anon052 said:

The symbolism is strong with this one. Exactly 2 month ago the wagner group started their rebellion/coup. So with russian fixation on dates I would assume along with videomaterial that cleary hints that this was ordered by the Putin/the Kremlin.

The reports state  that both Utkin and Prigoshin were in the plane and their bodies got identified  after the crash....

Yes, and even stronger than that. Because today Putin and Russia ALSO celebrated their 80th anniversary commemorating their victory at Kursk. Coincidence?

https://gazette.com/news/wex/putin-beams-at-war-memorial-gala-as-wagner-chief-prigozhin-dies-in-plane-crash/article_6f7d740a-cc6f-59fd-9f10-ca73f329138f.html

[Vet 0369]

5 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

Why the hell is Russia focusing on an Afrika Corps right now? Don’t they need soldiers? Is this a ruse to mobilize more men?

Even if best case (for Russia) the conflict is frozen and their economy can support the adventure, it’s not like there isn’t going to be epic Russian hunting and shenanigans by various foreign services in Africa.

It’s all about money! The African operations contributes Billions to the Russian government and Putin directly.

[Sojourner]

Wonder if this might be why Girkin was picked up.

"Igor, I have a little job for you. You'll like it. It's right up your alley".

If not, I imagine by now Girkin is probably wishing he had turned himself in to the Hague when he still had the chance.

[chuckdyke]

7 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

t’s all about money! The African operations contributes Billions to the Russian government and Putin directly.

Same reason Rommel was in Afrika in WW2 it was oil nowadays more raw materials than we can poke a stick at. Regimes where everybody is corrupt from the Bishop to the Ice-cream seller. Lovely area for the Russians to do business.

[kimbosbread]

I cant believe all 3 top Wagner guys would be on same plane. Especially after a coup attempt. These guys aren’t idiots.

Did they all get on the plane already dead? Is the manifest fake (and we tipped Wagner off)?

EDIT: A friend points out that 10 passengers is a lot for a junglet jet.

Edited August 24, 2023 by kimbosbread

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

I cant believe all 3 top Wagner guys would be on same plane. Especially after a coup attempt. These guys aren’t idiots.

Did they all get on the plane already dead? Is the manifest fake (and we tipped Wagner off)?

Any or all of this is at least possible. The first 13 rules of modern Russia, believe nothing, repeat that to yourself thirteen times.

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

I cant believe all 3 top Wagner guys would be on same plane. Especially after a coup attempt. These guys aren’t idiots.

Did they all get on the plane already dead? Is the manifest fake (and we tipped Wagner off)?

EDIT: A friend points out that 10 passengers is a lot for a junglet jet.

yeah really.  My company wouldn't let me and my partner travel on the same flights simply because we constituted the bulk of the VoIP team.  Not exactly the higher echelons of strategic impact and yet they still had it as policy.

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

I cant believe all 3 top Wagner guys would be on same plane. Especially after a coup attempt. These guys aren’t idiots.

Did they all get on the plane already dead? Is the manifest fake (and we tipped Wagner off)?

EDIT: A friend points out that 10 passengers is a lot for a junglet jet.

I suspect you're right.  It certainly explains why the entire top echelon of Wagner would be all in one place at one time, not to mention an easy target for assassins.

Maybe Putin lured Prig and a couple of the others to Moscow because of the move to usurp their African based ops.  They arrive, but oh-no... hit squad.  The ones there are killed, the others (who were under surveillance) are killed elsewhere.  All the bodies are brought to the airport and put onto the plane.  The Wagner pilot is given some line of BS about the cargo and told to fly to X place to drop it off.  Plane goes up, then comes down.  Likely a couple of bombs (one witness reported two booms) to make sure nothing went wrong.  Evidence all twisted and scattered enough that there won't be an accidental evidence trail.  You know, like the botched apartment bombing where the FSB bombers were caught by unsuspecting police.

Obviously all speculation, but the chances are this was no accident and therefore nefarious activities before the crash are likely.  Even if it was forcing them onto the plane alive with them knowing they were about to die.  Something other than the top ranks of Wagner all voluntarily cramming themselves into an obvious ambush vehicle.

Steve

 

[The_Capt]

6 hours ago, FancyCat said:

As Haiduk noted, if Russia loses Crimea and Donbas, that is basically Russian total defeat. Does not require invasion of the mainland Russian territories. I can't see a scenario where Russia has the combat potential to reinvade Ukraine but not defend Crimea or Donbas, or the domestic political currency to retreat from Crimea and Donbas and then attempt a new invasion of Ukraine. Whatever territory they lose, they won't regain it seems like. Meaning, if Russia loses Crimea and Donbas, worldwide sentiment will effectively abandon Russia as Russia has nothing to offer the world for its support in pursuing a 2nd invasion of Ukraine. 

Once Russia loses worldwide sentiment, Ukraine does not need to sign a peace treaty, Russia will need to in order to actually get some semi balance of economic recovery. 

Man that is convoluted logic.  So Ukraine taking back Crimea and Donbas is somehow directly linked to the entire Russian federations means, motive and opportunities to continue this war…and somehow also stay together as a functioning nation?  

That makes no sense.  Russia is a large power that could lob missiles and drones at Ukraine while sponsoring all sorts of terror and insurgent action for decades.  They don’t need “worldwide sentiment” anymore than North Korea does.  In fact given the ridiculous insecurity of the Russian mindset I suspect they will keep the war going just to avoid turning on each other, “A long struggle against NATO in Ukraine to keep us safe”.

If you honestly believe that retaking those 2014 borders is going to magically end this thing and peace will simply emerge, well I think you may be disappointed.  The only way to get Russia to stop and adopt peace is to either remove Russian Will to wage the war entirely, or increase the deterrence (eg NATO membership).  The trick with killing Will is that it cannot completely collapse the state itself.  

[The_Capt]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I suspect you're right.  It certainly explains why the entire top echelon of Wagner would be all in one place at one time, not to mention an easy target for assassins.

Maybe Putin lured Prig and a couple of the others to Moscow because of the move to usurp their African based ops.  They arrive, but oh-no... hit squad.  The ones there are killed, the others (who were under surveillance) are killed elsewhere.  All the bodies are brought to the airport and put onto the plane.  The Wagner pilot is given some line of BS about the cargo and told to fly to X place to drop it off.  Plane goes up, then comes down.  Likely a couple of bombs (one witness reported two booms) to make sure nothing went wrong.  Evidence all twisted and scattered enough that there won't be an accidental evidence trail.  You know, like the botched apartment bombing where the FSB bombers were caught by unsuspecting police.

Obviously all speculation, but the chances are this was no accident and therefore nefarious activities before the crash are likely.  Even if it was forcing them onto the plane alive with them knowing they were about to die.  Something other than the top ranks of Wagner all voluntarily cramming themselves into an obvious ambush vehicle.

Steve

 

This is why how the coup went down made zero sense.  How did Prog think this was going to end?  He chases Putin out of Moscow and nearly made it to the gates.  No way he gets to live after that.  Some weird Belarusian drug deal with a Putin puppet was never going to work and everyone knew it.

I am back to the love affair theory.  Putin helped Prig fake his death so they could get him out of the game.  Putin knows Prig is really at the lake house and they plan to retire together there…kinda sweet except for the part of killing 10 other people.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Very possibly, but initially furtively and low key. A dramatic, strategic defeat in Ukraine but with the war still going on,  would help push things along. 

Or some public assassinations of key Mil-pol leaders. Nothing shakes confidence in an autocratic regime like its supposedly untouchable leaders (not The Leader) being slaughtered in public. 

If Wagner goes full political,  then oh man,  popcorn time. 

This is the sort of thing I was thinking of.  As I said, the nationalists are now without anybody to pin their hopes on, which means they are (for now) done as a major influence on Russian internal politics.  Aiding some other group?  Sure, but on their own I don't see them organized enough to do anything but nibble around the edges.  Going after anybody big, like Putin, would be difficult but not impossible.  The war might have to go on a little more for that to become viable.

Your previous point about "no more coups" for Germany 1944-1945 is correct, however there is one massive difference between the Third Reich and Putin's Russia... there's no looming external force marching towards Moscow to end Putin like what ended Hitler.  The Third Reich was gone before a year elapsed after the July bomb plot.  That's not really enough time to put together another large scale coup.  Putin is planning on being around a lot longer than a year, which means another coup attempt is probable if something doesn't come around and end the regime sooner.

Steve

[paxromana]

56 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Same reason Rommel was in Afrika in WW2 it was oil nowadays more raw materials than we can poke a stick at. Regimes where everybody is corrupt from the Bishop to the Ice-cream seller. Lovely area for the Russians to do business.

There was no oil in North Africa in WW2.

The tech to drill the Libyan oilwells didn't exist at the time and I am not even sure the existence of oil in Libya was suspected.

Edited August 24, 2023 by paxromana

[chuckdyke]

9 minutes ago, paxromana said:

There was no oil in North Africa in WW2.

The tech rto drill the Libyan oilwells didn't exist at the time and I am not even sure the existence of oil in Libya was suspected.

The objective was the Suez Canal. Behind Egypt you get? Behind Stalingrad is the Caucasus and also oil.

Edited August 24, 2023 by chuckdyke

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

This is why how the coup went down made zero sense.

I agree.  We're a pretty bright bunch here and I still don't think we've figured out what happened with the coup attempt.  I've read nothing from anybody else that makes sense either.  Parts of various theories make sense, but there's so much wrong with any of the overall narratives. 

My last attempt at figuring this out was simply that there's a LOT more that happened then we know of and whatever it was will explain what we did see.

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I am back to the love affair theory.  Putin helped Prig fake his death so they could get him out of the game.  Putin knows Prig is really at the lake house and they plan to retire together there…kinda sweet except for the part of killing 10 other people.

Thanks for setting back weeks of therapy to get rid of your previous lover's spat theories.  I'll send you the bill for my next session.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Man that is convoluted logic.  So Ukraine taking back Crimea and Donbas is somehow directly linked to the entire Russian federations means, motive and opportunities to continue this war…and somehow also stay together as a functioning nation?  

That makes no sense.  Russia is a large power that could lob missiles and drones at Ukraine while sponsoring all sorts of terror and insurgent action for decades.  They don’t need “worldwide sentiment” anymore than North Korea does.  In fact given the ridiculous insecurity of the Russian mindset I suspect they will keep the war going just to avoid turning on each other, “A long struggle against NATO in Ukraine to keep us safe”.

If you honestly believe that retaking those 2014 borders is going to magically end this thing and peace will simply emerge, well I think you may be disappointed.  The only way to get Russia to stop and adopt peace is to either remove Russian Will to wage the war entirely, or increase the deterrence (eg NATO membership).  The trick with killing Will is that it cannot completely collapse the state itself.  

I agree with how you put it a couple of pages ago... there is NO CHANCE that Russia will surrender in the way it needs to.  None. Zip.  Nada.

The only two scenarios where Ukraine gets at least some sense of victory from Russia is if Putin's regime is removed (and probably what comes after it) and a new government decides to be pragmatic.  Offer up some heads for the guillotine, some reparations, some pieces of paper with meaningless signatures on it, etc.  But Russia still remains Russia, which means it remains a threat to everybody in it and around it.

The other option is that the Russian Federation ceases to exist through internal disintegration.  The remains are so weak that it has no choice but to be a better world citizen.  Er, probably in 2-3 generations.  Even then, maybe not.  Could be a North Korea or Iran scenario.

Steve

[billbindc]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I agree.  We're a pretty bright bunch here and I still don't think we've figured out what happened with the coup attempt.  I've read nothing from anybody else that makes sense either.  Parts of various theories make sense, but there's so much wrong with any of the overall narratives. 

My last attempt at figuring this out was simply that there's a LOT more that happened then we know of and whatever it was will explain what we did see.

Thanks for setting back weeks of therapy to get rid of your previous lover's spat theories.  I'll send you the bill for my next session.

Steve

The theory that still fits the facts we know best is that Prigozhin imagined he had enough backing to secure his degrading position and take over the war effort from Shoigu and Gerasimov. It's easy to look back now and think that was a bad bet but...the large majority of the security services did actually either join in or refused to resist the effort. Prigozhin's problem was that the percentage of the former was a lot lower than the latter. Then, like the proverbial dog that caught the car, he didn't know what to do when he had it in his teeth. It's entirely believable to imagine that if he held on a bit more or been less volatile a character he could have won at least in the short term. 

My analysis would be that Prigozhin on his own was incapable of neutralizing the state to that extent and knew that he was dependent on partners in the regime. He had backers in the FSB, GRU, Rosneft and the core governorships who, when it was clear that Moscow there for the taking, held him back because while it's one thing to put a gun to Putin's head it is quite something else to risk a full bore revolution. Without that backing, Prigozhin knew he couldn't go forward and they froze things and used him as a tool to renegotiate the system with Putin. They did, the coup 'failed' and Wagner was sidelined. And as soon as Prigozhin was no longer suit to purpose Putin's vengeance was allowed to go forward. 

Finis. 

[Kinophile]

43 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is the sort of thing I was thinking of.  As I said, the nationalists are now without anybody to pin their hopes on, which means they are (for now) done as a major influence on Russian internal politics.  Aiding some other group?  Sure, but on their own I don't see them organized enough to do anything but nibble around the edges.  Going after anybody big, like Putin, would be difficult but not impossible.  The war might have to go on a little more for that to become viable.

Your previous point about "no more coups" for Germany 1944-1945 is correct, however there is one massive difference between the Third Reich and Putin's Russia... there's no looming external force marching towards Moscow to end Putin like what ended Hitler.  The Third Reich was gone before a year elapsed after the July bomb plot.  That's not really enough time to put together another large scale coup.  Putin is planning on being around a lot longer than a year, which means another coup attempt is probable if something doesn't come around and end the regime sooner.

Steve

I guess the shortest way to sum up what I'm saying is that Putin Is Safe -  For Now. 

How long is "now" and what Putler will do with this window of opportunity are the next two unknowables. The third one is what will it be that closes that window...