How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

It seems some inventive muscovite installed RPG on the drone and fired it at some vehicle:

We are living in times of new Renaissance...

https://futurenow.com.ua/en/famous-inventions-of-leonardo-da-vinci-helicopter-tank/

[Battlefront.com]

57 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

It seems some inventive muscovite installed RPG on the drone and fired it at some vehicle:

We are living in times of new Renaissance...

https://futurenow.com.ua/en/famous-inventions-of-leonardo-da-vinci-helicopter-tank/

Yup, impressive.  Even smarter is the ability to drop the empty tube, which increases range and speed.

I remember seeing Ukraine experiment with such things at the beginning of the war.  Including sticking an AK (IIRC) onto a drone.  With the heavier commercial drones out there, pretty much anything is possible.

Steve

[Twisk]

10 hours ago, Fenris said:

Some more interesting than usual comments on ISW in relation to fractures within Wagner and rear area strikes degrading RU morale and capabilities.  Worth perusing until the end where there's claimed to be a shortage of tires and parts for the RU trucks and details of various things supplied secretly by China.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-20-2023

 

Quote

 Russian forces are reportedly suffering from shortages of tires for Ural and Kamaz trucks.[81] A Russian milblogger claimed that the Russian Armed Forces are facing similar tire shortages that have previously been observed in Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR) People’s militias. The milblogger noted that a lack of new tires may slow down supplies of ammunition to the frontlines and will stop the movement of trucks during muddy weather in the fall. The milblogger added that Russian forces face an acute shortages of auto parts for these trucks.

The ISW bit about trucks is fairly short but this aligns with what I was talking about in regards to taking Tokmak. The drive from Melitopol to Mariupol (the two nearest rail depots if Tokmak is gone) is nearly 200km. And theoretically it should be under observation and fire from Ukraine (although given the distance perhaps infrequently). This would put  greater strain on Russia's ability to link its two sides of the land bridge.
 

Given the distances involved I would assume that actually hitting individual trucks (convoys?) would be relatively rare. I've not seen much evidence of Ukraine hitting trains. However, it would mean that there would be about 100-150km where Russian forces really couldn't have a marshaling point for supplies and would need to run end to end without stop.

 

 

 

Edit:

I put this together real quick showing the additional range https://imgur.com/a/zXIHsVl

I measured 80km from a bit back so its roughly 65km from the line of contact. But you can see how it can degrade Russia's ability to move and keep supplies through a significant portion of the land bridge that is currently "safe". Obviously not as good as physically interdicting it but it would effectively require Russia to keep any larger stores of supplies on one side or the other of the bridge.

Edited August 21, 2023 by Twisk

[Haiduk]

Next UKR drone attack on Russian airfield of strategic bombers. Russin TG claims Shaikovka airfield in Kaluga oblast was attacked by the drone and allegedly one "unused" plane was damaged.  Shaikovka is a base of 52nd heavy bomber regiment, armed with Tu-22M3 planes. Resently governor of Kaluga oblast told an UAV attack was repelled.

Later UKR GUR confirmed attack and damaging of one aircraft. "There were people, who in coordinatin with GUR came from central Russia, have worked out and returned back. Like and in other сases GUR continues to execute tasks, i.e. on the territory of agressor state" - commented GUR representateive Andriy Yusov

 

[Elmar Bijlsma]

3 hours ago, akd said:

Explosion is first, with fragments hitting the tank and around the tank, followed by more dust / smoke kicking up on and around the tank.  Actual point of detonation is forward and left of the tank by a bit.

Yeah, that shot looks like it went to the left of the leading tank. Somewhat inconsiderate if the lead driver had the time to dismount his stricken tank.

The real question is: Where did the previous shot (0:42) from the same offender go? I see no impact in the back of the lead tank, but I struggle to think where else it could have gone. Perhaps over? Regardless, the gunner in that rear tank is a liability.

[akd]

1 hour ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Yeah, that shot looks like it went to the left of the leading tank. Somewhat inconsiderate if the lead driver had the time to dismount his stricken tank.

The real question is: Where did the previous shot (0:42) from the same offender go? I see no impact in the back of the lead tank, but I struggle to think where else it could have gone. Perhaps over? Regardless, the gunner in that rear tank is a liability.

The earlier vid of this incident shows some rounds fired blind from within the dust / smoke striking further down the tree line.

[danfrodo]

3 hours ago, Twisk said:

I put this together real quick showing the additional range https://imgur.com/a/zXIHsVl

Nice graphic, thanks for doing that.  Now they just gotta get to tokmak.  My sense of scale gets really confused in the landbridge sometimes, but it looks like Robotyne to Tokmak is only ~15mi / 25km (which is over ~2x the distance they've gotten so far, I think).  And don't need to take tokmak, just cut it from the eastern side should be good enough.  Need some RU units to crack, and soon.

Edited August 21, 2023 by danfrodo

[Twisk]

Yea, I think its easy to view the land bridge as a particularly large piece of land but it doesn't take that much to start to cut it by fire. Which I think speaks to the reason for the Russians defending forward so much. Currently they can still traverse the area by rail and can house supply in a fairly concentrated manner throughout the length of the land bridge. But its only a matter of 25-30km for that to no longer be true.

Once Ukraine achieves that the bridge comes under fire of the relatively more numerous HIMARS (compared to Storm Shadow or other options). The marshaling yards at Melitopol come under fire. Even more weight will be placed on Russia's truck fleet. And Ukraine opens up its strategic options.

 

I might be getting too "lines on a map" but compare the option Ukraine had to what it could have if it took Tokmak and solidified lines along natural boundaries. This presumes a certain amount of Russian abandonment of nearby areas as Ukraine gets closer to Tokmak. But Ukraine goes from essentially having a set of "into the teeth" options to being able to put Russia into a defensive dilemma.

[Fenris]

Example of caustic relations back home - something else to sap morale.

Quote

WarGonzo's Pegov thought an interview with mobiks would be a great idea, but they revealed how back home, they're not so popular, even called murderers.

 

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Example of caustic relations back home - something else to sap morale.

 

Interesting.  We've not seen much posted lately here about the day to day Russian public reactions towards the war.  So much of that got clamped down upon last year by law enforcement.  Interesting to see this now.  Definitely news to me.

Steve

[JonS]

On 8/22/2023 at 4:52 AM, Astrophel said:

The morale issue is key, and a continuing puzzle.  Were the russians a western army they would have collapsed last year.  They are badly led, badly equipped, and fighting for an immoral and unethical cause.  It cannot even be argued that they are fighting to defend the motherland since the motherland has not been attacked in the slightest until recent weeks.  They are now outgunned.  They are not welcomed in the occupied territories as liberators, rather despised.  They are often asked to endorse or perform atrocities that must turn the stomach of any human.

What keeps them going?  Day after day they continue to attack and take many casualties.  The medical care is minimal, it seems.  And for what?  They lose ground slowly but surely and every day that passes the corrupt nature of their cause becomes more evident.  Surely one of these days they will turn on their superiors, or surrender.

The power of culture and group think has never been more revoltingly on display.  This war needs to be won on a psychological level.  Morale is key.  The russians need to change their minds about this war. 

 

Simply swap "Russian" for "German" (in 1944/45) and this entire thing remains true. They didn't fold then.

Edited August 22, 2023 by JonS

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, JonS said:

Simply swap "Russian" for "German" (in 1944/45) and this entire thing remains true. They don't fold then.

I never bought this parallel analogy.  Germany knew that the USSR was going to go all the way to Berlin, so they were fighting for their nation in an existential conflict.  Russia was in the same place in 41-43.  Russia today is not, at least not in a "Hey NATO/Ukraine is going to destroy us."  Russian political noise keeps trying to sell this but I honestly doubt the average Russian buys it.  For Russia this is a discretionary war.  It is not for Putin or his cronies but for Russia as a nation this war is entirely voluntary.  So the question of "what the hell keeps them going?" is a valid one.  This is one hell of an expensive "non-existential" war.

[paxromana]

8 hours ago, Astrophel said:

The morale issue is key, and a continuing puzzle.  Were the russians a western army they would have collapsed last year.  They are badly led, badly equipped, and fighting for an immoral and unethical cause.  It cannot even be argued that they are fighting to defend the motherland since the motherland has not been attacked in the slightest until recent weeks.  They are now outgunned.  They are not welcomed in the occupied territories as liberators, rather despised.  They are often asked to endorse or perform atrocities that must turn the stomach of any human.

What keeps them going?  Day after day they continue to attack and take many casualties.  The medical care is minimal, it seems.  And for what?  They lose ground slowly but surely and every day that passes the corrupt nature of their cause becomes more evident.  Surely one of these days they will turn on their superiors, or surrender.

The power of culture and group think has never been more revoltingly on display.  This war needs to be won on a psychological level.  Morale is key.  The russians need to change their minds about this war. 

 

Russians 2022-23 = German Army 1939-45.

And that was a Western Army.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

I never bought this parallel analogy.  Germany knew that the USSR was going to go all the way to Berlin, so they were fighting for their nation in an existential conflict.  Russia was in the same place in 41-43.  Russia today is not, at least not in a "Hey NATO/Ukraine is going to destroy us."  Russian political noise keeps trying to sell this but I honestly doubt the average Russian buys it.  For Russia this is a discretionary war.  It is not for Putin or his cronies but for Russia as a nation this war is entirely voluntary.  So the question of "what the hell keeps them going?" is a valid one.  This is one hell of an expensive "non-existential" war.

I have a suspicion that one of the secondary reasons Russia tries to use units to near annihilation instead of rotating them out is fear of mobiks that have done front line service taking about what a delightful experience it is to provide a target for Ukrainian artillery and drones. That is after they tell people they were systematically lied to about where they were going, what they were going to do there, and paid only a fraction of what they were promised. Once tens or hundreds of thousands of men are back home, even on leave, the Russian propaganda machine is going to have a harder time controlling the narrative.

Edited August 22, 2023 by dan/california

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

I never bought this parallel analogy.  Germany knew that the USSR was going to go all the way to Berlin, so they were fighting for their nation in an existential conflict.  Russia was in the same place in 41-43.  Russia today is not, at least not in a "Hey NATO/Ukraine is going to destroy us."  Russian political noise keeps trying to sell this but I honestly doubt the average Russian buys it.  For Russia this is a discretionary war.  It is not for Putin or his cronies but for Russia as a nation this war is entirely voluntary.  So the question of "what the hell keeps them going?" is a valid one.  This is one hell of an expensive "non-existential" war.

Certainly a discretionary war but one that the average Russian isn't hurt by in an extremely direct way while it scratches a long standing ressentiment itch. The Russian national project is motivated by that feeling and Russians themselves sense that this is something of a last hurrah. Their economy is essentially resource extraction, their population is sliding inexorably down and their sense of themselves as a great power is slipping away. Folks raised on the folk ideology of the USSR will let other people's kids die for a long time if they think they have a chance of reversing those trends. So...not existential in terms of material national survival but more than a little bit existential in cultural terms. Why else would Solovyov and his ilk yatter on about using nukes or extending "Western Russia" to the docks of Nice? The fantasy has enormous political power in Russia. That is why Putin is doing it in the first place.

[Kinophile]

Tatarigami

 

[Jorge MC]

 

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Tatarigami

 

I wonder how many men?  UKR taking ~1:2 vehicle losses but I bet a lot less personnel losses.  75 tanks & 101 AFVs that won't be around later.  Meanwhile, UKR has good supply of replacements coming.

 

4 hours ago, Twisk said:

Yea, I think its easy to view the land bridge as a particularly large piece of land but it doesn't take that much to start to cut it by fire. Which I think speaks to the reason for the Russians defending forward so much. Currently they can still traverse the area by rail and can house supply in a fairly concentrated manner throughout the length of the land bridge. But its only a matter of 25-30km for that to no longer be true.

Great point, Twisk.  30km of advance would really make it hard for RU logistics.  Hopefully UKR can get that before RU manages to mobilize the next batch of cannon fodder.  

I keep wondering if UKR is going to suddenly punch out toward Vasiliyska (or elsewhere), assuming RU is thinning out resources to stop UKR at Robotyne & Staromilsk(sp?) to the east.  

Edited August 22, 2023 by danfrodo

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I never bought this parallel analogy.  Germany knew that the USSR was going to go all the way to Berlin, so they were fighting for their nation in an existential conflict.  Russia was in the same place in 41-43.  Russia today is not, at least not in a "Hey NATO/Ukraine is going to destroy us."  Russian political noise keeps trying to sell this but I honestly doubt the average Russian buys it.  For Russia this is a discretionary war.  It is not for Putin or his cronies but for Russia as a nation this war is entirely voluntary.  So the question of "what the hell keeps them going?" is a valid one.  This is one hell of an expensive "non-existential" war.

There is also another important aspect of the WW2 Germany precedent to consider.

As you say, the average German soldier (certainly the officers) knew the war was lost by early 1945 at the very latest.  They fought on NOT because they wanted to maintain the Greater Reich, but to simply not be occupied by the Soviets.  In fact, the plan of the June Bomb Plot was to kill Hitler and offer to make peace with the West by fully withdrawing so they could continue to fight against the Soviets.  After the plot failed they stuck with Hitler mostly because they felt it was better to try for a better outcome by continuing the war.  Even the Battle of the Bulge was waged to buy time to deal with the Soviets, not to reconquer France.

We see further evidence of this as the war wound down.  German forces unilaterally surrendered in Italy before Berlin fell and more than a week before the final surrender.  The forces fighting in western Germany largely surrendered two weeks before the war ended (Ruhr Pocket) instead of fighting to the end.  The forces in Norway and Denmark didn't put up a fight.  The last cohesive combat was in the east and most of that was in an attempt to surrender to the Western Allies.

What I take away from this is that Germany would likely have surrendered much, much sooner if it weren't for the threat of Soviet occupation.  That threat was VERY real and the concern about it completely valid.  So much so that the main reasons to kill Hitler were explicitly to keep the Soviets from occupying Germany, not to "win the war".  That is why the Germans fought so long after it was clear the war was lost.

Bringing this back around to Russia now... there is no existential threat from Ukraine or NATO per se, but there losing the war introduces the real possibility of Russia breaking up and/or becoming irrelevant.  These are things that most Russians don't want to accept and therefore are at least reluctantly letting the war play out in hopes of a better outcome.  They are, in that sense, similar to 1945 Germans and equally in denial about their chances of obtaining a different outcome.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, Jorge MC said:

 

I've been patient with you due to your contributions to Combat Mission over many years.  However, you made a decision that it was important for you to show your support for genocide and fascism.  I feel it is equally important to show you there are consequences for that.  Therefore, I am banning you like I would any neo-nazi who flaunts his beliefs, complete with symbology for his avatar.  You can support Russia all you like somewhere else, just like neo-nazis do their twisted view of the world. 

Steve

[Kinophile]

Ninja'd by Steve. 

[chuckdyke]

I think the Port of Antwerp was the objective of the Battle of the Bulge. The offensive was ordered by Hitler himself and at times the partnership between the British and the US let a lot to be desired. It lives on in Hollywood by mentioning where the British erred and the US helped them out. If Antwerp had been captured the last chance of a deep-water port would have gone. Yes, Von Rundstedt advised with the words make peace you fools. Hitler was the only chance to make a separate peace the demand of unconditional surrender was on the table as long as he was alive. Without him not that clear. 

[Battlefront.com]

Good article in Politico about Ukraine's struggle to build up sufficient domestic arms manufacturing.  It dives into the history of how it got to this point using a drone manufacturer as the focus.  The attention grabbing headline is based on apparent concerns within Ukraine that if a Republican becomes US President they will have to be more self reliant.  This is obviously not an unfounded fear as most of the Republican presidential candidates have advocated cutting support for Ukraine.

https://www.politico.eu/article/return-trump-lack-foreign-support-looming-ukraine-war-ramp-up-homegrown-weapon-industry/

Steve

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

There is also another important aspect of the WW2 Germany precedent to consider.

As you say, the average German soldier (certainly the officers) knew the war was lost by early 1945 at the very latest.  They fought on NOT because they wanted to maintain the Greater Reich, but to simply not be occupied by the Soviets.  In fact, the plan of the June Bomb Plot was to kill Hitler and offer to make peace with the West by fully withdrawing so they could continue to fight against the Soviets.  After the plot failed they stuck with Hitler mostly because they felt it was better to try for a better outcome by continuing the war.  Even the Battle of the Bulge was waged to buy time to deal with the Soviets, not to reconquer France.

We see further evidence of this as the war wound down.  German forces unilaterally surrendered in Italy before Berlin fell and more than a week before the final surrender.  The forces fighting in western Germany largely surrendered two weeks before the war ended (Ruhr Pocket) instead of fighting to the end.  The forces in Norway and Denmark didn't put up a fight.  The last cohesive combat was in the east and most of that was in an attempt to surrender to the Western Allies.

What I take away from this is that Germany would likely have surrendered much, much sooner if it weren't for the threat of Soviet occupation.  That threat was VERY real and the concern about it completely valid.  So much so that the main reasons to kill Hitler were explicitly to keep the Soviets from occupying Germany, not to "win the war".  That is why the Germans fought so long after it was clear the war was lost.

Bringing this back around to Russia now... there is no existential threat from Ukraine or NATO per se, but there losing the war introduces the real possibility of Russia breaking up and/or becoming irrelevant.  These are things that most Russians don't want to accept and therefore are at least reluctantly letting the war play out in hopes of a better outcome.  They are, in that sense, similar to 1945 Germans and equally in denial about their chances of obtaining a different outcome.

Steve

If the plot to kill Hitler had succeeded the correct move for the German high command was to move every single unit that could move to try and hold a line somewhere around the Oder. Regardless of the status of the any negotiations, just literally wave U.S./British units on thru to Berlin and beyond, While trying to hold the Russians as far east as humanly possible even when they had spent their last round, and were down to bayonets. There is at least a possibility that by the time the western Allies got to Berlin, the relations with the Soviets would have been so bad they wouldn't give it back. I realize there are a zillion what ifs here. But if every German soldier the In France and Western Germany was either running as fast as they could, or holding a white flag in one hand, and a sign pointing to Berlin in the other what was Eisenhower going to do other than proceed to Berlin as fast as his forces trucks could carry them? There is a great book in there somewhere. Maybe even a CM game, although BFC have done a great job with the late war Eastern Front already.

It would be easiest point of departure you could ever ask for in alternate history novel. Stauffenburg just puts the bomb on the other side of the table leg.

[chuckdyke]

The Casablanca Conference demanded unconditional surrender of Germany. The conference was held in 1943. It was designed to keep the war going on the Eastern Front to prevent a peace treaty between Stalin and Hitler. Not surprised that Stalin pushed for a second front because both sides were equally suspicious.