How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

This hasn't been shown here yet... looks like the Swedes are in discussions with Ukraine to have CV-90 produced in Ukraine.  It's a long term effort, for sure, but this is the sort of thing Ukraine needs to be doing more of.  Unless Russia completely falls apart, Ukraine will need to be ready to fight Russia forever.

And more good news from within Russia... at least SOME Russians (well, legally... I doubt many in Moscow view them as such!) in Dagestan turned out to protest the absolutely crap conditions in which they live.  While Russia plows most of its economic capacity into Ukraine, everything else suffers.  The more suffering the better as it puts pressure on Moscow to do something, and that something will likely be stupid and counter productive.  One thing we seem to be able to count on is Putin taking a bad situation and making it worse.  The man has a gift!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/08/19/protestors-block-streets-south-russia/

Steve

[danfrodo]

50 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

While Russia plows most of its economic capacity into Ukraine, everything else suffers.

Yes, this is a terrible tragedy.  All this money should've been flowing into the bank accounts of needy oligarchs and corrupt politicians, and is instead being lost in this war.  Ohhhhhh, you mean the money should've helped regular people?  Ha ha ha that's a good one, Comrade!

[dan/california]

43 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Yes, this is a terrible tragedy.  All this money should've been flowing into the bank accounts of needy oligarchs and corrupt politicians, and is instead being lost in this war.  Ohhhhhh, you mean the money should've helped regular people?  Ha ha ha that's a good one, Comrade!

Bleep me, that is both savage and and completely true.

[Vet 0369]

7 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

The Drive has a nice article on why F-16s should be viewed as a long-term investment rather than a short term solution.

_____

“They're young pilots that barely have any hours at all. So they're not currently fighting the war,” he said.

The Ukrainian pilots are currently undergoing language training in the U.K.

“And then they're going to get a little bit more training on propellers, and then go down to France and fly in the [Dornier Alpha Jets] for a little bit, that all is going to take time,” said Hecker. “And that's probably not going to happen before the end of the year. So that takes a while to make that happen. So that's why it's going to be at least until next year until you see F-16s in Ukraine.”

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukrainian-f-16-combat-proficiency-at-scale-not-likely-before-2027-air-force-general-says

Also, a thoughtful thread from Justin Bonk regarding western contractors.

 

Gee, I wonder if USAF Pilots could resign their commissions and volunteer for the UKR Air Force, sort of like the Navy, Marine, and Arny Air Corps pilots did to form the “Original” Flying Tigers in China before the U.S. entered WWII?

[Vet 0369]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

If they are combat proven in Ukraine as a good enough solution, with a lower maintenance and training load, I would think Sweden could sell a TON of them. I realize F-35s have a lot more capability, and drones are coming like an avalanche, but there is still a lot to be said a for a manned fighter with NATO standard coms/hardpoints/radar and the ability to land on any decent road.

Whelp, I believe the Gripen IS designed specifically for low-level ground anttack and ANTI-SHIP missions, although I believe it’s a pretty competent fighter also. I have an AJS-37 Viggen in DCS, and it has some pretty amazing capabilities for an upgraded 1970s to 1990s aircraft.

[Battlefront.com]

Something appears to have slammed into Kursk a few hours ago.  After Haiduk gets his beauty rest I am sure he will tell us more about it   Here's a link to the Girkin account (which won't display here):

 https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1693060934015610975

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

This one goes out to Splinty... Bradleys on the advance:

Looks to be good spacing and communications between the Brad commanders appears to be excellent.  The two at the start go back and forth as if they are controlled by a Human Player in CMBS   This is really good to see because I've noticed a lot of clumsy coordination, if even that, between vehicles. Going fast according to plan works out OK, but if anything off plan happens things often appear to get messy fast.  This seems to me an example of training and combat experience paying off.

Splinty, what is your take on it?

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Since we constantly discuss Ukraine's slow territorial progress in the south, I think it is fair to mention that Russia's progress in the north is abysmal by comparison.  They don't seem to be doing much of anything other than the occasional minor gain of territory here and there, and then losing a bit somewhere else.  Russian bloggers constantly tout defeating Ukrainian counter attacks, but don't seem to have much to say about their own side's offensive activities.  According to Ukrainian sources, that's because they are routinely defeated.

Mind you, it seems these attacks are fairly small scale for both side.  There also doesn't seem to be the same degree of counter battery activity against Russian guns as there is in the south.

The reason this is important is that Russia squandered significant forces to continue the offensive in Luhansk, either to distract Ukraine or to secure its objective of seizing all Luhansk Oblast territory (or both).  Despite the investment, it doesn't appear to have paid off at all.  Ukraine has pretty solidly held its ground with mostly existing forces, which means it is Russia that is distracted and not Ukraine.

ISW reports Ukraine made small gains directly west of Donetsk City, which is always nice to see no matter how small the gains may be.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russias-artillery-war-ukraine-challenges-and-innovations

 

Russia’s Artillery War in Ukraine: Challenges and Innovations

 

Look, we can argue about actual information!

 

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

Look, we can argue about actual information!

 

Very good article.  Many notes made.  I saw nothing in that report that contradicts what we've discussed here, though I did find it a little strange they didn't mention the early war period where artillery was obviously used en mas against empty fields.  Not a failing of the artillery system, but more of other systems?  I suspect so, however it would have been good to get their opinion of why so much Ukrainian dirt and grass were targeted.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

It's been a while since anybody has noted an oddball "huh, didn't expect that" consequence for Russia due to this war.  I will end the drought by posting this Tweet about the Russian Luna-25 mission to the Moon:

This is about Russia's first unmanned mission to the Moon in something like 50 years.  The short of it is that like so many Russian things we've talked about here, something went very wrong What exactly isn't really know because, also typical of Russia, the information out there is vague at best. 

The point of the above Tweet thread is that Russia supposedly is troubleshooting with the probe to determine what went wrong.  However, because Russia has been cut off from much of the world (especially those with space communication capabilities), nobody wants to help them with communications, which means Russia has to rely upon its own systems which in turn means they can only talk to the probe for very brief periods of time when it is overhead of Russia.

Not that it probably matters.  One Russian blogger jokes that if there was a fixable problem they probably wouldn't have mentioned anything was wrong.  Since they did say something went wrong, that probably means it's lost.  Seems about right to me!

Steve

[Haiduk]

Yesterday FIRMS data. Robotyne is relatively calm and many fire in next Novoprokopivka village and some in Verbove. Probably one more indirect evidence UKR troops seized this village (or at least most part of it) and main efforts now shifted to south.

Edited August 20, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

UKR kamikadze drone allegedly approached to Moscow this night and two airports again were closed.

In Moscow now everywhere are mounting EW assets likely for GPS jamming 

Railroad station in Kursk was struck by UKR drone this night. Reportedly five people got light wounds with fragments of broken windows

Several UKR UAVs attacked Rostov oblast. Local authorities reported all drones were
"successfully supressed by EW, but two of them fell down on territory of military unit in Kamensk-Shakhtinskiy city. Probably he told about 11th engineer-sapper brigade of Southern military district, dislocating in this city

Edited August 20, 2023 by Haiduk

[poesel]

14 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Time to go to IKEA to pick up some Swedish meatballs, and re-watch some Dolph Lundgren movies.

I'm a great fan of IKEA and Swedish meatballs (köttbullar), but I can not recommend köttbullar from IKEA. Totally bland and without taste. No match for those you get in Sweden.

11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The gist is that Ukraine pause the war, not freeze it.  It then pursues rebuilding its country and becoming a part of NATO.  Since the territory under Ukraine's control is not "disputed", then membership should be allowed.  Similar to West Germany becoming a NATO member despite half the country being part of the DDR or dissolved.  A Russian attack into Ukrainian government controlled land would be Article 4 and 5 material.

I'm nitpicking here. When Germany entered NATO, East- and West-Germany were already two distinct states. So that is not a good comparison.
After the reunification, the eastern part of Germany only became NATO territory after the Russians left. That maybe a model.

But I doubt that will ever happen because of economic reasons. Pausing the war and 'building it up' may work for the military, but not for the civilian infrastructure. That is expensive to repair and easy to destroy. After unpausing, Ukraine would have to build that AGAIN.

[Haiduk]

Just a notice

Russia as far as in November 2019 withdrew from Fourth Geneva Convention (relative to the protection of civilian persons in time of war)

And new post of drunken Medvedev

We must not stop until the current Ukrainian state, which is essentially terroristic, has been dismantled. It must be destroyed utterly. Or rather so, that there is no ashes left from it. In order this filth can never, under any circumstances be rebrorn. If it takes years and even decades - so be it

And here how it started. 2010 year. Two years passed after invasion in Georgia. "Reboot". 

Year before McDonalds meeting, Ukraine under pressure of US administration signed agreement about utilization of own Elbrus SBRM (Scud) missiles. There were modernisation projects of this missiles, but since they were destroyed, Ukraine left only with short-range Tochka/Tochka-U ballistic missiles

 

Edited August 20, 2023 by Haiduk

[Bulletpoint]

Russia's Luna-25 spacecraft crashes into Moon

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66562629

"The apparatus moved into an unpredictable orbit and ceased to exist" seems to sum up a lot about Russia these days.

[Haiduk]

Unknown how true this is

In UK on F-16 will learn pilots-graduates of 2023. 

In Sweden will learn pilots with combat experience, graduates of 2016.

Looks like veterans will continue to fight on Soviet jets. 

 

Edited August 20, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Russian post on LostArmor about Robotyne and comment of UKR soldier, probably serviceman of drone-recon team from that direction

Russian post (of Aug 19th):

- Half of Rabotino is under "khohols". They fixed and hold positions

- Is this yesterday attack? Do ours counter-attack inside Rabotino?

- They fixed yesterday. There are position clashes. East from the village without changes.

UKR comment:

- Yeah, they counter-attack, why not /sarcasm/. Let they rake all what burned down on their positions in Novoprokopivka [recall FIRMS data in my post above]. And why they have so much of "500th" (deserters). And after that, they can launch counter-atatck ))) 

 

Edited August 20, 2023 by Haiduk

[Splinty]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This one goes out to Splinty... Bradleys on the advance:

Looks to be good spacing and communications between the Brad commanders appears to be excellent.  The two at the start go back and forth as if they are controlled by a Human Player in CMBS   This is really good to see because I've noticed a lot of clumsy coordination, if even that, between vehicles. Going fast according to plan works out OK, but if anything off plan happens things often appear to get messy fast.  This seems to me an example of training and combat experience paying off.

Splinty, what is your take on it?

Steve

Looks pretty good. A US unit would move out and space themselves the same way. Does anyone know if Ukrainian Units with NATO gear are organized in platoons of 3 vehicles (Soviet style) or 4 (NATO standard))?

Edited August 20, 2023 by Splinty
Bad grammar

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, Splinty said:

Looks pretty good. A US unit would move out and space themselves the same way. Does anyone know if Ukrainian Units with NATO gear are organized in platoons of 3 vehicles (Soviet style) or 4 (NATO standard))?

I have a feeling that 3, though was a sharp discussion about this is nonsense to use modern western armor according to Soviet-era "shtat", especially tanks, which should work in pair.  

[Haiduk]

Russian TG is alarming.

I confirm. Situation is terrible. Fascists advance toward directions Zavitne Bazhannia and Staromlynivka

[Haiduk]

I wonder, what warhead had Iskander-M missile, which struck the theater building in Chernihiv yesterday. Even though this building has tough construction, usual 500 kg HEFRAG warhed with at least 200 kg of HE had to cause more destructions. But all what we can see is just completely destroyed roof and the loft. 

This video of strike shows the stream of flame directed from theater to the square. 

Among various warhead types, using by Iskander we can see cluster thermobaric one, which unlike thermobaric aviation bomb ODAB-500 creates not spherical, but linear cloud, hitting targets on the ground on 30 m. Though on the video, where the missile hit a roof (or has exploded slighly over?) we don't see any cluster elements. But Iskander-M hasn't pure thermobaric warhead.  

 

Edited August 20, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

UKR TGs say UKR troops seized new positions aside of Robotyne, probably from western side between Robotyne and Kopani. Inside Robotyne both sides exchange with assaults and skirmishes. 

Also one source has hinted Russians had bad day in Kopani village.

[ZPB II]

I can see with my mind's eye the headlines about Luna-25:

"Russian Ministry of Defence announces the testing of the world's first interplanetary kamikaze drone. Ministry officials confirmed early sunday that the advanced prototype had successfully hit a mock-up hospital on the surface of the Moon."

Edited August 20, 2023 by ZPB II

[Haiduk]

Russian 2S7M Malka was spotted by 3rd SOF regiment operators and got close hit of HIMARS. Radio interception at the end of video - Russian crewman asks about evacuation of wounded, they have four badly wounded and one killed.