How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kevinkin]

10 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Meanwhile, his army must “Keep Calm and Carry On”.

If the writer was referring to Erwin Schrödinger and the cat thought experiment the reference might have been missed by some. Thanks for the link. The writer is definitely a hawk. This is an interesting point:

Calling off their offensive is why the Wagner Group and the Chechen forces, the Waffen-SS attack-dogs of Moscow’s armies, have been withdrawn. Well equipped and encouraged to use rape, torture and looting as their tools of terror, these beserkers are only of value in spearheading attacks. They have no value in a defensive war, fighting to hold territory and operating alongside Russian troops who loathe them.

With it has evaporated the need for Wagner in Ukraine. Instead, Wagner’s killers and criminals lurk in Belarus. This makes perfect sense, given Putin’s ultimate aim of reabsorbing Belarus back into the Russian Empire.

[FancyCat]

Someone that will be important to understanding if Ukraine is engaging in successful actions is the rate of attrition and losses vs territory gained, one other factor is the time and distance and how Russia reacts to it. A grinding push to the Azov Sea vs a collapse of Russian forces beyond the first line of defense are two different sides of the coin. I've seen tweets pointing out new Russian defensive belts being created on satellite.

Sure, personnel maybe running low, but those stats are obscured from us and Ukraine's manpower is as well.

ISR is great, but you still need the weapon systems to lob a shell to take out whatever is identified.

In that sense, I think I'm quite confident in stating allowing cluster munitions to Ukraine is a very important decision, on par with the supply of artillery rounds and systems to Ukraine that had the same go around of Western reluctance. Anything that helps sustain Ukraine's ability to attrict Russia is important. Thousands, hundreds of thousands of shells is no small deal.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/08/16/ukraines-counter-offensive-is-making-progress-slowly

Ukraine’s counter-offensive is making progress, slowly

Ten weeks in, the army is starting to figure out what works

 

I think it JonS who pointed out that the poor bloody infantry may not improve all that much, but battalion and brigade staffs live long enough to actually learn. 

[FancyCat]

 

Quote

We can debate how attrition will affect Russian defences over the summer. But I strongly disagree with all three claims here. Ukraine has not merely been “testing” Russian defences, most Ukr brigades ARE now involved & this IS “the real counter-offensive”.

 

[Vet 0369]

23 hours ago, Haiduk said:

The scene, worthy of movie %) 

UKR machine-gunner of 3rd assault brigade lies together with captured Russian and talks with him:

- So, what do you do here?

- I went to enlistment office to get military ID - I'm 33 y.o, - in order to get a job [by the law employer can't hire a man without military ID]. But theese pidars just shoved me in here, fu..k. I even didn't serve in army, fu...k

- I'l just f...k it 

- I have three children

- I'l just f...k it... Let even ten. 

 

Hmmm, that single shot at the end of th vid is certainly ominous! I hope it wasn’t what I think it could be.

[Vet 0369]

24 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Hmmm, that single shot at the end of th vid is certainly ominous! I hope it wasn’t what I think it could be.

Also, it is possible that this is part of the UKR PsyOps. The first thing you do with a prisoner, is to strip him of all his equipment and search him to ensure that he isn’t retaining anything he can use to harm you. The second is to evacuate him out of the danger zone. Prisoners might have information that is too valuable to risk him being killed. You don’t leave him lying next to a weapons position that is a prime target. In the vid, the prisoner is just lying there in full gear. Maybe that single shot at the end was him killing the gunner with a hidden handgun. It did sound like a pistol shot, not a rifle shot.

[Twisk]

37 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Hmmm, that single shot at the end of th vid is certainly ominous! I hope it wasn’t what I think it could be.

I feel like I am pointing out the obvious here but listen to any other first person combat audio. That isn't the sound of a close range gunshot.

[Haiduk]

Russian sources wrote, this morning "after intensive artilery strikes UKR troops launched next mass offensive on Rabotino"... ehmm... with FOUR Strikers (yes, really mass). But attack was repelled and "our helicopters now hunting on enemy, lurking in trees"

As a result of this hunting - 47th brigade shot down Ka-52 with MANPAD (I've seen claims it was Robot 70, but it's can be verified). Russian Fighterbomber TG confirmed this loss simultainously with issuing of photo by 47th brigade, but he rejected that Ukraine troops shot down second Ka-52 on Bakhmut direction also this morning as claimed UKR General Staff. Pilot of sowned Ka-52 ejected, the navigator has died. 

Moment of Ka-52 hit

UKR TG tells about fight in Robotyne:

The battle is continuing in Robotyne. The meat grinder not easier than in Klishchiivka. Most of Russian units, that are sent in assaults have been loosing up to 40 % of personnel for a battle, so Russians have been throwing each time new "not local" infantry. 

We also have hard situation. "Pidors" have strongpoint behind the village from whic they perfectly can look over terrain  [the location between Robotyne and Novoprokopivka village next to south is highest point],  so the they have good opportunity for ATGMing of our vehicles

From both sides all the time heavy artilery and aviation have been working. Russians drop bombs on Orikhiv 

Some videos from RIbotyne area:

Next UKR Bradley after direct hit of Russian tank (as claimed cameraman). ERA blocks looks like saved vehicle and it can be repaired

 

Bradley delivered wounded soldiers after next attack

 

Edited August 17, 2023 by Haiduk

[Chibot Mk IX]

Just saw on twitter there is one more confirmed Ka-52 kills. Interesting to see more and more alligators fall to the victim of Manpads.

Back in June Alligators brought so much havoc among concentrated UKR armor column.  They can hide deep in the friendly controlled territory, share information with surveillance drone and infantry posts, then jump out and fire at max range. In June Ukrainian claimed shot down several Ka-52 but none can be confirmed. Now after UKR force slowly penetrate the minefield and took a distributed formation, the Ka-52’s old trick doesn’t work as it used to be anymore. 

 

[Haiduk]

28 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Also, it is possible that this is part of the UKR PsyOps. The first thing you do with a prisoner, is to strip him of all his equipment and search him to ensure that he isn’t retaining anything he can use to harm you. The second is to evacuate him out of the danger zone. Prisoners might have information that is too valuable to risk him being killed. You don’t leave him lying next to a weapons position that is a prime target. In the vid, the prisoner is just lying there in full gear. Maybe that single shot at the end was him killing the gunner with a hidden handgun. It did sound like a pistol shot, not a rifle shot.

3rd assault have no time to play in PsyOps. They always show live action. The war as it is. But all their videos, of course passed permition of their commanders. I doubt they would allowed a video with situation, where UKR soldier is shot dead by POW.

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

3rd assault have no time to play in PsyOps. They always show live action. The war as it is. But all their videos, of course passed permition of their commanders. I doubt they would allowed a video with situation, where UKR soldier is shot dead by POW.

Yup.  And if something like that did happen they would have shown the whole thing to show how horrible the Russians are.  Therefore, the most likely situation is the guy surrendered, they were under fire and couldn't do much, then the video cut out because there wasn't anything interesting or there were OPSEC issues.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Bradley delivered wounded soldiers after next attack

 

That's a lot of wounded   Although I think the Russian sources overstate Ukrainian losses and skip over their horrific ones, it is pretty clear that Ukraine is suffering significant casualties in these relatively small scale battles.  If Russia is taking 40%, Ukraine is could be taking 10%.  If that is the case it's still wildly positive for Ukraine compared to traditional attacker vs. defender in fixed defenses, but it's still a massive cost to suffer.

I like the fact we keep seeing information, of different sorts, confirming that Russia is struggling to hold onto this territory.  Old units are used up, new ones come in, they get used up, new ones come in, they get used up, etc.  That's very good.

Steve

[Chibot Mk IX]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The fact that Russia wants to defend the outer belt of defenses to this extent tells me that they don't have much confidence in defending the next line any better.  Probably also some combination of a Stalin like moronic override of sound military decision making in favor of "no inch of soil lost to the enemy" commandment from Putin and/or someone trying to keep his job.

 

This will make more sense if we put the thinking of maneuver warfare aside and adopt to the Pacific war mindset. In pacific war the US and Japanese fight inch by inch on some uninhabitable islands, the objective is to put the other side’s main base and sea lane behind it into the bomber’s range. They fight on Guadalcanal to prevent the IJN’s torpedo bomber interdict the communication between Australia and Vanuatu. Fight on the New Guinea to isolate Rabaul. Fight on Saipan so that the B-29 can reach mainland Japan.

Russian on the Southern front might have the same mindset. One inch step back means UKR’s artillery group is one inch closer to the main supply artery.  

 

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

I think it JonS who pointed out that the poor bloody infantry may not improve all that much, but battalion and brigade staffs live long enough to actually learn. 

That would apply to both sides. The question is which side is learning faster on things that apply to the terrain they are fighting for. And the replacement rate of the poor souls being directed by those staffs. We just don't know. PS: note my signature statement below. Does NATO really understand this war? 

Edited August 17, 2023 by kevinkin

[ZPB II]

A little something about the effectiveness of cluster munitions:
 

[dan/california]

5 hours ago, ZPB II said:

A little something about the effectiveness of cluster munitions:
 

With airpower not being a factor, and cluster munitions introduced mid way thru the offensive post war analysis should produce the cleanest data we could ever ask for about their effectiveness. Hopefully that data will end the careers of the people who didn't send it sooner.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1692223682675101964.html

 

Putin is determined to leave nothing but ashes behind him.

 

[kevinkin]

23 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Hopefully that data will end the careers of the people who didn't send it sooner.

Clusters or airpower? Or both. I say both. 

[MikeyD]

If you can shoot down incoming ballistic missiles with S300s you can shoot down incoming aircraft too. There's a reason why nobody on either side is overflying the other guy's territory.

[dan/california]

21 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Clusters or airpower? Or both. I say both. 

I am talking about DPICM, because we have done closest thing humanly possible to a controlled experiment in a real war. It was introduced after weeks of heavy fighting, and is being shot by the same crews through the same barrels. The thing that we won't be able to sort until the detailed post war analysis is how much of the difference was the type of ammo, and how much of it was just having ENOUGH ammo. 

Edit: and at at exactly the same type of targets.

Edited August 18, 2023 by dan/california

[kevinkin]

15 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

If you can shoot down incoming ballistic missiles with S300s you can shoot down incoming aircraft too. There's a reason why nobody on either side is overflying the other guy's territory.

Well their goes trillions in US tax dollars. What a waste of money. LOL. But seriously, NATO could take down Russian SAM systems in little more than a week and gain air supremacy over Ukraine. Remember the golden rule of this thread - Russians are idiots. 

[kevinkin]

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

controlled experiment

It's not as controlled as you suggest because the enemy has a say in the matter in the way they adapt. That can't be controlled and held constant. 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

Well their goes trillions in US tax dollars. What a waste of money. LOL. But seriously, NATO could take down Russian SAM systems in little more than a week and gain air supremacy over Ukraine. Remember the golden rule of this thread - Russians are idiots. 

The thing is that NATO airforces have spent all those trillions on capabilities that both Ukrainians and Russians lack.  I also suspect that NATO could wreck Russia's air defenses within days.  Not necessarily because they are idiots, but because they simply don't have the ability to defeat a concerted challenge by NATO. 

Speaking of which:

 

Looks like we finally have motion on F-16s:

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/17/f-16-us-ukraine-denmark-netherlands-00111769

Steve

[kevinkin]

Over at ISW we have some must read key take aways:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2023

For example:

“Vostok” Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky suggested that Russia freeze the war in Ukraine along the current frontlines, reintroducing a narrative that had been largely dormant since Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s armed rebellion. Khodakovsky stated that Russia will not be able to topple Ukraine militarily in the near term and that Russian forces are unlikely to easily occupy additional Ukrainian cities, echoing comments Prigozhin had made in April 2023.[1] Khodakovsky concluded that Russia will likely have to come to a “truce” and that Russia may enter a phase “of neither peace nor war” with Ukraine.[2] Khodakovsky suggested that Ukraine would be sufficiently weakened in this state of frozen conflict and that Russia would be able to exert more influence over Ukraine in such a situation than it currently can during the ”Special Military Operation.”[3] 

Hard to argue with that strategy. What a nightmare for the Ukrainian people. How can they rebuild under such a scenario? Build a school - Iranian drone destroys the school. Build a housing complex - Iranian drone destroys the complex. Have a baby - Iranian drone destroys the maternity ward. Regardless of where the lines fall, Ukraine will not be whole until it's under NATO's umbrella and anything thrown at them is shot out of the skies. 

[Battlefront.com]

Apparently Ukraine hit a command post in Soledar yesterday:

And this nice shot of smoke being used at night by a Bradley:

Steve