How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[womble]

34 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

I got it from an article. It will be chaos, cell phones will be non functional and people won't be able to do their daily shopping with them. 

27. Banks Will Be Overrun
It is clear that one of the biggest things that could likely happen if we lost the internet

Maybe actually read and understand the article and find the difference between what it said, which is probably based on truth and what you said which is arrant nonsense.

Hint: "The Internet" is not, by and large, dependent on satellites. Neither are cell phones. See those masts everywhere? They're not satellites, and they're not linked by satellites.

2 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

The technology is here to knock all the internet dependent satellites.

May be true, but it is irrelevant to most day-to-day usage of the Internet, at the individual, corporate and governmental levels.

[chuckdyke]

Well Starlink on which Ukraine depends is active here as well. 

Order Starlink

 

[Haiduk]

Yesterday mass missiles strike was directed mostly airfields and military infrastructure in western part of Ukraine. Most of missiles and Shakheds were launched on Starokostiantyniv airfield. 

First wave: 14 Kalibrs (12 shot down), 3 Kinzhals (AF command rejected to comment eitehr were intercepted these missiles or not)

Second wave: 6 Kalibrs (5 shot down), 27 Shakheds (all intercepted)

Third wave: 20 Kh-101/555 (13 shot down)

Russian strike was timed to today's Ukrianian Air Forces Day. 

 

[Haiduk]

Last three days we have some fading of active warfare, because it's very hot, +33-35 C (92...95 F) in the shadow. 

On the video a soldier twists own under armor T-shirt, soaked in sweat 

 

[chuckdyke]

8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

33-35 C

For us that is a mild summer's day, but wearing a jacket makes it indeed warm.

[poesel]

10 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

 

Taurus has no stealth ability (Storm Shadow / SCALP have) and is sub-sonic. That means its survivability would be very low in this war.

SS & SCALP are built on the same technology, while Taurus is different. An extra adapter to the Su-24 would have to be developed (I guess).

As much as I wish it not to be, Taurus is rather useless here and also expensive to employ.

[Haiduk]

"Bober" kamikadze drone in the sky of Moscow oblast caused several hours closing one of Moscow airports Vnukovo. Moscow authorities claimed the drone was shot down

 

[Haiduk]

Russian wasted a bulk of missiles on Starokostiantyniv airfield, but.... Su-24 today struck Chonhar bridge again. Occupation authorities write about 3-4 missiles. No information about damage

PS. Maybe the same strike, not Chonhar, but Henichesk area - reportedly several impacts near the bridge on Arabatska spit. Locals say a gas pipe damaged, no info about bridge condition

 

Edited August 6, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

YPR-765 after Lancet hit. Likely the hollow charge stream penetrated personnel compartmet from the top and didn't hurt engine or crew, so APC saved drive capabilities

 

[Haiduk]

Reportedly both bridges were attacked - Chonhar and Henichesk. Early Henichesk bridge was closed for civilian passing and used for military movement. 

Allegedly damages on Chonhar bridge

Henichesk bridge. Video of impact and photo of results - the flame on background is of gas pipe 

 

A few moments before. A SCALP missile on the bridge with personal autograph of Zelenskiy )

Edited August 6, 2023 by Haiduk

[kevinkin]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-and-china-sent-large-naval-patrol-near-alaska-127de28b

Sen. Dan Sullivan of Alaska, a Republican member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said the patrol was a reminder that the U.S. has entered “a new era of authoritarian aggression” and applauded the robust U.S. response.

Making a sales call for the UA? As if this is going to stop US aid. But still, go practice somewhere else. 

[Aragorn2002]

13 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Good, thorough look at the war of attrition.  yes, confirmation bias for those of us who believe UKR will prevail.  Though sooner is better for UKR (and the world) since all kinds of non-linear events could change the dynamic (RU extortion via energy, food, etc).  But for now, this feller's math says RU is being heavily degraded while UKR is receiving replacing its loses, at least in vehicle losses.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/5/2184924/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-s-war-of-attrition-can-break-Russia-and-it-won-t-take-years

 

Interesting article, Dan, thanks. I hope the author is right. 

[kevinkin]

From the Sunday NYT:

https://dnyuz.com/2023/08/06/putins-forever-war/

Travel log around war torn Russia. 

[Haiduk]

You can see two bridges in Henichesk area on the map, but eastern one is "Iron bridge" - old railway bridge, which was assembled temporary in 1951 (it was moved here from Belarusian city Orsha). Now this bridge is in very bad conditions and uses only as pedestrian and sometime for cars.

 

Edited August 6, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Chonhar bridge now from air

 

Henichesk bridge

[sburke]

4 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

Well Starlink on which Ukraine depends is active here as well. 

Order Starlink

 

I am pretty certain Ukraine had internet before Starlink.  Starlink just allows you to avoid the time and infrastructure cost to lay fiber and the wifi network and of course have that whole network operate at the whim of a flaky rich dude.

Edited August 6, 2023 by sburke

[Haiduk]

40 minutes ago, sburke said:

I am pretty certain Ukraine had internet before Starlink.  Starlink just allows you to avoid the time and infrastructure cost to lay fiber and the wifi network and of course have that whole network operate at the whim of a flaky rich dude.

In military aspect all our military networks, including a work of various situation awarness and targeting software were tied on one commercial Ka-satellite. But in first hours of war Russian EW assets and cyber-attacks caused huge interferences for this satellite channel and only since several days of technical and cyber-security counter measures, satellite network was mostly restored, but because of technical parameters were discredited and was a risk Russians will affect the channel again, the choice fell on Starlink. 

PS. It's weird, but all information about satellite, frequencies and settings of equipment, any could find in a textbook for communication troops specialists, uploaded in internet %) 

Edited August 6, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

SCALP EG under the wing of Su-24. EG is export modificatin with 290 km of range.

Edited August 6, 2023 by Haiduk

[chrisl]

27 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

In military aspect all our military networks, including a work of various situation awarness and targeting software were tied on one commercial Ka-satellite. But in first hours of war Russian EW assets and cyber-attacks caused huge interferences for this satellite channel and only since several days of technical and cyber-security counter measures, satellite network was mostly restored, but because of technical parameters were discredited and was a risk Russians will affect the channel again, the choice fell on Starlink. 

PS. It's weird, but all information about satellite, frequencies and settings of equipment, any could find in a textbook for communication troops specialists, uploaded in internet %) 

It's because it's not possible to keep secret - everything in orbit larger than a softball is tracked by radar, and at most you can keep it secret for a few orbits until it passes over someone's radar. Sometimes people (or well funded agencies) can take photographs with telescopes on the ground and figure out what a satellite does.

 Radio frequencies are similar - there are standard bands for transmission that are determined by the atmosphere, and if you're transmitting enough that your friends can receive the signal, then your enemies can at least get the frequency, too.  NATO has an assortment of aircraft bristling with antennas to detect and process all the RF in an area.

What you can keep secret is what a satellite is doing.  Sometimes you can tell from the pictures, sometimes you can't.  You can also keep secret what you're transmitting on a radio frequency - that's why there are encrypted radios.  But someone with the right equipment, which isn't all that expensive or hard to get, can tell exactly where you are and what frequency you're using.

[Battlefront.com]

It's always a good day when I check this thread and find yet another critical Russian bridge suffering from new structural problems

I get the feeling that Ukraine is repeating what it did last year at Kherson.  If you all recall, they did not immediately put the bridges out of action as soon as they technically could have.  At the time we speculated as to why, with a good argument being made that Ukraine wanted to ensure Russia invested heavily in Kherson before the bridges were put out of action.  Then we saw the operation in Kharkiv which made it even more plausible that was the plan all along.

Again with this counter offensive, Ukraine had the ability to punch holes in key bridges for months now.  Certainly they had plenty of time to plan these sorts of things to coincide with the start of the ground offensive.  Yet they didn't.  I think it is safe to assume this was a conscious choice by Ukraine.

My guess is they once again wanted to ensure Russia had committed itself to the south before getting into logistics problems.  Maybe they think that has happened and therefore the timing is right for large scale interference with logistics.  For sure there's been a large investment in making that happen.

Steve

[chrisl]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It's always a good day when I check this thread and find yet another critical Russian bridge suffering from new structural problems

I get the feeling that Ukraine is repeating what it did last year at Kherson.  If you all recall, they did not immediately put the bridges out of action as soon as they technically could have.  At the time we speculated as to why, with a good argument being made that Ukraine wanted to ensure Russia invested heavily in Kherson before the bridges were put out of action.  Then we saw the operation in Kharkiv which made it even more plausible that was the plan all along.

Again with this counter offensive, Ukraine had the ability to punch holes in key bridges for months now.  Certainly they had plenty of time to plan these sorts of things to coincide with the start of the ground offensive.  Yet they didn't.  I think it is safe to assume this was a conscious choice by Ukraine.

My guess is they once again wanted to ensure Russia had committed itself to the south before getting into logistics problems.  Maybe they think that has happened and therefore the timing is right for large scale interference with logistics.  For sure there's been a large investment in making that happen.

Steve

And Russia already cut off much of the water supply to Crimea itself when they blew the dam.

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

another critical Russian bridge suffering from new structural problems

Henichesk and Chonhar bridges are auxiliary ways - main is through isthmus on Perekop, though, they both shorten logistic distance for Melitipol direction. But Chonhar bridge, if even will be destroyed could be easily substituted by pontoons - wide of water obstacle is not big. Right from Chonhar bridge is old bridge, likely also in not very good conditions

Also you can see impact of second SCALP betweeen bridges.  

 

Edited August 6, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Timed to Air Forces Day, USA and Germany handed over to Ukraine Patriot PAC-2 and Iris-T. Zelenskiy and Zaluzhnyi on airfield, and new SAMs on background. 

PAC-3 will be better of course, but let's see, how PAC-2 will deal with Onyx if it will be deployed near Odesa....

[Haiduk]

UKR Mi-24 over wheat field on Zaporizhzhia front

 

[Haiduk]

19 y.o. Russian sniper, was killed on 11th of June 2023 near Vasylivka town. I wonder, in what unit he served with Mosin rifle... In June there was clashes for Lobkove and Pyatykahtky on Vasylivka direction. There weren't LDPR units as I know... And due to his young age I doubt he was a mobik. 

  

Edited August 6, 2023 by Haiduk