How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Raptor341]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

They selected a U.S sanctioned apparently empty cargo ship if the recording is true, seemingly very high standards of target selection. 

can't even have environmentalists decrying spilled fuel over a potential sinking. 

 

 

Helped track that ship last year, makes me happy to see it hopefully out of service. 

[Haiduk]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ukraine carefully selects its targets to conform to international law.  Sinking a Russian civilian ship transporting civilian cargo would beg a no-no.

Civilian and cargo are not equal. Civilian is a passenger cruise liner, for example. Any "civil" cargo ship can potentially carry military or dual purpose cargo. Russian civil freighters for example, were involved in so-called "Syria express" along with military auxiliary vessels and landing ships, carring vehicles, ammunition and fuel.   

Since 21st of July, according to decision of National Security Council     A N Y   cargo ship, heading to Russian ports or to ports on occupied Ukrainian territory can be considered as those, which carry military-related cargo with all risks for them. Also since 20th of July, due to the same decision, Ukraine prohibited any shipping in Kerch strait as potentially dangerous and this statement was shared to all ship-operators. 

Also together with this decisions Zelenskiy made a statement that Ukraine will be more and more to transfer a war on Russian territory. Most of Russian population support the war or indiffrent and think this is "too far" from them.

This is not a border conflict, not a conflict with civilized opponent, where both sides stick to different rules of war and conventions. This is the same existential war on annihilation as WWII. We can't win this war wearing a "white coat" in order not to make nervous different lefist organizations like HRW and some western governments representatives, expectng in horror nukes because of each UKR strike on Russian territory. Of course, we can't do retaliation carpet bombing like on Drezden in 21st century, but we will strike enemy economical infrastructure and significant objects like Moscow towers (by the way only two "broken windows" caused start of exodus from these towers some commercial tenants and appartment leesess - and this is also economical losses for towers owners)

Video of strike on the tanker:

 

Edited August 5, 2023 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

For all that Kofman et al think that the UKR Veteran brigades should have gotten the Western equipment, there is a significant long term factor not mentioned - the new units have a comparative very high survival rate of personnel from the destruction of their vehicles. Modern western personal body armor and medical training/gear has also  increased the survival rate from mine/artillery explosions.

Just think - if that unit with Bradleys and Leos which got stuck in a minefield and hit by KA52s, artillery (eventually) and ATGMs had been in Soviet gear then it would absolutely have been a massacre. A Ukrainian Vuhledar. 

It wasn't, and that unit carried its experience through to the next fight and the next. Also, I'd be very, very surprised if that experience was not fed back into the waiting reserve units. They're not just sitting around picking daisies, they must be absorbing the latest experience and training, training, training. 

I guess the proof of that latter hypothesis will be in how the 10th Corps does...

Kofman's point that the veteran brigades would have broken through is certainly valid/possible, but if you're thinking long term, ie 1-2 years within the context of the war, then maximizing survival rates of your newer brigades would be vital for force sustainment, offensive momentum,  force development and crucially, public & army morale.

Edited August 5, 2023 by Kinophile

[Haiduk]

45 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

For all that Kofman et al think that the UKR Veteran brigades should have gotten the Western equipment

When first modern western armor became to arrive in Ukraine, I've read some indignant posts of "veterane brigades" representatives, why Bradleys got 47th, which "sit on their asses on Belarusian border, when we barely hold the enemy on donated techniclas"

I wonder, who on Kofman's opinion had to hold frontline, when veteran brigades would be leave Ukraine for training on western vehicles? They gave opportunity to train several other brigades instead. Also what he meant under "veteran brigades"? The same 47th brigade has many brigade level commanders transferred from 93rd brigade. Also, there are problem with many veterans, especialy who fought long time in ATO - they have "old warrior" complex and they have a problems to learn new features. About this wrote Roman Donik, UKR volunteer, who established the center of intensive effective training for infantrimen and squad leaders. He told many of "olds" , arriving to the center believed initially their survival under fire and intuition experience is better than field manual tatic instructions. And not all of them could finish the course and some of them were dropped out. Also German instructors told sometime experienced UKR soldiers don't want to listen them and enter to the disputes (though, after "you should bypass minefield" I not wonder). So, in some aspect will be better to teach a soldier from "zero level civilian", then re-train "old" servicemen. 

 

Edited August 5, 2023 by Haiduk

[Letter from Prague]

So what about the bridge? Were these explosions attacks on ships around the bridge instead? Or did it go boom as well and we don't have pictures yet?

[Haiduk]

10 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

So what about the bridge? Were these explosions attacks on ships around the bridge instead? Or did it go boom as well and we don't have pictures yet?

No attacks on bridge, as turned out. That explosion and the glow, which was taken for bridge hit, turned out strike of the tanker. One local Russian officials told about three maritime drones, other told AD shot down UAV near the bridge, but no exact information, except tanker hit    

[Ales Dvorak]

12 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I even knew how to ask the ladies if I could buy them a drink  

Was it successful?

[holoween]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

It is surprising to me that the Lancet is able to bust open a Leo 2 as easily as they seem to be able to do.  The drone is effectively a relatively small, low velocity HEAT round.  A standard NATO 120mm HEAT round has roughly 2x as much mass as the Lancet-3 (which I presume these recent hits are) and has a major kinetic aspect that no drone can duplicate.  Yet consistently when they hit Leo 2s they take them out, unlike when they hit something with ERA (like the Bradley we just saw).

Steve

The most obvious thing to note for me is that with the exception of the one with the blown out blowout panel all seem to have been abandoned in good order and are just being finished off with the lancets.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/15h9rt2/german_leopard_2a6_tank_taken_out_by_the_lancet/

Left track is blown with two armour panels missing so probably a minestrike.

But the turret is turned slightly left to allow the driver to easily get out of the tank, the turret mg is missing and the hatchets are closed.

https://www.reddit.com/r/DestroyedTanks/comments/14601r1/leopard_2a6_abandoned_and_struck_by_lancet_drone/

Here a single armour panel is missing this time on the right side and while the track isnt obviously down it seems like its a mine hit just like the tank before.

Again the turret is slightly left, mg is missing and hatches are closed.

The both also didnt use their smoke launchers so its unlikely they had to abandon the tanks under direct fire.

It is however also hard to tell how much damage exactly the lancets did. on each hit there are two distinct smoke clouds. One brown one from the lancets explosives and a white one from the smokelaunchers but the videos cout out before the smike dissipates so its unknown if they did much more than blow the smokelaunchers off.

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1687504028773519361

This one is different because they dont have the turret to the left and the commanders hatch is still open. Its basically impossible to tell hat exactly happened to it but id argue it certainly was abandoned before the ammo storage was hit.

The blowout panel also worked as intended as id expect the loaders hatch to be blown open aswell. I suspect there was also more than the one obvious hit on this side. The NBC systems hatch is blown open and clearly ben broken in half and a 2cm strong armured steel panel doesnt just break. The left fueltank has also ben blown open.

 

 

 

[cesmonkey]

Something cryptic from Mashovets:

https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1083

Quote

Zvizdets Mongoose
In the Berdyansk direction ... interesting events

It seems that on the border of the village of Priyutnoye - the village of Cherished Desire, the enemy is again planning some kind of "incident". The same as in the area of the village of Urozhaynoye.

More details - on Monday...

Unfortunately, during Saturday - Sunday, due to objective circumstances, I will not be able to write a review. But on Monday we'll try to figure it out in more detail ...

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, holoween said:

The most obvious thing to note for me is that with the exception of the one with the blown out blowout panel all seem to have been abandoned in good order and are just being finished off with the lancets.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/15h9rt2/german_leopard_2a6_tank_taken_out_by_the_lancet/

Left track is blown with two armour panels missing so probably a minestrike.

But the turret is turned slightly left to allow the driver to easily get out of the tank, the turret mg is missing and the hatchets are closed.

https://www.reddit.com/r/DestroyedTanks/comments/14601r1/leopard_2a6_abandoned_and_struck_by_lancet_drone/

Here a single armour panel is missing this time on the right side and while the track isnt obviously down it seems like its a mine hit just like the tank before.

Again the turret is slightly left, mg is missing and hatches are closed.

The both also didnt use their smoke launchers so its unlikely they had to abandon the tanks under direct fire.

It is however also hard to tell how much damage exactly the lancets did. on each hit there are two distinct smoke clouds. One brown one from the lancets explosives and a white one from the smokelaunchers but the videos cout out before the smike dissipates so its unknown if they did much more than blow the smokelaunchers off.

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1687504028773519361

This one is different because they dont have the turret to the left and the commanders hatch is still open. Its basically impossible to tell hat exactly happened to it but id argue it certainly was abandoned before the ammo storage was hit.

The blowout panel also worked as intended as id expect the loaders hatch to be blown open aswell. I suspect there was also more than the one obvious hit on this side. The NBC systems hatch is blown open and clearly ben broken in half and a 2cm strong armured steel panel doesnt just break. The left fueltank has also ben blown open.

 

 

 

For sure the Leos are performing their crew survivability role admirably.  All the examples I've seen, as you have, show clear signs of crew abandonment.  Which is a major feature of Western designed tanks, so as has been pointed out here many times, using them for the most dangerous rolls is a good idea.

My point is that I'm surprised how much damage the Lancet can do to a Leo.  I'm not looking forward to seeing Abrams hit by Lancets, but I certainly am curious about how it compares.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Ales Dvorak said:

Was it successful?

Actually, yes!  And a Slovene too   Pretty funny set of circumstances led up to that.  For the record, we simply enjoyed each others' company for a few days.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Kofman's point that the veteran brigades would have broken through is certainly valid/possible,

Certainly possible, but I think highly unlikely.  Besides the logistics issues Haiduk mentioned, which could have endangered frontline stability in the winter, the defenses are simply too dense for tactical experience to matter much.  Now that Ukraine has tried things the NATO way (less air support and lots of fancy armor), things seem to be going pretty well even for the new brigades.

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

So, in some aspect will be better to teach a soldier from "zero level civilian", then re-train "old" servicemen. 

Absolutely agree with this.  Without pulling the veteran unit out of the line for ALMOST as much time as the raw unit, the likely result would be veterans using a Bradley the same way they are using a BMP or YPR.  Which would not be ideal for either the men or the machines.  I would think the newly trained unit would handle it better.

This gets us back to the problem Ukraine faced last year with donated equipment.  Getting them upgraded Soviet stuff was the right call because it involved very little need to pull units out of the line.  There's a big difference between taking an experienced T-72 crew and saying "here's a new one with better fire control systems" and "here's a Leo 2.  Oh, and I hope you have good comprehension of the Latin alphabet and German language, otherwise you won't be able to operate anything."

Steve

[holoween]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

My point is that I'm surprised how much damage the Lancet can do to a Leo.  I'm not looking forward to seeing Abrams hit by Lancets, but I certainly am curious about how it compares.

Steve

https://below-the-turret-ring.blogspot.com/2015/06/cold-war-mbt-turret-designs.html

Possibly somewhat better given they have thicker armour along the entire length of the turret.

The lancets seem to be very deliberately aimed at the rear torret sides on the leo2.

[Haiduk]

Ukraine claimed water areas of Russian Black Sea ports as war risk areas since 4th of August. 

[holoween]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

 "here's a Leo 2.  Oh, and I hope you have good comprehension of the Latin alphabet and German language, otherwise you won't be able to operate anything."

Steve

That really wasnt the difficult thing

[Haiduk]

50 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

My point is that I'm surprised how much damage the Lancet can do to a Leo.

"Lancet" uses as warhead old Soviet HEAT charge KZ-6 for sapper works. It has diameter 112 mm and 1,8 kg of TG-50 (50/50 TNT + Hexogen) HE. In comparison usual Soviet 3BK18 tank HEAT shell has 125 mm diameter and 1,76 kg of A-IX-1 (flegmatized hexogen) HE. TG-50 is weaker then A-IX-1, but it's enough to penetrate 215 mm of armor. So, turret top and rear/side-rear parts of turret easily can be penetrated by Lancet, causing fire of charges. Thus, "Lancet" is almost fying tank HEAT shell.  

I doubt either can help ERA mounting on these zones or not if the armor in that areas is too weak for ERA charge explosion

Edited August 5, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

22 minutes ago, holoween said:

That really wasnt the difficult thing

On the stickers is a terrible mix of words in Russian, Ukrainian-on-Russian manner and some in Ukrainian %)  

Edited August 5, 2023 by Haiduk

[holoween]

8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

On the stickers is a terrible mix of words in Russian, Ukrainian-on-Russian manner and some in Ukrainian %)  

damn i guess the translators didnt do a great job then.

at least they tried i guess

[kevinkin]

Let's see if Vlad makes his schedule public:

https://dnyuz.com/2023/08/05/man-of-the-people-jolted-by-a-mutiny-putin-works-the-crowds/

[Haiduk]

12 minutes ago, holoween said:

damn i guess the translators didnt do a great job then.

at least they tried i guess

They could do that in Russian only ) On top sticker is written "кулимет" ("kulymet",correctly spelling have to be "кулемет" - "kulemet") on the bottom one "пулемет" ("pulemiot") - both are mean "machine gun", but first in Ukrainian, the second in Russian ). 

"Система навиденния зброи" (reads as "sistema navidienniya zbroi") is an example of Ukrianian-on-Russian manner - in Russian it will be "sistema naviedieniya oruzhiya"). In Ukrianian it's have to be "система наведення зброї" ("systema navedennia zbroyi")

Edited August 5, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Ukraine under missile attack again. Four Kalibrs were launched from submarine. Since 30-40 minutes three launches of unknown number of Kinzhals. Additionally one or two ballistic missiles on Zaporizhzhia city and one ballistic missile in unknown direction from Belarus. 

Reportedly most of launched missiles were directed on Starikostiantyniv airbase in Khmelnytskyi oblast, where Su-24 are deployed. Locals reported about explosions in Zhytomyr and Khmelnytskyi oblasts. 

I heard distant, but heavy explosion, some accounts write this was Kinzhal shooting down, but no confirmation yet

[Sekai]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

and one ballistic missile in unknown direction from Belarus

uh oh, two can play this game. How will Ukraine respond? Cheeky storm-shadow into the base camp of Wagner?

Edited August 5, 2023 by Sekai

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Astrophel]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Ukraine under missile attack again. Four Kalibrs were launched from submarine. Since 30-40 minutes three launches of unknown number of Kinzhals. Additionally one or two ballistic missiles on Zaporizhzhia city and one ballistic missile in unknown direction from Belarus. 

Reportedly most of launched missiles were directed on Starikostiantyniv airbase in Khmelnytskyi oblast, where Su-24 are deployed. Locals reported about explosions in Zhytomyr and Khmelnytskyi oblasts. 

I heard distant, but heavy explosion, some accounts write this was Kinzhal shooting down, but no confirmation yet

Hopefully Ukraine will have moved any assets ahead of time.  After all, these attacks are deliberate considered messages rather than blind aggression.  The likely russian response will have been anticipated.

[Vanir Ausf B]

Interview with an unnamed Lt Col. in Ukraine's air defense command. Some interesting bits.

• Last December, prior to the arrival of Patriot missile batteries, the Ukrainians were considering the evacuation of Kyiv.
• Recent Russian Ka-52 loses are likely from British ASRAAM fired from trucks.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-bombers-us-patriot-surface-to-air-missiles-ukraine-dh6x8vcgn