How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Kraft said:

I just found out Tikhiy, the hero who shot and killed 7 Russian Scum storming their position on the road of life to Bakhmut in this GoPro video has lost his life, together with Zheka. Both from the Da Vinci Wolves of Honor Group.

 

This is brutal, just more proof that brave men day every day we screw around more brave men die.

30 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Is the Chonhar bridge down?

Just Ask Google.

This way? Nope

Or this way? Nopity nope nope

Adds 4-5 hours to nay journey that took the Chonhar bridge and obviously makes the Amiansk route more clogged.

This however, is excellent news, and brilliant bit of OSINT.

 

Edited July 31, 2023 by dan/california

[danfrodo]

2 hours ago, Kraft said:

I just found out Tikhiy, the hero who shot and killed 7 Russian Scum storming their position on the road of life to Bakhmut in this unbelievable GoPro video has lost his life, together with Zheka. Both from the Da Vinci Wolves of Honor Group.

 

So awful.  No one is a statistic.  Good lord, please let there be a major breakthrough and a cascading collapse of the RU army in UKR, featuring mutinies spreading like a zombie plague, leading to king of the zombies in moscow swinging from a lamp post.  

And the captured MAX10 & CV90 are nice show pieces for the murderers but hopefully folks (outside this forum) won't do the usual OMG-pants wetting over this.  There's lots more of those IFVs that are fully effective and ready to go.  I just hope the crews were OK.  Some posts today & recently reminded us that a lost vehicle isn't the whole story -- was the crew OK?  Was the mission completed?  These two vehicles probably mean mission not completed but what if UKR got enough intel during the loss such that the next attack is a big success?  

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

No one is a statistic

Stop being so human ... 

A Single Death Is a Tragedy; A Million Deaths Is a Statistic

- Josef (the butcher) Stalin

And I am starting to think my own government is leaning in that direction. Sad. Not because they are sinful people doing their individual jobs out of the limelight. But because circumstances are dragging them collectively to that hardened position. Think of the famous scenes and music  from The Wall. 

[Fenris]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Is the Chonhar bridge down?

Just Ask Google.

This way? Nope

Or this way? Nopity nope nope

Adds 4-5 hours to nay journey that took the Chonhar bridge and obviously makes the Amiansk route more clogged.

 

From the last ISW update:

Quote

The Ukrainian Armed Forces announced on July 29 that Ukrainian forces successfully struck the Chonhar bridge on the M-18 (Dzhankoi-Melitopol) highway between occupied Crimea and occupied Kherson Oblast.

https://www.facebook.com/AFUkraine/posts/pfbid031yerC9QAoA54turHzk1SQRFNohozkdthhKjukKrtQqFiamMWJo6qW9jbNeH6ysUHl

[kevinkin]

Is the Ukrainian use of S-200s as ground to ground weapons terror? I don't blame them at all. But there is that dumb thing called the "moral high ground" that prevents pretty good cultures from defeating very evil ones just because liberal democracies don't want get their hands dirty. BTW, a few of those themes are in the Oppenheimer movie. You just have to pay attention. Anyway, embrace the inaccuracy of the S-200. If Ukraine needs to pull these out the US needs to take hard look in the mirror. 

[Carolus]

2 hours ago, Fenris said:

 

From the last ISW update:

https://www.facebook.com/AFUkraine/posts/pfbid031yerC9QAoA54turHzk1SQRFNohozkdthhKjukKrtQqFiamMWJo6qW9jbNeH6ysUHl

It is not unlikely that Russians will deploy a pontoon bridge or similar near the struck bridge, which would not show up on Google.

The other bridge that was struck a while ago on the neck connecting Crimea seemed to have readily available bridging nearby.

[womble]

41 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Is the Ukrainian use of S-200s as ground to ground weapons terror? I don't blame them at all. But there is that dumb thing called the "moral high ground" that prevents pretty good cultures from defeating very evil ones just because liberal democracies don't want get their hands dirty. BTW, a few of those themes are in the Oppenheimer movie. You just have to pay attention. Anyway, embrace the inaccuracy of the S-200. If Ukraine needs to pull these out the US needs to take hard look in the mirror. 

It depends entirely on what they're used to (try and) hit. Same as any other weapon. If the target's in civilian areas (but still legit in and of itself), then the CEP of the strike system orter be smaller than the target. I'm guessing the S-200 isn't incredibly precise, so you probably shouldn't lob 'em at small targets with potential collateral damage right nearby.

[cesmonkey]

Translation of the below:
 

Quote

Chongar Railway Bridge connecting Crimea and Zaporizhia Oblast on July 24 and 30. There are reports that it was destroyed by Ukrainian forces. It seems that the red frame part is damaged. A white vehicle is visible in the north.

 

[Teufel]

8 hours ago, dan/california said:

This is brutal, just more proof that brave men day every day we screw around more brave men die.

This is so painful to watch! Big Boys don’t cry they say, f*ck that!

Grown men do cry and this made me shed tears like a child.

Edit: Time to tag those opposing support for Ukraine on Twitter and other social platforms. We elected them to govern this country in the best interests for us the citizens.

Not expecting any of them to actually care but this begs the question; do Ukrainian children don’t have the rights to enjoy the same childhood as our own?!

Post Scriptum! Please, spare me any responses about World hunger, escalation, poverty, famine, and suffering elsewhere. The actions of voting against proposed support for Ukraine is a direct responsibility for this type of reality in Ukraine.

Edited July 31, 2023 by Teufel

[Butschi]

12 hours ago, danfrodo said:

While time is on UKR's side in most ways, a longer war does open up the possibility of URK's war going sideways somehow.  What if more Orban's get elected, for example?

Not to provoke anyone with this statement but I currently see Russia winning.

Why? I'm not a Putin troll, I don't believe in the Russian Master Plan™ that has some 1 mio men waiting behind the Ural equipped with T-14 or similar nonsense. I also don't think the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed because they lost a few Leopards and aren't yet on the way to Moscow. (Edit: Oh, and of course, there is no infinite pool of bodies Russia can throw at Ukraine!) I see that the war itself isn't really going well for Russia.

It seems to me, though, yeah weird thought in one of the largest conventional wars of the last decades, that this conflict has become kind of asymmetrical in nature. Because, like in guerilla warfare, currently Russia wins by not losing while Ukraine loses by not winning.

As long as Russia somehow manages to stay in the war they win. And "stay in the war" could even mean Ukraine regained all their territory but the Russian army still remains a threat and there is no formal peace treaty. A smoldering or even a frozen conflict still means no NATO and/or EU membership for Ukraine. It also means no or reduced foreign investments to rebuild Ukraine. And I think (but maybe the experts can chime in) that is enough for the current regime to sell the ongoing war to the general population. Keeping the Nazis out of NATO or something. The part of the Russians that's not just apathetic seems to actually support the war. Sure, hard to tell in Russia but even many "Spätaussiedler" (people from Russia with German roots) who immigrated to Germany and other Russian immigrants here seem to be on board with that way of thinking.

On the other hand, we all think that Western support for Ukraine will eventually shrink especially if we don't see significant progress. There is also the uncertainty of the upcoming US presidential election. So while militarily time is on Ukraines side for now, overall I think Ukraine is running against the clock.

So, anything short of a regime change or a total collapse of the Russian army that makes it absolutely clear that Russia won't be a threat for the next one or two decades has the potential to eventually lead to a Russian "victory". Sure, Putin seems to have lost power but there is no guarantee that a successor would stop the war. We are also seeing cracks in the Russian armed forces but given that we've been speculating on a collapse soon™ for around a year now, that seems a bit too optimistic, too. We have also discussed direct Western interventions and (generally) come to the conclusion that this isn't going to happen for various reasons.

Sorry for this bleak outlook. You may now start throwing stones. Seriously, though, what am I missing?

Edited July 31, 2023 by Butschi

[beardiebloke]

24 minutes ago, Butschi said:

And "stay in the war" could even mean Ukraine regained all their territory but the Russian army still remains a threat and there is no formal peace treaty.

This broadens the criteria for "Russia winning" a great deal.  Anything short of Russia not comprehensively losing and starting to behave itself could be considered "Russia winning".  As for time running out, it appears more likely if you extrapolate the speed of the counteroffensive based on what we've seen in the last few weeks/months, but far less likely if you anticipate a slow-then-quick bankruptcy style decline it RU's capabilities.  I cautiously favour the latter.

If this does turn into a Korean style stalemate, then it will be relative stability that matters.  It would suck but life could go on in relative peace.

[Hapless]

For a different perspective:

If the USA invaded Mexcio to enact regime change and instead suffered a string of embarrassing defeats, lost an aircraft carrier, was forced to rely heavily on Blackwater only for them to attempt a coup and had lost it's military reputation along with international influence, narrative control and huge numbers of men and military hardware...

I don't think anyone would think the US was winning because they were squatting in the northern half of Chihuahua. They've still lost, incurring significant all-spectrum damage in the process.

Of course, Mexico might be unable to regain it's international borders and a frozen conflict might develop... but that isn't going to make the US less crippled and Mexico less undefeated.

Edited July 31, 2023 by Hapless

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

Not to provoke anyone with this statement but I currently see Russia winning.

Why? I'm not a Putin troll, I don't believe in the Russian Master Plan™ that has some 1 mio men waiting behind the Ural equipped with T-14 or similar nonsense. I also don't think the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed because they lost a few Leopards and aren't yet on the way to Moscow. (Edit: Oh, and of course, there is no infinite pool of bodies Russia can throw at Ukraine!) I see that the war itself isn't really going well for Russia.

It seems to me, though, yeah weird thought in one of the largest conventional wars of the last decades, that this conflict has become kind of asymmetrical in nature. Because, like in guerilla warfare, currently Russia wins by not losing while Ukraine loses by not winning.

As long as Russia somehow manages to stay in the war they win. And "stay in the war" could even mean Ukraine regained all their territory but the Russian army still remains a threat and there is no formal peace treaty. A smoldering or even a frozen conflict still means no NATO and/or EU membership for Ukraine. It also means no or reduced foreign investments to rebuild Ukraine. And I think (but maybe the experts can chime in) that is enough for the current regime to sell the ongoing war to the general population. Keeping the Nazis out of NATO or something. The part of the Russians that's not just apathetic seems to actually support the war. Sure, hard to tell in Russia but even many "Spätaussiedler" (people from Russia with German roots) who immigrated to Germany and other Russian immigrants here seem to be on board with that way of thinking.

On the other hand, we all think that Western support for Ukraine will eventually shrink especially if we don't see significant progress. There is also the uncertainty of the upcoming US presidential election. So while militarily time is on Ukraines side for now, overall I think Ukraine is running against the clock.

So, anything short of a regime change or a total collapse of the Russian army that makes it absolutely clear that Russia won't be a threat for the next one or two decades has the potential to eventually lead to a Russian "victory". Sure, Putin seems to have lost power but there is no guarantee that a successor would stop the war. We are also seeing cracks in the Russian armed forces but given that we've been speculating on a collapse soon™ for around a year now, that seems a bit too optimistic, too. We have also discussed direct Western interventions and (generally) come to the conclusion that this isn't going to happen for various reasons.

Sorry for this bleak outlook. You may now start throwing stones. Seriously, though, what am I missing?

Not going to throw stones, however, this is what happens when one adopts an extreme definition of “winning”.  It has been a problem going way back to last summer.  To even suggest a half measure of victory for Ukraine was to admit defeat…which is simply not true.  

For some, yes even on this board, victory for Ukraine is 1) regaining every inch of the pre-2014 borders, 2) a completely defeated and dismantled Russian state and 3) regional security for Ukraine from now until the end of time.  I can clearly recall this narrative being promoted here and used as justification as to why we need to give the UA every weapon under creation yesterday.

Well 1) how realistic are these criteria given realities of modern warfare?  2) items #2 and #3 on that list are in strategic tension with each other? And 3) so if Ukraine (or the West for that matter) fail to achieve these goals, does that equal Ukrainian defeat?

Grown ups do not talk in terms of absolutes.  They talk in terms of negotiation.  How can Ukraine negotiate the best outcome it can out of this war?  As to victory, Ukraine is already there because the actual core objective of remaining an independent state has been met.  The rest is negotiation; violent and bloody negotiations.

Everyone wants Ukraine to succeed as much as possible but “what winning looks like” is a moving target.  If the UA cannot break the strategic corridor and set conditions for retaking the Crimea then this conflict will likely freeze.  Ok, so what?  How does Ukraine still achieve its strategic objectives if this happens?  

[Teufel]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

Sorry for this bleak outlook. You may now start throwing stones. Seriously, though, what am I missing?

There is nothing in your statements and observations that you need to apologize for. Exactly why we are here for. To share assumptions, opinions and hopefully facts without bullsh*t. We can disagree with one and other, we don’t necessarily need to like the counterparts arguments or opinions. Had this discussion already about listening to what Russians say, stand by the opinion that we don’t need to agree with one and other but proactively listen we must. We can’t end up in “group think” or echo chambers of opinions, then we are for real in trouble.

With that being said, already expressed this several times but with the stubbornness of a mule again. Russian society has never enjoyed democracy or freedom of choice. It goes all the way back to the Tsars and feudalism. To point you in other example that change indeed is possible look at Japan. Going from still feudal society in 1867 with shoguns and samurai to uphold order and control the population. Their Meiji restoration and subsequent modernization of Japan was forced upon them. See the fantastic book “Wealth and Poverty of Nations” for historical reference from across the World of nations either going downwards to poverty or upwards to prosperity, from the same starting conditions.

Russian and Russians should not be seen from western perspectives but their own. It’s like asking why don’t the Middle East want democracy? Why did the same attempts fail in Afghanistan? Because the country on group level lives in poverty, suffer from lack of education,  and all other factors that make people easily manipulated. All of us here have received education for at least 8-10 years, some attended college, of course we see what the Russians can’t see.

Those fighting in Ukraine are almost exclusively from low income and low education regions of Russia. Not many from Moscow, St. Petersburg and more educated and wealthy regions. Selling even defeat in Ukraine will not be difficult for Putin. “We fought heroically but we fought the entire Nato with all it’s military power! We must now prepare our nation for future threats of NATO and fight to regain what is rightfully ours!”. That’s it, Russia with or without Putin will always have the same structural problems as they always had.

Destroying systems such as the Russian goes through economics if you ask me. Auto critique here, yes very simplified but if history lends any guidance changes go through ruined economies, see ref above for great examples. Modern day examples are many but let’s stick with every communist system in Europe. Fascists in Venezuela and elsewhere. Those with some education and internet access see the Western World and admire it. Very long point but let’s summarize that Russian can only fall apart from external pressure. Their economy must collapse and those with actual power must be forced into substantial economic losses. Unemployment, inflation and lack of income comes with that and unrest follows.

For the West, if we are dumb enough to not stay in this until Russia is defeated. Either by external economic forces or militarily force into submission, well then we are in real trouble. Keep sounding like parrot but diplomatic efforts are interpreted as weakness from the Russian side. Any attempt to resolve this conflict with dialogue will come back to us in due time. Come from similar bullsh*t system behind the iron curtain like many others here. We ended up killing each other over idiots who did everything to stay in power. 30 years later the same frozen conflict, peace agreements or not, is boiling again.

Fighting in Ukraine must continue even if it takes years. I am in no position of power but I can share my experiences and views on this. Are Ukrainians running out of time, quite possibly yes! Are they asked to sacrifice their lives and nation for the free World with one arm tied behind their backs, yes they are! Will they prevail, I trust they will. Fighting for the existential survival of ones family is the highest possible reason to morale.

Don’t want to get too personal all over again, but from just my street we lost half of the men aged 15-60. Every single family lost sons, brothers and fathers. And in the end we lost by the so called “peace” that was forced from external parties when the tide finally turned after years of fighting. Understand that nobody wanted to allow the bloodlust built after years of losses to manifest itself.

Why am I bringing all that personal sh*t up? Because I’ve seen first hand what we now observe the Ukrainians suffer through. I’ve seen what externally imposed “peace agreements” bring. My parts of the World are rather anonymous in many ways, so nobody paid nor is paying attention. If we do the same to Ukraine as we did 30 years ago elsewhere - then we can all brace ourselves for very dangerous consequences. The conflict and bloodlust can not be suppressed by “peace agreements” or diplomatic efforts. For this to end, the Russian system must be destroyed by force and that’s the only thing Putin and other leaders like him understand.

Take this rant as noise from behind the curtain and leave the rest to those that know better. By all means, I don’t fear escalation. I fear de-escalation and lack of willingness to stand with Ukraine for how long it takes.

If you read this far, thank you and please do not hesitate to share your own story and reasoning.

Edited July 31, 2023 by Teufel

[Letter from Prague]

I share similarly bleak outlook. 

One thing that makes me optimistic is seeing new, Ukrainian made weapons. If Ukraine can build their own drones and missiles and scale that manufacturing up, they can actually outproduce Russia (which is sanctioned and unlike Ukraine not all that good at manufacturing high-tech stuff) and eventually turn all the tank, Iskander and whatever factories to dust.

(Who sows wind reaps ... beavers, apparently)

[Teufel]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Grown ups do not talk in terms of absolutes.  They talk in terms of negotiation.  How can Ukraine negotiate the best outcome it can out of this war?  As to victory, Ukraine is already there because the actual core objective of remaining an independent state has been met.  The rest is negotiation; violent and bloody negotiations.

Great to see input from you again!

No offense taken and I don’t mind being labeled anything. Don’t think what you said has any bearing of patronizing, so let’s not get into that.

What you offer is as I wrote in my own wall of text - the liberal perspective that everything can be solved if people talk to each other. Violence is of course far costlier than peaceful resolution of any conflict, war or not. But with all due respect, from experience I can’t agree with the liberal perspective. We are about to take up arms against each other again.

30 years passed and most of military age were not even born when peace agreement was signed. Their parents and families have passed on the stories of their sons, partners and fathers. Those that survived have fathered boys of their own, I included. We all share the stories with our own children, I don’t spare any details when they ask.

Not of things I done, seen or participated in but also not what others did to me. Doing so I try to be human and say that everyone is capable of resorting to violence if pushed far enough. Also add that violence is never justified against innocent individuals. Do however encourage retaliation and third party punishment, with violence if necessary. When they were younger we always said, always fight back. Win or lose. If you get proper beating, then I’ll beat whoever beat you up.

Can you have peace and dialogue with people of such mentality and experiences? Ukrainians are no different from us, even have roots on my fathers side from Ukraine - we are kin. Forcing peace on them as with us and results will not be different.

You may label me as childish or immature, I don’t mind. Auto critique here as I assume rather than ask - most probably you don’t have a clue about the pain that the Ukrainian people suffers. I don’t say that in patronizing terms. You just haven’t lived it, most of us have not so impossible to put into perspective. What such experiences do to people are different from individual to individual and I can only speak for myself.

Will this end in peace agreement? Of course it will! My fear is that all that will achieve is resentment and anger over unjustified violence not being punished. Third party punishment is actually field of research in evolutionary psychology, very interesting such that lends perspectives.

May not like or agree with my perspectives but I do hope that you and others listen proactively.

Edited July 31, 2023 by Teufel

[panzermartin]

Not sure who is winning at the moment....But for me Russia showed great tenacity and character when after the first months of  shocking losses, abysmal performance, units simply abandoning shining expensive equipment and an unrealistic plan of conquering Ukraine with 200k men and bad intellgence, managed to bite back and hold the line so far against practically the support of 40 NATO countries and a total western blackout on their economy. That was a blow that would break any country to pieces.

Russia was ridiculed, for its drunk tank drivers, the washing machine looters, the Moskva fiasco, the javelin cope cages, the dodgy weapons from the 50s and so on...Yet it now casually destroys Leo2s and Bradleys in perfect killing zones, has now the edge on drone warfare and Electronic warfare and its industry is working 24h round the clock fully adapting to the urgency of the situation. Russia has not commited yet the bulk of their 140 million population, people home are not much affected by the war and a good part of its losses are tens of thousands of convicts and poor minorities in contrast with Ukraine that is offering the core of their male population. More importantly, Russia enjoys a vast superiority in air support that is still important to dominate a battlefield and make a wider offensive succesfull. Ukraine seems better in ISR, precision and small infantry unit action but these alone cant dominate the front. Ukraine lacks the critical mass to push Russia out any time soon imo. And the western support coming in small waves and pieces ends up getting destroyed in small waves and pieces instead of decisevely altering the balance at once. 

 The next phase could be a full NATO intervention that Russia can't cope with, but I'm not sure whether this would be a positive escalation for anyone. 

 

[womble]

24 minutes ago, Teufel said:

What you offer is as I wrote in my own wall of text - the liberal perspective that everything can be solved if people talk to each other.

Way  to miss The Captain's point. You seem to have ignored the last part of his sentence

48 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

...violent and bloody negotiations.

A recurring tenet of The_Capt's treatises is that "War is negotiation". He's no bleeding-heart liberal who thinks this can be "talked out" round a table at this time. The whizz-bangs are doing the talking right now.

[Teufel]

To add constructive third party input.

 

[Bearstronaut]

Ukraine won the war when the Russians retreated from the Kyiv axis in April 2022. Not even the most deranged vatniks think that Russia taking Kyiv and imposing regime change is possible anymore. No matter what happens (excepting nuclear war) Ukraine will remain an independent state even if it isn't able to recover the annexed territories.

[Butschi]

3 hours ago, Hapless said:

For a different perspective:

If the USA invaded Mexcio to enact regime change and instead suffered a string of embarrassing defeats, lost an aircraft carrier, was forced to rely heavily on Blackwater only for them to attempt a coup and had lost it's military reputation along with international influence, narrative control and huge numbers of men and military hardware...

I don't think anyone would think the US was winning because they were squatting in the northern half of Chihuahua. They've still lost, incurring significant all-spectrum damage in the process.

Of course, Mexico might be unable to regain it's international borders and a frozen conflict might develop... but that isn't going to make the US less crippled and Mexico less undefeated.

Fair point. If we go by the initial Russian goal to take Kiev and install a Russia-friendly regime or even all out conquer Ukraine then there is no way this a Russian victory whatsoever.

I think where the analogy falls short is the ability to shift goals. The US government would not be able to blame the defeat on a larger military alliance that supported Mexico and which was the true enemy to start with. It wouldn't be able to argue that the whole point of the regime change was to keep Mexico out of that other military alliance. Also, US society is way less politically apathetic and way more diverse and independent in its political views (I think?). There is also the matter of free press and such that would tear apart any government for such a major f*ckup.

But yeah, my definitions of victory and defeat were possibly oversimplified here...

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Not going to throw stones, however, this is what happens when one adopts an extreme definition of “winning”.  It has been a problem going way back to last summer.  To even suggest a half measure of victory for Ukraine was to admit defeat…which is simply not true.  

... as also the The_Capt seems to suggest. Or possibly failure on my side to communicate what I meant. I did not mean to suggest that for Ukraine to win it takes a total victory (CM terms or otherwise... btw. CM also doesn't view victory and defeat in absolute terms). I also very deliberately did not suggest any solutions to this conundrum, I'm merely stating my observations. (Edit: I don't want this to be interpreted as me suggesting that therefore Russia needs to be destroyed or we have to do everything in order to utterly defeat the RA, possibly by NATO intervention. I don't have a solution, one way or the other)

Ok, let me attempt to rephrase: In order have a positive outlook for Ukraine this conflict has to end. Because without that, as I said, no NATO and EU membership, i.e. no/small security and no/slow rebuilding. Maybe my assumptions here are wrong.

As The_Capt pointed the end of this conflict is a matter of negotiations. However, as long as Russia is able to stay "in the game" it can refuse to negotiate. And this is what I meant: As long as the Russian regime has an army that can still dispute Ukrainian territory (even if it is thrown out of it), and manages to not get get toppled by a different sort of government that is able and willing to negotiate, and as long as "the" people seem to support the war, it is hard to imagine that Russia can be forced to negotiate and so Ukraine won't have a positive outlook. I think that is not the same as a maximalist claim that Ukraine can only win / has to win by utterly defeating / destroying Russia.

Now, of course Russia doesn't have infinite resources so can't stay in the war indefinitely. But neither has Ukraine. I may be wrong about Western support. After all,  we managed to stay in Afghanistan for 20 years and many of us would struggle to find that country on a map - as compared to "right next to the EU/NATO border". But there are many unknowns and my personal guess is that governments currently face enough problems of their own that they can't sell support for Ukraine for years on a scale we are seeing right now.

I don't know. I'll be happy to be proven wrong.

Edited July 31, 2023 by Butschi

[Butschi]

2 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

Ukraine won the war when the Russians retreated from the Kyiv axis in April 2022. Not even the most deranged vatniks think that Russia taking Kyiv and imposing regime change is possible anymore. No matter what happens (excepting nuclear war) Ukraine will remain an independent state even if it isn't able to recover the annexed territories.

True but that wasn't my point. Sorry that I didn't manage to really convey that. Ukraine will remain an independent state and of course that is a victory in itself.

Now, that may be a difference in philosophy, I know people over in the US value freedom probably above everything else which is, I think, a bit more nuanced in (western) Europe.

An independent Ukraine can still be (in a sense) isolated, i.e. outside of any alliances for security, both militarily and economically, and in a ruined state.

And whether you call that victory or defeat, it would still be bad for Ukraine and possibly good for the Putin regime.

[Splinty]

3 minutes ago, Butschi said:

True but that wasn't my point. Sorry that I didn't manage to really convey that. Ukraine will remain an independent state and of course that is a victory in itself.

Now, that may be a difference in philosophy, I know people over in the US value freedom probably above everything else which is, I think, a bit more nuanced in (western) Europe.

An independent Ukraine can still be (in a sense) isolated, i.e. outside of any alliances for security, both militarily and economically, and in a ruined state.

And whether you call that victory or defeat, it would still be bad for Ukraine and possibly good for the Putin regime.

Whatever happens, Ukraine will not be a ruined state. There are hundreds of Western contractors waiting for this war to end so they can help rebuild the country. 

[cesmonkey]

15 minutes ago, Butschi said:

And whether you call that victory or defeat, it would still be bad for Ukraine and possibly good for the Putin regime.

How about defining victory or defeat somewhat narrowly as whether Putin's Russia will be more likely or less likely in the future to move against its neighbors or intervene where it has no right to do so?

A second condition might be whether China or other aggressive nations might also behave this way.

[Butschi]

17 minutes ago, Splinty said:

Whatever happens, Ukraine will not be a ruined state. There are hundreds of Western contractors waiting for this war to end so they can help rebuild the country. 

But that is the point, the war has to actually have ended for that to happen, right? Sure there will always be people/companies/organizations willing to invest money but a true large scale rebuilding will only happen once a stable peace is established not just some frozen conflict.

Edited July 31, 2023 by Butschi