How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

33 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

According to Mashovets, Bakhmut - Chasiv Yar - Kostianntynivka -Druzhkivka area falling was a neccesary term for Russian offensive on Siversk - Bilohorivka direction  in order to secure the area before general offensive to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk - main cities of Ukraine-controlled Donbas. Russian winter offensive on Vuhledar was a piece of this operation. In case of success, Russians would be advance to Pokrovsk, threatening the southern flank and even rear of Sloviansk-Kramatorsk group. So, Bakhmut as a city itself hadn't enough strategic sense, but in complex all Bakmhut direction was a gate to unocuppied Donbas.     

Thanks, but I understand why it was important to RU.  I am confused as to why it matters to UKR, now.  Yes, less entrenched and less mined, so easier.  Yes, some propaganda win.  I was just saying I would love to know the math that UKR is using to justify offensive operations around Bakhmut when it won't change the war on its own like landbridge would.

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, kraze said:

The guy was fighting in this war since 2014. That photo isn't just him posing with an RPK.

They just give some of their more 'media-friendly' soldiers a press ID and they suddenly get to be "journalists".

Doesn't matter what he did in the past, only what he was doing currently.  If he was walking around with an RPK and a helmet that says PRESS, then he's by definition a combatant.  But if he is unarmed with PRESS on his helmet, theoretically he is a journalist.

Anyway, my previous statement is accurate.  He is not a journalist by international standards even if he was unarmed at the time he was killed.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Result of today's long-range strike on Crimea. Russian milblogger Rybar claimed Russian AD/EW destroyed/supressed 11 kamikadze-drones, but all four Storm Shadows hit own targets. Three missiles hit ammo dump on Vesele (rus. Vesyoloye) airfield - this is another inactive Black Sea Fleet airfield in 15 km SW from Dzhankoy. One missile hit repair base in Novostepove (rus. Novostepnoye) village in 4 km south from Dzankoy

Video of explosion probably on Vesele airfield. ATESh resistans claimed a stockpile of Onix missiles were destroyed, but this of course can't be verified.

 Also result of strike on Moscow. Reportedly office center in use of some cyber center of GU GSh (former GRU), small building belongs to MoD music band. 

UKR "Bober" kamikadze-drone over Moscow. Interesting that in 300 m is MoD building situates with Pantsyr S1 on the roof, but it couldn't intercept UKR drone, probably the crew just slept. Also in this area there are elite appartaments of many Russian top-officials and Duma deputies.

 

[Battlefront.com]

41 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

According to Mashovets, Bakhmut - Chasiv Yar - Kostianntynivka -Druzhkivka area falling was a neccesary term for Russian offensive on Siversk - Bilohorivka direction  in order to secure the area before general offensive to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk - main cities of Ukraine-controlled Donbas. Russian winter offensive on Vuhledar was a piece of this operation. In case of success, Russians would be advance to Pokrovsk, threatening the southern flank and even rear of Sloviansk-Kramatorsk group. So, Bakhmut as a city itself hadn't enough strategic sense, but in complex all Bakmhut direction was a gate to unocuppied Donbas.     

For sure that is correct, but only in theory.  It is about as realistic for Russia as saying that after Kramatorsk they would have a position for Dnipro, and after that Lviv, then onto Warsaw

Even if Russia's winter offensive produced some results, the chances of them being able to exploit them were about zero.  It's good for Ukraine to keep those positions or regain them, but strategically it makes no difference for either side.

Steve

[holoween]

9 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Leopard 2A6 being hit by Lancet- according to Wolski, white cloud means fire suppression systems started working, which means that explosion reached crew commpartment, later corroborated by black smoke.

Generally in last month Russians ramped up their drone warfare very visibly, both in quality and quantity. Lancet attacks are conducted deeper within UA-controlled territory and are more precise. Muscovite superiority in EW warfare also started to kick in, according to several military observers here- Ukrainians lack modern jamming systems and AA sets in numbers necessary to counter it. Yesterday new videos of UA SP artillery being destroyed during ammo loading and additional tanks also surfaced.

 

That white smoke is the smoke launcher being hit. The A6 doesnt have a fire supression system in the crew compartment.

The hit also apears to have hit the electronics room if anything so not even technically in the crew compartment.

The dark smoke also seems to come from the electronics or the storage boxes.

So even assuming this hit breached the armour this is at worst a repair job with unharmed crew.

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

"Episode Notes:
On this episode of the Russia Contingency, Mike and Rob continue their conversation about their recent research trip to Ukraine. This conversation focused on the battle for Bakhmut, the level of attrition Russian forces have faced holding the city, and talked about the need to provide Ukraine with more man-portable systems.

The Russia Contingency is a bi-weekly podcast featuring an in-depth analysis of Russia's military power and the war in Ukraine."

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, holoween said:

That white smoke is the smoke launcher being hit. The A6 doesnt have a fire supression system in the crew compartment.

The hit also apears to have hit the electronics room if anything so not even technically in the crew compartment.

The dark smoke also seems to come from the electronics or the storage boxes.

So even assuming this hit breached the armour this is at worst a repair job with unharmed crew.

Thanks for that Holoween.  I always feel terrible for any Ukrainian casualty and good to know it looks like this crew was probably safe. 

[Haiduk]

21 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

For sure that is correct, but only in theory.  It is about as realistic for Russia as saying that after Kramatorsk they would have a position for Dnipro, and after that Lviv, then onto Warsaw

Even if Russia's winter offensive produced some results, the chances of them being able to exploit them were about zero.  It's good for Ukraine to keep those positions or regain them, but strategically it makes no difference for either side.

Steve

Many voices both on the West and among Ukrianian politics and some part of society demanded to stop bloodshed in Bakhmut and withdraw troops to avoid big losses. And as if even Zaluzhnyi adviced to General Staff to withdraw (but all this only rumors). We had real dilemma - to continue fighting with the enemy with his "smart meat-waves" and artillery advantage and suffer a losses or to withdraw and soon to get the same on Kostianntynivka - Druzhkivla line with very possible Siversk section falling and then - huge punch to moral of society. Ukrainian society has very nervous reaction even on little failures on frontline, so this is also important factor. I try do not read most comments in twitter now - after strikes on Odesa, slow offensive and Russian advance on Kupiansk direction we have many posts "we are losing the war, negotiations will be soon, Zelenskiy is a traitor bla-bla-bla". And not all these comments come from Russisan PsyOps centers. 

Edited July 24, 2023 by Haiduk

[danfrodo]

13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Many voices both on the West and among Ukrianian politics and some part of society demanded to stop bloodshed in Bakhmut and withdraw troops to avoid big losses. And as if even Zaluzhnyi adviced to General Staff to withdraw (but all this only rumors). We had real dilemma - to continue fighting with the enemy with his "smart meat-waves" and artillery advantage and suffer a losses or to withdraw and soon to get the same on Kostianntynivka - Druzhkivla line with very possible Siversk section falling and then - huge punch to moral of society. Ukrainian society has very nervous reaction even on little failures on frontline, so this is also important factor. I try do not read most comments in twitter now - after strikes on Odesa, slow offensive and Russian advance on Kupiansk direction we have many posts "we are losing the war, negotiations will be soon, Zelenskiy is a traitor bla-bla-bla". And not all these comments come from Russisan PsyOps centers. 

Turns out UKR strategy was very sound -- caused huge losses in RU resources at relatively low cost (as callous as that sounds).  So if now UKR is attacking in this same region, I am assuming the math is working for them. 

[Haiduk]

14 hours ago, Taranis said:

@Haiduk Do you have any information about the composition of the "100,000" Russian soldiers who would launch a counter-attack in the north? In Karmazynivska area.

It seems 3rd MRD is in the area and probably 4th GTD in the assembly area ?

I think the composition of the force could be a good indicator of the russian objectives.

I just put most of Mashovets writings on this map.

According to him Russian group on Kupiansk direction divided on two groupments - northern, which will advance on Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi and southern, which already started own offensive to Borova town. Each groupment in own turn has per two subgroups. The border of responsibility of both groups is probably along the road Svatove - Borova

Main goal of southern group - to reach Borova and in this way to cutt off northern group of UKR forces and then to smash them with nortehrn group attack from east and southern group attack from south to north along Oskil river. Their objectives - not only capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi (and maybe Kupiansk on right bank of Oskil), but completely eliminate UKR troops on left bank of Oskil. Now southern group is trying to acomplish nearest task - to come on the line Pershotravneve - Iziumske (vertical red dotted line)

Southern group approx since 17th of July could push off UKR forces of 66th mech.brigade from Zherebets river oppose to Kovalivka - Karmazynivka villages line and established there bridgehead. Using huge advantage in artillery and especially in MLRS, they for three last days significantly expanded this bridgehead up to 5 x 4 km area. Soldiers say, Russian MLRS fire even at small size units like half-squad. To stop this breakthrough, UKR command was forced to send rerverves. Now situation there is unknown. Against us here are 423rd MRR of 4th GTD and elements of 15th MRBr and 30th MRBr 

Also in interests of southern group two battalions of 21st motor-rifle brigade of Lyman groupment are operating. They try to attack on Makiivka, but without success. 

Between groups "borderline" Russians threw into the battle two units of reserves, keeping near Miluvatka (my bug on map) - 12th and 13th tank regiments of 4th GTD are in the battle on Dzherelne - Raihorodka line, but without significant gains.

Norhern groupment makes probe actions in Novoselivske area. All their success for now - they pushed off UKR troops about on 1 km and again captured railway stattion between Novoselivske and Kuzemivka. 

Mashovets also put intersting question - why Russians HQ have started this offensive now? Either they are trying to force UKR command move reserves from south here or they are already confident that UKR offensive on the south ALREADY failed. And from answer will be depend many things.

 

Edited July 24, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Probably Russian soldiers of 83rd air-assault brigade in bad situation near Klishchiivka

 

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

I just put most of Mashovets writings on this map.

According to him Russian group on Kupiansk direction divided on two groupments - northern, which will advance on Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi and southern, which already started own offensive to Borova town. Each groupment in own turn has per two subgroups. The border of responsibility of both groups is probably along the road Svatove - Borova

Main goal of southern group - to reach Borova and in this way to cutt off northern group of UKR forces and then to smash them with nortehrn group attack from east and southern group attack from south to north along Oskil river. Their objectives - not only capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi (and maybe Kupiansk on right bank of Oskil), but completely eliminate UKR troops on left bank of Oskil. Now southern group is trying to acomplish nearest task - to come on the line Pershotravneve - Iziumske (vertical red dotted line)

Southern group approx since 17th of July could push off UKR forces of 66th mech.brigade from Zherebets river oppose to Kovalivka - Karmazynivka villages line and established there bridgehead. Using huge advantage in artillery and especially in MLRS, they for three last days significantly expanded this bridgehead up to 5 x 4 km area. Soldiers say, Russian MLRS fire even at small size units like half-squad. To stop this breakthrough, UKR command was forced to send rerverves. Now situation there is unknown. Against us here are 423rd MRR of 4th GTD and elements of 15th MRBr and 30th MRBr 

Also in interests of southern group two battalions of 21st motor-rifle brigade of Lyman groupment are operating. They try to attack on Makiivka, but without success. 

Between groups "borderline" Russians threw into the battle two units of reserves, keeping near Miluvatka (my bug on map) - 12th and 13th tank regiments of 4th GTD are in the battle on Dzherelne - Raihorodka line, but without significant gains.

Norhern groupment makes probe actions in Novoselivske area. All their success for now - they pushed off UKR troops about on 1 km and again captured railway stattion between Novoselivske and Kuzemivka. 

Mashovets also put intersting question - why Russians HQ have started this offensive now? Either they are trying to force UKR command move reserves from south here or they are already confident that UKR offensive on the south ALREADY failed. And from answer will be depend many things.

 

RU has MLRS in heavy numbers here?  They must either have a lot more than we thought or they feel confident about the south w/o these resources.  Seems like this is serious and will actually drain some UKR reserves.  Most unfortunate.

But maybe RU will end up paying dearly for this distraction if forces in the south crack and there's not enough support to stop the breakthrough.  I guess we just keep hoping.

[danfrodo]

adding this bit on tankies, just in case you forgot how awful they are:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/7/24/2183098/-Ukraine-Update-Tankies-claim-to-want-peace-as-they-advocate-for-Putin-s-war-aims

Includes latest tankie idiocy from RFK jr.  Just a week after he said covid was engineered to be less deadly to chinese and jews.  (yes, he actually said this, on the record).   He's definitely someone we should go to for sound judgement, after all, he's the one that alerted us to this merging of these notorious super-villain groups.

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

RU has MLRS in heavy numbers here?  They must either have a lot more than we thought or they feel confident about the south w/o these resources.  Seems like this is serious and will actually drain some UKR reserves.  Most unfortunate.

But maybe RU will end up paying dearly for this distraction if forces in the south crack and there's not enough support to stop the breakthrough.  I guess we just keep hoping.

And remember That Ukraine , and the AFU general staff in particular have lasted about 515 days longer than they were supposed to in this war. They get the benefit of the doubt about the quality of their planning.

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Many voices both on the West and among Ukrianian politics and some part of society demanded to stop bloodshed in Bakhmut and withdraw troops to avoid big losses. And as if even Zaluzhnyi adviced to General Staff to withdraw (but all this only rumors). We had real dilemma - to continue fighting with the enemy with his "smart meat-waves" and artillery advantage and suffer a losses or to withdraw and soon to get the same on Kostianntynivka - Druzhkivla line with very possible Siversk section falling and then - huge punch to moral of society. Ukrainian society has very nervous reaction even on little failures on frontline, so this is also important factor. I try do not read most comments in twitter now - after strikes on Odesa, slow offensive and Russian advance on Kupiansk direction we have many posts "we are losing the war, negotiations will be soon, Zelenskiy is a traitor bla-bla-bla". And not all these comments come from Russisan PsyOps centers. 

Oh, I understand this all and I believe that fighting for Bakhmut was the correct decision, militarily and otherwise.  However, there was no military value for Russia in taking it because it lacks the resources and capabilities of doing anything with it.  Which we have clearly saw play out this winter.

The fighting going on in Luhansk is similar.  It is possible that they will gain some ground, maybe even significant ground, because Ukraine is focused on the south.  But what good does this do Russia?  It won't bring them closer to their stated goals of full control of Luhansk and Donetsk.  It won't end the war either.  What it is most likely going to do is wreck a lot of Russian combat power that could have been used in the south. 

Even if Russia thinks the Ukrainian counter offensive has failed, they committed significant forces to the north before they could have known that for sure what was happening in the south.  Therefore, the moves in the north appear to be independent of whatever the south's status is.

Steve

[dan/california]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh, I understand this all and I believe that fighting for Bakhmut was the correct decision, militarily and otherwise.  However, there was no military value for Russia in taking it because it lacks the resources and capabilities of doing anything with it.  Which we have clearly saw play out this winter.

The fighting going on in Luhansk is similar.  It is possible that they will gain some ground, maybe even significant ground, because Ukraine is focused on the south.  But what good does this do Russia?  It won't bring them closer to their stated goals of full control of Luhansk and Donetsk.  It won't end the war either.  What it is most likely going to do is wreck a lot of Russian combat power that could have been used in the south. 

Even if Russia thinks the Ukrainian counter offensive has failed, they committed significant forces to the north before they could have known that for sure what was happening in the south.  Therefore, the moves in the north appear to be independent of whatever the south's status is.

Steve

I have a suspicion the the Russians are attempting something in Luhansk simply because their supply situation is better there. If these troops were setn to the south they would overburden a supply system that is already shaking under the heaviest deep attacks the Ukrainians have, a system that has a lot of failure points that are difficult to work around. The Kerch bridge is merely the most obvious. On the Luhansk  front a lot of that deep infrastructure is in Russia proper, and it is just more redundant.

Edited July 25, 2023 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

ISW has a special report on the counter offensive and lessons for Western decision makers:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine’s-sustained-counteroffensive-denying-russia’s-prolongation-war

Steve

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

ISW has a special report on the counter offensive and lessons for Western decision makers:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine’s-sustained-counteroffensive-denying-russia’s-prolongation-war

Steve

They said that perfectly. 

[Vet 0369]

On 7/24/2023 at 12:00 AM, kevinkin said:

Ok, I agree the nuke stuff is going nowhere. Maybe we can lighten the discussion up. Which war game (computer or board game) would best simulated the static combat we are observing in eastern Ukraine? And would those products shed light on the war and combat so we all can learn from past mistakes? I use Combat Mission and Command, but they are obvious choices. Sure many other gamers do as well. 

For “cardboard counters,”(board game) Advanced Squad Leader (ASL) is still able to simulate the combat environment of Ukraine with the exception of guided weapons and ISR. For computer, Combat Mission of course. It’s no surprise to me that CM is my computer pick since when I first started playing CMx1 in the very early 21st Century, I remarked to my opponent that I could see the ASL underpinnings in the CM1 gameplay. In fact it appears to me that some of the third party missions in CMx1 and CMx2 are actually repackaged original ASL scenarios with some minor changes.

[Jiggathebauce]

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-tank-armata-t-14-1814899

 

Newsweek with a nothing burger article about t-14 armata supposedly having inched towards the front last year, but with no real evidence of it's employment in combat

Edited July 25, 2023 by Jiggathebauce

[cesmonkey]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

They said that perfectly. 

Agreed. But whether or not the West will make the necessary investments to support and sustain Ukraine to not only contribute to a successful counter-offensive but help Ukraine to win back their territory for what still looks to be a very long war seems questionable.  

Putin may be very correct in thinking that Russia has longer staying power for this war of attrition, even if they do endure a higher causality ratio.

[Haiduk]

9 hours ago, danfrodo said:

RU has MLRS in heavy numbers here?

They concentrated six artillery brigades (army and corps level unit), including 45th high-power arty brigade (203 mm 2S7) of Western military district in this sector, not counting divisional level artillery regments.

Edited July 25, 2023 by Haiduk

[kevinkin]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

They concentrated

Great maps you just posted. Thank you. 

[Haiduk]

Ammo dump in Makiivka city, Donetsk oblast was destroyed yesterday evening

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, kevinkin said:

Great maps you just posted. Thank you. 

Russian northern sub-group of northern groupment was activated too, I will redraw the map today after work.