How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Carolus]

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20230711IPR02613/meps-approve-plans-to-provide-more-ammunition-for-ukraine

Well, it's slowly coming together.

MEPs approved law which will support increase of ammo production capacity with 500 million €. Each company can apply to have up to 35% of their costs covered by this fund.

Not bad after an existential threat to western global order has been running amok for 15 months. /s

 

 

Edited July 13, 2023 by Carolus

[Carolus]

 

I have no idea if Ukrainians will produce them in numbers soon or at all, but if they do, since this is a homemade product, it would alleviate my worries about the safe Russian hinterland.

So I can only wish for a production target of 100 per month.

Edited July 13, 2023 by Carolus
added another graphic from the Twitter thread

[dan/california]

19 hours ago, dan/california said:

Russia had a written plan to kill the entire upper layer of Ukrainian society, and subject the rest to something at least as bad as what China has done in Xinjiang. I argue that these two situations are not actually comparable. indeed the fact the they are not comparable is why the Confederacy was able to accept defeat, however grudgingly.

 

4 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Disgusting, absolutely appalling. Civilians used as forced labor in active war zones, used as human shields, touture, executions, it's just insane, and it's policy, as Putin has signed laws expanding detention centers in both Ukraine and Russia and the ability to deport people from Ukraine into Russia.

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-prisons-civilians-torture-detainees-88b4abf2efbf383272eed9378be13c72

 

Going to quote myself just this once, getting conquered by the Russians is he!! on earth. That is why the Eastern European countries the have had the experience send arms to Ukraine in quantities that, by percentage of GDP, dwarf what everyone else is doing, they have been there. They still can't believe they got out, and they aren't going back.

[Tux]

1 hour ago, Carolus said:

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20230711IPR02613/meps-approve-plans-to-provide-more-ammunition-for-ukraine

Well, it's slowly coming together.

MEPs approved law which will support increase of ammo production capacity with 500 million €. Each company can apply to have up to 35% of their costs covered by this fund.

Not bad after an existential threat to western global order has been running amok for 15 months. /s

 

 

EU member states have been welcome to increase their own ammunition production rates at any time. If any of them have failed to do so because they were waiting for a subsidy from EU coffers to pay for it then that’s on them.

[Tux]

27 minutes ago, Carolus said:

 

I have no idea if Ukrainians will produce them in numbers soon or at all, but if they do, since this is a homemade product, it would alleviate my worries about the safe Russian hinterland.

So I can only wish for a production target of 100 per month.

The V1 vibes are ridiculously strong with this one.

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Tux said:

The V1 vibes are ridiculously strong with this one.

It is interesting that they discuss the morale effects of how loud it is.

[kluge]

29 minutes ago, dan/california said:

It is interesting that they discuss the morale effects of how loud it is.

It's not a bug, it's a feature

[Carolus]

57 minutes ago, Tux said:

EU member states have been welcome to increase their own ammunition production rates at any time. If any of them have failed to do so because they were waiting for a subsidy from EU coffers to pay for it then that’s on them.

You are, of course, right.

I believe the original idea was that with this shared fund, the production efforts can be better coordinated so that appropriste announts of facilties for the various needed types of shells for mortars and artillery will be produced and no accidental redundancy occurs, along with a big assessment of the ammo stocks of each EU member. But this coordination clause was scrapped from the bill which was eventually approved, because it was considered an overreach of the EU commission (the executive branch of the EU if you will).

These subsidies will also go directly to arms companies, not to member states.

Edited July 13, 2023 by Carolus
corrections

[Tux]

17 minutes ago, Carolus said:

You are, of course, right.

I believe the original idea was that with this shared fund, the production efforts can be better coordinated so that appropriste announts of facilties for the various needed types of shells for mortars and artillery will be produced and no accidental redundancy occurs, along with a big assessment of the ammo stocks of each EU member. But this coordination clause was scrapped from the bill which was eventually approved, because it was considered an overreach of the EU commission (the executive branch of the EU if you will).

These subsidies will also go directly to arms companies, not to member states.

Yes, true.  The wider coordination effort that they had to ditch sounds like a perfect example of the kind of thing we all wish countries would do but which even the EU can’t make them…

[Carolus]

 

A rough estimate of Russian tube artillery, which seems to be probaly the most important type of heavy weapon of the war.

https://telegra.ph/Stan-rosіjskoi-artilerіi-2023-Tverezij-analіz-07-13

Quote

The state of russian artillery as of today with 152mm and above:

• 800 2s19 Msta-S
• 300 2s4 Tulpan
• 400 2s5 Giatsint-S
• 300 2s7 Pion

1800 guns in total

Destroyed in the war so far (based on Oryx blog):

• 200 2s19 Msta-S
• 100 2s4 Tulpan
• 200 2s5 Giatsint-S
• 100 2s7 Pion

More years of war to destroy (at the same rate):

• Msta-S - 6 years
• 2s4 - 4.5 years
• 2s5 -S - 3 years
• 2s7 - 3 years

Based on this, Russia would still seem to have a lot of iron. 

 

Edited July 13, 2023 by Carolus
added the external link from the tweet

[billbindc]

38 minutes ago, Carolus said:

 

A rough estimate of Russian tube artillery, which seems to be probaly the most important type of heavy weapon of the war.

https://telegra.ph/Stan-rosіjskoi-artilerіi-2023-Tverezij-analіz-07-13

Based on this, Russia would still seem to have a lot of iron. 

 

Years of war to wear barrels to ineffectiveness would seem to be a better metric.

[sburke]

Everything is still going according to plan!

Top Putin Crony Curses Audience and Berates Colleague On-Air (yahoo.com)

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Carolus said:

 

A rough estimate of Russian tube artillery, which seems to be probaly the most important type of heavy weapon of the war.

https://telegra.ph/Stan-rosіjskoi-artilerіi-2023-Tverezij-analіz-07-13

Based on this, Russia would still seem to have a lot of iron. 

 

Then where is it?  Ukraine is pecking away and all we hear about are RA artillery shortfalls and tepid responses.   I have yet to see a single crushing indirect fire response from the RA side yet.  I can understand the UA keeping a lid on these sorts of things but the Russians are feeding every success story they can into the info-verse, they would not be shy about crowing on major c-fires successes...yet we do not see them.  Something in the RS fires system is off.

[kraze]

37 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Then where is it?  Ukraine is pecking away and all we hear about are RA artillery shortfalls and tepid responses.   I have yet to see a single crushing indirect fire response from the RA side yet.  I can understand the UA keeping a lid on these sorts of things but the Russians are feeding every success story they can into the info-verse, they would not be shy about crowing on major c-fires successes...yet we do not see them.  Something in the RS fires system is off.

I think it also has to do with the math.

Russia has occupied a lot of territories. Not only what is internationally recognized - but also quite a few along their borders.

Now take the total length of their borders, borders of occupied regions, optionally add a length of certain internal borders, and divide by arty units they have.

How much arty is there per 100 km? They have to make sure countries like Georgia and Azerbaijan don't get funny ideas and execute them.

Edited July 13, 2023 by kraze

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Carolus said:

Based on this, Russia would still seem to have a lot of iron. 

Unless they need 2x as much to do 1/2 as much as they need to   Seriously, absolute numbers like this mean nothing without figuring out how this relates to Russia's needs.

Someone would have to do a better analysis than this, but less than 2 guns per KM of front if *EVERY* gun was at the front right now doesn't sound like much.  Especially because that number no doubt includes systems that are pretty well shot out and are in need of refurbishment.

For a nation who seems disproportionally dependent upon artillery systems, this doesn't sound like they have nearly enough.

Steve

[EDIT - partial ninja by Kraze.  Yup, people do have to keep in mind that whatever Russia has on hand, a pretty good chunk of it isn't in Ukraine nor is ever likely to.  Therefore, when looking at Russian power in Ukraine, some not insignificant number needs to be subtracted right off the top]

[kimbosbread]

To add, it’s not just barrel wear, lack of pgms, coordination and ammunition shortages, but also trained crews. And maybe general maintenace on the SPGs; I assumed they are not maintained that well, especially after being out in the field for a year and a half.

Edited July 13, 2023 by kimbosbread

[kevinkin]

4 hours ago, Carolus said:

So I can only wish for a production target of 100 per month.

A People's cruise missile; a flying Volkswagen. Now we just have get Putin in front of the Peoples Court. If the thing has a battlefield benefit, maybe they can farm production out. I remember back in the early 90's the radio controlled a/c group I belonged to was thinking off the cuff about placing charges on larger model and if they could be used a terror weapons. Little did we know how things would evolve. 

 

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, kraze said:

I think it also has to do with the math.

Russia has occupied a lot of territories. Not only what is internationally recognized - but also quite a few along their borders.

Now take the total length of their borders, borders of occupied regions, optionally add a length of certain internal borders, and divide by arty units they have.

How much arty is there per 100 km? They have to make sure countries like Georgia and Azerbaijan don't get funny ideas and execute them.

1800 guns along an 800km frontage comes to about 225 guns per 100km.  Assuming they have them all serviceable and committed to the Ukrainian frontages.  I would bet it is maybe half the posted maximum so maybe 110 guns per 100kms.  Then there is the ammo and C4ISR.  If I recall they had something like 900 guns at Severodonetsk last summer, it was nuts and very near WW1 concentrations.  They do not have that now and massed static fires do not work as well on the defence.

The point being Russia may have a lot of iron but it takes a lot to make it effective.  The question remains as to whether the UA poking and prodding can turn into a major breakthrough?

[Artkin]

5 hours ago, Carolus said:

 

I have no idea if Ukrainians will produce them in numbers soon or at all, but if they do, since this is a homemade product, it would alleviate my worries about the safe Russian hinterland.

So I can only wish for a production target of 100 per month.

No moving parts? Pocket scramjet?

[Centurian52]

4 hours ago, kluge said:

It's not a bug, it's a feature

If it's cheap enough that it could be used interchangeably as either a decoy or a strike asset (or both simultaneously) then being noisy to humans and visible to radar really would be a feature. Save the stealth for the expensive stuff.

It puts the enemy air defenses in a real bind. If they ever stop shooting at these missiles then they become effective strike assets. If they do shoot at them then they are so cheap that it could be easy to saturate the enemy air defenses, or they become effective decoys to draw enemy fire away from more effective/expensive strike assets.

[poesel]

54 minutes ago, Artkin said:

No moving parts? Pocket scramjet?

This is the technology behind it. It's actually quite simple.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pulsejet

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

If it's cheap enough that it could be used interchangeably as either a decoy or a strike asset (or both simultaneously) then being noisy to humans and visible to radar really would be a feature. Save the stealth for the expensive stuff.

It puts the enemy air defenses in a real bind. If they ever stop shooting at these missiles then they become effective strike assets. If they do shoot at them then they are so cheap that it could be easy to saturate the enemy air defenses, or they become effective decoys to draw enemy fire away from more effective/expensive strike assets.

But the way to get there isn't a bunch of garage work shops. It is to find some kind of mid grade sheet metal plant in Eastern Europe somewhere and get a real production line going, start turning out tens of the per hour, more even. It could become the Sten Gun of this war. Just good enough, and huge quantities. Would a muffler plant be ideal? The tolerances just good enough?

Edited July 13, 2023 by dan/california

[The_Capt]

6 hours ago, Carolus said:

 

I have no idea if Ukrainians will produce them in numbers soon or at all, but if they do, since this is a homemade product, it would alleviate my worries about the safe Russian hinterland.

So I can only wish for a production target of 100 per month.

V1 is back baby!!! Can’t keep a good doodlebug down.

[kevinkin]

Decoys?  MALD is around 400K per missile. These have to be less. Maybe they can broadcast a signature like the storm shadow and really mess with the RA operators. However, looks like they have a third of the range or so. 

[Centurian52]

3 hours ago, Carolus said:

 

A rough estimate of Russian tube artillery, which seems to be probaly the most important type of heavy weapon of the war.

https://telegra.ph/Stan-rosіjskoi-artilerіi-2023-Tverezij-analіz-07-13

Based on this, Russia would still seem to have a lot of iron. 

 

I'm sure they have more than that. That must just be their active numbers. The Military Balance 2022 lists around 18,800 artillery pieces, of which around 2,000ish were supposedly active (I believe The Military Balance equipment counts are supposed to apply for the end of the given year). But, while most of the active guns are self-propelled, the overwhelming majority of the guns in storage (about 12,400) are towed. Russia has probably lost far more guns than is listed on Oryx, since destroyed guns are probably far less likely to be photographed than destroyed tanks, so who knows how far they have run down their stocks of serviceable SP guns. Towed guns are obviously much less survivable against counterbattery fire, so we can expect their artillery losses to increase if they start running out of serviceable SP guns in storage and start pulling out more towed guns. And there are the usual question marks around how much of their stored equipment is serviceable or can be restored (I'd guess less than half). And I believe there was some controversy around the methodology The Military Balance used to get their numbers (I know their estimated number of stored Russian tanks was much higher than what Covert Cabal was able to count up from satellite imagery, so they may have similarly overestimated Russian artillery stores).

In any case, they have a lot of guns. So I don't think guns are the link that will break in their fire support chain. The weak links are ammunition supply, and barrel wear. They already seam to be seriously ammunition constrained.

Edited July 13, 2023 by Centurian52