How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chuckdyke]

Recent interview.

 

[cesmonkey]

Russian Telegrammer Rybar says:

https://t.me/rybar/49499

Quote

On the attempt to strike the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Crimean bridge

Ukrainian formations once again tried to strike at Russian facilities in the Republic of Crimea .

Anti-aircraft gunners of the 31st Air Defense Division of the Russian Armed Forces intercepted a missile north of Taman . No damage or casualties, debris fell into the waters of the Sea of Azov.

 

[Taranis]

 

 

[DesertFox]

7 hours ago, dan/california said:

Dang it I am going to have to breakdown and learn to use Telegram, simply because twitter has lost its mind.

Yeah, but whether someone has a blue or yellow checkmark is no criterium whether or not hes posting bull****.  Even before Musk took over there were lots of accounts producing fakenews which had blue checkmarks.

[danfrodo]

6 hours ago, JonS said:

This sentiment has been repeated a number of times recently - I really don’t understand what incisive point is supposedly being made.

I mean, is it that the Russians are the bad guys? Well, sure? They’ve been the bad guys for a while now. And in other breaking developments; water remains wet.

One expects the bad guys to do the bad things. That is, after all, why they are considered to be the bad guys, and in that respect it’s barely noteworthy. One does not expect the good guys to do the bad things, so when they do it is noteworthy in a way that it isn’t for the Russians. Think “dog bites man” vs. “man bites dog.”

Would it help if I edited my sig strap line to include a proforma “… and of course the Russians continue to do bad things!”? That way every post would include a peep from someone, and maybe then this particular strawman can be retired.

I get what you are saying, JonS.   But my point wasn't 'bad people are being bad' it was about the physical reality that UKR is already littered w mines for hundreds of kms.   Cluster munitions could add to that, but it's a small % of what's already there.  If there were no mines right now, then the cluster munitions would be 100% of the problem. 

[Carolus]

Apparently Gerasimov was relieved of overall command over the Russian troops in Ukraine. He remains Chief of Staff.

New commander is a man called General Mikhail Teplinsky, who is also commander of the VDV. He was the guy who organized the retreat from Kherson west of the Dniepr and was fired in January from his command post for it.

[paxromana]

1 minute ago, Carolus said:

Apparently Gerasimov was relieved of overall command over the Russian troops in Ukraine. He remains Chief of Staff.

New commander is a man called General Mikhail Teplinsky, who is also commander of the VDV. He was the guy who organized the retreat from Kherson west of the Dniepr and was fired in January from his command post for it.

Playing Deck Chairs on the Titanic ...

[DesertFox]

3 minutes ago, Carolus said:

Apparently Gerasimov was relieved of overall command over the Russian troops in Ukraine. He remains Chief of Staff.

New commander is a man called General Mikhail Teplinsky, who is also commander of the VDV. He was the guy who organized the retreat from Kherson west of the Dniepr and was fired in January from his command post for it.

I stopped counting somewhen back last year. This is now the 5th commander for the "not so special orc-demilitarizing operation" ?

Edited July 9, 2023 by DesertFox

[Haiduk]

11 hours ago, dan/california said:

Aren't a lot of Rosgvardia uniforms mostly black? They could either be desperate enough to send a bunch more of them to the front? Or maybe they just had a stack of the uniforms that were handiest thing to hand out?

 

No, black uniform is a feature of some specific police special forces or OMON riot police, but they have nothing to do here. I can assume either this armored vehicles crewmen, sent like infantry in the trenches after their vehicles where taken out, or maybe they are just convicts in dark robes (if MoD decided to save money for camo for this "penalty units")

[DesertFox]

11 hours ago, Fenris said:

From another tweet with the same clip

 

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1677774741145370625

Thanks. Now also official answer:

 

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1678065724072550400?s=20

[TheVulture]

15 minutes ago, Carolus said:

Apparently Gerasimov was relieved of overall command over the Russian troops in Ukraine. He remains Chief of Staff.

New commander is a man called General Mikhail Teplinsky, who is also commander of the VDV. He was the guy who organized the retreat from Kherson west of the Dniepr and was fired in January from his command post for it.

So is he a competent General who executed a difficult manoeuvre well (withdrawing the bulk of his men across the river from contact) who paid the price for doing the politically inconvenient but militarily necessary thing? 

Or

Is he the muppet who tried to hold on an untenable bridgehead for far too long and was eventually forced back over the Dneipr leaving most of his heavy equipment behind. 

The impression I got here at the time was thar most people thought that the Russian defence of and withdrawl from Kherson was one of the more competently executed things they've managed so far in this war.

[Haiduk]

Other video of 2S22 Bohdana mod.2023 work. Autoloader is criticallly needed...

 

[cesmonkey]

18 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Thanks. Now also official answer:

 

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1678065724072550400?s=20

 

[Taranis]

8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Other video of 2S22 Bohdana mod.2023 work. Autoloader is criticallly needed...

 

The concern I think is that the automatic loader requires the installation of a hydraulic system, plus sensors etc. The cost of the vehicle would be greatly increased and then the hydraulic system also means a certain fragility (a torn or pierced pipe for example...) and a more complex vehicle to produce (IT, chips etc).
In the current state of war, could Ukraine afford the mass production of this type of vehicle with a hydraulic system? I think in my humble opinion that it would not be reasonable and that the means are better deployed elsewhere. Knowing that a vehicle of this type already exists and is provided (although in small numbers). The proof, the production of the CAESAR is very slow...

Did you know what are the caracteristic of Mod '23 variant ? (an exit from prototype status?)

Edited July 9, 2023 by Taranis

[DesertFox]

Totally agree

 

https://twitter.com/general_ben/status/1678076844229156865?s=20

[Vanir Ausf B]

30 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

So is he a competent General who executed a difficult manoeuvre well (withdrawing the bulk of his men across the river from contact) who paid the price for doing the politically inconvenient but militarily necessary thing? 

Or

Is he the muppet who tried to hold on an untenable bridgehead for far too long and was eventually forced back over the Dneipr leaving most of his heavy equipment behind. 

The impression I got here at the time was thar most people thought that the Russian defence of and withdrawl from Kherson was one of the more competently executed things they've managed so far in this war.

From all I have read Teplinsky's dismissal had nothing to do with battlefield performance and everything to do with him clashing with Gerasimov.

Teplinsky seems to be well-respected by almost everyone beside Gerasimov but this war will not be decided by generalship.

[Haiduk]

36 minutes ago, Taranis said:

In the current state of war, could Ukraine afford the mass production of this type of vehicle with a hydraulic system?

As I know our designers couldn't create properly working autoloader even as a model, so Bohdana prototype of 2018 hadn't it and as we can see, the problem still not solved. There was information Ukraine and Slovakia have negotiation about cooperative development of autoloader, but obviously, this is the future and for now private Mykola will be autoloader, lifting up 45 kg shells over his head. And very doubtful, that state than will pay a treatment of his spine deseases

Visible difference of mod.2023 from mod.2018 is new сhassis and cabine - chassis of KRAZ-63221 was changed for MAZ-6317 (it has Belarusian origin, but probably we have localized manufacturing). Cabine of KRAZ was substituted on cabine simiular to Varta MRAP. There was information that projectille rammer was added, but I cant say it's present on the video or not. Maybe something new was implemented in fire control modules. All other combat features still the same as on 2018 model.

There is a Bohdana 3.0 project, issued on picture on IDEX-2023 - at last the full-capable howitzer, based on Tatra chassis, but when it can be designed and produced - nobody knows...

 

  

Edited July 9, 2023 by Haiduk

[Carolus]

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/09/ukraine-ramps-up-ammunition-production-amid-war-with-russia/?swcfpc=1

 

If you want to get something done, best do it yourself etc.

 

[Haiduk]

Artillery of 110th mech.brigade repelled next Russian armored assault on the north of Avdiivka in Vesele village area.

Avdiivka direction still hot - Russians after small pause continued attacks, moving here the best (by Strelkov opinion) unit of DPR - 1st "Slavianskaya" motor-rifle brigade to southern flank and 136th motor-rifle brigade of RF to northern flank (at least one battalion, because units of this brigade are simultainously involved on V.Novosilka salient). Main direction of Russian attacks here is southern flank, where they concentrated many capable DPR units. Initially Russians/DPR had some advance - about 1,5 km north from Opytne, but UKR counter-attack soon restrored status-quo. On northern flank UKR troops recently pushed back Russians behind the dam near Vesele. 

 

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, Carolus said:

Apparently Gerasimov was relieved of overall command over the Russian troops in Ukraine. He remains Chief of Staff.

New commander is a man called General Mikhail Teplinsky, who is also commander of the VDV. He was the guy who organized the retreat from Kherson west of the Dniepr and was fired in January from his command post for it.

Yep. A significant concession to Prigozhin and whoever backed him while Wagner now plans to spend the next month or more relaxing at their bases before a potential August move to Belarus. Folks, if you are going to 'lose' a coup this is how you want to do it.

[pintere]

43 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Artillery of 110th mech.brigade repelled next Russian armored assault on the north of Avdiivka in Vesele village area.

Avdiivka direction still hot - Russians after small pause continued attacks, moving here the best (by Strelkov opinion) unit of DPR - 1st "Slavianskaya" motor-rifle brigade to southern flank and 136th motor-rifle brigade of RF to northern flank (at least one battalion, because units of this brigade are simultainously involved on V.Novosilka salient). Main direction of Russian attacks here is southern flank, where they concentrated many capable DPR units. Initially Russians/DPR had some advance - about 1,5 km north from Opytne, but UKR counter-attack soon restrored status-quo. On northern flank UKR troops recently pushed back Russians behind the dam near Vesele. 

 

Seeing all those Russian vehicles grouped together like that…

I have a feeling these kind of videos will be far more interesting to watch once the cluster munitions finally get to the frontline.

[DesertFox]

Economist piece about sappers - worth a read

 

Sappers risk their lives to win Ukraine back, inch by inch (economist.com)

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1678106384540262401?s=20

[Haiduk]

I think, this video of destroying of T-90MS with SMART munitions by artilelry of 47th mech.brigade already was posted here, just interesting remark of UKR artilleryman - this is good weapon, but it requires many factors for successful usage - most critical is the shell have to blow up in small area over the target in order to submunition could be correctly targeted the armor. If the shell explodes even slightly furtehr - both submunitions will miss. Also on accuracy of SMART shells influences the humidity of powder and weather, so this is not 100%-uber-weapon

 

 

Edited July 9, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

UKR soldier: We got three [Roshels].

In comments:

They likely will go three battalions of our brigade as command&staff vehicles as substitution of  R-145 [old Soviet C&SV based on BTR-60]

UKR battalions now try to equip own HQ communication vehicles on the base of armored cars instead of old Soviet vehicles (R-145, R-142, BMP-1KSh), which just upgraded with modern radio. Roshel Senator is popular model for these purposes

 

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, Taranis said:

 

 

The autoloaders function is too throw the turret 50 meters into the air, and insure that the crew doesn't suffer if the turret is armor is penetrated by pretty much anything.