How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Well put. Just because someone is "Opposition" to Putin doesn't mean they're Good People, it's probably just that they're not in power. 

Oligarchs tend to be out for themselves, but their interests might temporarily align with the good guys.  Several of Ukraine's oligarchs switched support to the Maidan movement after Russian attempted coups in 2014, however they certainly didn't support reforming government to be less corrupt. 

Steve

[sburke]

8 minutes ago, Carolus said:

Stress in what way? 

I won’t do your reading for you. Go look into employment opportunities for young people, housing situation and the pension plan. Stop assuming stuff and read about the actual events affecting Chinese society. 

[The_Capt]

13 minutes ago, sburke said:

I won’t do your reading for you. Go look into employment opportunities for young people, housing situation and the pension plan. Stop assuming stuff and read about the actual events affecting Chinese society. 

Meow!  Someone didn’t get his pistachio pudding today.

[sburke]

Just now, The_Capt said:

Meow!  Someone didn’t get his pistachio pudding today.

My plane is late and I have to walk across a hot tarmac to board. I’m grumpy. 

[sburke]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/exiled-wagner-boss-returns-russia-114024764.html

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, TheVulture said:

Looking at a topographical map, it seems like the difference between controlling the heights west of the town versus controlling the town is negligible - the town runs about 3km along the base of a ridge line, and is only 500m or so wide (up to 1km at the widest point). If anyone controls the ridge line, the town below looks like it is basically a shooting range,

Yup.  And if you look to the east you can see that Russia probably has to withdraw significantly to form up a new defensive line.  So if their positions within Kleshcheevka is untenable, they will likely withdraw their main force soon and leave only a rearguard (if that).

This is a really big deal in terms of what it means for retaking Bakhmut.  With the heights (apparently already secured) Ukraine can dominate a pretty good swath of terrain south of the city.  I'm not saying Russia will wholesale up and withdraw from its positions between Kleshcheevka and Kurdiumivka, but militarily there is little point to fighting to keep that ground.  Obviously Russia doesn't seem to operate rationally all the time, however in this case they might simply because the logistics of holding it look very challenging.

Once Russia leaves Kleshcheevka I assume their new main line of resistance will be the settlements in north/south alignment with  Zaitseve to the east, using the Bakhmut river as a forward defense line.  A new gray zone is likely to exist between there and Kleshcheevka for a period of time.  I think how long depends on if Ukraine decides to shift focus on coming at Bakhmut from the south or if they shift support to the north for a while.

Whatever the case is, Russia is losing control of the situation far faster than anything else going on at the moment.  Given the symbolism of Bakhmut, there is an additional propaganda element to this in Ukraine's favor.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, sburke said:

I won’t do your reading for you. Go look into employment opportunities for young people, housing situation and the pension plan. Stop assuming stuff and read about the actual events affecting Chinese society. 

Well, I think you're both correct.  Carolus is speaking about how well the CCP is handling the social and economic stress within.  The ability of the CCP to control social pressures is, absolutely, impressive and not to be underestimated.  However, you're looking at the tea leaves and recognizing trends that are both significant and unsustainable.  We've been doing the same thing with Russia since the war began.  I take Carolus' point to be that the CCP has shown itself to be far more adaptive and effective than Russia, therefore it is probably going to ride this out longer.

China is way in the back of my knowledge base, but for a long time I've considered the CCP the best managed autocratic system in modern history.  There are some that were bigger (Soviet Union), there are some that are more thorough (North Korea), but none that have achieved as much outside of maintaining power at this scale of control.  I think the CCP is headed down the drain, but I agree with Carolus that it is going to take either a long time or a confluence of cataclysmic economic shocks before we see it start to fall apart.

Steve

[keas66]

28 minutes ago, sburke said:

I won’t do your reading for you. Go look into employment opportunities for young people, housing situation and the pension plan. Stop assuming stuff and read about the actual events affecting Chinese society. 

I'm reading about them and it looks to me that The CCP/Police crack down hard every time there is an outburst/protest  of any sort . Are you reading/seeing something different ? Or are you hypothesizing that the CCP can't keep this up ( internal control of its population - or doesn't have the will ? ) . I don't buy it myself - The Chinese are a cowed population - and until I see  signs of violent protests erupting I see no signs of an end to the CCP .

[kimbosbread]

2 minutes ago, keas66 said:

I'm reading about them and it looks to me that The CCP/Police crack down hard every time there is an outburst/protest  of any sort . Are you reading/seeing something different ? Or are you hypothesizing that the CCP can't keep this up ( internal control of its population - or doesn't have the will ? ) . I don't buy it myself - The Chinese are a cowed population - and until I see  signs of violent protests erupting I see no signs of an end to the CCP .

There were major protests that prompted the end of the lockdowns that erupted somewhat spontaneously. Of course responsible people were found and locked up, but the government changed course very fast, which indicates a less than stable situation on the ground, especially given the epic real estate crunch, which represents a significant fraction of GDP and store of wealth.

[keas66]

8 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

There were major protests that prompted the end of the lockdowns that erupted somewhat spontaneously. Of course responsible people were found and locked up, but the government changed course very fast, which indicates a less than stable situation on the ground, especially given the epic real estate crunch, which represents a significant fraction of GDP and store of wealth.

And yet the protests ended with no change in Government or leadership and some token officials likely punished .  The population has no other government to vote for so no change in ruling party . Lets say  violent country wide protests  start  over  economic issues in the near future - whether it be due to real estate or  industrial issues  - You don't think the CCP will use the Army if it has to ? It has done it before and it will do it again . The CCP is an Authoritarian Dictatorship - they only way they will change is at the point of a gun .

 

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/31/china/china-xi-national-security-meeting-intl-hnk/index.html

Edited July 5, 2023 by keas66

[Yet]

I think last years harvest produced some bad potatoes.

With Aleksej Avramenko (transport and communication, 46 years old) the third Belarussian minister died since november. Makej (Foreign affairs, 65 years old) and Mitjanski (economic affairs, 43 years old) are the others. 

[Carolus]

(If embedding doesnt work: Chinese companies are hiring Wagner PMC in Africa to protect their projects and facilities.

China also worked with Wagner to rescue several Chinese hostages who were taken by militias in Central African Republic.)

Looks like Wagner PMC has found new customers. 

Edited July 5, 2023 by Carolus

[poesel]

1 hour ago, keas66 said:

The Chinese are a cowed population

Yes and no. The Chinese can and will endure a lot of hardships and limitations to their personal freedom. But there is a breaking point and if that is reached the reaction can be quick and violent. That could be watched at the end of the covid restrictions: the Chinese had enough and went on the streets. A mob of angry people - that is the thing the CCP fears most. Thus, the restrictions ended abruptly.

Another point is that the people expect economic improvements. The path must be up. No steeply but steadily. In this regard, the CCP has not exactly delivered in the last few years.

The CCP may try to use Taiwan as a scapegoat for the current problems. Problem is the lackluster support from the population. I talked to (few, I have to admit) Chinese and the younger they are, the more disinterested they are in 'solving' Taiwan.

[FancyCat]

imo, if ZNPP is unlikely to cause a widespread cloud or beyond the borders of Ukraine, then i would say Russia is more likely to undertake faking attacks on it by Ukraine.

 

 

[Carolus]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

I won’t do your reading for you. Go look into employment opportunities for young people, housing situation and the pension plan. Stop assuming stuff and read about the actual events affecting Chinese society. 

Harumph, harumph. Well to gather more information is certainly never bad advice and I will do my best to follow it. 

Since the internal situation of China is not really related to Ukraine, I will keep my tooth-box shut on the topic though, even if I do find something which enlightens me and changes my view of the iron-fisted control the CCP firmly has in my view.

[Carolus]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, I think you're both correct.  Carolus is speaking about how well the CCP is handling the social and economic stress within.  The ability of the CCP to control social pressures is, absolutely, impressive and not to be underestimated.  However, you're looking at the tea leaves and recognizing trends that are both significant and unsustainable.  We've been doing the same thing with Russia since the war began.  I take Carolus' point to be that the CCP has shown itself to be far more adaptive and effective than Russia, therefore it is probably going to ride this out longer.

China is way in the back of my knowledge base, but for a long time I've considered the CCP the best managed autocratic system in modern history.  There are some that were bigger (Soviet Union), there are some that are more thorough (North Korea), but none that have achieved as much outside of maintaining power at this scale of control.  I think the CCP is headed down the drain, but I agree with Carolus that it is going to take either a long time or a confluence of cataclysmic economic shocks before we see it start to fall apart.

Steve

I didnt see this post before, so I am a liar and do not keep my tooth-box as shut as it should be. But this is exactly what I tried to express.

The CCP is not forever. But I weigh the current bad trends - housing crisis, hapless infrastructure spending, brain drain, economic bubbles, employment situation etc. vs. a state which uses AI to automatically identify jaywalkers in their power centers (cities) through a network of 700 million CCTV cameras, projects the faces of offenders onto the next building-sized LED display, and voids the digital metro tickets on their mobile phone instantly. A country in which kitchen knives are registered with micro-chips and chained to walls to deny possible rebel groups the chance to hoard weapons.

[Ultradave]

7 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

imo, if ZNPP is unlikely to cause a widespread cloud or beyond the borders of Ukraine, then i would say Russia is more likely to undertake faking attacks on it by Ukraine.

 

 

I agree in general terms with this analysis although a couple points to make are:

1) In regards to spent fuel pools, yes, they have additional means of cooling, but so did Fukushima until the you know what hit the fan. So postulating what might or might not be operational or usable after some sabotage or battle damage is really being hopeful.

2) Yes, the Fukushima containments were somewhat less robust, but there was also an inner containment which was quite robust. Those failed in varying degrees.

3) The explosions seen at Fukushima were from hydrogen buildup in the containments. All plants have "sparklers" for lack of a better term, that will safely burn off excess H2 (>4% in air is explosive if I remember right, >~95% is not oddly, because not enough O2 for combustion!). Unfortunately the sparklers at Fukushima were of an older design, due to be replaced, and instead of safely burning the H2, they caused the explosions. (Rolls-Royce evaluation at the time). I believe worldwide, new systems have been put in to safely burn. Why is this important? That's where the spent fuel pools were at Fukushima, and the explosion and subsequent fire is what caused aerosol/particulate plumes of fission products, so the result of a mechanical explosion COULD have wider consequences (which the article doesn't mention or explore). Again however, though, the containment here is more robust.

4) Side note - USSR stated that the RBMK reactors did not NEED a containment because their strict operating procedures and extensive training would preclude an accident. The root cause of the accident, regardless of the design, were multiple failures to follow operating procedures, performing an unapproved test, and the complete failure of the operators to understand what was happening in order to take the proper steps. Everything they did made it worse.   We were taught "Believe your indications, because they are all you have. If you have an indication of a problem, acting on that will only put the plant in a more safe condition"  They can complain later about wasting time or money, but my response was always. "I was there. I had the watch. My responsibility. My decision."  They cannot argue with this. Naval Reactors will back that 100%, even if you get grief from your management. THIS is the difference between our power plants and the Russians, more so than the design. As a senior Naval Reactors officer said to us once - "and uncompromising attitude toward safety"   which in our terms meant. "When in doubt, shut it down"

Bit of a ramble on that 4) but bottom line, that article is a reasonable summary, with some added explanation from me, for those who like that sort of thing.

Dave

[billbindc]

23 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

I agree in general terms with this analysis although a couple points to make are:

1) In regards to spent fuel pools, yes, they have additional means of cooling, but so did Fukushima until the you know what hit the fan. So postulating what might or might not be operational or usable after some sabotage or battle damage is really being hopeful.

2) Yes, the Fukushima containments were somewhat less robust, but there was also an inner containment which was quite robust. Those failed in varying degrees.

3) The explosions seen at Fukushima were from hydrogen buildup in the containments. All plants have "sparklers" for lack of a better term, that will safely burn off excess H2 (>4% in air is explosive if I remember right, >~95% is not oddly, because not enough O2 for combustion!). Unfortunately the sparklers at Fukushima were of an older design, due to be replaced, and instead of safely burning the H2, they caused the explosions. (Rolls-Royce evaluation at the time). I believe worldwide, new systems have been put in to safely burn. Why is this important? That's where the spent fuel pools were at Fukushima, and the explosion and subsequent fire is what caused aerosol/particulate plumes of fission products, so the result of a mechanical explosion COULD have wider consequences (which the article doesn't mention or explore). Again however, though, the containment here is more robust.

4) Side note - USSR stated that the RBMK reactors did not NEED a containment because their strict operating procedures and extensive training would preclude an accident. The root cause of the accident, regardless of the design, were multiple failures to follow operating procedures, performing an unapproved test, and the complete failure of the operators to understand what was happening in order to take the proper steps. Everything they did made it worse.   We were taught "Believe your indications, because they are all you have. If you have an indication of a problem, acting on that will only put the plant in a more safe condition"  They can complain later about wasting time or money, but my response was always. "I was there. I had the watch. My responsibility. My decision."  They cannot argue with this. Naval Reactors will back that 100%, even if you get grief from your management. THIS is the difference between our power plants and the Russians, more so than the design. As a senior Naval Reactors officer said to us once - "and uncompromising attitude toward safety"   which in our terms meant. "When in doubt, shut it down"

Bit of a ramble on that 4) but bottom line, that article is a reasonable summary, with some added explanation from me, for those who like that sort of thing.

Dave

Nuclear Diner is Cheryl Rofer. 

Quite a resume: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheryl_Rofer

[Bulletpoint]

What happened to the Ukrainian claims of Russians using chemical weapons? Any news or was that just disinformation propaganda?

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

imo, if ZNPP is unlikely to cause a widespread cloud or beyond the borders of Ukraine, then i would say Russia is more likely to undertake faking attacks on it by Ukraine.

 

 

That it's a different design and not susceptible to the same kind of failure shouldn't be taken as a challenge to find a new way to make a comparable radioactive mess.

[dan/california]

"Blyat, these t55s are ancient like mammoth crap". Another Russian realizes the are REALLY not winning the war in Ukraine as train load of rotting T-55s rolls past.

[kluge]

35 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

imo, if ZNPP is unlikely to cause a widespread cloud or beyond the borders of Ukraine, then i would say Russia is more likely to undertake faking attacks on it by Ukraine.

Agreed with your conclusion, but I think the article you linked ignored some very pertinent risk factors. The author focuses on the technical aspects of reactor design, and indeed ZNPP is designed in a way that makes an immediate breach of containment unlikely.

But even with the reactors in a cold shutdown state, the laws of physics dictate that containment will eventually be breached without adequate cooling. If the cooling system is damaged, will it be possible to get resources onsite to repair it in the middle of a frontline? What happens if rescue workers are subjected to shelling? Can it be done before the estimated several weeks it will reportedly take before the situation worsens?

Were an act of sabotage were to occur, Ukraine will have a delayed time bomb to deal with. Even in a scenario where containment is not breached, officials will have to keep the local population reassured that everything is under control.

As such, I do not think that Ukraine is exaggerating the risks at all here. At a minimum, Ukrainian officials need to do exactly what they are currently doing- demonstrating that they are prepared for such an event.

[FancyCat]

15 minutes ago, kluge said:

Agreed with your conclusion, but I think the article you linked ignored some very pertinent risk factors. The author focuses on the technical aspects of reactor design, and indeed ZNPP is designed in a way that makes an immediate breach of containment unlikely.

But even with the reactors in a cold shutdown state, the laws of physics dictate that containment will eventually be breached without adequate cooling. If the cooling system is damaged, will it be possible to get resources onsite to repair it in the middle of a frontline? What happens if rescue workers are subjected to shelling? Can it be done before the estimated several weeks it will reportedly take before the situation worsens?

Were an act of sabotage were to occur, Ukraine will have a delayed time bomb to deal with. Even in a scenario where containment is not breached, officials will have to keep the local population reassured that everything is under control.

As such, I do not think that Ukraine is exaggerating the risks at all here. At a minimum, Ukrainian officials need to do exactly what they are currently doing- demonstrating that they are prepared for such an event.

I've seen videos of medical and emergency personnel prepping to deal with nuclear incidents from Ukraine, so thats covered seemingly. 

I am noting that if a incident were to occur, its likely that it wouldn't become immediately cross-border issue, therefore, we shouldn't be so gib to Ukraine urging Western priority and focus on preventing a disaster at ZNPP. And like I pointed out, it needs not enter a escalation ladder, things like more sanctions threatened, urging a consensus for a demilitarized zone at ZNPP under UN auspices, empowerment of the IAEA to gain full access to the entire plant, etc, these are entirely reasonable and non-esculatory actions that wouldn't risk nuclear bombs hitting Washington or some such.

[Ultradave]

21 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I've seen videos of medical and emergency personnel prepping to deal with nuclear incidents from Ukraine, so thats covered seemingly. 

I am noting that if a incident were to occur, its likely that it wouldn't become immediately cross-border issue, therefore, we shouldn't be so gib to Ukraine urging Western priority and focus on preventing a disaster at ZNPP. And like I pointed out, it needs not enter a escalation ladder, things like more sanctions threatened, urging a consensus for a demilitarized zone at ZNPP under UN auspices, empowerment of the IAEA to gain full access to the entire plant, etc, these are entirely reasonable and non-esculatory actions that wouldn't risk nuclear bombs hitting Washington or some such.

All good unless Russia decides to do something stupid before those things can be considered.

Dave

[Teufel]

7 hours ago, kraze said:

in his twitter he basically dropped all pretense and openly supported Prig's "coup", urging people to join him. Of course he is pissed off about putin's jailtime, but supporting another putin very much shows that his only problem with the "evil regime" is only personal. He's perfectly fine if filth is running Russia as long as it's his filth.

Hold on, if openly supporting Prigozjin makes one liar and unreliable then half of us in this thread are guilty as charged. Seriously, how many posts did in one way or another express approval for the coup in Russia? Not joking, are we using double standards here?