How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, FancyCat said:

 

To parody the American comedian Jeff Foxworthy...

You know you're an unstable dictatorship when your internal security forces need to be as heavily armed as the military.

I expect what will happen is that they'll do little more than have some regionalized "heavy" units that can be brought into action faster than coordinating with the MoD.  I don't doubt some will be formed as it does partly protect against another Wagner problem, but I don't think we'll see large scale (i.e. military scale) employment.  I also wonder if Kadyrov will get any under his direct authority.  IMHO not a good idea to do that.

Speaking of Kadyrov, he's about the only one in this mess to come out ahead of where he started.  Loyalty proven, even if it was limited to a few TikTok videos.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Some nice counter battery fire posted a few days ago.  Apparently I was distracted before I posted it here

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14gamtm/the_47th_separate_artillery_brigade_in/

This is somewhere on the eastern side of the southern front.

Steve

[akd]

BEHOLD! The ultimate cope:

 

[Beleg85]

34 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Not that anyone had any doubts, but it is good to hear that russia spoke it out in front of the world. Wagner is the state terror organization of russia. So all atrocities of Wagner are atrocities committed by the russian state.

Funny- still illegal under Russian law.

I am very curious what effect will have on larger population this Prigozhin statement just before he started to move, that narrations about "children of Donbas" being shelled by perfidious Nazis was bollocks from the start. This narration was particluary loved by nats, who also partially sided with mutineers. Ofc. it's Russia, so truth will melt into nothingess soon like cheese left on July sun, covered by successive layers of absurd propaganda. Yet, perhaps it may ultimatelly seed doubts about aims of this war into some minds.

Putin very visibly try to frame Prig as just another corrupt oligarch, sucking from federal budget. Perhaps they will indict him on fraud charges, like Al Capone

Edited June 27, 2023 by Beleg85

[sburke]

31 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Not that anyone had any doubts, but it is good to hear that russia spoke it out in front of the world. Wagner is the state terror organization of russia. So all atrocities of Wagner are atrocities committed by the russian state.

 

One more reason to declare Russia a terrorist state. 

[Battlefront.com]

1.  Some close up video of the destruction of Wagner vehicles on their march to Moscow:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14k4yjn/videos_of_wagnerites_burned_in_their_vehicles_in/

 

2.  Dashcam vid from a civilian driving on the M4 when it was shelled (anybody guess what the strike was from?)

https://www.reddit.com/r/FreedomofRussia/comments/14jhvwp/forl_vdl_according_to_our_activists_yesterday_one/

 

3.  Dashcam video of what appears to be an airstrike on the M4.  Remember that at the time Prig was saying that Russia airforce was bombing indiscriminately and hitting civilians.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1673365826185969668

 

4.  High zoom (low quality) video of Ukrainian boats dropping off soldiers under the Antonovsky bridge:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14jl6c5/the_armed_forces_of_ukraine_at_the_left_bank_of/

 

5.  Trench warfare, but this time it's a Russian beating up another Russian:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14jfsac/one_of_entertainments_is_watching_rooster_battles/

 

6.  And lastly... a funny cartoon of our favorite TikTok warriors in "action":

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14jhz6s/tik_tok_warriors/

Steve

[dan/california]

Lukashenko is is one slippery B^^%*^*#D. I guarantee you he is on the phone to the Poles or the Baltics right now scheming about how to sell Putin down the river and somehow survive Russia's impending total defeat in Ukraine. Of course in a just world he would meet a Wagner sledge hammer 12 hours before NATO tanks rolled thru Minsk.

[kimbosbread]

Luka really is amazing. He’s managed to keep Belarus out of the war as much as is possible, he’s now embarassing Putin. What next for the potato tsar?

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

And now for more combat orientated videos:

1.  K-2s 4th video of the fight for "Granite".  I'll repost with YouTube link once I find one:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14jip56/defense_of_granit_series_4_deficiency_battalion/

 

2.  Interview with the Ukrainian soldier who shot 4 Russians in the GoPro video from a week or so ago.  CC auto translate not too bad when it works.  Unfortunately it seems the muffled speaking results in quite a bit of the conversation being lost.

 

3.  Good drone footage of successful takedown of major Russian position.  Lots of dead, lots of captured, and a bunch that ran away.

Steve

 

[Battlefront.com]

59 minutes ago, akd said:

BEHOLD! The ultimate cope:

 

Now THAT is impressive.  Someone finally decided they needed to cope with hits to the front and back of the hull.  Bravo.  Unlikely to work, but still quite a good effort.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

 

All I was looking at in this tank photo was the (vulnerable) tracks, and then wondering how quickly the ingenious Ukie chopper shops could weld a resilient mine plough onto the front of each and every MBT.

Perhaps that is the decisive role of MBTs at this particular point in history? as heavily armoured minefield trailblazers?

So who's the Ukie "Sergeant Culin"?

[The_Capt]

8 hours ago, Carolus said:

Mine clearing seems to be a huge issue.

Can mines be detonated by cluster ammunition? Or classic impact artillery? Is it reliable or cost-effective to blast a path down the minefield with a rolling barrage? Does that ruin the field for tracked vehicles? 

Mine-clearing vehicles seem to be vulnerable to being targeted since they need to be present at the position and are crewed by people. 

AT- Mines are usually triggered by weight and magnetics. Weight prevents the idea of using a lot of small remote controlled vehicles, since they would not trigger. Using heavy remote controlled vehicles seems expensive.

Yes and likely to get worse not better.

Cluster munitions to clear…not a viable solution.  One would need to basically saturate a minefield with them and even then you would not be sure of the clearance.

Conventional artillery….also not really viable.  Delay fuse munitions particularly heavy stuff does make nice big craters but they are just as likely to push or flip a mine as to destroy it.  To clear one would need to hammer a line through the field and in doing so would be creating a new anti-vehicle obstacle in the process.

We use explosive line charges which use massive overpressure to detonate mines in a lane, but even then it has to be proven by a roller.

Minefield breaching has been, and will continue to be a very dangerous operation.  Right there on the “avoid if you can” shelf with amphib and water x-ings.  The problem is that it takes a lot of moving parts to pull off and in many cases if a single node fails the entire thing collapses - we saw this with the infamous minefield disaster the UA had a few weeks ago.  Add to this smart landmines or (god help us) mobile ones and minewarfare is likely going to up its game beyond “obstacle” to area denial.

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

All I was looking at in this tank photo was the (vulnerable) tracks, and then wondering how quickly the ingenious Ukie chopper shops could weld a resilient mine plough onto the front of each and every MBT.

Perhaps that is the decisive role of MBTs at this particular point in history? as heavily armoured minefield trailblazers?

So who's the Ukie "Sergeant Culin"?

Modern mine ploughs are actually pretty complex but your are likely correct.  The only other viable method is to do hand breaching by hand, normally at night.  Here you risk a few infantry/sappers as opposed to millions of dollars of equipment.  It is harsh but true that people are cheaper than hardware at some points in warfare.

[Eddy]

Ages ago I read/heard that prior to either Desert Storm or the Iraq invasion that the US used a massive fuel air explosive to clear a minefield. It was the only time I have ever read/heard of this but was wondering if

a) that was true?

b) whether that is a viable solution? 

[The_Capt]

12 minutes ago, Eddy said:

Ages ago I read/heard that prior to either Desert Storm or the Iraq invasion that the US used a massive fuel air explosive to clear a minefield. It was the only time I have ever read/heard of this but was wondering if

a) that was true?

b) whether that is a viable solution? 

Yes.  Modern line charges have a FAE version - name escapes me.  They detonate or destroy a lane through over-pressure.  However it is very high risk to simply drive through without proving.

Now if we are talking airdropped, apparently someone already tried it and it did not work out too badly, with PGM this could be onto something.  However, I am willing to bet the system may be defeatable by simply adapting the fuses of the mines.

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/ADA251392

Edited June 27, 2023 by The_Capt

[kevinkin]

The first use was in 2017 in Afghanistan. I think it's a matter of delivery i.e. getting it to the target safely. There may be other constraints. Russians have their own version too. 

4 minutes ago, Eddy said:

a) that was true?

 

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Modern mine ploughs are actually pretty complex but your are likely correct.  The only other viable method is to do hand breaching by hand, normally at night.  Here you risk a few infantry/sappers as opposed to millions of dollars of equipment.  It is harsh but true that people are cheaper than hardware at some points in warfare.

 

Quote

https://www.bostondynamics.com/products/spot

 

The future is surely a contest between a herds of these things trying to lay smart mines for their own side, clearing the other guys, and whacking each other. Whoever can win the robot attrition war can attempt to move to the next stage of the operation.

As with so much else in Ukraine, the game is already underway with improvised COTS gear. 

[Eddy]

8 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/ADA251392

Interesting. 28 CBU-72s dropped from 4 Harriers (7 each) cleared a 30 metre breach to a depth of 210 metre with an 82% probability of clearing all of the mines.

I guess one obvious problem would be getting 4 Ukrainian aircraft anywhere near a minefield given the present air environment/

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

The first use was in 2017 in Afghanistan. I think it's a matter of delivery i.e. getting it to the target safely. There may be other constraints. Russians have their own version too. 

 

Obviously not very useful for urban terrain.  Not only because of the damage it would cause, but man made structures will dissipate the overpressure in an inconsistent way.  Plus, using that sort of thing over a civilian area is probably on The Hague's naughty list.

Steve

[Huba]

A very interesting piece of RUMINT, but from a notoriously reliable guy. Reportedly Ukrainians (with a little bit of foreign help...) managed overhaul and put back in service some S200 missiles. He hints at G2G use, with some small modifications it could be useful and rather hard to defend against.

 

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Obviously not very useful for urban terrain.  Not only because of the damage it would cause, but man made structures will dissipate the overpressure in an inconsistent way.  Plus, using that sort of thing over a civilian area is probably on The Hague's naughty list.

Steve

I suspect when you add up all the cost and logistics of doing it in contested air space it makes more sense to buy a  bunch more MICLUC vehicles. It would take a quite a few storm shadows too deliver an equivalent payload. Long term, I am betting on the robot dogs.

[RockinHarry]

5 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:

Even weirder?

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66023631

 

I took some time to look better at the available footage of the "mutiny" to check if I really saw what I thought I saw.

Compared to every other uprising, coup, mutiny and/or civil unrest I read about, saw pictures or camera-footage of, or heard witnesses/participants talk about, the Wagner-advance seemed to show a remarkable lack of stress, chaos and apprehension.

To me this whole thing looked more like an ADHDfilled teenager-schooltrip, than an "everyone's future and lives are very much at stake" high-stress occurence.

Prigozjin is looking remarkable relaxed throughout, which is quite a change from his earlier recent appearances. He is laying his life on the line, not only because of the "failure means death"-probabilty, but if there would be any resistance against this mutiny, he would be the prime target. But he, and his entourage, are all the time behaving like it is a walk in the park.

And look at the way most of the troops behave. Do they act like they expect enemy fire? Are they using every bit of cover while advancing? Are they nervously looking out for snipers or armor? Does it look like they expect any resistance at all? No, they go for coffee and food, sit very relaxed on parkbenches and cafe-terraces, stroll as if they know there will be no resistance. Very strange, especially when you realise that a lot of those soldiers recently were in combat at heavily contested frontlines, which tends to make anyone pretty anxious and alert in an urban situation where enemy fire can be expected any minute.

 

Every other coup or mutiny (etc) had camera-footage and reports that show chaos, excitement and confusion. People being very nervous/agitated. Adjutants, security-guys, messengers and officers, all running around and looking around and gesticulating and a lot of yelling and shouting going on. A continuous reporting and updating of enemy positions, resistance-levels, progression of advancing friendly units, news from the rest of the country, and so on.

I did not see that on a level that I would expect in a "mutiny" that was so sudden, so big and so powerful as this one. Not at all. While the possible, or likely, enemy force could be enormous.

Even when things were unfolding it almost looked to me as if, at least a big part of, the mutineers knew, or at least suspected, that there would be no real resistance.

Maybe they had perfect intel? Maybe it was Wagner self-confidence? Trusting in being lucky? Or, very possible, is my comparison with other mutinies and uprisings wrong?

I don't know what happend, but the fact that even 'Steve" and "TheCAPT" were uniquely shocked, proofs to me that this was one of the weirdest mutinies, and mutiny-endings, EVER.

 

that was exactly my same impression. Whoever will be purged now, I don´t think Prig will be among them.

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, RockinHarry said:

that was exactly my same impression. Whoever will be purged now, I don´t think Prig will be among them.

There is not enough discussion of the fundamental flaw in Prig's Coup plan. He was swearing to redouble Russia's commitment to the war, and be more competent at it. Lenin's coup succeeded because he promised the army it could quit fighting the Germans. He left out the bit about a savage civil war. You are always supposed to gloss over that in the elevator pitch.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://econfaculty.gmu.edu/bcaplan/museum/his1e.htm#:~:text=Lenin had promised "Peace%2C Land,famous Treaty of Brest-Litovsk.

Lenin had promised "Peace, Land, and Bread." After several false starts, the Bolsheviks successfully negotiated a separate peace with the Germans, the famous Treaty of Brest-Litovsk. Ratified in March, 1918, Lenin ceded the Baltic states, eastern Poland, and the Ukraine to the Germans. This amounted to surrendering over 25% of Russia's population. This removed the external threat to the Bolshevik regime

 

Apologies for spreading it across two posts.