How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[pintere]

Going back to the war in Ukraine for a moment, we do have a piece of good news.

https://insightnews.media/germany-to-transfer-45-more-gepard-anti-aircraft-systems-to-ukraine-in-2023/

According to the newspaper, Germany has already handed over 34 Gepard systems to Ukraine, and another 15 will be delivered in the coming weeks.

“In addition, we want to deliver up to 30 more Gepard systems by the end of the year in cooperation with the United States,” Freuding said.

[buena]

2 hours ago, Astrophel said:

The simple explanation for what happened yesterday is that Putin paid up.  Wagner is a mercenary group after all.

If that's the case could not Ukraine hire them to fight against the Russians? Plenty of historical examples of that

[The_Capt]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Taking another stab at this because, well, because it's fun

1.  Putin did not orchestrate this in some way.  There is no scenario that I can imagine where Putin chose this over a host of other possible options.  Putin has never schemed a way into being humiliated, less powerful, and more vulnerable by choice.  Yet that is absolutely what happened.  So for me, any form of any theory that has any active role of Putin orchestrating this in any meaningful way should be put at the very bottom of a very tall pile of possibilities.

2.  There is no way that Prig did this without some buy-in from the FSB, probably MoD, and likely various "elites".  As we just saw, US Intelligence knew this was going to happen so it's a sure bet the FSB did.  Probably even before there was an actual plan in place, just talk.  They should have told Putin, but it seems Putin was caught completely unaware.  Putin getting the info and not doing anything with it because he doubted it is possible, though unlikely given Prig's public comments and obvious military potential.  Putin knowing about it and allowing it to play out is a version of #1 above and should be ruled out for now.

This means:

• at a minimum, FSB was involved even if it was hiding information from Putin for their own agenda.  But I doubt this because Prig would know the FSB would likely know about the plot so he would be unlikely to actually execute it without their cooperation. 
• Prig apparently had immediate access to non-Wagner military assets right from the start and possible coordination with MoD units that could have got in his way.  So it is very likely the MoD had some role in this and it too kept that info from Putin. 
• I find it difficult to believe that high level MoD and FSB officers (which is what would be needed for this) would have acted without some assurances of political cover in case things went sideways.  This means elites that were not happy with Putin but too powerful to be murdered.

3.  Prig was not in danger of losing his life or his money.  His cooperation would be critical to a smooth transition for Wagner personnel and the continuation (if not expansion of) Russia's foreign policy priorities.  Prig had a lot to negotiate with and was likely to come out very well.  He is a mercenary so all the Kremlin would have to do is name the right price and everybody would be happy with the result.

4.  Nobody thinks the war is being fought well, though they don't necessarily agree on the specifics.  What I think they can all agree with, though, is that Putin and his top MoD buddies are largely responsible for things going in the wrong direction.  Whether their expectations for improvement are even remotely realistic is not relevant as long as they think their ideas are better than Putin's.

5.  The players involved all care about living their lives in luxury and with a minimal fear of being murdered, arrested, or Impoverished.  They are all going to cover their own arses, which means none of them can trust each other even if their interests are 100% in alignment and 100% compatible with each other.

6.  Only an insane group would want to be the frontman for all the bad stuff Russia faces now and in the future.  Especially given The Hague is in the picture, possibly even a NATO intervention.  Some smarter ones are probably worried about China.  Which means it's unlikely anybody serious (i.e. not a puppet) would want the job of President.  Plus, Russia is theoretically a democracy and that means elections, which are messy and time consuming.  Suspending the Russian Constitution to skip this step is not a good idea (see next point).

7.  Nobody in Russia's ruling power blocs have any interest in seeing Russia go into civil war.  Even significant fighting that is resolved quickly risks upsetting national stability, which would likely mean any victor would soon be facing insurmountable problems that put their fortunes and lives at risk.  In a really sick and twisted way, the best interests of the Russian people are being upheld by the most selfish, greedy, and ruthless bastards on Earth.  This, BTW, is the same logic that is hopefully going to keep nukes off the table.

 

I'm interested to see if anybody can poke holes in these three points.  To the degree they withstand scrutiny they help rule out a large number of possible scenarios.

 

Here's a scenario that is consistent with all of these things above and the events as they unfolded...

A coup is set up with powerful regime blocs, including high and mid level members of MoD, FSB, and oligarchs.  Their goal is to end/curb Putin's hitherto unchallenged Power Vertical, not to end the regime.  Putin himself is too well guarded, so a sort of Gorbachev scenario is too unpredictable and difficult to make work for them.  Instead, they get Prig on their team to do the dirty work.  But they don't like him or trust him, so it's a transactional deal at best.

On cue Prig does what Prig did.  He's wildly successful.  Maybe more so than the plotters anticipated, but honestly they should not have been surprised.  Coups are usually decided, one way or the other, within a few days.  Otherwise it seems to slip into civil war, which is something they absolutely do not want.  So I think it is safer to presume that things went well enough to plan for the coup plotters to have what they needed from Prig.

With Prig sitting in Rostov and on his way to Moscow with a force that very well could take (or at least cut off) Moscow the real powers behind the coup make an offer to Putin with the following outline:

1. Putin must not run for President in 2024 and further agrees to ensure a candidate of the plotter's choosing succeeds him
2. various powers previously exclusive to Putin are to now be under control of the plotters.  This includes appointments of key personnel
3. in exchange for this Prig is betrayed, Putin remains President for now, then in retirement lives a very rich life provided he keeps to himself

Prig is informed he no longer has partners in Moscow.  He is given an "accept or else" sort of offer:

1. stand down all active forces, call off expanding the military aspect of the coup
2. facilitate the orderly transition of Wagner members to the MoD who are deemed reasonably reliable
3. convince the hardcore Wagner members to go into exile in Belarus.  They will get paid and still serve Russia, but they are to follow orders or else
4. agree to go into exile in Belarus as well in exchange for keeping his life, money, and a lot of his previous Wagner powers.  As long as he plays nice he doesn't get assassinated, which Prig should be worried about because he knows who he is dealing with and that they know everything about him

That's really it.  The coup plotters got what they wanted from Putin without national instability, Prig is left high and dry, and the future of Russia is now decidedly in the hands of the plotters.

Thoughts?

Steve

My initial thought is “wow, this scenario is high risk”.  A bunch of armed troops are hard enough to control at the best of times.  In the middle of a coup/whatever where friend and foe get blurry really fast things can get completely out of control extremely easily.  What was weird about this one as it was unfolding was how little shooting was going on, maybe that was a hint that this was largely a show.  However, if some third party faction/dark lord is in the background pulling all the strings this stunt was really high risk.  To my mind there has to be easier ways to ease Putin out while trying to keep one’s head down.

It may be some time before we get enough information to understand what just happened - let alone who was behind it.  All we do know right now is that an enormous amount of uncertainty has just been injected into the entire Russian enterprise.  Even the sudden ending of this thing created more uncertainty.  Recall that uncertainty is toxic and induces a human reaction, normally driven by fear.  What we do not know is who is fully benefiting from this uncertainty.  But what we do know is that we just witnessed a major fissure widen to a chasm within the Russian macro-social framework.  We have been talking about Russian instability and wear and tear for some time, this has to be a major milestone on the path to system failure.

At a minimum, I do not think the myth of endless Russian iron resolve survived the weekend.  And for those fighting Russia, for those fighting for Russia, the full impacts are yet to be seen.  My sense is that we will need to stop seeing Prig and Wagner as a cause of Russian uncertainty but instead a symptom of a deeper uncertainty that really has the potential to fly out of control at a moments notice.  Russia came within inches of a full blown civil war in the last 72 hours.  They somehow crazy glued a patch to hold it together, for now.  But we and they cannot unsee what just happened.

[DesertFox]

Back to the front. There is a war going on after all. Graphic close quarters.

 

 

[DesertFox]

TikTokers being TikTokers...

 

 

 

 

Edited June 25, 2023 by DesertFox

[kevinkin]

13 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

TikTokers being TikTokers..

Holy **** they kidnapped ZZ Top and their manager. 

[kevinkin]

Gee, even those without humor got a tickle out of the events:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-russia-officials-meet-in-beijing-after-threat-to-putin/ar-AA1d0s9Q

In a potential dig at Russia, a Weibo account operated by a part of the People’s Liberation Army published a post by China National Radio about how Mao Zedong revamped the PLA in 1927 — an event that ensured the party retained absolute leadership over the army.

[BornGinger]

With Prigozhin and Wagner apparently moving to, and maybe creating a new headquarters in, Belarus it will be interesting to see whether some of the money from their work in Africa and other places will fill Lukashenko's pockets instead of Putin's.

It could maybe still be possible that Prigozhin and Wagner are continuing to promote Russia in the areas where they work outside of Russia with protecting oil, gold and diamond projects.

[billbindc]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Taking another stab at this because, well, because it's fun

1.  Putin did not orchestrate this in some way.  There is no scenario that I can imagine where Putin chose this over a host of other possible options.  Putin has never schemed a way into being humiliated, less powerful, and more vulnerable by choice.  Yet that is absolutely what happened.  So for me, any form of any theory that has any active role of Putin orchestrating this in any meaningful way should be put at the very bottom of a very tall pile of possibilities.

2.  There is no way that Prig did this without some buy-in from the FSB, probably MoD, and likely various "elites".  As we just saw, US Intelligence knew this was going to happen so it's a sure bet the FSB did.  Probably even before there was an actual plan in place, just talk.  They should have told Putin, but it seems Putin was caught completely unaware.  Putin getting the info and not doing anything with it because he doubted it is possible, though unlikely given Prig's public comments and obvious military potential.  Putin knowing about it and allowing it to play out is a version of #1 above and should be ruled out for now.

This means:

• at a minimum, FSB was involved even if it was hiding information from Putin for their own agenda.  But I doubt this because Prig would know the FSB would likely know about the plot so he would be unlikely to actually execute it without their cooperation. 
• Prig apparently had immediate access to non-Wagner military assets right from the start and possible coordination with MoD units that could have got in his way.  So it is very likely the MoD had some role in this and it too kept that info from Putin. 
• I find it difficult to believe that high level MoD and FSB officers (which is what would be needed for this) would have acted without some assurances of political cover in case things went sideways.  This means elites that were not happy with Putin but too powerful to be murdered.

3.  Prig was not in danger of losing his life or his money.  His cooperation would be critical to a smooth transition for Wagner personnel and the continuation (if not expansion of) Russia's foreign policy priorities.  Prig had a lot to negotiate with and was likely to come out very well.  He is a mercenary so all the Kremlin would have to do is name the right price and everybody would be happy with the result.

4.  Nobody thinks the war is being fought well, though they don't necessarily agree on the specifics.  What I think they can all agree with, though, is that Putin and his top MoD buddies are largely responsible for things going in the wrong direction.  Whether their expectations for improvement are even remotely realistic is not relevant as long as they think their ideas are better than Putin's.

5.  The players involved all care about living their lives in luxury and with a minimal fear of being murdered, arrested, or Impoverished.  They are all going to cover their own arses, which means none of them can trust each other even if their interests are 100% in alignment and 100% compatible with each other.

6.  Only an insane group would want to be the frontman for all the bad stuff Russia faces now and in the future.  Especially given The Hague is in the picture, possibly even a NATO intervention.  Some smarter ones are probably worried about China.  Which means it's unlikely anybody serious (i.e. not a puppet) would want the job of President.  Plus, Russia is theoretically a democracy and that means elections, which are messy and time consuming.  Suspending the Russian Constitution to skip this step is not a good idea (see next point).

7.  Nobody in Russia's ruling power blocs have any interest in seeing Russia go into civil war.  Even significant fighting that is resolved quickly risks upsetting national stability, which would likely mean any victor would soon be facing insurmountable problems that put their fortunes and lives at risk.  In a really sick and twisted way, the best interests of the Russian people are being upheld by the most selfish, greedy, and ruthless bastards on Earth.  This, BTW, is the same logic that is hopefully going to keep nukes off the table.

 

I'm interested to see if anybody can poke holes in these three points.  To the degree they withstand scrutiny they help rule out a large number of possible scenarios.

 

Here's a scenario that is consistent with all of these things above and the events as they unfolded...

A coup is set up with powerful regime blocs, including high and mid level members of MoD, FSB, and oligarchs.  Their goal is to end/curb Putin's hitherto unchallenged Power Vertical, not to end the regime.  Putin himself is too well guarded, so a sort of Gorbachev scenario is too unpredictable and difficult to make work for them.  Instead, they get Prig on their team to do the dirty work.  But they don't like him or trust him, so it's a transactional deal at best.

On cue Prig does what Prig did.  He's wildly successful.  Maybe more so than the plotters anticipated, but honestly they should not have been surprised.  Coups are usually decided, one way or the other, within a few days.  Otherwise it seems to slip into civil war, which is something they absolutely do not want.  So I think it is safer to presume that things went well enough to plan for the coup plotters to have what they needed from Prig.

With Prig sitting in Rostov and on his way to Moscow with a force that very well could take (or at least cut off) Moscow the real powers behind the coup make an offer to Putin with the following outline:

1. Putin must not run for President in 2024 and further agrees to ensure a candidate of the plotter's choosing succeeds him
2. various powers previously exclusive to Putin are to now be under control of the plotters.  This includes appointments of key personnel
3. in exchange for this Prig is betrayed, Putin remains President for now, then in retirement lives a very rich life provided he keeps to himself

Prig is informed he no longer has partners in Moscow.  He is given an "accept or else" sort of offer:

1. stand down all active forces, call off expanding the military aspect of the coup
2. facilitate the orderly transition of Wagner members to the MoD who are deemed reasonably reliable
3. convince the hardcore Wagner members to go into exile in Belarus.  They will get paid and still serve Russia, but they are to follow orders or else
4. agree to go into exile in Belarus as well in exchange for keeping his life, money, and a lot of his previous Wagner powers.  As long as he plays nice he doesn't get assassinated, which Prig should be worried about because he knows who he is dealing with and that they know everything about him

That's really it.  The coup plotters got what they wanted from Putin without national instability, Prig is left high and dry, and the future of Russia is now decidedly in the hands of the plotters.

Thoughts?

Steve

That pretty much tracks with my take.

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

My initial thought is “wow, this scenario is high risk”.  A bunch of armed troops are hard enough to control at the best of times.  In the middle of a coup/whatever where friend and foe get blurry really fast things can get completely out of control extremely easily.  What was weird about this one as it was unfolding was how little shooting was going on, maybe that was a hint that this was largely a show.  However, if some third party faction/dark lord is in the background pulling all the strings this stunt was really high risk.  To my mind there has to be easier ways to ease Putin out while trying to keep one’s head down.

It may be some time before we get enough information to understand what just happened - let alone who was behind it.  All we do know right now is that an enormous amount of uncertainty has just been injected into the entire Russian enterprise.  Even the sudden ending of this thing created more uncertainty.  Recall that uncertainty is toxic and induces a human reaction, normally driven by fear.  What we do not know is who is fully benefiting from this uncertainty.  But what we do know is that we just witnessed a major fissure widen to a chasm within the Russian macro-social framework.  We have been talking about Russian instability and wear and tear for some time, this has to be a major milestone on the path to system failure.

At a minimum, I do not think the myth of endless Russian iron resolve survived the weekend.  And for those fighting Russia, for those fighting for Russia, the full impacts are yet to be seen.  My sense is that we will need to stop seeing Prig and Wagner as a cause of Russian uncertainty but instead a symptom of a deeper uncertainty that really has the potential to fly out of control at a moments notice.  Russia came within inches of a full blown civil war in the last 72 hours.  They somehow crazy glued a patch to hold it together, for now.  But we and they cannot unsee what just happened.

It's very important to remember that Putin has gone from being a negotiated, finessed arbitrator to an increasingly out of touch and fiat style ruler. That transition, which the war accelerated, made attempting to negotiate with him for the various factions harder. And the costs of that war have created pressures on those factions, between sanctions and economic stresses, that they are looking to address. The intense scapegoating of the FSB and MoD was used by Putin to attempt to balance forces that might oppose him. Instead, it seems to have driven them together.  

Put all of that together and the inevitability of an attempt to redraw the rules become fairly obvious. And now it is clear that the rules can be rewritten. 

[cesmonkey]

Sounds like our leading politicians in the U.S. need to do a better job of explaining why helping Ukraine is important.

https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2023/06/poll-many-americans-support-ukraine-though-some-are-divided-aid/387881/
 

Quote

Poll: Many Americans Support Ukraine, Though Some Are Divided on Aid
Respondents were far more supportive of arming Ukraine once they received information about the value of doing so.

https://www.reaganfoundation.org/reagan-institute/centers/freedom-democracy/reagan-institute-summer-survey/

[billbindc]

5 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Ah yes, the guy with the SS rune tattoos. Fighting the ukronazis...

Assuming he joins Prig in exile, he should be right at home in 'White Russia'.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaminski_Brigade

I've been trying to track down where Utkin ends up in all of this. If he ends up staying in Russia...that will say quite a bit about Putin's position.

[cesmonkey]

 

[billbindc]

3 hours ago, womble said:

Does Prig's (or Utkin's) Thunder Run past Voronezh give Putin more cause/ability to undertake a further mobilisation of the general Russian populace? It's demonstrated what "could happen" if UKR break the current lines, and with the "loss" of chunks of Wagner, there's gonna be personnel holes to fill.

If there were to be a mobilisation wave, with half going straight to the front after a fortnight's Basic, and the rest getting "proper training", would that put UKR onto a tighter clock, with (slightly) stiffer headwinds? Or would it make no difference to the Summer's activities?

It's such a shame that Kadyrov and his TikTok Toy soldiers are so shy. Would have been nice to see them charge into Wagner and both their numbers start ticking down, even if it was only for a day. That said, could they have been instructed to stand clear until the situation resolved a bit more?

I think quite the opposite. Putin now has a Kerensky problem. The more he mobilizes the more he arms groups that have a known propensity to overthrow the government. As someone smart told me...he's in a very Russian pickle.

[DesertFox]

Something for the T-64 fans.

 

 

[akd]

 

[cesmonkey]

I'm enjoying reading some of the more caustic reflections from some of the Russian telegram bloggers.

Below is a sample, Google-translated:
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif/2747

Quote

Our country will never be the same again. The column of Wagnerites did not move along the asphalt - it moved through the hearts of people, cutting society in half. We prayed to God that the enemy would not take advantage of the situation and throw all the resources into battle - there would be almost no chance. 

https://t.me/voenacher/47334

Quote

If the Russian Defense Ministry could effectively suppress the rebellion, it would have done it even when the "rebels and traitors" were in their deployment centers outside the cities. And talking about the “heroic power” in the distance of the outgoing column, and suggesting everyone to fall into “unconsciousness” looks like a mockery. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation is ineffective. And everyone saw it.

https://t.me/lomovkaa/32111

Quote

Aleksey ZHIVOV , political scientist, publicist, on the events of Saturday:

“It is very good that all the parties to this conflict had the wisdom yesterday not to start shedding blood. This is probably the most important thing. The fact that Lukashenka, Dyumin, Putin, Prigozhin were able to agree "This is just a miracle for all of us. But this does not mean that the situation has been completely exhausted. This march of Prigozhin on Moscow revealed a huge number of problems in our statehood."

https://t.me/mig41/27212
 

Quote

In the meantime, we are watching the latest Kiselev and asking ourselves the question: how is it that the "traitor" and "bloody adventurer" calmly drove through half of Russia, and then just as calmly escaped punishment?

https://t.me/starover1/218
 

Quote

Conclusions from yesterday

In my profane opinion, there is no central government in the country, and the country is self-governing by inertia. That is, the central government does not govern the country, but has divided the administration into departments and regions. The rule of law is impossible due to the ignorance of laws by the central government, as a result, the judicial system is actually paralyzed. There is an imbalance and decentralization of the country, an uncontrolled influx of migrants, the destruction of a single legal field, the strengthening of self-government of the regions, the strengthening of crime, primarily criminal ethnic groups from migrants.

Yesterday's events showed preparations for the seizure of central power by criminals. A criminal whose weapons are provided outside the law with the tacit consent of the country's leadership.

This is our possible future...

 

[sburke]

5 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

I'm enjoying reading some of the more caustic reflections from some of the Russian telegram bloggers.

Below is a sample, Google-translated:
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif/2747

https://t.me/voenacher/47334

https://t.me/lomovkaa/32111

https://t.me/mig41/27212
 

https://t.me/starover1/218
 

 

This was my favorite line " the strengthening of crime, primarily criminal ethnic groups from migrants"

 

Umm your primary criminal ethnic group is your freakin gov't.  

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

Somehow we can agree with the propagandists, it is said there is a first time for every thing.

 

This is an example of why I categorically reject any notion that Putin had anything to do with Wagner's moves.  His own propagandists are forced to admit that both Putin and the Russia as a state are seen as weak by both friends and enemies around the world.  In 24 hours Putin lost what little remained of his and his regime's credibility both at home and abroad.  Poof, gone and no possibility of it coming back.

Steve

[sburke]

what a difference a day makes.  I can actually keep up with this thread today..  

[Battlefront.com]

45 minutes ago, akd said:

 

I have found Galeev to be a very bad predictor of what is to come.  He often correctly identifies things to watch and what the variables may be, but then he... I dunno... jumps to something that isn't supported by what he just outlined.

You do NOT rehearse a coup because the regime will lock down as many of the identified problems as possible.  Which means the second time around will need to be significantly different than the first time, which negates the concept of "rehearsal".

You may wish to test some theories, but you'd do it on a small scale.  Like testing the police response time to a particular bank you wish to rob.  Call in a bomb threat or something, watch what happens, then plan accordingly.  What you do not do is burst into the bank, take it over, have the vault open, then walk away without taking anything.

In fact, the Russian Liberation activities gave any Moscow plotters all the information they needed about Russia's ability to handle internal security.  No need to stick their necks out for redundant knowledge.

At best Galeev is probably correct that there will be another grab for power if there isn't a hidden winner as I think there is.  However, whatever power grab might happen in the future, it likely won't look anything like this because there will be no Wagner or equivalent because it effectively doesn't exist any more and NOBODY will be stupid enough another PMC to be formed.  In fact, I expect we'll see many burgeoning PMCs, like GAZPROM, seriously curtailed in the very near future.

Steve

[kraze]

Another thing this Prig mess has exposed is how BS the argument of russian "opposition" about "state propaganda" is - that they use to excuse their terminal impotency.

Putin called Prig a terrorist and a criminal. State media was trashing him all day.

And yet in Rostov crowds were greeting him as a warhero and making selfies en masse, with a guy that cuts heads off - in a state, where you are supposedly arrested for retweets.

No russian cares about "state propaganda" - they all know how things really are, they know about the genocide of Ukrainians just like they know that Russia is losing the war and they blame putin for it.

Which is how Prig happened in the first place.

So when you repost Khodorkovsky, Navalny, Kasparov or any other cuckold from their crowd - remember this.

[FancyCat]

Interesting perspective.

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

It's very important to remember that Putin has gone from being a negotiated, finessed arbitrator to an increasingly out of touch and fiat style ruler. That transition, which the war accelerated, made attempting to negotiate with him for the various factions harder. And the costs of that war have created pressures on those factions, between sanctions and economic stresses, that they are looking to address. The intense scapegoating of the FSB and MoD was used by Putin to attempt to balance forces that might oppose him. Instead, it seems to have driven them together.  

Put all of that together and the inevitability of an attempt to redraw the rules become fairly obvious. And now it is clear that the rules can be rewritten. 

Exactly.  And let's not forget about all the oligarchs that decided to slaughter their families and then kill themselves (yeah, right).  That was Putin's message that there's no room for negotiations with him like the old days.  New rules set by him required others to adjust how they play the game.

As for The_Capt's statement that it was "high stakes", does anybody here think that Russia's survival as a cohesive state is questionable and that each passing day is less likely?  "Desperate times call for desperate measures".

Historical example... the July 44 bomb plot against Hitler happened as a result of colossal military losses and Hitler standing in the way of alternative strategies at a time when they were obviously needed.  The coup against Mussolini was done for similar reasons.  See any similarities to where Russia is today?

• Normandy was the trigger for the attempt to oust Hitler

• Sicily was the trigger for the attempt to oust Mussolini

• Zaporizhzhia was the trigger to undermine Putin?

Steve

[akd]

18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I have found Galeev to be a very bad predictor of what is to come.  He often correctly identifies things to watch and what the variables may be, but then he... I dunno... jumps to something that isn't supported by what he just outlined.

You do NOT rehearse a coup because the regime will lock down as many of the identified problems as possible.  Which means the second time around will need to be significantly different than the first time, which negates the concept of "rehearsal".

You may wish to test some theories, but you'd do it on a small scale.  Like testing the police response time to a particular bank you wish to rob.  Call in a bomb threat or something, watch what happens, then plan accordingly.  What you do not do is burst into the bank, take it over, have the vault open, then walk away without taking anything.

In fact, the Russian Liberation activities gave any Moscow plotters all the information they needed about Russia's ability to handle internal security.  No need to stick their necks out for redundant knowledge.

At best Galeev is probably correct that there will be another grab for power if there isn't a hidden winner as I think there is.  However, whatever power grab might happen in the future, it likely won't look anything like this because there will be no Wagner or equivalent because it effectively doesn't exist any more and NOBODY will be stupid enough another PMC to be formed.  In fact, I expect we'll see many burgeoning PMCs, like GAZPROM, seriously curtailed in the very near future.

Steve

I do not think Galeev means literal rehearsal here.