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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Theoretically yes.  That and the intellectual class.  Let's put it this way... it certainly isn't helpful to Putin that Khodorkovsky is putting his voice behind Prig.

Steve

It was expected to be frank...but he isn't danger for Putin by himself. Long ago liberals put a cross on him, and he stop to represent even some other oligarchs.

2 hours ago, kraze said:

I agree with you here. This is Russia. Without spilling a lot of blood nothing ever moves there.

And note that even GKCHP coup was way more violent than this, with tanks firing on parliament.

Here it looks like a show of force, flexing - "see, I have muscle - so give me stuff".

After all if Prigozhin is willing to negotiate - that's not really a coup isn't it.

I have the same feeling that all will end in "Good Tsar, bad boyars" kind of reconcilliation with some minmal bloodshed. On the other side, Putin may misjudge the situation, which is changing by hour now, and do some unpredictable moves like keeping too tigh to MoD.

 

And another important potential actor...

 

Edited by Beleg85
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2 hours ago, Grigb said:

In general, regarding helicopters.
Two Mi-8mtpr were shot down. Electronic warfare helicopters. A pair flew. The crews are alive.

The Mi-35 was also shot down. Whether he worked on the column, I do not know. The crew is alive.

Due to the fact that the Wagner column is traveling along the M4 highway mixed with civilian vehicles, helicopters obviously cannot work.
The highway is now closed. [Civilian] Cars are being removed.

Pretty impressive feat of shooting down 3 helis with no casaulties...unless they targeted them with machine guns and simply forced to land, I would expect to see more victims...

Ok, situation normal...:

 

Edited by Beleg85
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12:00

Claim that previous video of firefight is from Boguchar (49°57′N 40°33′E)

12:08

RU Nat mood shifting that this is mutiny but not against Putin but against Shoigu.

12:13

https://t.me/rian_ru/206788

RIA News

Don Ural and Crime highways are closed in Moscow region

12:15

https://t.me/MishaDonbass/965

Claim pro-ru Donets population is in shock

https://t.me/dva_majors/18905

Video from Rostov at HQ - there are armed people and vehicles

Situation getting more tense due to rumors of Kadyrovci move to disarm Wagnerites

12:19

https://t.me/bumaznayaZmeya/33230

Prig new announcement - Putin is wrong about treason. We are right, they are wrong. We are against corruption. [RU MOD] Bureaucrats do not give shells to troops and now they are killing civilians [trying to hit us].  Anyone who is with them is scum.

12:25

Looks lie RU gov is trying to block Telegram in some Ru areas

https://t.me/ChDambiev/24204

Videos - claim Wagnerites column (aprox 4 000 men) passed Voronezh [heading toward Moscow]

12:27

https://t.me/grohot_gr/11140

Claim - There is public alarm going of at Voronezh

https://t.me/grohot_gr/11141

Oil depot is on fire

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17 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

That seems out of step with the rhetoric so far.  Wagner say they are not interfering with the invasion of Ukraine,  and have shot down aircraft that were targeting them. But an An-26 is a transport aircraft,  so a) it is no immediate threat, and b) were they really that sure that it was carrying equipment or troops that were being deployed against Wagner? 

Just seems to me that shooting down transport aircraft is,  at first glance,  at odds with what Prig says he is doing. 

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5 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

That seems out of step with the rhetoric so far.  Wagner say they are not interfering with the invasion of Ukraine,  and have shot down aircraft that were targeting them. But an An-26 is a transport aircraft,  so a) it is no immediate threat, and b) were they really that sure that it was carrying equipment or troops that were being deployed against Wagner? 

Just seems to me that shooting down transport aircraft is,  at first glance,  at odds with what Prig says he is doing. 

Wagner would never lie.

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12:30

https://telesco.pe/bolshiepushki/4397

Claim - another Wagnerite units is crossing the border

12:39

https://t.me/dva_majors/18924

Claim - Video Tanks are moving toward Moscow [probably RU MOD]. Tanks in Moscow is a very sensitive topic for RU.

12:40

https://t.me/horevica/12823

Claim Voronezh Oil depot was attacked by KA-52

12:42

https://t.me/elite_rezerve/21856

Claim exchange rate for dollar 1 to 90, Euro 1 to 100 (exchange rate with three digits  is very sensitive topic for RU)

12:46

RU Nats are discussing that both Prig and Putin live in their own realities

12:50

https://t.me/juchkovsky/3705

Claim  that kadirovci indeed started to move toward Rostov. Not very smart move for Kremlin

.https://t.me/natalia_maximus_ZOV/17528

Claim - Rostov support Wagnerites. They help Wagnerites with water nad food

 

I am off for some time

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If this lasts longer without Wagner or Putin winning, both sides will have to start involving forces in Ukraine, plenty of whom may be sympathetic to Wagner and probably plenty loyal to Putin. Spanish civil war vibes, where both sides ferry in loyal troops, Africa for Wagner, Syria for Putin, and how long before units in Russia start shooting each other? Christ.

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1 minute ago, FancyCat said:

If this lasts longer without Wagner or Putin winning, both sides will have to start involving forces in Ukraine, plenty of whom may be sympathetic to Wagner and probably plenty loyal to Putin. Spanish civil war vibes, where both sides ferry in loyal troops, Africa for Wagner, Syria for Putin, and how long before units in Russia start shooting each other? Christ.

Yup, from UA perspective the best outcome is this thing dragging on long enough so that RU army units in Ukraine have to be involved. There are some reports about significant progress happening in Bakhmut already, but I think something big is going to happen at the southern front very soon.
Another thought - what Prig army is doing at the moment seems like the perfect environment for using Battalion Tactical Groups, doesn't it?

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Just now, Beleg85 said:

@Grigb thanks for reportng, btw. Do you happen to know if Wagner still controlled some of his own airforce?

(I'm not grigb but...) no idea on that,  but Wagner has apparently taken control of three or more airfields (at Rostov, Voronezh and Millerovo), so they may well have an airforce now.

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4 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

@Grigb thanks for reportng, btw. Do you happen to know if Wagner still controlled some of his own airforce?

Fighterbomber claims Wagner is boarding choppers to make sure they do not target Wagner positions but overall personel do not know how to interact as no side has given specific hostile orders

Edited by Kraft
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