How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Harmon Rabb]

 Neat clip of AFU HMMWVs or Humvees as most people say in action.

[Kinophile]

+44 arty systems destroyed! I've gotta plot this out... 

[DesertFox]

11 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

They must have hit it hard.  Likely created load restrictions that forced the backup.

I still don't get why UAF hasn't nixxed the rail bridges from Crimea to Kherson and Melitopol so far. Maybe still not the correct timing for max effect? We will see.

Edited June 23, 2023 by DesertFox

[Teufel]

57 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The sudden "improvement" is much more likely the end result of months of putting things into place in order to support the UA push.

No doubt such may be the case, and I agree that it is certainly one aspect of the plan before the offensive. One very important one, much more so than what I speculated might also be happening. Again, the missing pieces here is the timing. As I pointed out, Russian C&C is centralized like no other and thus whereabouts of Generals and their schedules is probably accessible on “need to know basis” to those involved.

Could it been stored in some from the outside accessible calendar? Chances are in low one digit percentage of probability but certainly not zero chance. But these are Russians, as in culture not nationality, they have different approach to information than the West has.

Now I am really generalizing on group level and this is unfair but let me put it this way - Russians are by tradition, and rightly so, paranoid of information reaching places you don’t want it reach. From the citizens sweeping the streets to those at the very top of the pyramid. It’s culture that since the Tsars controlled their subjects through among them intel from the average citizen.

Add big egos, self serving agendas, corruption, and don’t forget the ongoing blame game to the mix at the MoD. With the grand prize of premature unnatural deaths rewarded to the losers of such games. Those at the very top, well they can’t afford to lose this game so they’ll do anything not to.

Can share the detailed story of grandfather some other time. But this man went missing for 8 months because he during drunken row hurled some poorly chosen words against the system. According to own accounts he was arrested and brought before the court within one hour of incident occurring. Next day he was on his way to barren island to be reminded of the greatness of the system he had the wrong opinion about. The same Sovjet system the Russians enjoyed for approximately the same duration we did.

Enemy of the state for the rest of his life, so were his children, grandchildren and extended family. Trust me when I say, nothing has changed in this system. To quote my father, “those at the top changed the color of their uniforms, they didn’t embrace change in their hearts”.

Edited June 23, 2023 by Teufel

[Kinophile]

I would not be in the least surprised if Prigozhin was feeding info to ZSU. A key metric will be who succeeds the snotted HVTs.

If we start hearing of those units being lead by Wagner sympathetisers that would be a significant development. 

Also,  there is the mafia state angle,  as always -  **** with me and the cops (UKR) will get a text with two Long strings of numbers. Go on. Remember Col.  Dimitri?  Or as we call him now,  Col. Strawberry Jam? 

The possibility of this would give any Russian commander pause,  if ordered to disarm/interfere with Wagner. 

Win-Win for ZSU and Prig. Russian MoD is weakened,  Wagner remains inviolate and unblamed.  Battlefield failures are simply due to ****ty RUS MoD execution of the war in general and godawful opsec in particular. 

That last point re comms is absolutely a factor in the current crop of decaps. 

Edited June 23, 2023 by Kinophile

[billbindc]

33 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Totally true.  As to C4ISR, well as a total hypothetical - if western cyber has managed to penetrate an Russian network that yields them hi resolution LOCSTATS on RA HVT, they may have laid in wait for the UA counter-offensive for months.  The sudden "improvement" is much more likely the end result of months of putting things into place in order to support the UA push.

Any information trickling out of Russian MoD could be a leak, could be a pin-prick, could be a tick, could be a mole.  My best advice is to keep an eye on all of them.  

It's important to note that any intelligence breakthrough that led to knowing the when/where/elimination of important Russian assets would not be something you would dole out in penny packets. There would be too much of a risk that the opponent would be able to change operationally to counteract the advantage before the advantage was most useful. The best roll out would be all at once while he was under the most pressure...i.e. while trying to fend off a counter offensive. We won't know for a decade or more for certain but I don't think Prigozhin would expose himself that obviously given the tentative nature of his relationship to windows and gravity at the moment. 

[Harmon Rabb]

Think this Sacks character was discussed here before. Well if anyone wanted to know how Elon really felt about this war, here it is.

I may buy an electric vehicle one day, but it will definitely not be a Tesla.

[The_Capt]

11 minutes ago, billbindc said:

It's important to note that any intelligence breakthrough that led to knowing the when/where/elimination of important Russian assets would not be something you would dole out in penny packets. There would be too much of a risk that the opponent would be able to change operationally to counteract the advantage before the advantage was most useful. The best roll out would be all at once while he was under the most pressure...i.e. while trying to fend off a counter offensive. We won't know for a decade or more for certain but I don't think Prigozhin would expose himself that obviously given the tentative nature of his relationship to windows and gravity at the moment. 

This goes a long way to explaining timing.  It is the shock value to RA C2 in a short period of time.  Clipping RA generals in onesies and twosies does not have the same impact as a bunch all at once, particularly if you are supporting a counter-offensive.

As to Russian info security.  Well first off they have been leaking like an incontinent horse this entire war.  Second, I do not think people have a full appreciation of western ISR being pointed at this problem.  Finding an RA general is not easy but people simply give off too much data to hide well in this day and age.  That general has a driver, wife, mistress whatever and they all establish a pattern around the person.  Short of the general camo-ing up and hiding in a hole, finding them is not what it once was.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/23/everything-is-still-ahead-inside-a-secret-military-base-with-top-ukraine-general

Ukraine

 

‘Everything is still ahead’: inside a secret military base with top Ukraine general

Exclusive: Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi details his experience of war and suggests counteroffensive is just gearing up

 

Long, and good.

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

This goes a long way to explaining timing.  It is the shock value to RA C2 in a short period of time.  Clipping RA generals in onesies and twosies does not have the same impact as a bunch all at once, particularly if you are supporting a counter-offensive.

As to Russian info security.  Well first off they have been leaking like an incontinent horse this entire war.  Second, I do not think people have a full appreciation of western ISR being pointed at this problem.  Finding an RA general is not easy but people simply give off too much data to hide well in this day and age.  That general has a driver, wife, mistress whatever and they all establish a pattern around the person.  Short of the general camo-ing up and hiding in a hole, finding them is not what it once was.

And they have only had Storm Shadow for what, a month? And their were some targets with huge blinking kill me signs like that ammo dump on the the railway just north of Crimea at the front of the list.

[Seedorf81]

Looks to me you're not the only one that is pondering about the whereabouts  of those Ukrainian troops.

I am, despite all the explanations and all the Russian defense-tenacity and all the historic comparisons, a tiny bit surprised and perhaps even a little bit disappointed that there isn't more BIG OFFENSIVE news. But ..

WHAT IF..

What if the Ukrainians had their big push planned west of the Khakovka dam and, by sheer luck, through clever intel or stupidity, the Russians blew that just before the Ukrainian attack started?

Wouldn't that force the Ukrainians to redeploy a lot of troops and (partially) re-plan that offensive? And cause a delay that, at least for a part, could explain the absence of the "bigger things" that we probably are all waiting for?

(BTW: I don't know why, but I have a gut-feeling that in a week or two things will really start to move.

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

@Haiduk et al, is this accurate?

4/89 mechanized infantry brigades? 

Eighty nine?

(..)) 

   

Edited June 23, 2023 by Seedorf81
WTH? Cant get the quote on top of reply.

[Vanir Ausf B]

RE: Prigozhin, Girkin is pissed.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672239980347785216

 

[akd]

Defense of Position Granite cont.:

 

[Seedorf81]

Quote needs to be above previous reply, ofcourse, sorry about that.

 

[Teufel]

26 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

As to Russian info security.  Well first off they have been leaking like an incontinent horse this entire war.  Second, I do not think people have a full appreciation of western ISR being pointed at this problem.  Finding an RA general is not easy but people simply give off too much data to hide well in this day and age.  That general has a driver, wife, mistress whatever and they all establish a pattern around the person.  Short of the general camo-ing up and hiding in a hole, finding them is not what it once was.

Not going to dwell on this discussion for much longer as there is much more interesting stuff being posted.

Totally agree that intelligence capabilities have changed, which changes the playing field compared to say 30 years ago. The system those capabilities are directed has largely remained the same. The factors mentioned I would say are from Western perspective that we may extrapolate assuming it’s similar elsewhere.

Even if the mistress of the General knew where he was going, she’d probably lack channels to communicate intel. Particularly doing so without being discovered, Russian MoD may be committing collective suicide as you point out. But the FSB hasn’t lost a step from being on par with Western intelligence agencies. Speaking of the Western scenario, I wouldn’t be surprised if that mistress was second coming of Mata Hari herself. Due to endemic paranoia that I mentioned earlier that is not as likely behind enemy lines.

Will the same FSB find the sources at MoD? If requested they do it within hours not days, hence my point of the Devil hiding in plain sight. Not doing very good job at that but doesn’t take away from possible involvement. Man may have nothing to lose as deadline for PMC signing with MoD is approaching.

When at zero he got nothing to lose, and admitting defeat to himself is very liberating feeling. Wrecking crew time before he goes down, or escapes to Africa to be hunted down by FSB.

Edited June 23, 2023 by Teufel

[Kinophile]

I'm just going to bang my own gong here and point out that ref the mines /thermal imaging, I was well on-point last September... 

Got poo-pooed but to me it was just a question of the sensitivity of the detection equipment. 

[sross112]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

There's no political angle to Prigozhin's statements that I can suss out. He's burning bridges with his FSB heavy supports and he's effectively saying the war is lost and the boss is either deluded or too incompetent to know that he's being lied to. It's that rarest of Russian and Prigozhin statements...an actual cri de couer. 

I think we are at the crisis point and Prigozhin is honestly terrified of what will happen when the moment breaks.  

Just my thoughts. I think Prig is working to save Putin and in doing so creating further opportunity for himself. He is telling the people that Putin was lied to by the FSB and MOD. This gives Putin the out that he needs. When stuff is terminally sideways Putin can ruthlessly purge the MOD and any rogue FSB elements left as well as anyone else he wants to tie to the conspiracy. Then he can pull what is left of the RA back into Russia and announce how he was misled and fooled by the bad actors he just had shot against the Kremlin walls. How they were responsible and did it because of whatever reason (greed, hate, or even a planned military failure that would dethrone him) and that he figured it out and is now, once again, saving the Russian people from a horrible mistake. 

Prig and Kadryov are close supporters of Putin and both have been naysaying the MOD for awhile now. My vote for the main scape goat is the MOD with a splash of FSB. I could see this all happening as a play to save Crimea, so possibly this summer. Putin announces withdrawal from Donetsk and Luhansk as well as any other occupied territories, except Crimea. He will use all his tankies to put pressure on the west and therefore Ukraine to cease hostilities. If we see an uptick in the propaganda when the RA really starts losing it will be a good sign that something along these lines is being prepared. 

His hopes are that the Russian people will believe his lies and he will remain in power, his well funded supporters in the west will parrot his lies and have a cooling affect on Ukraine, and that his apology for the schemes of others, not him, will allow the war to end with Crimea still Russian. 

So who strikes first? Putin or the MOD? The MOD have to realize they are the in the cross hairs and if they don't act first it will be all over. Will it happen after the first large scale collapse, or will it be when the RA has totally collapsed? 

Edited June 23, 2023 by sross112

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Teufel said:

Not going to dwell on this discussion for much longer as there is much more interesting stuff being posted.

Totally agree that intelligence capabilities have changed, which changes the playing field compared to say 30 years ago. The system those capabilities are directed has largely remained the same. The factors mentioned I would say are from Western perspective that we may extrapolate assuming it’s similar elsewhere.

Even if the mistress of the General knew where he was going, she’d probably lack channels to communicate intel. Particularly doing so without being discovered, Russian MoD may be committing collective suicide as you point out. But the FSB hasn’t lost a step from being on par with Western intelligence agencies. Secondly, she do it with her life at stake, in the Western scenario, I wouldn’t be surprised if that mistress was second coming of Mata Hari herself.

Will the same FSB find the sources at MoD? If requested they do it within hours not days, hence my point of the Devil hiding in plain sight. Not doing very good job at that but doesn’t take away from possible involvement. Man may have nothing to lose as deadline for PMC signing with MoD is approaching.

When at zero he got nothing to lose, and admitting defeat to himself is very liberating feeling. Wrecking crew time before he goes down, or escapes to Africa to be hunted down by FSB.

It is not the mistress "knowing and telling" on the general. It is that on Tues she went to the love nest, which is weird because normally it is on Wed.  Then on Thurs the driver had to in and get maintenance done on the car, which is off schedule.  Then he picked up the cigarettes the general really likes that they cannot get in theatre.  Then the generals EA got picked up telling Mom he is missing dinner on Sun.

So what does that tell us?  Well the general is moving off-schedule.  Now link that into another few thousand data points with AI pattern recognition support and finding where that general is going doesn't take Prig/MoD dropping a dime...it is the simple fact that we have pointed so many assets and architecture at the problem. We save em up for multiple HVT strikes in a short period to cause shock within the RA C2 system - and as you note, suspicion.  It really is just part of larger strategic shaping campaign that the UA and west have likely been conducting for months over the winter.

None of this disproves the theory that Prig is off the leash, or other elements of Russian MoD are trying to do some cleaning.  I suspect we have intel pictures on that as well.  US/western intel has not been this energized since the Cold War - even GWOT likely did not get this level of density and unlike terrorists, RA assets are a lot harder to hide. And all that ISR is sitting on 21st century technology.  We have seen evidence of this before during the wave of RA leadership strikes last summer leading into the Fall Offensive.

[DesertFox]

I guess we have another "interesting" night ahead. I hope UAF can use their thermals to their favor.

 

 

Edited June 23, 2023 by DesertFox

[sburke]

38 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

Looks to me you're not the only one that is pondering about the whereabouts  of those Ukrainian troops.

I am, despite all the explanations and all the Russian defense-tenacity and all the historic comparisons, a tiny bit surprised and perhaps even a little bit disappointed that there isn't more BIG OFFENSIVE news. But ..

I think we all need to be a bit more patient.  My expectation is the UA is still in the preparatory phase.  Their goal right now seems to be to degrade Russian capabilities particularly arty before they push to get through the main defensive belts.  Between hitting the arty  units via CB, hitting the ammo dumps and the supply routes, the UA seems to be methodically preparing to crack the Russian lines while protecting their own units as much as possible.

[chrisl]

46 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

This goes a long way to explaining timing.  It is the shock value to RA C2 in a short period of time.  Clipping RA generals in onesies and twosies does not have the same impact as a bunch all at once, particularly if you are supporting a counter-offensive.

As to Russian info security.  Well first off they have been leaking like an incontinent horse this entire war.  Second, I do not think people have a full appreciation of western ISR being pointed at this problem.  Finding an RA general is not easy but people simply give off too much data to hide well in this day and age.  That general has a driver, wife, mistress whatever and they all establish a pattern around the person.  Short of the general camo-ing up and hiding in a hole, finding them is not what it once was.

Not to mention that in order to do the things that a general does, you have to radiate signal in one form or another like a supernova.  You can do it as electromagnetic signal or you can do it as mechanical signal (runners/drivers/etc), but there aren't going to be enough shielded wires/fibers going to the front to keep it all hidden in tubes.  With half the world's ISR of all flavors pointed at Ukraine, that's going to show up on somebody's activity map and generate a phone call.

[Teufel]

48 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

I'm just going to bang my own gong here and point out that ref the mines /thermal imaging, I was well on-point last September... 

Got poo-pooed but to me it was just a question of the sensitivity of the detection equipment. 

Followed discussions while back and we can’t know for sure what type of material of construction these particular mines are. Most likely PMA-2 rather than the old TM-series models, also the mines will show clear differences in heat signatures in relation to the ground they placed in.

The_Capt pointed out depth being factor and sure is, buried deep enough the heat transfer will not occur although very hot ambient temperatures. Direct sunlight will not be factor. Timing of imaging is then not important (1h after sunset) as soil has poor specific heating capacity, approximately 5x lower than water. Dry soil thus retains heat to lesser extent and cools faster with lower radiation of energy when air temp starts to drop than wet soils. The same is not true for solid plastics even less for metals, containing zero water, their properties depend only on subunits (and color of course but that is for heat transfer not specific heating capacity).

Most common plastics have heating capacities 5-10x that of soil, retaining higher levels of energy per volume unit. They will also radiate heat stronger than soil if surrounding temperature drops quickly. This is no attempt of physics lectures and will leave it at this. Rather input on the phenomenon why thermal imaging may work in practice. But as The_Capt said, can't be isolated by soil as the poor heating capacity will rather function as isolation than enable heating of the mine. So not universal method for all scenarios.

Regardless of reason the fact that it is possible to detect by simple available means such as thermal imaging from drones is significant discovery. Not just for the ongoing conflict but even more so for what comes afterwards. De-mining Eastern Ukraine will be tall task with with any given method. This for me is one of those moments of epiphany when seeing really smart applications of cheap standard equipment. 

Regardless if was on purpose or by chance the discovery is nothing short of ingenious. Ukrainians once again show examples of simple, cheap but very effective methods of making difficult tasks much easier. No silver bullet to the mine problem but rather new tool to add for current and future challenges involving mines. Let’s see if it’s one off or if they can map other regions with more clay or slit also. Very interesting nevertheless.

Edited June 23, 2023 by Teufel

[billbindc]

59 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

It is not the mistress "knowing and telling" on the general. It is that on Tues she went to the love nest, which is weird because normally it is on Wed.  Then on Thurs the driver had to in and get maintenance done on the car, which is off schedule.  Then he picked up the cigarettes the general really likes that they cannot get in theatre.  Then the generals EA got picked up telling Mom he is missing dinner on Sun.

So what does that tell us?  Well the general is moving off-schedule.  Now link that into another few thousand data points with AI pattern recognition support and finding where that general is going doesn't take Prig/MoD dropping a dime...it is the simple fact that we have pointed so many assets and architecture at the problem. We save em up for multiple HVT strikes in a short period to cause shock within the RA C2 system - and as you note, suspicion.  It really is just part of larger strategic shaping campaign that the UA and west have likely been conducting for months over the winter.

None of this disproves the theory that Prig is off the leash, or other elements of Russian MoD are trying to do some cleaning.  I suspect we have intel pictures on that as well.  US/western intel has not been this energized since the Cold War - even GWOT likely did not get this level of density and unlike terrorists, RA assets are a lot harder to hide. And all that ISR is sitting on 21st century technology.  We have seen evidence of this before during the wave of RA leadership strikes last summer leading into the Fall Offensive.

Yep. The ISR application in the GWOT was against an adversary that could continue it's level of operations even when it went off grid almost completely. That's the core strength of a low tech, wide spread insurgency. Russia is playing in a completely different game. It must organize very large forces, logistical trains, GLOC's etc. That simply requires the mass generation of sigint and satellite product that can be analyzed in a globally meaningful way. The grey zone days are over. 

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

The grey zone days are over.

Not quite ready to call that.  However, why Russia abandoned its successes in GZ/Hybrid warfare and decided to "go loud" baffles me to this day. 

I mean lets say in an alt universe they pulled it all off.  Ukraine falls, they occupy the country...how does this make things better?  Finland and Sweden still running to NATO.  NATO doubling down on Baltics (FFS, Putin managed to get Canadian tanks back in Europe...under a freakin Liberal government no less!) and securing heavy defence spending.  We likely would have gotten all in on "support to Ukrainian resistance" as an insurgency from hell with safe havens all over the place except Belarus went to town.

I am sure from inside the dark, warm and smelly place within the Kremlin there was a vision of victory here but this one has to go down as one of the worst strategic mis-steps of the last 100 years.  Actually when you look at those 100 years, quite a crappy batting average by Russia overall wrt strategic decisions.

Edited June 23, 2023 by The_Capt

[Haiduk]

Born for Vietnam or Cold War... It bided own time