How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_MonkeyKing]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think the DOD uses the same accounting firms that Hollywood uses when they want to make a film lose money, despite being wildly profitable.  Forest Gump is often cited as the poster child of this sort of "creative accounting", because although the movie earned well over 10x what it cost to make the film, on paper it lost money.  Here's a good article on it.

https://www.sporcle.com/blog/2021/08/what-is-hollywood-accounting-the-forrest-gump-sequel/

Steve

Steve

 

 

That clears it up. Strange that they choose to call it an "error". 

The US is moving from the most strict way of counting the amount to the loosest. From replacement capacity cost to the equipment's value on the accounting books.

[The_MonkeyKing]

more satellite defense line analysis:

 

[DesertFox]

Sniper work. Just shows the importance of using thermals.

 

 

[The_Capt]

6 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

What the is going on here? 

There are many ways to count the aid value sums. Write-off value on the accounting books, what it cost when it was new, or the cost to replace the given capability. 

Now the US is changing how it calculates the value. At the start did the US want to exaggerate the aid given for some reason and now thanks to US internal politics they hope to avoid going to legislative to increase the total aid budget? So they start counting in the most "cheap" way.

In my country, it would be a very big thing when tens of billions of money's appear or disappear from anything government related.

 

[cyrano01]

19 hours ago, sburke said:

I think at one time that was how the Harrier was expected to be used.

That was certainly my memory of the mid-80s, some interesting footage here, more CMCW than CMBS though.

 

I'm not sure there is anything in the current NATO armoury designed to operate similarly though, or at leat nothing that might be sent to Ukraine (can;t see the STOVL F35s being handed out).

 

[Lethaface]

3 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

 

That clears it up. Strange that they choose to call it an "error". 

The US is moving from the most strict way of counting the amount to the loosest. From replacement capacity cost to the equipment's value on the accounting books.

'Creative bookkeeping' for the political reasons you stated earlier I guess.

Although I agree from an accounting pov that the value of things send should be calculated using the actual value those things where in the books; not for the value the 'replacements' (which might be not 'same') are being ordered. 

If you donate a car to charity and then deduct the replacement value off your yearly taxes, the tax service won't agree. 

[cesmonkey]

Russian telegrammer Rybar says:

 

[cesmonkey]

Ukraine's deputy minister of defense, Hanna Maliar, says:
https://t.me/annamaliar/864
 

Quote

The Defense Forces of Ukraine continue offensive operations in the Melitopol and Berdyan areas. During the past day, they had partial success, they consolidated at the achieved boundaries and leveled the front line.

In the east, our defenders continue to restrain the large-scale offensive of Russian troops in the Lyman and Bakhmut directions. Particularly heavy fighting continues in the Lymansky direction in the Yampolivka and Serebryansk forestry districts of the Donetsk region. In the direction of Bilogorivka-Shypylivka, our troops conducted offensive actions and had partial success. Now they are fixed at the achieved boundaries.

The EAST remains the main direction of the enemy's offensive. The goal is to reach the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Near Bakhmut, the situation is unchanged, several combat clashes take place every day, the line is stable.

In general, in the east, our troops are firmly holding their positions, repelling constant enemy attacks and inflicting maximum losses on the occupier.

 

[Harmon Rabb]

I know Latvia's military does not have many helicopters. But they still try to help however they can.

[sburke]

6 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

That clears it up. Strange that they choose to call it an "error". 

The US is moving from the most strict way of counting the amount to the loosest. From replacement capacity cost to the equipment's value on the accounting books.

Well thank god they didn't set the value of what backing Ukraine is truly worth... PRICELESS.

[dan/california]

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Lethaface said:

'Creative bookkeeping' for the political reasons you stated earlier I guess.

Although I agree from an accounting pov that the value of things send should be calculated using the actual value those things where in the books; not for the value the 'replacements' (which might be not 'same') are being ordered. 

If you donate a car to charity and then deduct the replacement value off your yearly taxes, the tax service won't agree. 

Correct.  In accounting terms an asset is depreciated over time according to a schedule.  At the end of the schedule the asset has no value from an accounting standpoint.  If the item is sold the gain/loss is the difference between price paid and the current depreciated value.  IIRC you can elect to NOT depreciate an asset, at which point the gain/loss is based on the original booked value.  Nobody does that as a matter of routine, though, as it is not likely to benefit the taxpayer.

The key thing is that once an asset is depreciated then it is depreciated.  You can NOT use the original value for any accounting activity, including as collateral on loans, insurance, or anything else that concerns the value of that asset to the holder of it.

I am not an accountant, therefore I might have missed nuances, but there could be no "error" at the Pentagon about this.  Either they are routinely using fraudulent accounting practices to "cook the books", and decided to correct it for this one purpose, or someone indeed made a major and fundamental mistake.  If it was the latter, then there's probably a room full of accountants that need to be fired and prevented from ever handling books ever again.  Then again, accountants that cook the books should also be fired and prevented from ever handling books ever again

This is a scandal in the making, but I'm sure Congress has more important things to do like fight over gender affirming healthcare.  Grr.

Steve

[billbindc]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Correct.  In accounting terms an asset is depreciated over time according to a schedule.  At the end of the schedule the asset has no value from an accounting standpoint.  If the item is sold the gain/loss is the difference between price paid and the current depreciated value.  IIRC you can elect to NOT depreciate an asset, at which point the gain/loss is based on the original booked value.  Nobody does that as a matter of routine, though, as it is not likely to benefit the taxpayer.

The key thing is that once an asset is depreciated then it is depreciated.  You can NOT use the original value for any accounting activity, including as collateral on loans, insurance, or anything else that concerns the value of that asset to the holder of it.

I am not an accountant, therefore I might have missed nuances, but there could be no "error" at the Pentagon about this.  Either they are routinely using fraudulent accounting practices to "cook the books", and decided to correct it for this one purpose, or someone indeed made a major and fundamental mistake.  If it was the latter, then there's probably a room full of accountants that need to be fired and prevented from ever handling books ever again.  Then again, accountants that cook the books should also be fired and prevented from ever handling books ever again

This is a scandal in the making, but I'm sure Congress has more important things to do like fight over gender affirming healthcare.  Grr.

Steve

Pentagon accounting is infamous for absurd error and no significant accountability. That this issue was corrected is entirely down to the fact that appropriations for Ukraine are going to get tougher so the White House is looking carefully at any place where funding can be made more efficient.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

Russian telegrammer Rybar says:

 

Either we're seeing yet another example of Ukraine taking something once and Russia retaking it 10 times, or the 128th really was pushed out.  Given how tiny this settlement is, it is not out of the realm of possibilities that the 128th technically no longer possesses it.  We're talking about a strip of a few hundred meters of settlement that someone would claim determines possession.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Pentagon accounting is infamous for absurd error and no significant accountability. That this issue was corrected is entirely down to the fact that appropriations for Ukraine are going to get tougher so the White House is looking carefully at any place where funding can be made more efficient.

Oh, don't I know it.  The Pentagon has been caught many times doing "creative accounting", which is one reason the paperwork for doing anything with the Pentagon is so onerous.  Theoretically those mountains of papers are supposed to keep things on the up-and-up so we don't have $1000 toilets on aircraft carriers again.  But the reality is, accountants and lawyers can work around damned near anything if the incentive is high and the oversight lax.  Since these conditions exist in the private sector (companies routinely cook their books), nobody should be surprised they are present in the public sector.

The issue now is that this has been put into a spotlight.  THEORETICALLY Congress should be forced to jump all over this, but I don't expect much from it.  The bulk of Congress doesn't want to investigate this and the extremists who might are tied up with too many culture war fights at the moment (those creating and those challenging them).  Who can use what bathroom is far more important to their reelections than their fiduciary responsibilities to their constituents.

I expect this to fade away.

Steve

[sburke]

The story of several dozen pilots who protected the skies of the capital in the first days of the full-scale war - NV reconstruction (yahoo.com)

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Who can use what bathroom is far more important to their reelections than their fiduciary responsibilities to their constituents.

I expect this to fade away.

Steve

are they going after the airlines next?  I mean geez is it a men's room or not..? I sit there through an 18 hour flight desperately holding it in while I try and figure that out! 

[Grigb]

34 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

Dmitiry already translated Prig comments about real situation. Here is confirmation that situation for RU is very difficult - from "agent" Thirteen (infamous RU soldier in Kherson-Zaporozhye area)

Quote

To date, our soldiers have suffered significant casualties; in fact, every day 6-7 [men] are 200 [KIA], today there are 4, and this is only in one VDV Regiment. Former inmates died the other day, with only six out of three hundred surviving. And if you add up the entire losses of all units, you won't believe these statistics.

The idiots who are running around with photos of the "destroyed leopard" are fundamentally unaware of everything that is going on at the front right now: the process [counter-offensive] is underway, we are losing settlements, the fighting is taking place in difficult terrain, the settlements that we defend are in the lowlands, and the enemy uses it [UKR age capturing heights to pound RU defenders with arty, so while RU reports that the UKR attack failed to capture the settlement and everything is fine, UKR controlling heights pound them in to the bloody pulp]. People will probably only start to wake up when they see more and more photos [of dead] with mourning ribbons around them, because the majority of the losses are the responsibility of the command, not the soldiers; the soldiers just carry out their jobs, often at the expense of their own lives...

[EDIT] For those who do not want to spend time listening to Prig here are main points:

• Pyatikhatka is under AFU control [is not new for us]
• The northern section of Robotne is under AFU control [is new for us]
• Urozhaine is under AFU control [is not new for us]
• Prig concludes that the UKR controls huge areas of land
• AFU unit (50-10) is located near Tormak in the Sadove village [is new for us]
• RU MOD has no control over anything [is not new for us]
• Total shortage of weaponry and ammunition (including anti-tank weapons) [is not new for us]
• AFU advances [implying successfully] toward Molochny Lyman [village on the Azov seashore south of Melitopol - if AFU reaches it, the RU grouping will be split in half]. [is new for us]
• AFU begins crossing the Dniepr - there were recon parties at Hola Prystan [a town south-west of Kherson] and now the main troops begin to arrive [is new for us]
• RU suffers casualties but no reinforcement [is not new for us]
• RU units are understaffed by 50-60% [is not new for us]
• Everything up there has been hidden from everybody. The Russian military command is fooling Putin and the Russian people [is not new for us]
• Disparaging Shoigy and the RU MOD,  concludes the Russian army is being destroyed [is not new for us]
• The UKR counter-offensive causes significant losses for RU, which is not being acknowledged [is not new for us]
• Bla-Bla-Bla [is not new for us]

Edited June 21, 2023 by Grigb

[dan/california]

30 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Either we're seeing yet another example of Ukraine taking something once and Russia retaking it 10 times, or the 128th really was pushed out.  Given how tiny this settlement is, it is not out of the realm of possibilities that the 128th technically no longer possesses it.  We're talking about a strip of a few hundred meters of settlement that someone would claim determines possession.

Steve

My faith in the reporting of the bigger mil bloggers evaporated when they were all "invited" to a public photo op with Putin, and a private look at exactly what would happen to them if they didn't do as they were told.

Even if the Russians did take it back we don't know how many of their reserves they had to commit to do it and what percentage of that force is now smoking wreckage. They got one mech company shot to bleep yesterday counter attacking in this direction. If the remnants of two more are currently getting picked apart in exposed positions, the possession of a village of no particular importance for a few more days is irrelevant.

 

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Dmitiry already translated Prig comments about real situation. Here is confirmation that situation for RU is very difficult - from "agent" Thirteen (infamous RU soldier in Kherson-Zaporozhye area)

 

More evidence that Ukraine is far more focused on grinding down Russia's forces than it is taking territory.  This is the correct strategy!  We've been saying over and over again that Russia's lines are thin and reinforcements at any scale unavailable.  Yet a relatively small number of defenders can be a real problem with all those mines and fixed emplacements.  Mines and fixed emplacements without capable defenders, though, are a different thing

So it looks like Russia is stuck.  They have to stay in their positions and there's very little it can do about the attrition.  Attempts to counter attack are just going to make it worse.  And if there's one thing the Russians are consistently good at doing is taking a bad situation and making it worse!

The big question, then, is how long will Ukraine keep this grinding up before it makes major moves forward?  We have no idea how weak Russia's forces are and how weak Ukraine wants them to be.  This means we could see the second phase of the counter offensive start at any time, either weeks, a month +, or before I hit "Submit" to this post.  My gut tells me 2 weeks max, with some interesting preludes before then.

As for the Prig rant, it seems that he is still an outlier in terms of Kremlin messaging.  He's still out there saying everything is going to Hell in a handbasket and soon, despite many of the others falling into line.  Interesting.

Steve

[The_MonkeyKing]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

More evidence that Ukraine is far more focused on grinding down Russia's forces than it is taking territory.  This is the correct strategy!  We've been saying over and over again that Russia's lines are thin and reinforcements at any scale unavailable.  Yet a relatively small number of defenders can be a real problem with all those mines and fixed emplacements.  Mines and fixed emplacements without capable defenders, though, are a different thing

So it looks like Russia is stuck.  They have to stay in their positions and there's very little it can do about the attrition.  Attempts to counter attack are just going to make it worse.  And if there's one thing the Russians are consistently good at doing is taking a bad situation and making it worse!

The big question, then, is how long will Ukraine keep this grinding up before it makes major moves forward?  We have no idea how weak Russia's forces are and how weak Ukraine wants them to be.  This means we could see the second phase of the counter offensive start at any time, either weeks, a month +, or before I hit "Submit" to this post.  My gut tells me 2 weeks max, with some interesting preludes before then.

As for the Prig rant, it seems that he is still an outlier in terms of Kremlin messaging.  He's still out there saying everything is going to Hell in a handbasket and soon, despite many of the others falling into line.  Interesting.

Steve

I think the rock/paper/scissors logic of defense and offense methods is a factor;

Now Russia has been preparing to counter Ukrainian "Blitzkrieg" with big reserves and in-depth defense. Ukraine on the other hand is now advantaged by attacking this defense with limited attrition/gains-type attacks (Ukraine gets to engage the defenders piecemeal and local superiority)

I am sure if and when Russia transitions to forward defense Ukraine transitions to something more like "Blitzkrieg".

In the winter Russia was attacking Ukrainian forward defense piecemeal with "attrition"/"limited gains". Bad matchup for the Russians.

 

illustrative matrix of how this rock/paper/scissors logic:

image source: https://youtu.be/7dWf4ueZ9qU

[billbindc]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh, don't I know it.  The Pentagon has been caught many times doing "creative accounting", which is one reason the paperwork for doing anything with the Pentagon is so onerous.  Theoretically those mountains of papers are supposed to keep things on the up-and-up so we don't have $1000 toilets on aircraft carriers again.  But the reality is, accountants and lawyers can work around damned near anything if the incentive is high and the oversight lax.  Since these conditions exist in the private sector (companies routinely cook their books), nobody should be surprised they are present in the public sector.

The issue now is that this has been put into a spotlight.  THEORETICALLY Congress should be forced to jump all over this, but I don't expect much from it.  The bulk of Congress doesn't want to investigate this and the extremists who might are tied up with too many culture war fights at the moment (those creating and those challenging them).  Who can use what bathroom is far more important to their reelections than their fiduciary responsibilities to their constituents.

I expect this to fade away.

Steve

In essence this case was the Pentagon going overboard in strict accounting. That was almost certainly in order to inure the DoD from anti-aid voices in Congress who would have jumped on any discrepancy or perceived looseness in standards. Accounting was political from the start.

[masc]

Good video of Americans and Brits using shoulder-launched AT. Beginning also shows what it sounds like to be on the receiving end of a BMP-2 and the very end shows an NLAW launch in slow-mo.

 

 

[TheVulture]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

The story of several dozen pilots who protected the skies of the capital in the first days of the full-scale war - NV reconstruction (yahoo.com)

Perhaps I'm being excessively cynical, but 3 days ago youtube channel War Archive did a video on the opening of the battle for Kyiv (linked a few pages back, and I'll link it again below), which included a lot of information on the Ukrainian air force actions in the opening days,  most of which I'd never seen before (and certainly not gathered in one place). Sounds to me like someone watched the video,  took notes and called that "research" for their article,  when War Archive was the one who put in the hours of the actual research .

 

 

 

[Bearstronaut]

Ukrainian strategy seems more reminiscent of the "bite and hold" strategy used by the Entente in the latter half of WW1 than it does of the sweeping armored maneuvers of WW2.